Following our “The Trials That Would Have Been” series, where we predicted how the 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials would’ve played out had the event not been cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic, this week will feature a similar series for the postponed Tokyo Olympic Games.
Pool swimming was set to kick off on the evening of July 25 local time, with finals contested the following morning. Tokyo is 13 hours ahead of Eastern time, so finals were slated to run from 9:30-11:20 pm EST. For the purpose of this exercise, each session will be published on the corresponding day those finals would’ve happened in the United States.
This will be a day-by-day trip into the hypothetical, analyzing the events that would have happened, and how they might’ve played out. Forgive me as I try to reel in my imagination and keep the times *somewhat* realistic. Feel free to add your own predictions, picks, humorous quips and more in the comments below!
It’s been a fun ride, and we’re finally at the final day of the parallel universe 2020 Olympic Games. We’ve got the 50 freestyles, medley relays and the men’s mile to cap things off.
Day 8 Finals
Men’s 50m Freestyle Final
Having busted through the 50-point barrier in 2017 (100 fly) and 47-second mark in 2019 (100 free), the 21-second threshold in the 50 free was the last one left on Caeleb Dressel‘s list.
After a career-best 21.04 in Gwangju, he wasn’t quite able to crack the barrier in what is his 11th race of the meet, clocking 21.08 to add another gold medal to the tally. Dressel now has five golds (after sitting out the heats of the men’s 4×200 free), and has a shot for six with the men’s medley relay looming.
Gold in 2012 and silver in 2016, Florent Manaudou captures a third straight Olympic medal in the men’s 50 free, taking second once again in 21.21. The result is particularly impressive given that the Frenchman had taken some time off from the sport, only resuming his training in mid-2019.
Alabama alum Kristian Gkolomeev gets Greece on the board with its first swimming medal of the Games with bronze in 21.32, out-touching Vladimir Morozov (21.35), Bruno Fratus (21.42) and Michael Andrew (21.55).
PODIUM
- Caeleb Dressel, USA, 21.08 OR
- Florent Manaudou, FRA, 21.21
- Kristian Gkolomeev, GRE, 21.32
Women’s 50m Freestyle Final
It was a long time coming, but Cate Campbell finally earns herself an individual Olympic gold medal in the same event she had won bronze in 12 years ago in Beijing.
Campbell appeared to have the best start of her career, and managed to top an incredibly close field in a time of 23.92. The swim marks the eighth time the 28-year-old Australian has been under 24 seconds.
World record holder Sarah Sjostrom (23.97), 2016 gold medalist Pernille Blume (24.06) and 100m winner Simone Manuel (24.18) were close behind in second, third and fourth. Manuel misses the podium after a long week that has seen her win four medals, along with an appearance in the 200 free final.
Great Britain’s Anna Hopkin continues to impress by placing fifth in 24.26 over Bronte Campbell (24.31) and Liu Xiang (24.34).
PODIUM
- Cate Campbell, AUS, 23.92
- Sarah Sjostrom, SWE, 23.97
- Pernille Blume, DEN, 24.06
Men’s 1500m Freestyle Final
The final of the men’s 1500 ended up being a replay of sorts of the 2018 European Championships, where the three giants — Gregorio Paltrinieri, Florian Wellbrock and Mykhailo Romanchuk — went to battle.
Paltrinieri, the 2016 gold medalist, did as he usually does, and attacks the race from the front early. The Italian sets a scorching pace, turning in 7:45.92 at the 800, but Wellbrock and Romanchuk remain within contact in 7:47s.
Romanchuk begins to make his move after the 1350m turn, breaking free from Wellbrock as he begins hunting down Paltrinieri. The Ukrainian manages to pull even with the defending champ with 50 to go and then takes off, splitting 27.09 on the way home to win the gold medal in a time of 14:35.53.
Paltrinieri finishes just over a second behind in 14:36.58 for silver, and Wellbrock comes in for the bronze in a time of 14:38.33.
American Bobby Finke has a standout swim to place fourth in 14:45.92, followed by Frenchman David Aubry (14:46.96) and Denmark’s Alexander Norgaard (14:48.63).
PODIUM
- Mykhailo Romanchuk, UKR, 14:35.53
- Gregorio Paltrinieri, ITA, 14:36.58
- Florian Wellbrock, GER, 14:38.33
Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay
Just as we saw in the two free relays, the women’s 4×100 medley had three countries clearly ahead of the others in the battle for medals.
The United States, led by the incredible backstroking of Regan Smith, were going to be tough to beat with three individual gold medalists.
Smith is off her individual swim in 56.97 but still hands over a full second lead to Lilly King, who extends it with a 1:04.28 split. Kelsi Dahlia goes 56.23 and Simone Manuel finishes off her heavy schedule with another sub-52 leg, clocking 51.91 to anchor the Americans to gold in a new world record of 3:49.39.
The Canadians had out-split the Aussies by small margins on back and breast, and then Maggie MacNeil‘s 55.61 fly swim gave them almost an eight-tenth buffer going into free.
Cate Campbell, riding high off her 50 free win, was tasked with running down Penny Oleksiak. Both swimmers had proven to be clutch on relays in the past, but Campbell especially had seemingly been able to hit 51s at will in recent years. She did so again, splitting 51.39, but Oleksiak refused to be overtaken, going 52.39 as the two teams tied for silver in 3:51.81.
PODIUM
1.United States, 3:49.39 WR
- Smith,Regan 56.97
- King,Lilly 1:04.28 (2:01.25)
- Dahlia,Kelsi 56.23 (2:57.48)
- Manuel,Simone 51.91 (3:49.39)
2.Canada, 3:51.81*
- Masse,Kylie 58.29
- Wog,Kelsey 1:05.75 (2:04.04)
- MacNeil,Maggie 55.61 (2:59.65)
- Oleksiak,Penny 52.16 (3:51.81)
2.Australia, 3:51.81*
- Atherton,Minna 58.46
- Hansen,Jessica 1:05.95 (2:04.41)
- McKeon,Emma 56.01 (3:00.42)
- Campbell,Cate 51.39 (3:51.81)
Men’s 4x100m Medley Relay
The men’s event was sure to be much more competitive than the women’s in the race for gold, as the Brits had upset the Americans in 2019 thanks to a tantalizing anchor leg from Duncan Scott (and the usual breaststroke brilliance of Adam Peaty).
It is China’s Xu Jiayu leading the charge on backstroke, touching in 51.97 to lead Russia’s Evgeny Rylov (52.26) and American Ryan Murphy (52.38).
Peaty torches the breaststroke leg in 56.54, and hands off the lead to James Guy. China sits second after Yan Zibei‘s 58.38, while the U.S. finds itself back in fifth.
It isn’t his fastest split ever, but Caeleb Dressel once again comes through in 49.41 on butterfly as the Americans take over the slight lead, up by over six-tenths of a second on Great Britain entering the freestyle.
Ryan Held, the individual 100 free bronze medalist, goes out with reckless abandon for the U.S., flipping under 22 seconds before holding a hard-charging Scott off down the stretch to win gold in 3:27.47. The time misses the 2009 world record by just under two-tenths. Scott splits 46.68 to earn GBR the silver in 3:27.81.
Russia, who received some quick back half legs from Andrei Minakov (50.49) and Vladislav Grinev (46.82), slid in for bronze in 3:28.27 over China (3:28.86), Australia (3:29.12) and Japan (3:29.96).
PODIUM
1.United States, 3:27.47 OR
- Murphy,Ryan 52.38
- Wilson,Andrew 58.69 (1:51.07)
- Dressel,Caeleb 49.41 (2:40.48)
- Held,Ryan 46.99 (3:27.47)
2.Great Britain, 3:27.81
- Greenbank,Luke 53.65
- Peaty,Adam 56.54 (1:50.19)
- Guy,James 50.94 (2:41.13)
- Scott,Duncan 46.68 (3:27.81)
3.Russia, 3:28.27
- Rylov,Evgeny 52.26
- Prigoda,Kirill 58.70 (1:50.96)
- Minakov,Andrei 50.49 (2:41.45)
- Grinev,Vladislav 46.82 (3:28.27)
FINAL MEDAL TABLE
| Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total | |
| USA | 17 | 4 | 8 | 29 |
| Australia | 4 | 7 | 8 | 19 |
| Canada | 7 | 2 | 9 | |
| Japan | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| Russia | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Italy | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Hungary | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Great Britain | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| China | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Sweden | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Lithuania | 2 | 2 | ||
| South Africa | 2 | 2 | ||
| Belarus | 1 | 1 | ||
| Netherlands | 1 | 1 | ||
| Norway | 1 | 1 | ||
| France | 1 | 1 | ||
| Greece | 1 | 1 | ||
| Denmark | 1 | 1 | ||
| Ukraine | 1 | 1 | ||
| Germany | 1 | 1 |
The medal table is not right.
Ranking should be according to golds then silver then bronze.
Not by total medal count.
Hope Cate finally wins gold in the 50 or 100m, it would be a fitting finish to a great career!
She said she would like to go on to 2024….just 3 more years!
When you earn $300,000 + in prize money alone in 19 , why give up a good thing? Can’t be more than a 20 hour work .week .
Would have been wonderful. But the next Olympics will be in 24. Paris will move to 28
Is there going to be a wrap up article summarising how everyone went? If we’re gunna do this let’s do it properly! I want more. Have enjoyed this series immensely.
Yep, I’d like to see an overview of all the medalists in a table like this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swimming_at_the_2016_Summer_Olympics#Men's_events
So what is Dressel’s total haul?
Thinking this’ll be the likely haul, can’t believe we’ll have to wait other year to find out about his 200 free Status. Of course, him hitting a 1:46 low/1:45highin a spring meet wouldn’t surprise me at all with this full year of build up, he’s a freak. Would swimming a single 1:45ish 200 free really hurt him from hitting his 49.x/20.x/46.x times? Simply being in 1:45 shape would mean he’d better hold off King Kyles back half better, so I believe he’d be able to do it and still win the 50. Anything under 21 ought to be enough to win, and the odds Proud/Flo join him there are unlikely. Of course, them being one trick ponies is something to… Read more »
Yeah agreed. 7 if he’s on the 4×2
Any thoughts on the medal table? USA/AUS 48 medals to the Rest of the world 58 medals? Canada zero golds, Japan just two? USA about the same as Rio (accounting for 3 extra events) AUS nearly doubling?JAP much the same as Rio at home?
What gold were you thinking Canada would get???
They don’t have any “locks” for gold but a few of those minor medals have legit potential for “upgrade”. Cases in point being MacNeill (arguably joint favourite in W100FLY) & both female freestyle relays. It would probably need AUS being minus 1 Campbell in 4X100 but 4X200 could spring a surprise should either of USA/AUS falter.
Agree here.
Masse pre-Regan Smith would have been the favorite.
MacNeil was even faster in NCAA this year until March. But best to put her co-fav with Sarah.
Ruck had a huge international upswing in 2018 but somewhat stalled in the summer of ’19. Only 19 and first yr Stanford so no long term worries there. However with 2018 Ruck splits both the 4*1 and 4*2 relays last summer would have been 3 way race under the flags.
🇨🇦 Relays haven’t ‘won’ yet over the big 2, but the makeup of their team which until this spring were basically all teenagers shows how much more upside they still have. Penny will be hard pressed to repeat… Read more »
I sincerely doubt the USA will falter in the women’s 4 x 100 meter freestyle relay not with the emergence of Erika Brown in the women’s 100 meter freestyle.
You think USA are favourites in that relay ? Australia are the favourites .( 4×100 free women’s ) and world record holders .
Agreed. And I think the US and Canada will push them for at least 390m 😉
The response is with regard to USA versus CAN in the women’s 4 x 100 meter freestyle relay. Way too many ifs for the USA to catch AUS. If Mallory Comerford matches her leadoff time at the 2017 FINA World Aquatics Championships. If Manuel and Weitzeil match the relay splits from the 2019 FINA World Aquatics Championships. If Erika Brown can split no worse than 53:00. The ifs will result in another silver medal in the women’s 4 x 100 meter freestyle for the USA.
🇨🇦 can equal that with the emergence of Maggie, 53 low anchoring in 2019 inbetween Cate and Simone, no small feet in her first international final for 🇨🇦! And she only got faster this past year during the NCAA season…
I don’t buy the team USA totals. The men will be lucky to take ten medals. Ryan Murphy needs to replicate his 2016 Rio Olympics form. Chase Kalisz needs to replicate his 2017 World Championships form.
50 FR
100 FR
100 BK ?
200 BK
100 FL
200 IM ?
400 IM
4 x 100 meter freestyle relay
4 x 200 meter freestyle relay ?
4 x 100 meter medley relay
Furthermore, I don’t see the men doubling up on any event unlike the 2017 FINA World Aquatics Championships.
The USA women should remain consistent from the performances at the 2012 London Olympics and the 2016 Rio Olympics:
2012
8 G, 3 S, 3 B
2016
8 G, 4 S, 4 B
The aforementioned lists includes the relays but does not take into account open water.
The USA men look to be a disaster when compared to the performances at the 2012 London Olympics and the 2016 Rio Olympics.
Upvote: 20.99 or faster
Downvote: 21.00+
I wish I could upvote 100 times. He is definitely going under 21. I mean he has the capability to go 20.6 fully rested. And he swims well when he is tired. Ex. He swam 39.9 when he was exhausted at the end of NCAAs.
There’s no way Manuel doesn’t medal in the 50 free…
The 50m is too flukey to say ‘no way’…..
Sure there is. If she gets 4th or worse she won’t medal.