2018 U.S. Nationals Day 2 Prelims Preview

2018 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

The second morning of the 2018 Phillips 66 National Championships will feature prelims for the 200 free, 200 breast, 200 back, and 50 fly.

Women’s 200 free

Katie Ledecky likely has a 1:53 in her at some point this season – but this meet, for which she had no reason to rest, might not be it. The US Open record in the event currently stands at 1:54.40 (held by Allison Schmitt, who will also race), with Ledecky’s best time this season at 1:54.56, so that could be in reach. Also in the mix should be Mallory Comerford – who in March became the 2nd swimmer in history to break 1:40 with her NCAA-winning 1:39 in the 200 free – as well as  Simone Manuel and Leah Smith who, like Ledecky, are already locks the Pan Pacs team but have big-time potential should they choose to focus on the event. The most exciting storyline to follow here should be the returns of Schmitt, the Olympic champion, and Missy Franklin, whose lifetime best puts her behind only Schmitt and Ledecky in the field.

Men’s 200 free

Blake Pieroni threw down an unexpected 48.08 to win the 100 free Wednesday night (even he thought he would struggle in the event), so it’s clear he’s brought his A-game to Irvine. And after becoming the first man to break 1:30 in the short course race earlier this year, it would be foolish of us to put a limit on what he can do. But Pieroni would have to take out Townley Haas, whose lifetime best of 1:45.03 is well over a second faster than his own (1:46.30). Both would have to fend off Jack Conger, who’s season-best of 1:46.96 makes him the only American under 1:47 this year. Another swim of particular interest is Conor Dwyer‘s. After only racing one previous 200 free this year, Dywer dropped a 1:47.25 two weeks ago at the LA Invite, good for No. 2 in the nation. Additionally, all eyes will be on Caeleb Dressel, who did not qualify for Pan Pacs with his surprising 6th-place finish in the 100 free yesterday.

Women’s 200 Breast

100 breast world record holder Lilly King has declared this her “big 200 summer,” and today, we’ll see if her work is paying off. Her season best is 2:24.83, and lifetime 2:21.83. She’ll likely vie for the top spot with Worlds silver medalist Bethany Galat, whose season best of only 2:28.16 doesn’t reflect that her lifetime best is 2:21.77. Emily Escobedo has been faster than King this season (2:24.71), and is also a podium threat if she can match or improve on her PR of 2:23.88. It’ll also be interesting to see what Micah Sumrall can pull off; her PR from 2013 sits at 2:21.74, but has only been 2:26.21 this year and hasn’t shown signs indicating she’ll get back down to the low 2:20s.

Men’s 200 breast

This event is deep, and after narrowly failing to qualify for the 2017 World Championships team, Olympic silver medalist and American record holder Josh Prenot will take his shot at a return to the top of the U.S. 200 breast field. Tightly packed around him are Kevin Cordes (PR is 2:07.41), Nic Fink (PR is 2:08.56), and Will Licon (2:08.14), so it’ll should be a fun race. Other swimmers to look out for are 18-year-olds Daniel Roy and Reece Whitley, who went 1-2 in this event at the 2017 World Junior Championships. We’ll also get a look at Chase Kalisz, who is known for mostly his IM prowess, and broke 2:10 for the first time in May.

Women’s 200 back

Kathleen Baker is the favorite to win, but Regan Smith is a big potential threat. Smith, who started out her meet with a huge drop in the 200 fly Wednesday, took second to Baker last year, and then came within a second of her at Worlds – Baker’s best is 2:06.38, while Smith’s is 2:07.19. Behind those two are a cluster of swimmers with PRs in the 2:08-2:09 range, led by Asia Seidt in 2:08.91 (season and lifetime best). Also in that range is Lisa Bratton, the 3rd place finisher from the 2016 Olympic Trials, who ha been putting up sub-2:10 performances in championship meets consistently since 2015 – she could be on the cusp of a breakout meet. We’ll also get a look at sprint backstroker in Olivia Smoliga, entered with a 2:10.12.

Men’s 200 back

Cal teammates Ryan Murphy and Jacob Pebley have been the two best 200 backstrokers in the US. this year (1:55.46 and 1:55.85 respectively), and it’s not close. But this leaves the third spot on the podium up in the air. Behind the aforementioned duo, Austin Katz emerged as the third-fastest American in 2017, but has only been 1:59.40 this year. He was 5th at the Olympic Trials in 2016, 5th at World Trials last year, and then had a breakout of sorts in winning silver at the World University Games last August – he then became the only freshman to win an NCAA event this year in the short course version of the race. Expect him to go head-to-head with Carson Foster, the fourth and final American to break 1:58 in 2017 (1:57.87 PR, 1:59.05 this year).

Women’s 50 fly

Kelsi Dahlia, whose AR stands at 25.48, has already come close to that mark this year. At the Mesa PSS, she clocked a 25.74, and she’s still the only American under 26.0 over the last three years besides Dana Vollmer (not competing), who was 25.87 in 2016. Dahlia will seek to lower her AR, and she’d be taking out the US Open while she’s at it — it stands at 25.50 held by sprint legend Dara Torres. Behind her, it’s anyone’s race. Kendyl Stewart has the next fastest PR in the field at 25.93, and after an extended down stretch, she had a breakout 100 fly at the LA Invite two weeks ago, going her best time in years (and the No. 2 time in America this year), making her a threat to go sub-26 once again. Other challengers should include last year’s silver medalist Helen Moffitt, Amanda Kendall, and breakout NCAA flyer Erika Brown.

Men’s 50 fly

If Caeleb Dressel does actually swim this race today (it would be his second event), it’s his to lose. He’s the only American with a PR under 23 (22.76), though his season best of 23.59 trails Michael Andrew’s of 23.16. Andrew would be the clear favorite shoudl Dressel scratch. Others to watch out for should be recent NCAA grads Ryan Held, Justin Lynch, and Andrew Liang, as well as veterans Tripp Cooper and Giles Smith – and we can’t forget Tom Shields, whose 200 fly last night was the best he’s been since Trials two years ago.

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SVIRD
6 years ago

Please Dressel qualify so we can stop worrying haha. I deffo think he massively underestimated the amount of rest he would need this time around. That, or he overtrained would be the only other explanation. It’s all speculation until we see the rest of this week and the rest of the summer. Unexpectedly tense for him tho.

The 200 free should be cracking. The fanboy in me wants Dean Farris to qualify so bad lol. But after last night I think it might be Pieroni vs Haas for 1st.

tm71
6 years ago

It would make no sense for dressel to scratch the 50 fly. he has a much better chance to win that than be top four in the 200 free. At this point he needs to make the team in any event, however, he can’t swim more than 8 events at pan pacs as the meet is only four days. This meet just started so I won’t make any pronouncements but it is likely him and his coach didn’t have the right strategy. He should have picked two events that he was certain to blast a top two time to practically ensure world champs qualification so that way he doesn’t have to go full blast in all of the events in… Read more »

ERVINFORTHEWIN
6 years ago

Curious to watch Lilly’s 200 breast improvements this summer …..Indiana guys seem to be in good shape so far .

dmswim
Reply to  ERVINFORTHEWIN
6 years ago

But will she fall victim to the cover photo curse? Maybe Swimswam should start using photos of the pool instead of athletes. They keep ruining careers. 😉

Hannah
Reply to  dmswim
6 years ago

The cover photo curse is the prelims photo. This is the prelims preview

Caeleb Dressel Will Win 9 Gold Medals in Tokyo
6 years ago

Shoudl

Yozhik
6 years ago

This morning the greatest drama will be in W200free. The battle for the A final will be epic. Practically everybody who we saw yesterday in A and B final in 100 free will be there. Plus many swimmers from the fast 200 fly and 800 will try themselves in 200 free. Plus there will be very good swimmers who have 800 relay the only way to be selected.

ERVINFORTHEWIN
Reply to  Yozhik
6 years ago

Yep , one of the deepest Us field with the Men’s 100 free . Schmitt , Ledecky , Manuel , Missy , Comerford , Smith , Marsalis , Runge ? , Mc Laughlin , did i miss someone ?

ERVINFORTHEWIN
Reply to  ERVINFORTHEWIN
6 years ago

Margalis , sorry

Yozhik
Reply to  ERVINFORTHEWIN
6 years ago

You missed all youngsters, plus Drabot, Deloof etc, plus red hot swimmers like Flickenger and even Weitzeil.

ERVINFORTHEWIN
Reply to  Yozhik
6 years ago

i mentioned only the Main Big guns ….leaving the door open to many options ….

Yozhik
Reply to  ERVINFORTHEWIN
6 years ago

If you mentioned Franklin who is currently #10 then why to not mention Weitzeil who is just half of a second behind her in standing and was exceptionally good yesterday.

PK Doesn't Like His Long Name
Reply to  Yozhik
6 years ago

Because she almost certainly doesn’t have the backhalf to hang with any of these girls?

Allie
6 years ago

200 Back – “Kathleen Baker appears untouchable in this event”

What in the world would make you say that given Smith’s 200 Fly yesterday? They’re a second apart in seed time. Untouchable? Hardly. Very much within reach.

Hmmm.....
Reply to  Allie
6 years ago

That would be ‘butterfly specialist Regan Smith’…

Dane119
Reply to  Allie
6 years ago

It appears they edited that line out of the article. Good on you swimswam!

25 free champ
6 years ago

What will the dismissals be when MA wins his first national title?

Hmmm.....
Reply to  25 free champ
6 years ago

That’s it a 50 fly…

Ole 99
Reply to  25 free champ
6 years ago

That it’s a 50 of stroke and most don’t care about 50s except the 50 free since they are not Olympic events.

Gator chomp
6 years ago

I’m not sure why caeleb dressel wouldn’t swim the 50 fly? I’m sure he wants to swim at at Worlds and this is his only chance to qualify for it

Robert Gibbs
Reply to  Gator chomp
6 years ago

The other 50 fly spot at Worlds will go to the top qualifier in the 100 fly.

Caleb
Reply to  Robert Gibbs
6 years ago

True but I don’t think he’s a given to win the 100 at this point.

About Torrey Hart

Torrey Hart

Torrey is from Oakland, CA, and majored in media studies and American studies at Claremont McKenna College, where she swam distance freestyle for the Claremont-Mudd-Scripps team. Outside of SwimSwam, she has bylines at Sports Illustrated, Yahoo Sports, SB Nation, and The Student Life newspaper.

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