Breaking Down Who Could Swim the Stroke 50s for Team USA at 2023 World Championships

There have been several articles, an in-depth video segment, and an innumerable amount of comments about the outcome of the 2023 U.S. National Championships in regards to the outcome of the Non-Olympic Events (50s of stroke) and their selection procedure.

That being said, as the days go by and we approach the departure of the team for Worlds, our attention turns to some events that have yet to be filled (officially), the relays, and the empty roster spots in the 50s of stroke.

Look out for separate articles in the lead-up to Worlds about possible US relay configurations, especially the contentious mixed relays, but let us turn our attention to the 50s of stroke.

Selection Procedures

Per the USA Swimming Athlete Selection Procedures for the 2023 World Aquatics Championships selection for the Non-Olympic Events is rather convoluted but we will go through all the relevant factors to figure out who could swim the 50s of stroke.

1. 1st Roster Spot (in order of precedence)
   1. The winner of the Non-Olympic Event, presuming there is roster space and they have met at least the ‘B’ cut. (Priority 5)
   2. The winner of the corresponding event, ie the 100 fly for 50 fly, (Priority 1), if the roster spot was not filled via the process above and they have met at least the ‘B’ cut

1. 2nd Roster Spot –  (in order of precedence)
   1. The winner of the corresponding event, ie the 100 fly for 50 fly, (Priority 1), so long as 1.a. (winner of 50) and the winner of the 100 both have the ‘A’ cut.
   2. The runner-up in the corresponding event, ie the 100 fly for 50 fly, (Priority 2), if the roster spot was not filled via the process above and they and the winner of the 100 have both met at least the ‘A’ cut

Essentially, if the winner of the 50 makes the 26 swimmer roster, they take the 1st spot. The 2nd spot is given to the winner of the corresponding 100. The selection procedure makes no clear distinction for a situation if the winner of the 50 is one in the same with the winner of the 100. If that were the case then the two spots should go to the top two swimmers in the 100, provided they both have the ‘A’ standard.

If the winner of the 50 does not make the team then the 1st spot is offered to the winner of the 100 and the 2nd spot goes to the runner-up in the 100, provided they both have an ‘A’ cut in the 50.

Women

The women’s team did their job to make the selection for the 2nd spot in the 50s of back, breast, and fly very easy. The 26-swimmer roster cap did not end up factoring into the equation as all of the 50 winners made the team via higher Priorities and the women’s team had enough ‘doubles’ to avoid hitting the cap.

Back: Katharine Berkoff and Regan Smith

Breast: Lilly King and Lydia Jacoby

Fly:  Gretchen Walsh and Torri Huske

In the backstroke, Berkoff and Smith should be the entrants in the 50. Berkoff’s 27.13 is well under the ‘A’ standard allowing two swimmers to enter. Smith, via her 1st place finish in the 100, should get the nod as her 50 time of 27.14 is also under the ‘A’ cut

The same case is true in the fly. Walsh, as the winner of the 50, has the 1st roster spot and Huske, as the winner of the 100, has the first opportunity to fill the 2nd roster spot.  Walsh’s 25.11 and Huske’s 25.33 in the 50 fly are both under the ‘A’ standard.

In the breaststroke, King winning both events slightly alters the qualification process. Instead of it going to the winner of the 50 and fastest in the 100, it falls to the next fastest swimmer in the 100, which would be Jacoby. Jacoby also finished 2nd in the 50 in 29.81, and therefore with both swimmers under the A cut, they should be the two entrants.

Men

Not looking to drag up the discussion about the selection procedure and its differences from last year, let us focus on the possible roster entrants that the US can field. Due to hitting the 26-swimmer roster cap, a Priority 5 swimmer, Michael Andrew, was left off the roster.

Back: Justin Ress and Hunter Armstrong

Breast: Nic Fink

Fly:  Dare Rose and ??

Tackling the easy one first, both Ress and Armstrong should be able to attempt to defend their top podium positions from last year’s 50 back. Ress, by nature of his victory in the 50 and being under the ‘A” standard, allows Armstrong to enter the event by way of winning the 100 and having a 50 time under the ‘A’ standard (24.16).

In the breaststroke, Nic Fink as the winner of the 50 gets the 1st roster spot. By winning the 100 he would also be afforded the 2nd spot, but that is against the rules. Therefore per the selection procedure, we look to the 2nd place finisher in the 100, Josh Matheny. Matheny did not swim the 50 at the National Championships. That being said, the ‘A’ standard in the 50 needs to only be surpassed in the qualifying period dating from 3/1/2022 to 6/11/23. However, he only has a personal best of 27.85 which is not under the ‘A’ standard of 27.33, therefore making him ineligible to swim the 50.

In the fly, things go quite awry. The winner of the 50, Michael Andrew, while under the ‘A’ standard did not make the team. As noted above if this were the case the selection procedure details that the top two finishers in the corresponding 100 could fill the 50. The 100 winner, Dare Rose, swam a 23.20 in the 50, thus getting him under the ‘A’ standard. The runner-up in the 100, Thomas Heilman, also did not swim the 50 and his personal best, 24.05, is a split from his silver medal in the 100. Like Matheny, this also makes him ineligible to swim the 50.

The “Replacement Process”

Under the entire selection process is a small paragraph that may help find a 2nd entrant. It reads,

If there is a vacancy in an Individual Non-Olympic Event that arises on or after 11:59 p.m. MT on July 2, 2023, the replacement process set forth in Section 4 will be used to fill the vacancy in that Individual Non-Olympic Event

If we head to Section 4 “Replacement of Athletes” and scroll down to 4.1.1. “Adjustments to the Team and Events from the time of Selection to the Team (on or before TBD through the final nomination deadline:” we find the sub section  4.1.1 (d) titled  “Filling Non-Olympic Events” which reads,

If an Available Swimmer under USA Entry Opportunities #1 or #2 in Section 1.3.9 must be replaced, the next opportunity will be given to the next fastest Available Swimmer already on the team who has qualified for the Team in the corresponding Individual Olympic Event listed in Section 1.3.9 at the Qualifying Competition, provided both Available Swimmer already swimming the Individual Non-Olympic Event and the replacement swimmer have met the “A” Time Standard. 

The use of the word ‘replaced’ adds some confusion as, in the case of the Men’s 50 breast and fly, no swimmer is being replaced but rather a vacancy is being filled.

Using this rule, let us see if we can find some other entrants.

Zero, Zip, Nada. Fink, Matheny, Rose, and Heilman are the only swimmers who have qualified for the team in the corresponding event.

A Last Hope

Yet, hope is not lost. Further down in the sub-section, 4.1.2 (a), there may be a light at the end of the tunnel. It reads,

After the Final nomination deadline, no swimmers will be added to the Team, and the Available Swimmer already on the Team who has recorded the fastest time in a vacant Event during the period from March 1, 2022, through and including June 11, 2023, or at the Qualifying Competition, will serve as the replacement in that Event; provided, however, that the replacement must agree, after consulting with the Managing Director, National Team and Head Coach, to compete in the vacant Event. If the replacement does not agree to swim in the vacant Event, then this process will repeat until the vacant Event is filled

Although the provision makes no mention of the ‘A’ standard, it would be safe to assume it would be necessary to fill the second roster spot.

In the 50 breaststroke, no swimmer on the team, besides Fink, has been under the ‘A’ cut. Therefore he will remain the only entrant. The fly, however, is a different case.

Ryan Held swam a 23.41 in the prelims of the 50 fly at the 2023 National Championships, which is under the ‘A’ standard and could give him a second individual swim. In the final, he placed 6th in 23.59.

However, in qualifying to swim the 50 breast last year, USA Swimming used a 100 split to give Annie Lazor the opportunity to swim the event. If that were to be applied to the Men’s 50 fly, Shaine Casas could be the 2nd entrant behind Rose. Casas split 23.31 on the way to the 100-fly national title (50.40) at last summer’s National Championships.

While everyone’s focus was turned to the final results from the 2023 National Championships, Matt King quietly swam a 23.47 50 fly in time trials, which occurred between sessions. Thank you commentator “Swims” for pointing out this out.  King’s time is slower than both Held’s and Casas’s, so they would both need to pass on swimming it for King to get a chance.

The heats and semi-finals of the 50 fly are on day 1 with the final occurring the day after. Held and King technically could have a conflict as the prelims and finals of the 4×100 free relay are also on the first day. Held did only place 5th at trials in the 1oo free (48.08) but his prelims time of 47.63 would have placed 1st in the finals, so he has a very high chance of being on the relay at night. King placed 3rd in the finals (47.99) and could also be in contention for swimming the relay at finals.

All of this is speculative until USA Swimming publishes an updated roster. Once they do we will know how the selection of the 50s pans out. For all we know several swimmers could pass on the 50s in favor of a greater opportunity to place higher in Olympic Events or focus on qualifying the relays for the Olympics.