Additional Betting Odds Released For Worlds; Sjostrom -1000 In 50 Fly

2019 FINA WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

  • All sports: Friday, July 12 – Sunday, July 28, 2019
  • Pool swimming: Sunday, July 21 – Sunday, July 28, 2019
  • The Nambu University Municipal Aquatics Center, Gwangju, Korea
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Last week we saw full odds released for the men’s 100 freestyle at the World Championships in Gwangju, and now there are five more events available on certain books (Betway Sports being among them).

Lines are out for the men’s 50 breast and 50 fly, the women’s 50 free and 50 fly, and the women’s 100 back. The men’s 800 free is also listed but there are no odds available as of Monday (in addition to these head-to-head matchups).

Women’s 50 Butterfly

Unsurprisingly, the biggest favorite to come out thus far (not including Katie Ledecky head-to-head with Ariarne Titmus in the women’s 800 free) is Sarah Sjostrom, who comes in at -1000 (1.10 decimal odds) in the women’s 50 fly.

Sjostrom has been the fastest swimmer in the world in each of the past six years (including 2019) and owns the 14 fastest swims in history.

Check out the odds below:

Swimmer American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Odds Profit from $100 bet
Sarah Sjostrom -1000 1.10 90.9% $10
Rikako Ikee +800 9.00 11.1% $800
Ranomi Kromowidjojo +1200 13.00 7.7% $1,200
Farida Osman +1400 15.00 6.7% $1,400
Jeanette Ottesen +4000 41.00 2.4% $4,000
Melanie Henique +4000 41.00 2.4% $4,000
Emilie Beckmann +5000 51.00 2.0% $5,000
Holly Barratt +5000 51.00 2.0% $5,000
Marie Wattel +5000 51.00 2.0% $5,000
Hukina Hirayama +8000 81.00 1.2% $8,000
Kimberly Buys +8000 81.00 1.2% $8,000
Louise Hansson +8000 81.00 1.2% $8,000
Anastasiya Shkurdai +10000 101.00 1.0% $10,000
Aliena Schmidtke +15000 151.00 0.7% $15,000
Anna Dowgiert +15000 151.00 0.7% $15,000

Pick: The odds are insanely high, but picking anyone other than Sjostrom is just wrong. Put her in a parlay.

Interestingly enough, you can get slightly better odds (-833) taking Sjostrom head-to-head over Ranomi Kromowidjojo:

Women’s 50 Butterfly H2H

Swimmer American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Odds Profit from $100 bet
Sarah Sjostrom -833 1.12 89.3% $12
Ranomi Kromowidjojo +425 5.25 19.0% $425

Women’s 50 Freestyle

Sjostrom also opened as -118 favorite in the women’s 50 free, facing a much more competitive field that includes Pernille Blume and Cate Campbell who were 23.75 and 23.78 respectively last year (with Sjostrom leading the world ranks at 23.74).

Swimmer American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Odds Profit from $100 bet
Sarah Sjostrom -118 1.85 54.1% $85
Cate Campbell +300 4.00 25.0% $300
Pernille Blume +300 4.00 25.0% $300
Ranomi Kromowidjojo +1000 11.00 9.1% $1,000
Simone Manuel +1000 11.00 9.1% $1,000
Bronte Campbell +1200 13.00 7.7% $1,200
Taylor Ruck +2500 26.00 3.8% $2,500
Maria Kameneva +5000 51.00 2.0% $5,000
Aliaksandra Herasimenia +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Etiene Medeiros +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Xiang Liu +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Femke Heemskerk +8000 81.00 1.2% $8,000
Freya Anderson +8000 81.00 1.2% $8,000
Anna Santamans +15000 151.00 0.7% $15,000
Arina Surkova +15000 151.00 0.7% $15,000
Charlotte Bonnet +15000 151.00 0.7% $15,000
Anna Hopkin +20000 201.00 0.5% $20,000
Katarzyna Wasick +20000 201.00 0.5% $20,000
Qingfeng Wu +30000 301.00 0.3% $30,000

Pick: This one should be really close, and based on times last year, taking a gamble on either Campbell or Blume makes sense given the odds. We’ll go with Cate.

Men’s 50 Breaststroke

Adam Peaty comes in just behind Sjostrom’s 50 fly odds in the men’s 50 breast, with the line sitting at -714.

Swimmer American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Odds Profit from $100 bet
Adam Peaty -714 1.14 87.7% $14
Felipe Lima +450 5.50 18.2% $450
Joao Gomes +600 7.00 14.3% $600
Fabio Scozzoli +2500 26.00 3.8% $2,500
Ilya Shymanovich +3300 34.00 2.9% $3,300
Caba Siladi +5000 51.00 2.0% $5,000
Kirill Prigoda +5000 51.00 2.0% $5,000
Michael Andrew +5000 51.00 2.0% $5,000
Michael Houlie +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Nicolo Martinenghi +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Ross Murdoch +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Yasuhiro Koseki +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Peter Stevens +8000 81.00 1.2% $8,000
Yan Zibei +8000 81.00 1.2% $8,000
Andrey Nikolaev +10000 101.00 1.0% $10,000
Ties Elzerman +25000 251.00 0.4% $25,000
Fabian Schwingenschloegl +50000 501.00 0.2% $50,000
Matthew Wilson +50000 501.00 0.2% $50,000
Tobias Bjerg +50000 501.00 0.2% $50,000
Zach Stubblety-Cook +50000 501.00 0.2% $50,000

Pick: Given how fast the Brazilians have been this year, taking Peaty is risky at that line. Take a stab on Lima, who is the fastest swimmer in the world this year after going 26.33 on the Mare Nostrum Tour.

Women’s 100 Backstroke

The women’s 100 back is more complicated than the races with the massive favorites. Defending World Champ Kylie Masse enters at -152, having also won the Commonwealth and Pan Pac titles last year (and holding the top time in the world this year).

Kathleen Baker, who set the world record last summer, has dealt with injury recently and thus comes as a 3-to-1 underdog.

Swimmer American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Odds Profit from $100 bet
Kylie Masse -152 1.66 60.2% $66
Kathleen Baker +300 4.00 25.0% $300
Olivia Smoliga +400 5.00 20.0% $400
Taylor Ruck +800 9.00 11.1% $800
Katinka Hosszu +1200 13.00 7.7% $1,200
Anastasia Fesikova +4000 41.00 2.4% $4,000
Kaylee McKeown +4000 41.00 2.4% $4,000
Margherita Panziera +5000 51.00 2.0% $5,000
Georgia Davies +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Mie Nielsen +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Minna Atherton +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Fu Yuanhui +8000 81.00 1.2% $8,000
Daria Vaskina +10000 101.00 1.0% $10,000
Kira Toussaint +15000 151.00 0.7% $15,000
Jessica Fullalove +25000 251.00 0.4% $25,000
Laura Riedemann +25000 251.00 0.4% $25,000
Natsumi Sakai +25000 251.00 0.4% $25,000
Simona Kubova +25000 251.00 0.4% $25,000

Pick: If Baker hadn’t been injured in May, she’d be the pick at those odds. But Masse has been so good and so consistent she’s the selection. Olivia Smoliga and Taylor Ruck are both interesting as well in those spots.

Men’s 50 Fly

The lone event with no one at -100 or lower is the men’s 50 fly, where the favorite is world record holder Andrii Govorov at +120.

Swimmer American Odds Decimal Odds Implied Odds Profit from $100 bet
Andrii Govorov +120 2.20 45.5% $120
Nicholas Santos +275 3.75 26.7% $275
Caeleb Dressel +450 5.50 18.2% $450
Oleg Kostin +550 6.50 15.4% $550
Ben Proud +600 7.00 14.3% $600
Joseph Schooling +1800 19.00 5.3% $1,800
Michael Andrew +4000 41.00 2.4% $4,000
Andrey Zhilkin +5000 51.00 2.0% $5,000
Mehdy Metella +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Piero Codia +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Szebasztian Szabo +6600 67.00 1.5% $6,600
Konrad Czerniak +8000 81.00 1.2% $8,000
Kristian Gkolomeev +8000 81.00 1.2% $8,000
Luka Erakovic +12500 126.00 0.8% $12,500
Andrea Vergani +15000 151.00 0.7% $15,000
Kengo Ida +20000 201.00 0.5% $20,000
Mathys Goosen +20000 201.00 0.5% $20,000
Nyls Korstanje +20000 201.00 0.5% $20,000
Yang William Xu +20000 201.00 0.5% $20,000
Damian Wierling +30000 301.00 0.3% $30,000
Marius Kusch +30000 301.00 0.3% $30,000

Pick: Nicholas Santos was a last minute invite to the competition, and is 39 years old, but has been hot all year and could very well take the crown. Caeleb Dressel and defending champion Ben Proud are interesting bets as well, and Szebasztian Szabo is sitting at +6600 after cracking 23 seconds this year. Santos is the pick, however.

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Steve Nolan

Dressel and Proud are in the men’s 50 fly are pretty appealing, and Ikee is a terrible bet in the women’s 50 fly.

Dee

Absolutely criminal to offer bets on Ikee.

Steve Nolan

Seems like whoever did the lines just didn’t take her out of that event. A weird oversight.

Also, picking against Sjostrom in the 50 free sorta feels like a decent bet, too.

Old Man Chalmers

Santos?

Steve Nolan

Hmm true, he’s prolly being discounted, too.

Dee

Why the odds discrepancy between the Brazilians & Shymanovich in the 50br? The latter has been 26.5 twice this season. Take away that 26.3 outlier and his times are similar to Gomes & Lima. The Belarusian is an absolute steal of a bet – A DQ, illness or a bad day for Peaty and he has a massive chance of winning. If they’re offering E/W bets, I’m on Shymanovich.

Lopez

Stop asking why and profit from it…Every year they get “better” with the odds and offer far less options(Top 3, relays in advance) as I’ve felt in the past it was pretty much free money.

Dee

Haha was on very quickly after posting that 🤞🏻

m d e

They used to take bets on Australian nationals that were just awful.

In an event a young relatively unknown (outside of swimming circles) swimmer at the time was obviously going to win (and did by miles) I got them as a serious underdog.

They tried ot rectify it after they were the fastest seed comfortably into the final, but it was too late, I was all in on it.

Taa

Campbell and Ruck I would bet $100 each. Govorov $50, Michael Andrew $10 in the fly and thats it.

Also I would wait until some prelim swims happened to see if thee is someone looking like a good value. I see that Ikee is on there I think these odds are not that well thought out and they may not change quick enough to reflect the actual swimming.

About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James formerly competed for the Laurentian Voyageurs in Sudbury, Ontario, specializing in the 200 free, back and IM. He finished up his collegiate swimming career in February of 2018, placing 11th at the OUA Championships in the 200 IM, and graduated with a bachelor's degree in economics in May. He …

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