Previewing the Potential Mixed Relays Line-Ups for the United States in Fukuoka

2023 WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

• July 23 to 30, 2023
• Fukuoka, Japan
• Marine Messe Fukuoka
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• Preview Index
• Entry Book

Despite having separate roster limits and separate coaching staffs, the US Worlds team has three overlaps: 1) a shared 12 relay-only swimmer cap 2) the 4×100 Mixed Free Relay and 3) the 4×100 Mixed Medley Relay.

To quickly address the first point. The US team did not run into the World Aquatics mandated cap of a max of 12 relay-only swimmers as there were enough doubles to allow for all of the relay-only swimmers to make the team, this year. In 2021, Ryan Held was not named to the Olympic team, despite the men’s roster being under 26 swimmers, due to being the 13th-ranked relay-only swimmer, when combining both the women’s and men’s teams.  

Now to the crux of the article the Mixed Relays. First added to the World’s long course program in 2015, the mixed relays have a mixed opinion among swimming fans. Some may see them as just a way to add more medals or find them “gimmicks’ but others see them as exciting. With so many possible combinations of order, especially in the medley, lead changes occur so often making for some great and interesting viewing, for example in 2019, Caeleb Dressel raced Emma McKeon in the fly leg and Lilly King did her best trying to hold off the likes of Adam Peaty and Arno Kamminga in the breast. 

Before we dive in it is important to note that per the World Aquatics Competition Regulations, any swimmer in an individual event can be entered into any relay and relay-only swimmers need only the ‘B’ cut to swim in a relay. It should be noted that, unlike the Olympic Games, these competition regulations make no mention of requiring relay-only athletes to compete. 

So let’s see who Carol Capitani and Bob Bowman, the women’s and men’s team head coaches, could pick to be in these events for the United States. For the purpose of this article, we will be looking at the best potential roster for finals only.

4×100 Mixed Free Relay

• World Record: Jack Cartwright, Kyle Chalmers, Madison Wilson, Mollie O’Callaghan, Australia – 3:19.38 (2022)
• American Record: Caeleb Dressel, Zach Apple, Mallory Commerford, Simone Manuel – 3:19.40 (2019)

The mixed free relay falls on the 7th day of the competition. Other sprint events contested on that day are the finals of the women’s 50 fly and the semis of the women’s 50 free. For the men, the conflicts, in sprinting events, are with the finals of the 50 free, the semis of the 50 back, and the finals of the 100 fly. 

Last year, Torri Huske swam third splitting a 52.60, after having already placed 6th in the finals of the 50 fly and and 7th in the semis of the 50 free. Claire Curzan was the other female relay swimmer, splitting 52.84 but she did not make the team this year. To note, Huske and Curzan were the entrants in the 100 free. 

This year’s expected entrants in the 100 free are Kate Douglass and Abbey Weitzeil, who swam 52.57 and 53.11 at trials, respectively. Also potentially in the mix are Gretchen Walsh (53.14) and Olivia Smoligia (53.28) 

For the men, Ryan Held led off in a 47.93 last year and swimming second was Brooks Curry who split 47.72. Held qualified for the team via his 5th place finish in the 100 free (48.08) but his prelims time may give him the nod over those above him.

From the data above there are three paths to take each with its own ups and downs. 

• Team based on finish in finals at trials
• Team based on season best
• Team based on lifetime best

Using just flat starts the the team of Held, Alexy, Douglass, and Weitzel/Huske have an aggregate best time of 3:20.63 which is already nearly half a second faster than last year’s relay’s time of 3:21.09, a relay that finished 3rd behind Australia (3:19.38) and Canada (3:20.61).

4×100 Mixed Medley Relay

• World Record: Kathleen Dawson, Adam Peaty, James Guy, Anna Hopkin, Great Britain – 3:37.58 (2021)
• American Record: Matt Grevers, Lilly King, Caeleb Dressel, Simone Manuel – 3:38.56 (2017)

The mixed medley relay falls on the fourth day of competition. The 4th evening is relatively busy with the semis of men’s 100 free, the finals of the 50 breast, the semis of the 200 IM and the finals of the 800 free and 200 fly. On the women’s side, also scheduled, are the finals of the 200 free and the semis of the 50 back and 200 fly. 

On the men’s side, there is no overlap between backstroke events and the relay and for the women, there is no overlap between the relay and any breaststroke events. So one might think this could work well as it gets the most rested athletes. 

Using flat starts and lifetime bests this quartet is just off the 3:38.79 that Armstrong, Nic Fink, Torri Huske, and Claire Curzan swam to win last year. 

Author’s Aside: Braden would like it known that there are several issues with using a female swimmer on the breaststroke leg of the event. At the 2020 Tokyo Summer Games, the United States was the only team to use a female breaststroker and a male freestyler and wound up placing 5th in a 3:40.58. Falling behind in the breaststroke puts further stress on the last two legs as they need to play catch-up in addition to having to swim through the wakes of the swimmers ahead of them.

Math also supports this supposition. The time difference between women’s and men’s A cuts in the 100s is smallest in the 100 fly and 100 free, which means if you had 8 swimmers( 4 men and 4 women) whose 100 times equaled the A cut their fastest cumulative time would be from a M/M/F/F order. 

On the other hand, I’d counter that the fastest time swum at a World Championships is still the 3:38.56 swum by Matt Grevers, Lilly King, Caeleb Dressel, and Simone Manual. An American Record that was not surpassed by the 2019 gold-winning team of Australians Mitch Larkin, Matthew Wilson, Emma McKeon, and Cate Campbell who split a 51.10 in the free (3:39.10) nor by the US’s winning team from last year (as listed above).

When you have the versatility that really only the United States possesses across the strokes, I believe it matters much more what form the swimmers are in as compared to the prevailing strategy. That being said only two of the fastest ten times in the event have used a female breaststroker, the US at the 2017 Worlds and the US at the 2020 Tokyo Summer Games.  

 If we follow that pattern of M/M/F/F the resulting US relay would be:

Using the M/M/F/F order with flat start lifetime bests yields a time of 3:38.55 nearly a second faster than the ‘rested’ squad and also faster than last year’s winning time of 3:38.79.

Technically Ryan Murphy’s personal best is .04 faster than Armstrong’s 1st place time at the 2023 trials. With the 100-back finals the day before, Capitani and Bowman will most likely go with whoever places better in the individual event.

The only other relay combination using the top finishers at trials to get under 3:39 is the team of Regan Smith, Nic Fink, Torri Huske, and Ryan Held, whose aggregate lifetime bests equal 3:38.96. But using Smith seems highly improbable as she is likely swimming both the semis of the 50 back and 200 fly that evening and while Ryan Held‘s lifetime best is the fastest amongst the men, he did not qualify for the 100 individually so may not be awarded the relay spot.

Shaine Casas has a faster lifetime best than Rose in the 100 fly, but like Smith, Casas runs into conflict with a potential double swim with the semis of the 200 IM.