Mixed Medley Line-Up Speculation: Can the USA Make the Changes to Repeat as Champs?

2023 WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

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By the Numbers – Mixed 4×100 Medley Relay

• World Record: Kathleen Dawson, Adam Peaty, James Guy, Anna Hopkin – Great Britain – 3:37.58 (2021)
• World Junior Record: William Grant, Josh Matheny, Torri Huske, Gretchen Walsh – USA – 3:44.84 (2019)
• Championship Record: Matt Grevers, Lilly King, Caeleb Dressel, Simone Manuel – USA – 3:38.56 (2017)
• 2022 World Champion: Hunter Armstong, Nic Fink, Torri Huske, Claire Curzan – USA – 3:38.79

TOP 8 QUALIFIERS:

1. United States – 3:40.47
2. Australia – 3:40.87
3. Netherlands – 3:41.45
4. China – 3:42.49
5. Great Britain – 3:43.47
6. Canada – 3:44.32
7. Japan – 3:44.79
8. Germany – 3:45.34

Nothing like a -0.01 reaction time from Josh Matheny to get one’s heart racing? (As an aside, Matheny is having a great meet and still has the 200 to swim).

The USA went with the approach of Female/Male/Male/Female in the prelims. Katharine Berkoff got the USA off to a solid start. While her 59.12 was well off her personal best of 58.01 from the 2023 Trials or the 58.25, she swam for bronze; her time tonight was the fastest among female backstrokers.

Despite Matheny’s close exchange almost disqualifying the team, his split of 58.45 and Dare Rose’s 50.50 represented the fastest splits across the field in the breaststroke and butterfly. Abbey Weitzeil anchored the Americans in 52.40, which was .31 faster than her split in the silver medal-winning women’s 4×100 free relay on day 1—their time of 3:40.47 qualified them 1st for the final.

A few notes about this swim and time. It might have felt or looked slow based on the fact that  2nd 100 qualifiers were on the relay (with the exception of Rose), but the time really wasn’t slow.at all. This quartet beat the 3:43.16 the American squad of Ryan Murphy, Lilly King, Michael Andrew, and Erika Brown swam to top the prelims in 2022. This year’s prelims time actually would have won silver at last year’s meet as Australia finished runner-up in 3:41.34.

That being said, should the US change its order?

I think the answer is a qualified yes. I think Murphy leading off will help the American squad get out to a lead (or close to it), but that potential advantage has to be weighed against Torri Huske having to potentially hold off an Aussie male butterflier, or give presumably Kate Douglass enough of a lead to hold off Shayna Jack, Mollie O’Callaghan or Emma McKeon (insert Aussie sprinter here)

If Regan Smith did not have the 200 fly tonight, I would support keeping the order of F/M/M/F but changing the swimmers. Smith individually was over a second faster than Berkoff this morning; Fink should easily be at or under 58.00, and swapping in Douglass should yield at least .25 of a second over Weitzeil. Those changes alone add up to 1.75 seconds, which easily could put the US in the 3:38 high range.

But Smith does have a 200 fly tonight (and she barely made it in) as well as a 50 back, so she seems very unlikely, and if Berkoff has swum closer to 58.00 than the 59.12 that she did, then I’d consider the US using her, but I think in the final a 59 backstroke split won’t make the podium.

Final Predicated USA Roster: Murphy, Fink, Huske, Douglass

Sitting second behind the American was the Aussie quartet of Bradley Woodward (53.63), Sam Williamson (58.88), Emma McKeon (56.70), and Shayna Jack (51.66). Eschewing their preferred F/M/M/F order, the Australians opted to shake things up a little, and it seems to have worked. Their time of 3:40.87 from the prelims is faster than their silver winning time from last summer of 3:41.34 and is only .04 off the time the Aussie swam to gold at the 2022 Commonwealth Games.

While the Americans seem resigned to having to change their order, the Aussies may be relishing it. They are replacing a 53.63 backstroke leg with a 57.47 from current world record holder and 2023 gold medalist Kaylee McKeown. Switching from a man to a woman and having a five-second differentially would be fantastic; having less than a four-second differentially, as in this case, should be petrifying to the competition.

By adding four seconds in the backstroke, the Aussies should be able to drop nearly six seconds by using a male flyer. Last summer, Matthew Temple split 50.84 and 50.89 in the fly at Worlds and at Commonwealths, respectively. If he swims close to those times, then as compared to Emma McKeon’s split of 56.70, the Australian squad could gain two seconds from their prelims time.

Temple did also scratch out of the 200 fly semifinals last night, which could be precautionary or could be to be rested for this relay.

I say could because, in making these predictions, we assume that the swimmers will be performing at or near their best, but based on the results so far, I’d say the Australian team is looking very good.

The breaststroke leg for the Australians could be their Achilles heel, but Sam Williamson‘s split of 58.88 from this morning is promising. Zac Stubblety-Cook, the world record holder in the 200 breast, only split 58.92 and 59.52 last summer. This year in the individual 100, he finished 12th with a time of 59.69, so the Australian coaching staff could stick with Williamson’s speed over Stubblety-Cook’s fresh legs.

As for the freestyle leg, there is little to say. Any of the four legs of the world record-breaking women’s 4×100 free relay could be used here. In the prelims of the mixed medley, Jack’s 51.66 was faster than her split from the women’s free relay by .03. Mollie O’Callaghan led off the relay in 52.08, which if taken with a relay start, could add up to some scary fast times.

Final Predicated AUS Roster: McKeown, Stubblety-Cook/Williamson, Temple, O’Callaghan (200 dependent)/Jack

Qualifying fourth for the final tonight with a time of 3:42.49 was the team from China. China most likely won’t deviate from their M/M/F/F order as their changes are straightforward swaps. Coming into the relay are the gold medalists in both the men’s 100 breast, Qin Haiyang, and the women’s 100 fly, Zhang Yufei.

Qin’s flat start of 57.69 in the individual 100 breast was 1.31 faster than Yan Zibei’s rolling start of 59.00 from the relay, while Zhang’s winning time of 56.12 would be an improvement upon Wang Yichun’s 57.46. Those differences alone, without taking into account relay starts for Qin and Zhang, amount to 2.65 seconds, which, when subtracted from their prelims time, brings the Chinese team down into the 3:39 range.

To note, Zhang did not compete in the prelims of the 200 fly, an event that she is the reigning Olympic gold medalist in.

If Xu Jiayu can swim closer to his semifinal time of 52.42 and if Wu Qingfeng can replicate her 52.64 from the women’s 4×100 free relay instead of the 53.35 she swam this morning, the Chinese, like the American and Australias, could be within the 3:38 range.

Final Predicated CHN Roster: Xu, Qin, Zhang, Wang

The Dutch team, 3rd after prelims, is unlikely to change the line-up. They could bring in Kira Toussaint for the back instead of Maiike de Waard, but de Warard was faster than Toussaint in both the prelims and semis of the 100 back.

Entering the finals as the 5th seed are the British and, like the Dutch, are unlikely to make any game-changing moves. They could replace Jacob Peters with James Guy in the fly leg, but Peters did place 4th in the 50 fly at these championships and did finish ahead of Guy at the British Trials. Freya Anderson seems like the most likely addition to the roster if Team GB makes a switch; her 52.51 split from the 4×100 free relay would replace Anna Hopkin’s 53.39.

Of the remaining three teams, Canada, Japan, and Germany, only the Canadians seem likely to switch. Ingrid Wilm led off in 59.68, and Ruslan Gaziev anchored in 47.66. If they so choose, the Canadian team could bring in Kylie Masse, who finished 4th in the 100 back with a time of 59.09, and, Josh Liendo who qualified 7th for the men’s 100 free semifinals in a time of 48.03.