2019 FINA WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS
- All sports: Friday, July 12 – Sunday, July 28, 2019
- Pool swimming: Sunday, July 21 – Sunday, July 28, 2019
- The Nambu University Municipal Aquatics Center, Gwangju, Korea
- Meet site
- FinaTV Live Stream
- Live results
Last week we saw full odds released for the men’s 100 freestyle at the World Championships in Gwangju, and now there are five more events available on certain books (Betway Sports being among them).
Lines are out for the men’s 50 breast and 50 fly, the women’s 50 free and 50 fly, and the women’s 100 back. The men’s 800 free is also listed but there are no odds available as of Monday (in addition to these head-to-head matchups).
Women’s 50 Butterfly
Unsurprisingly, the biggest favorite to come out thus far (not including Katie Ledecky head-to-head with Ariarne Titmus in the women’s 800 free) is Sarah Sjostrom, who comes in at -1000 (1.10 decimal odds) in the women’s 50 fly.
Sjostrom has been the fastest swimmer in the world in each of the past six years (including 2019) and owns the 14 fastest swims in history.
Check out the odds below:
| Swimmer | American Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Odds | Profit from $100 bet |
| Sarah Sjostrom | -1000 | 1.10 | 90.9% | $10 |
| Rikako Ikee | +800 | 9.00 | 11.1% | $800 |
| Ranomi Kromowidjojo | +1200 | 13.00 | 7.7% | $1,200 |
| Farida Osman | +1400 | 15.00 | 6.7% | $1,400 |
| Jeanette Ottesen | +4000 | 41.00 | 2.4% | $4,000 |
| Melanie Henique | +4000 | 41.00 | 2.4% | $4,000 |
| Emilie Beckmann | +5000 | 51.00 | 2.0% | $5,000 |
| Holly Barratt | +5000 | 51.00 | 2.0% | $5,000 |
| Marie Wattel | +5000 | 51.00 | 2.0% | $5,000 |
| Hukina Hirayama | +8000 | 81.00 | 1.2% | $8,000 |
| Kimberly Buys | +8000 | 81.00 | 1.2% | $8,000 |
| Louise Hansson | +8000 | 81.00 | 1.2% | $8,000 |
| Anastasiya Shkurdai | +10000 | 101.00 | 1.0% | $10,000 |
| Aliena Schmidtke | +15000 | 151.00 | 0.7% | $15,000 |
| Anna Dowgiert | +15000 | 151.00 | 0.7% | $15,000 |
Pick: The odds are insanely high, but picking anyone other than Sjostrom is just wrong. Put her in a parlay.
Interestingly enough, you can get slightly better odds (-833) taking Sjostrom head-to-head over Ranomi Kromowidjojo:
Women’s 50 Butterfly H2H
| Swimmer | American Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Odds | Profit from $100 bet |
| Sarah Sjostrom | -833 | 1.12 | 89.3% | $12 |
| Ranomi Kromowidjojo | +425 | 5.25 | 19.0% | $425 |
Women’s 50 Freestyle
Sjostrom also opened as -118 favorite in the women’s 50 free, facing a much more competitive field that includes Pernille Blume and Cate Campbell who were 23.75 and 23.78 respectively last year (with Sjostrom leading the world ranks at 23.74).
| Swimmer | American Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Odds | Profit from $100 bet |
| Sarah Sjostrom | -118 | 1.85 | 54.1% | $85 |
| Cate Campbell | +300 | 4.00 | 25.0% | $300 |
| Pernille Blume | +300 | 4.00 | 25.0% | $300 |
| Ranomi Kromowidjojo | +1000 | 11.00 | 9.1% | $1,000 |
| Simone Manuel | +1000 | 11.00 | 9.1% | $1,000 |
| Bronte Campbell | +1200 | 13.00 | 7.7% | $1,200 |
| Taylor Ruck | +2500 | 26.00 | 3.8% | $2,500 |
| Maria Kameneva | +5000 | 51.00 | 2.0% | $5,000 |
| Aliaksandra Herasimenia | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Etiene Medeiros | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Xiang Liu | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Femke Heemskerk | +8000 | 81.00 | 1.2% | $8,000 |
| Freya Anderson | +8000 | 81.00 | 1.2% | $8,000 |
| Anna Santamans | +15000 | 151.00 | 0.7% | $15,000 |
| Arina Surkova | +15000 | 151.00 | 0.7% | $15,000 |
| Charlotte Bonnet | +15000 | 151.00 | 0.7% | $15,000 |
| Anna Hopkin | +20000 | 201.00 | 0.5% | $20,000 |
| Katarzyna Wasick | +20000 | 201.00 | 0.5% | $20,000 |
| Qingfeng Wu | +30000 | 301.00 | 0.3% | $30,000 |
Pick: This one should be really close, and based on times last year, taking a gamble on either Campbell or Blume makes sense given the odds. We’ll go with Cate.
Men’s 50 Breaststroke
Adam Peaty comes in just behind Sjostrom’s 50 fly odds in the men’s 50 breast, with the line sitting at -714.
| Swimmer | American Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Odds | Profit from $100 bet |
| Adam Peaty | -714 | 1.14 | 87.7% | $14 |
| Felipe Lima | +450 | 5.50 | 18.2% | $450 |
| Joao Gomes | +600 | 7.00 | 14.3% | $600 |
| Fabio Scozzoli | +2500 | 26.00 | 3.8% | $2,500 |
| Ilya Shymanovich | +3300 | 34.00 | 2.9% | $3,300 |
| Caba Siladi | +5000 | 51.00 | 2.0% | $5,000 |
| Kirill Prigoda | +5000 | 51.00 | 2.0% | $5,000 |
| Michael Andrew | +5000 | 51.00 | 2.0% | $5,000 |
| Michael Houlie | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Nicolo Martinenghi | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Ross Murdoch | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Yasuhiro Koseki | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Peter Stevens | +8000 | 81.00 | 1.2% | $8,000 |
| Yan Zibei | +8000 | 81.00 | 1.2% | $8,000 |
| Andrey Nikolaev | +10000 | 101.00 | 1.0% | $10,000 |
| Ties Elzerman | +25000 | 251.00 | 0.4% | $25,000 |
| Fabian Schwingenschloegl | +50000 | 501.00 | 0.2% | $50,000 |
| Matthew Wilson | +50000 | 501.00 | 0.2% | $50,000 |
| Tobias Bjerg | +50000 | 501.00 | 0.2% | $50,000 |
| Zach Stubblety-Cook | +50000 | 501.00 | 0.2% | $50,000 |
Pick: Given how fast the Brazilians have been this year, taking Peaty is risky at that line. Take a stab on Lima, who is the fastest swimmer in the world this year after going 26.33 on the Mare Nostrum Tour.
Women’s 100 Backstroke
The women’s 100 back is more complicated than the races with the massive favorites. Defending World Champ Kylie Masse enters at -152, having also won the Commonwealth and Pan Pac titles last year (and holding the top time in the world this year).
Kathleen Baker, who set the world record last summer, has dealt with injury recently and thus comes as a 3-to-1 underdog.
| Swimmer | American Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Odds | Profit from $100 bet |
| Kylie Masse | -152 | 1.66 | 60.2% | $66 |
| Kathleen Baker | +300 | 4.00 | 25.0% | $300 |
| Olivia Smoliga | +400 | 5.00 | 20.0% | $400 |
| Taylor Ruck | +800 | 9.00 | 11.1% | $800 |
| Katinka Hosszu | +1200 | 13.00 | 7.7% | $1,200 |
| Anastasia Fesikova | +4000 | 41.00 | 2.4% | $4,000 |
| Kaylee McKeown | +4000 | 41.00 | 2.4% | $4,000 |
| Margherita Panziera | +5000 | 51.00 | 2.0% | $5,000 |
| Georgia Davies | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Mie Nielsen | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Minna Atherton | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Fu Yuanhui | +8000 | 81.00 | 1.2% | $8,000 |
| Daria Vaskina | +10000 | 101.00 | 1.0% | $10,000 |
| Kira Toussaint | +15000 | 151.00 | 0.7% | $15,000 |
| Jessica Fullalove | +25000 | 251.00 | 0.4% | $25,000 |
| Laura Riedemann | +25000 | 251.00 | 0.4% | $25,000 |
| Natsumi Sakai | +25000 | 251.00 | 0.4% | $25,000 |
| Simona Kubova | +25000 | 251.00 | 0.4% | $25,000 |
Pick: If Baker hadn’t been injured in May, she’d be the pick at those odds. But Masse has been so good and so consistent she’s the selection. Olivia Smoliga and Taylor Ruck are both interesting as well in those spots.
Men’s 50 Fly
The lone event with no one at -100 or lower is the men’s 50 fly, where the favorite is world record holder Andrii Govorov at +120.
| Swimmer | American Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Odds | Profit from $100 bet |
| Andrii Govorov | +120 | 2.20 | 45.5% | $120 |
| Nicholas Santos | +275 | 3.75 | 26.7% | $275 |
| Caeleb Dressel | +450 | 5.50 | 18.2% | $450 |
| Oleg Kostin | +550 | 6.50 | 15.4% | $550 |
| Ben Proud | +600 | 7.00 | 14.3% | $600 |
| Joseph Schooling | +1800 | 19.00 | 5.3% | $1,800 |
| Michael Andrew | +4000 | 41.00 | 2.4% | $4,000 |
| Andrey Zhilkin | +5000 | 51.00 | 2.0% | $5,000 |
| Mehdy Metella | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Piero Codia | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Szebasztian Szabo | +6600 | 67.00 | 1.5% | $6,600 |
| Konrad Czerniak | +8000 | 81.00 | 1.2% | $8,000 |
| Kristian Gkolomeev | +8000 | 81.00 | 1.2% | $8,000 |
| Luka Erakovic | +12500 | 126.00 | 0.8% | $12,500 |
| Andrea Vergani | +15000 | 151.00 | 0.7% | $15,000 |
| Kengo Ida | +20000 | 201.00 | 0.5% | $20,000 |
| Mathys Goosen | +20000 | 201.00 | 0.5% | $20,000 |
| Nyls Korstanje | +20000 | 201.00 | 0.5% | $20,000 |
| Yang William Xu | +20000 | 201.00 | 0.5% | $20,000 |
| Damian Wierling | +30000 | 301.00 | 0.3% | $30,000 |
| Marius Kusch | +30000 | 301.00 | 0.3% | $30,000 |
Pick: Nicholas Santos was a last minute invite to the competition, and is 39 years old, but has been hot all year and could very well take the crown. Caeleb Dressel and defending champion Ben Proud are interesting bets as well, and Szebasztian Szabo is sitting at +6600 after cracking 23 seconds this year. Santos is the pick, however.
Anyone know if beltway is a scam? I’ve heard they don’t payout….
Can you bet AGAINST a certain swimmer?
Doesn’t appear as such, and, generally, they have ‘out’ clauses when swimmers don’t compete.
You can if you “lay” (i.e. take bets on) a swimmer on a betting exchange (Betfair being my one of choice – others are available). Anyone wishing to bet on the swimming should give them an email nudge to put some markets up (I have done so), as they often only do so once they realize it’s started.
Kind of unrelated, but I was rewatching Sjostrom’s 50 fly WR and I have to say that it looks like there was a current in that pool. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDK5bDWdSzk
I would put a little money on someone with long odds in the 50 fly for fun, but overall it just seems dumb
I thought I read somewhere that there was a strong wind at her back for the race.
I would roll the dice on Smoliga. good odds, plus had PB only couple months ago in 100 back….could be due for a nice drop.
BTW, kudos to James and anyone else who worked on this OP including the chart. Normally I see mistakes galore whenever betting odds are listed and interpreted. There was one guy on a major football site recently who insisted that +1200 meant 1200/1 odds. Normally I laugh and have to correct a few things. Not here.
Would be interesting if they started handicapping some of these events, offering something like Sjostrom winning by 0.25 in the 50 fly at -110 so the odds aren’t so steep in the events with heavy favorites.
No Dahlia in the 50 fly?
Yes, very strange. Oleksiak is the other name that jumped out at me that was missing there.
Dressel 50 fly is the best bet here in my opinion
Its his least important event and he is going against two specialist. If you could convince me Govorov is off his game then I could see the bet
I was actually thinking Ben Proud at +600 looked even better for that race. Obviously with Proud there is always the risk of a false start in addition to the usual chance that he simply gets outraced, but I think his odds are at least a bit better than the bookmakers are giving him,