Six Storylines To Watch At The 2025 U.S. National Championships

2025 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

• Tuesday, June 3 – Saturday, June 7, 2025
• Indianapolis, Indiana
• Indiana University Natatorium
• LCM (50 meters)
• World Championship Selection Criteria
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Meet Central
• Psych Sheets
• Live Results

The 2025 U.S. National Championships are fast approaching, and it’s hard to overstate how critical the competition will be for American swimmers in creating momentum for the next quad with qualification on the line not only for this summer’s World Championships, but for the 2026 Pan Pacific Championships.

Of course, swimmers can post times that will be used for qualification for the 2026 Pan Pacs at four additional meets this summer, but next week’s Nationals will be the qualifier for three of those (Worlds, World University Games, World Juniors), so there’s a bit of extra pressure to perform well in Indianapolis.

In the post-Olympic year, there’s bound to be change with retirements, competitive “breaks,” and the next wave of youngsters taking the next step with the extra opportunity.

Below, find six key storylines to follow at next week’s Nationals.

ABSENCE CREATES OPPORTUNITY: WHO WILL FILL IN THE GAPS?

There are several key names missing at U.S. Nationals, including a good chunk of the 2024 Olympic team, which leads to the question: Who can step in and fill some of the holes?

On the men’s side, there are two major gaps in backstroke and breaststroke, leading to questions not only about the individual events, but the prospects for the 4×100 medley relay.

Men’s Backstroke

Ryan Murphy has been a staple on the international stage for the U.S. men for the last decade, racking up the backstroke hardware and leading the medley relay to dominant performances, but he announced last week he won’t be racing this summer.

In addition to Murphy, Hunter Armstrong, who has represented the U.S. in the 100 back alongside Murphy at every major international meet dating back to 2021, has confirmed he won’t be competing at Nationals.

Without Murphy and Armstrong, the doors may be open for Shaine Casas to claim the top spot in the 100 back after his focus has shifted more towards the 100 fly and 200 IM in recent years. He’s been as fast as 52.51 in the 100 back, done in 2022, and leads the national rankings at 53.54 this season.

Other candidates in the 100 back include Notre Dame’s Tommy Janton, who is the only other American sub-54 this season (53.82), Virginia’s Jack Aikins, who was 3rd at the 2024 Trials (52.74), and rising Texas junior Will Modglin, who broke 44 for the first time in SCY this past season (43.91) and set a best of 53.59 at last summer’s Trials.

The 200 back should feature Keaton Jones, who claimed the second Olympic spot last summer alongside Murphy in 1:54.61, while the opportunity will be there for Aikins to snag a spot after he was a close 3rd behind Jones at the 2024 Trials (1:54.78), with no one else in the field within two seconds.

In terms of the 50 back, Casas (24.23) and Quintin McCarty (24.45) have been quick so far this season, and Michael Andrew has the ability to be a factor as well.

Men’s Breaststroke

Things were looking bleak for the American men in breaststroke when Nic Fink appeared to be out of the mix this summer given his lack of activity, but the outlook is much more dire now that Matt Fallon won’t be racing either.

That leaves the U.S. without their top 50/100 breaststroker in Fink, and their best 200 breaststroker (and American Record holder) in Fallon.

Out of the top 10 performers last season for the U.S. in the men’s 100 breast, only three of them have raced in 2025: Josh Matheny, Michael Andrew and AJ Pouch.

All three were 59 last year, and Andrew has been as fast as 58.14, but the fastest American so far this season is Campbell McKean (1:00.40), so the U.S. will be looking for someone to step up and be in the 59-low vicinity to give them some hope for the medley relay in Singapore.

In the 200 breast, Matheny and Pouch were both 2:08 last year, and Matheny made the Olympic final in Paris when Fallon missed, so they’re in decent shape there, though the odds of a World Championship medal still look long.

EYES TURN TO NEXT GEN WITH LACK OF MALE STARS

It’s a well-known fact that the U.S. men only won one individual gold medal at last summer’s Paris Olympics, and outside of Bobby Finke, the Americans will have their work cut out for them to snag any additional individual titles this summer (though there are a few names who have a decent chance).

With American star power thin at the top, especially with Caeleb Dressel‘s status up in the air, this summer figures to be a big one for the next generation of male stars.

Future University of Virginia teammates Thomas Heilman and Maximus Williamson, along with distance phenom Luka Mijatovic, are the three names USA Swimming will be looking to in the future, and next week is a big step.

Headlining the trio is Heilman, who nearly won an individual medal at the 2023 World Championships in the 200 fly and was on the Olympic team last summer. Though he got some experience at the Games and won a relay medal as a prelim swimmer, Heilman didn’t make an individual final, and didn’t seriously approach his 200 fly best time from 2023 (1:53.82).

However, he did perform under the lights at the U.S. Olympic Trials, setting a monstrous PB of 50.80 in the 100 fly while winning the 200 fly (1:54.50).

While Heilman will be aiming to solidify himself as a podium contender at Worlds, the next step for Williamson will be making the World Championship team.

He exploded at the 2023 World Juniors, posting times in the 100 free (48.38), 200 free (1:47.11) and 200 IM (1:57.29) that made him a contender to make the 2024 Olympic team. Although he missed out last summer, Williamson should be in position to earn a relay berth in either freestyle event, and possibly challenge for a top-two spot in the 200 IM, with any sort of time drop.

Heilman and Williamson are both 18, while Mijatovic has only recently turned 16, and it may be early for him to be hunting down a World Championships berth.

At the 2024 Junior Pan Pacs, Mijatovic won gold in the 200 free (1:48.05 – 1:47.96 relay lead-off) and 400 free (3:49.24), and posted times in the 800 free (7:56.91) and 1500 free (15:15.95) that ranked in the top 10 domestically for the season.

So far this year, he’s already been 3:48.95 in the 400 and 7:59.09 in the 800, and though it looks like someone like Rex Maurer might take advantage of the wide open 400 free and take the vacant spot left by Luke Whitlock sitting out in the 800 free, if Mijatovic keeps improving, he’ll be in the hunt.

It’s far more likely he’ll be at World Juniors later this year, not Worlds, but seeing him continuing to progress on the senior national stage will be big as we kick off the 2028 quad.

WHO WILL BREAK THROUGH FOR THE WOMEN?

While the American men are desperate for a new star to emerge, the women are in good shape with reigning individual Olympic gold medalists Katie Ledecky, Kate Douglass and Torri Huske headlining the field this year alongside world record machine Gretchen Walsh.

However, that doesn’t mean there won’t be some young stars making the leap to the senior international team for the first time this summer.

In 2024, four teenagers made the U.S. Olympic team on the women’s side, though all four had also been on the 2023 World Championship team (Katie Grimes, Erin Gemmell, Claire Weinstein, Alex Shackell), so there was no real breakout performer (though Shackell qualified individually for the first time in the 200 fly).

This year, there’s no shortage of teenage candidates to make the jump onto the senior squad:

• Rylee Erisman, 16 – Erisman has been on fire for the past 12 months, becoming the fastest 15-year-old American last May in the 100 free (54.34) before bringing her best time all the way down to 53.75 at the Junior Pan Pacs. Now 16, she’s already been 53.78 this season, and set a new best time of 1:57.89 in the 200 free at the Fort Lauderdale Pro Swim at the beginning of May. She also boasts a 24.62 best time in the 50 free and a 59.67 PB in the 100 back. A spot on the U.S. women’s 4×100 free relay, at the very least, looks to be hers for the taking.
• Audrey Derivaux, 15 – Derivaux was a revelation at the Olympic Trials, making the final of the women’s 400 IM at 14, and she’s continued her development over the past 12 months, inching towards breaking through on the senior international squad. This season, she ranks 2nd in the country in the 200 back (2:06.68), 3rd in the 200 fly (2:06.46) and 4th in both the 200 IM (2:11.53) and 400 IM (4:41.48). The 200 back has been one of the most stacked events for the U.S. women over the last five years, but Derivaux going 2:06-mid in-season puts her right in the thick of things there, and she should challenge Alex Shackell for the second spot in the 200 fly after her 2:06 swim at the Fort Lauderdale Pro Swim.
• Jillian Cox, 19 – Cox won bronze at Short Course Worlds last December in the 1500 free, which came in the midst of a standout college season at Texas, highlighted by winning a pair of NCAA titles in the 500 and 1650 free. With Paige Madden not competing, Cox is the frontrunner to take the second U.S. spot in the 800 and 1500 free behind Ledecky, with Grimes and Weinstein (if she chooses to race the 800) among the other contenders. Cox’s Texas teammate Kate Hurst is another teenager who could make a push for a spot in the 1500.
• Leah Shackley, 18 – Shackley threw down a blistering time of 58.53 in the 100 back in mid-May, ranking her 2nd among Americans this season and #8 all-time. Katharine Berkoff is the favorite for the second spot behind world record holder Regan Smith with multiple sub-58 swims on her resume, but Shackley will keep things interesting. She’s also elite in the 100 fly, recently setting a PB of 57.92, but the U.S. is even more stacked in that event, so any finish in the top five would be a good performance.
• Charlotte Crush, 17 – Crush has similar strengths to Shackley, and as a sprint backstroker/butterfly specialist, there’s a daunting list of American women at the top of those events who figure to claim the Worlds spots. Crush will have a chance, however, coming off winning a pair of individual silvers in the 100 back and 100 fly at Junior Pan Pacs, and she ranks in the top eight domestically this season in the 100 back, 200 back, 50 fly and 100 fly.
• Kayla Han, 16 – Han is coming off setting a personal best of 4:40.58 in the 400 IM at the Fort Lauderdale Pro Swim, ranking her 3rd in the country this season. She was also 4th in the 400 free at the Olympic Trials last summer, and has been looking better in the distance free events since returning to La Mirada Armada last summer. The 400 IM is the event she could seriously challenge for a spot on the Worlds team if she can have another drop in time, depending on Katie Grimes‘ form, and in the 400, 800 and 1500 free, she should be in the thick of the top eight.
• Madi Mintenko, 17 – Mintenko placed 10th in the 200 free at the Olympic Trials and then picked up silver at Junior Pan Pacs in a personal best of 1:58.02. She’s already been 1:58.55 this season and could crack the women’s 4×200 free relay with a couple of big swims at Nationals.
• Erika Pelaez, 18 – Coming off her freshman year at NC State, Pelaez could be a factor in any number of events, depending on what type of form she brings to Indianapolis. Her 100 back best time of 59.94 stems from 2023, while she’s coming off a 2:11.13 best time in the 200 back in Fort Lauderdale. She also has some sprint free and fly ability, having made the semis of the 100 free at the 2024 Olympic Trials.
• Teagan O’Dell, 18 – O’Dell was a finalist in the 200 back at last summer’s Trials and should be in a similar position this year if she can be back under 2:08, having set a PB of 2:07.97 in the semis last year. The Cal commit has also been as fast as 59.51 in the 100 back, though that was set in 2023, and she could be a factor in the 200 free (1:59.15 PB) and 200 IM (2:11.57 PB).
• Sadie Buckley, 15 – Buckley showed incredible form at the Fort Lauderdale Pro Swim, setting a big best time of 2:10.16 in the 200 back that could result in her flirting with a finals berth at Nationals if she were to get under the 2:10 barrier. She’ll be one to watch for the World Junior roster.

LEDECKY, WALSH FLYING HIGH COMING OFF WORLD RECORDS

Katie Ledecky and Gretchen Walsh sent shockwaves around the globe at the beginning of May as both established new world records at the Pro Swim Series event in Fort Lauderdale.

For Ledecky, the wow factor came from the fact that she hadn’t touched her world record in the women’s 800 free since setting it at the Rio Olympics in 2016, and she managed to mow it down by nearly seven-tenths of a second in 8:04.12 while also putting up the 2nd-fastest swims of her career in the 400 free (3:56.81) and 1500 free (15:24.51).

Walsh, in her first long course meet of the season after concluding her historic NCAA career in March, broke her own record in the women’s 100 fly twice, culminating with a 54.60 clocking in the final that marked the first swim in history under 55 seconds.

Walsh also set a new American Record in the 50 fly (24.93), becoming the second woman ever under 25 seconds, and broke the 53-second barrier for the first time in the 100 free (52.90).

Those performances lead to the question: What will they do for an encore in Indianapolis?

Ledecky doesn’t need to taper at all and will still comfortably qualify for Worlds in her three primary events, so we may not see her as fast as she was in Fort Lauderdale. However, if she’s simply operating at a different level this year, we could see another world record go down.

While there’s a question mark regarding Ledecky and if she’ll be in contention for more world records in Indy, depending on how much she tapers, it seems pretty clear that Walsh will be.

She said she “shocked herself” with the 100 fly world records in Fort Lauderdale, which gives the indication she wasn’t expecting to be that fast, and with more rest, could easily go lower in Indianapolis.

Additionally, Walsh will need to be fully tapered, or close to it, if she wants to secure an individual spot in the 50 and 100 free, so it seems likely we’ll see another all-time mark go down in the 100 fly.

Could we also see one in the 50 fly? Sarah Sjostrom has held the world record for 11 years, setting the mark of 24.43 in 2014, and up until the Fort Lauderdale Pro Swim, she was the only swimmer sub-25 until Walsh went 24.93. A half-second is a lifetime in a 50-meter race, but few would doubt Walsh’s capabilities given her recent run of dominance.

WILL THERE BE MORE FOCUS ON STROKE 50S?

With the 50 back, breast and fly officially being added to the 2028 Olympic program, the 2025 World Championships will mark the first major international meet since the stroke 50s were added to the LA schedule in early April.

Although they’ve been contested at the World Aquatics Championships since 2001, the stroke 50s have always taken a back seat for the U.S. at domestic selection meets, as they’ve always been a low priority on qualification criteria and they would often fill in spots in those events with swimmers already on the roster (usually from winners of the 100-meter events).

That won’t be the case this year, with an updated selection criteria placing the stroke 50s on equal footing to the other events on the schedule.

It will be interesting to see how swimmers approach the change. Someone like Michael Andrew was probably already going to be racing all four 50s, so it will be business as usual for him, but a veteran like Lilly King could easily key in on the 50 fly and breast, respectively, in the post-Olympic year.

The women’s 50 back is an example of an event that could’ve seen some fireworks if Gretchen Walsh, Regan Smith and Katharine Berkoff all targeted it, but Walsh hasn’t entered, though it’s still loaded with Smith, Berkoff, Claire Curzan and Rhyan White leading the way.

WILL ANY MEN STEP UP AS GOLD MEDAL THREATS?

We ran a poll earlier this month asking readers which male swimmers have the best chance of winning individual gold in Singapore outside of Bobby Finke, and Luca Urlando and Luke Hobson were the top selections.

Urlando dropped a time of 1:52.37 in the 200 fly at the Sacramento Pro Swim, making him a contender for the world title with Olympic champion Leon Marchand having yet to race the event in long course this year and world record holder Kristof Milak having questions surrounding him regarding his training commitment.

Hobson is among the favorites to win the 200 free given his dominance at Short Course Worlds, but if David Popovici is anywhere near his best, Hobson will have his work cut out for him. If he can get under 1:44, he’ll have a chance, and that’s a time many believe Hobson is capable of at this point in his career.

This could also be the summer of Shaine Casas, who has now had more than a year of training with Bob Bowman and seems to be firing on all cylinders across the board, from the 100 and 200 free, the 100 fly, 200 IM, and even returning to elite form in the 100 back (he could also do some damage in the 50 back).

Although the odds of beating Milak in the 100 fly or Marchand in the 200 IM seem long, Casas is talented and versatile enough that he could rack up some real hardware in Singapore if he hits the right notes in Indianapolis.

Some other men could emerge as medal contenders for Worlds, but Caeleb Dressel isn’t racing, Carson Foster still has to go through Marchand in the IM events, and Jack Alexy and Chris Guiliano are staring down Pan Zhanle and Popovici, the two fastest men ever, in the 100 free.

Another name we should be watching for is Dare Rose, who, alongside Thomas Heilman, could be a medal contender in the 100 fly with the ability to go 50-point, with Dressel not expected to contest the event.

OTHER THINGS TO WATCH:

• Kate Douglass has been rumored to be bypassing the 200 IM this summer—if so, who can grab the second spot alongside Alex Walsh? Will this shift in training focus make Douglass even more lethal in the 50 free?
• Torri Huske has been firing on all cylinders seemingly for the last year and a half, and could realistically qualify individually in the 50 free, 100 free, 50 fly and 100 fly. If it didn’t coincide with the 100 fly at Worlds, she could’ve been challenging for a spot in the 200 IM as well if Douglass is out of the picture.
• Looking for a bounce-back: Claire Curzan and Bella Sims were both on the Tokyo Olympic team as youngsters, and have made training changes in recent years as both look to regain top form on the long course stage. Curzan moved to the University of Virginia after missing the 2023 Worlds team, and has thrived there, including sweeping the backstroke events at the 2024 World Championships and 2025 NCAAs, but she’s yet to be back on the big U.S. team since 2022—can she do it this year? For Sims, she moved from the Sandpipers of Nevada to the University of Florida, and now, she’s made the move to the University of Michigan (beginning this fall). Sims represented the U.S. at Worlds in 2022 and 2023 after making the Olympic team in 2021, so it will be interesting to see if she can get back on the squad this year.
• Katie Grimes used to train with Sims with the Sandpipers of Nevada, and is now with Curzan at Virginia. Grimes has consistently been elite in the 400 IM, but her distance freestyle performances have waned of late. Will she get back to top form there, or will we see her more competitive in the 200 free, for example?
• Regan Smith broke the world record in the 100 back at the 2024 Trials and seems to continue to gain momentum training under Bob Bowman, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see her on career-best form in Indianapolis with a chance to qualify individually in as many as five events.
• Can Lilly King continue her run of representing the U.S. in the 100 breast? That event in particular looks very wide open, with Douglass, Emma Weber, King, Alex Walsh, Skyler Smith and Piper Enge all realistic contenders, with Lydia Jacoby expected to be out of the mix.
• On the men’s side, some big absences loom, including Dressel, Nic Fink and Ryan Held (in the 100 free), in addition to the ones that have been confirmed. Some questions include:
  • Who will join Bobby Finke in the distance free events?
  • Can anyone step up in the 400 free?
  • Will there be any medal hopes in a backstroke event?
  • Who fills the void on breaststroke, both in the 100 and 200?
  • Who joins Alexy and Guiliano on the 4×100 free relay?