2023 World Champs Previews: Ledecky Hunting Historic 6th-Straight Women’s 800 Free Gold

2023 WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

• July 23 to 30, 2023
• Fukuoka, Japan
• Marine Messe Fukuoka
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central

BY THE NUMBERS — WOMEN’S 800 FREESTYLE

• World Record: Katie Ledecky, United States – 8:04.79 (2016)
• World Junior Record: Katie Ledecky, United States – 8:11.00 (2014)
• Championship Record: Katie Ledecky, United States – 8:07.39 (2015)
• 2022 World Champion: Katie Ledecky, United States – 8:08.04

This could turn out to be the most competitive women’s 800 free final we’ve seen in some time. Of course, Katie Ledecky is still the heavy favorite, and it would be shocking if she didn’t win gold in Fukuoka, but behind her, there is a deep field of medal contenders.

Ledecky has dominated this event since she won gold at the 2012 London Olympics, breaking all the records repeatedly. She holds the World Record at 8:04.79, which came in her gold medal performance at the 2016 Olympics in Rio. Ledecky also set the World Championship Record at the 2015 World Championships in Kazan.

On top of that, Ledecky is the defending World Champion in the event, having swum an 8:08.04 for gold last summer in Budapest.

Outside of Ledecky, there are seven swimmers in the world this year who have gone 8:20 or faster in the 800 free, though Canadian superstar Summer McIntosh, who is the #5 performer in the world this year with an 8:20.19, won’t be racing the event in Fukuoka. It’s a shame, though completely understandable, that we won’t get to see McIntosh in the 800 free this summer. As the 400 free World Record holder, it seems plausible that McIntosh would be likely for the silver medal in the 800, and maybe she could even challenge Ledecky a bit. However, McIntosh has the 200 free, 400 free, 200 IM, 400 IM, and 200 fly on her schedule already, not to mention relays, so it’s no real surprise she didn’t want to add the 800 into what is already a very tough lineup.

The reason I say this might be the most competitive women’s 800 free we’ve seen in a long time is because it’s plausible that every swimmer in the final goes under 8:20. Now, in the 800 free it doesn’t often shake out that everyone in the final ends up swimming at their best, however, there are seven swimmers in this field who have been under 8:20 before in their careers, most of whom have been well under that mark.

The most competitive women’s 800 free final that I can remember in recent history was the 2019 World Championships, where the top six swimmers were all under 8:20, with China’s Wang Jianjiahe coming in sixth with an 8:18.57. If you recall, Ledecky won gold in that event in 8:13.58, pulling away from Simona Quadarella at the very end of the race after having sat out several events earlier in the meet due to illness. That 2019 Worlds final saw the top six separated by just 4.99 seconds, and while I don’t expect that to be the case because I suspect that Ledecky will run away with this race, I do think that there’s a very good chance this turns out to be the fastest overall final of the women’s 800 free we’ve ever seen.

KATIE LEDECKY

Well, well, well. Here we are again. A women’s 800 free preview in which we get to discuss just how incredible Katie Ledecky has been in the event for 11 years now. Since winning gold in a breakout performance at the 2012 Olympics in London, Ledecky has run roughshod over the rest of the world in the event, having won gold at every major international meet since then.

Of course, Ledecky set the World Record at a stunning 8:04.79 back in 2016 at the Rio Olympics. She also holds the World Championship Record at 8:07.39, which she swam the year before, at the 2015 Worlds in Kazan.

Katie Ledecky (photo: Jack Spitser)

Ledecky won the world title last summer in Budapest in 8:08.04, coming in just off her Championship Record mark. Importantly, she swam an 8:07.07 at the U.S. Trials at the end of June, marking the fastest time in the world this year by a massive margin, as well as the 3rd-fastest performance of all-time in the event.

Ledecky is as close to a sure thing for gold in the 800 free as we have in this sport currently. Not only has she never lost the event at an international meet in the past 11 years, she holds the 29 fastest performances of all time. That is a level of dominance that is simply unequaled in swimming. To tease that out a little bit more, Ledecky is the only woman to have gone under 8:10 in the 800 free, or even come close, and she’s done so eight times in her career now.

While I’m not quite bold enough to predict that Ledecky will break her World Record in the 800 in Fukuoka, I do think there’s a very good chance she’s equal to or a little bit faster than she swam at Trials, which would put her under the Championship Record. The only thing that could potentially stand in Ledecky’s way is that the women’s 800 free final will be on the final day of the meet, meaning she could be a little tired from the 1500 free, 400 free, and 4×200 free relay by that point. That being said, Ledecky did manage to throw down a blistering 15:29 in the 1500 on the final day of U.S. Trials a little over a week ago, so she’s proven she can still put up exceptional times at the end of her grueling schedules.

There’s more on the line than just time for Ledecky, however. A victory in Fukuoka would mark her sixth-straight World Championship gold in the 800 free, which would make her the first swimmer in history to win gold in a single event at six consecutive World Championships. It would be a huge deal, as Ledecky became the first swimmer to win 5 consecutive World Champs golds in a single event when she won the 800 last summer in Budapest.

THE OTHER RETURNING FINALISTS

Other than Ledecky, there are five returning finalists from last summer’s World Championships in Budapest. The 800 free experienced a bit of a down year at the World Championships last year, as it only took an 8:32.26 to qualify for the final. For context, more than 25 swimmers in the world have already been under 8:32 this year.

2022 LEN European Swimming Championship Rome
Courtesy of Simone Castrovillari

First and foremost, we have Italian star distance swimmer Simona Quadarella. Of the two times we’ve seen Ledecky be truly challenged in the 800 free in the past decade, Quadarella was responsible for one of those instances at those 2019 World Championships. Yes, Ledecky was coming off an illness that had kept her out of much of the meet, but nonetheless, Quadarella took full advantage of the opportunity. For a significant portion of the race, it looked like Quadarella would beat Ledecky and it wasn’t until Ledecky found it in her to put together one final great 50 that she finally pulled away from Quadarella at the very end of the race.

In that race, Quadarella posted her fastest time of her career, which still stands, at 8:14.99. That mark is also the Italian Record in the event. It also makes Quadarella the 5th-fastest performer all-time in the event and fourth among active swimmers.

Though she hasn’t reached the heights of that 8:14.99 since the 2019 World Championships, Quadarella has remained a force to be reckoned with in the event over the last four years. She won bronze in the event at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021, swimming an 8:18.35, then won bronze again last summer at the 2022 World Championships with an 8:19.00.

Quadarella put up a very strong time at the Italian Swimming Championships in April, clocking an 8:21.14 to punch her ticket to Fukuoka. While that puts her eighth in the world this year among those who will be competing in the event in Fukuoka, Quadarella has displayed an ability to consistently get under 8:20 in the event, and she always seems to show up in the biggest moments, so she’s absolutely a medal contender here in Fukuoka.

Coming in ahead of Quadarella in the world rankings this year and just behind her in the all-time rankings in the event is China’s Li Bingjie. The 21-year-old Bingjie came in 5th in the 800 free last summer in Budapest with an 8:23.15. She was quite a bit faster than that about two months ago at the Chinese Spring Championships in early May, where she clocked an 8:20.34 to earn her ticket to Fukuoka.

Bingjie has been as fast as 8:15.46 in her career, a time which she swam at the 2017 World Championships, when she was just 15 years old. That performance ranks Bingjie as the 6th-fastest performer all-time, and the 5th-fastest among active swimmers.

Bingjie has been up-and-down in her career since she burst onto the world stage in the mid-2010’s, but she’s been swimming very well over the last two years. After finishing 15th in the event at the 2019 World Championships with an 8:37.41, Bingjie came back much faster at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021, swimming an 8:22.49, though that time unfortunately put her tenth in the heats, just outside the final. Bingjie then kept building momentum, making it into the final at Worlds last summer, then came in 5th in finals with an 8:23.15.

Isabel Gose
2022 LEN European Swimming Championship Rome
Courtesy of Fabio Cetti

Germany’s Isabel Gose comes into these World Championships as the fourth-fastest swimmer in the world this year and fourth swimmer to go under 8:20 already this year. She clocked her season best and personal best of 8:19.65 at the Berlin Swim Open in April. Gose is the German Record holder in the 400 free (4:03.21), having set that record at the Tokyo Olympics, when she was just 19 years old. Now 21, Gose isn’t all that far off the German Record in the 800, which Sarah Kohler holds at 8:16.43, another time which came at that incredible 2019 World Champs final.

Gose came in 6th in the 800 free at last summer’s World Championships, swimming an 8:23.78. She’s already been 4 seconds faster than that time this year, putting her in excellent position heading into this meet.

We have another returning finalist from last year in New Zealand’s Eve Thomas. Now 22 years old, this will mark Thomas’ third-consecutive World Championships in which she is competing in the 800 free. She came in 7th in the event last year, swimming an 8:30.37 in finals. While that time doesn’t exactly jump off the page, Thomas is having a terrific year. She’s already posted lifetime bests in every LCM freestyle event this year, including throwing down an 8:24.98 in the 800 at the New Zealand National Championships in April.

Thomas will need a similar performance to her New Zealand Nationals time in order to qualify for the final at this World Championship, however, she has already proven she’s capable of doing so. While I didn’t name a dark horse for this event, Thomas would be the closest to being a dark horse in my opinion. She’s someone who could pop off a great prelims swim and wind up in the final unexpectedly.

The final returning finalist from last year’s World Championships is Brazil’s Viviane Jungblut, who came in 8th last summer in Budapest with an 8:37.04. She made it into the final last summer by clocking an 8:32.26 in prelims. Jungblut holds the Brazilian Record in the event with an 8:29.30, which she swam at the Brazil Open in December of 2021.

Jungblut swam an 8:32.73 at the Brazilian National Championship in May, marking her season best. It will take a lifetime best for the 27-year-old Jungblut to qualify for the final this year, however, she is a veteran and that experience does count for something. Jungblut is also set to compete in the women’s 5k, 10k, and mixed 4×1500 relay at the Open Water World Championships, which begin in about a week.

ARIARNE TITMUS

Ariarne Titmus (photo: Jack Spitser)

The second-fastest swimmer in the world in this event right now, Australian superstar Ariarne Titmus didn’t compete at the World Championships last summer. The last time we saw her in this event on the world stage was at the Tokyo Olympics in the summer of 2021, where she earned silver to Ledecky’s gold, giving the World Record holder as good of a race as anyone in the event over the past decade.

Titmus clocked an 8:13.83 for silver in Tokyo, which was then a new Oceanic Record in the event. She doubled down last summer, swimming an 8:13.59 for gold at the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham, lowering the Oceanic Record once again. That mark also makes Titmus the second-fastest performer in history in the event, and she’s the only woman other than Ledecky to have ever gone under 8:14.

She comes into these World Championships as the 2nd-fastest swimmer in the world this year, having swum a very solid 8:15.88 at the Australian Trials in June. Titmus seems like the clear choice for silver in Fukuoka, as the next-fastest swimmer in the world this year is Fairweather with her 8:18.00, and Titmus has the benefit of having been 8:13 twice before in the event.

Titmus is currently a faster 200 freestyler and slightly faster 400 freestyler than Ledecky, so there is a slim chance she could challenge Ledecky for gold if Ledecky is off her Trials time from the end of June. In order to do that, however, Titmus will have to be willing to go out with Ledecky from the start and do everything she can to hold on. If there’s one thing we know, it’s that Ledecky is not going to get run down at the end of an 800, so Titmus’ only chance would be to push Ledecky from the start. The good news in that regard is that Titmus does have a bit more speed than Ledecky, so she could take the race out at least as fast as Ledecky. The only question is whether she could hold that pace in the way we know Ledecky can.

FRESH FACES

New Zealand’s Erika Fairweather was a finalist in the women’s 400 free at last summer’s World Championships in Budapest. Fairweather, 19, has been on an upward trajectory for a while now, and it now would seem she’s reached a level where she stands a very good chance at winning a medal on the world stage.

Erika Fairweather (photo: Jack Spitser)

Fairweather enters these World Championships as the 3rd-fastest swimmer in the world this year, having swum an 8:18.00 at the New Zealand Open Championship in April. The performance makes the teenager one of four women who have gone under 8:20 in the event this year. She’s also now surpassed fellow New Zealander Eve Thomas in the event.

Speaking of Fairweather’s spot within New Zealand swimming, she’s now withing half-a-second of the New Zealand Record of 8:17.65, which is held by distance legend Lauren Boyle from the 2015 World Championships.

Fairweather clocked new personal bests of 1:55.44 and 4:00.62 in the 200 and 400 free at the New Zealand Championships in April in addition to her PB in the 800. That’s worth noting because it shows that Fairweather has developed some real speed in the freestyle events, which could help her take the 800 out with the likes of Titmus.

In a very similar position to Fairweather is Australian 21-year-old Lani Pallister. Of note, Pallister had a ton of success as a junior swimmer in the event, having won gold in the 800 free at the 2018 Junior Pacs and the 2019 World Junior Championships. On top of that, Pallister won gold in the 800 free at the 2022 SC World Championships this past December in Melbourne.

Pallister is a rising threat in LC 200 free all the way to the 1500 free. She earned the bronze medal in the 1500 at the 2022 LC World Champs last summer in Budapest, earning a silver medal in the women’s 4×200 free relay for swimming in prelims as well.

Jillian Cox (photo: Jack Spitser)

Pallister swam an 8:20.56 at the Australian World Champs Trials in June, earning her a spot on the Worlds roster in the event. Pallister holds a career best of 8:17.77, which she swam at the 2022 Australian Trials. Pallister would go on to compete in the event in Budapest at the World Championships last summer, qualifying for the final of the 800 free via an 8:24.66 for 2nd in the heats. Unfortunately for Pallister, she tested positive for COVID after the prelims of the 800 free and was unable to compete in the final. We could have included Pallister in the ‘returning finalists’ section, however, it felt more appropriate to put her here, since she didn’t really end up getting a fair shot in the event last year.

Finally, we have the second American in this event, 18-year-old Jillian Cox. In one of the most unexpected finishes of the U.S. Trials in late June, the rising teenage star upset a number of established American distance swimmers, including most notably Leah Smith and Katie Grimes. Cox roared to a massive new lifetime best of 8:20.28 in Indianapolis, which makes her the 6th-fastest swimmer in the world this year and 5th among those who will be competing in the event in Fukuoka.

It’s hard to put to words just how massive that swim was for Cox. She entered the meet with a personal best of 8:30.38, which she swam last summer for gold at Junior Pan Pacs. That means that with her performance at U.S. Trials, Cox took a little over 10 seconds off her lifetime best, a truly stunning amount when discussing swimmers of this caliber.

While that’s obviously great for Cox, and she managed to qualify for the World Champs team over some huge names, the question is now whether Cox will be able to replicate such a huge performance in Fukuoka. That being said, there is reason to believe in Cox. She’s been improving consistently over the past two years, and she has youth on her side, which puts her in one of the most favorable positions one can find themselves in in this sport.

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