2023 U.S. Trials Previews: With Or Without Dressel, Men Must Step Up In 100 Free

2023 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

• June 27 – July 1, 2023
• Indianapolis, IN
• Indiana University Natatorium
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index

MEN’S 100 FREE — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record:  46.86 — David Popovici (2022)
• American Record: 46.96 — Caeleb Dressel (2019)
• U.S. Open Record: 47.39 — Ryan Held (2019)/Caeleb Dressel (2021)
• 2022 U.S. International Team Trials Champion: Caeleb Dressel, 47.79
• World Aquatics ‘A’ Cut- 48.51

For the first time since 2016, there’s uncertainty surrounding the men’s 100 free in the United States.

Over the last six years, Caeleb Dressel has been leading the way for the American men, being the best 100 freestyler in the world. However, with the emergence of David Popovici alongside Dressel’s absence from competition over the last year, a changing of the guard in the men’s 100 free is bound to happen. Even if Dressel ends up coming back for Trials, it’s unknown whether or not he’s going to be in peak form. In a scenario where Dressel’s not in top shape, American men who have been led by Dressel in the past must step in and become the leaders, sparking a new generation of 100 freestylers in the country. And it’s the upcoming U.S. World Championship Trials that will help decide who those new leaders will be (and whether Dressel will be amongst them or not).

The Favorites

Caeleb Dressel (photo: Jack Spitser)

Let’s start off by answering the burning question: what form will Dressel be in at Trials? After spending nearly a year out of official competition, he returned to the pool just a few weeks ago at the Atlanta Classic, and then later at the FAST Senior Open. At the latter meet, he posted a season-best of 49.80. He’s usually a pretty slow in-season swimmer (he didn’t break 49 seconds prior to Trials in both 2017 and 2022), but this is the slowest he’s been coming into a major trials meet since 2014. In other words, he’s more vulnerable than he’s ever been.

Given Dressel’s ceiling as a swimmer who has broken 47 before and used to be able to churn out 47-mids/lows like it was nothing, it’s hard to believe that a year off is all that it will take for him to miss out on finishing top six in the United States. However, with apprehension surrounding his form and the rise of other swimmers like Brooks Curry and Ryan Held, his path to first place is going to be harder than it was before. Because of this, we’re having him qualify for the relay, but not making it individually.

Without Dressel, it is in fact Curry and Held who were picked to qualify individually. Curry was the second-place finisher at Trials last year, and went on to set a personal best time of 47.90 en route to placing fifth at the World Championships. He’s been on a roll so far in 2023, posting a season-best of 48.42 at the Tristian Vessel Invite, which has him headed into Trials as the fastest American this year. Held, meanwhile, has emerged as arguably America’s best sprinter in Dressel’s absence. After qualifying for his first senior international team since 2016, he went on to split as fast as 46.99 on the 4×100 free relay at Worlds, and then swam a season-best of 47.85 leading off the mixed free relay (which made him the fastest non-Dressel U.S. 100 freestyler of 2022). His 2023 season-best is 48.74, and he’ll head into Trials ready to step up for his country once more.

Rising Contenders

Aside from Curry and Held, the projected qualifiers for the 4×100 free relay become less certain and more up for debate. Because of this, all of the other potential contenders for this relay will be listed in this category.

Hunter Armstrong (photo: Jack Spitser)

Hunter Armstrong, a prelims swimmer on last year’s men’s 4×100 free relay at Worlds, has had one of the best in-season showcases this year amongst Americans. His move to go pro and focus on long course full-time at Cal seems to have worked very well, considering that he’s posted four different 52-point 100 back swims and a season-best of 48.79 in the 100 free that has him ranked fifth in the country. He’s had more standout backstroke times so far this year, but given that he’s been as fast as 48.25 in the 100 free and (as of a year ago, though this could have changed at Cal) trains more freestyle than backstroke, it’s reasonable to expect that he could break 48 this year and qualify for Worlds in the 100 free.

The last two Worlds qualifiers from last year that haven’t been mentioned are Drew Kibler and Justin Ress. Kibler, who left Texas last fall to return to his hometown and train with the Carmel Swim Club, has looked very strong in-season, clocking the only sub-1:46 200 free among Americans this year. His season-best of 48.89 is ranked eighth in the nation, and he’s been as fast as 48.25. Trials will be a chance for him to redeem himself, as he qualified for Worlds last year but couldn’t swim on the 4×100 free relay due to COVID-19 protocol. Ress placed sixth at Trials in a new best time of 48.38 last year, narrowly qualifying for his first senior international meet since 2017. However, he made good use of his time at Worlds, splitting a 47.48 to help Team USA win 4×100 free relay gold (and of course, becoming a world champion in the 50 back after being DQed and then having his DQ overturned). He hasn’t broken 49 yet this season, but watch for him to be a contender.

However, Kibler and Ress won’t be picked to qualify this year, mainly because of the momentum of some other swimmers. One of those names is rising Cal junior Jack Alexy, who is America’s seventh-fastest 100 freestyler of 2023 with a season-best of 48.85.

Alexy didn’t have a great championship season last year, first adding a significant amount of time from the 2022 Pac-12s to NCAAs, and then finishing in a disappointing 24th in the 100 free after being picked by SwimSwam to qualify for Worlds. However, things have turned around for him this past year, setting times across the board at NCAAs. His most impressive swim at that meet was the 100 free, where he finished second overall in 40.88 to become the eighth-fastest performer of all-time. He’s not being picked to qualify for Worlds solely because of his short course performances, however—it’s important to note that prior to this year, he was widely regarded as being better in long course than short course, with turns being his greatest weakness. He swam 48.69 in the 100 free at the 2021 Olympic Trials to break Dressel’s 17-18 U.S. National Age Group record, so there’s a lot of improvement potential in him considering how much better of a swimmer he’s gotten in college.

Another swimmer who has been on an upward swing of momentum is Shaine Casas. After not racing the 100 free at Trials last year, he went on to post a 48.28 at U.S. Nationals to close out his 2022 season as America’s fourth-fastest 100 free performer. Although his 2023 season-best is only 49.92 (from racing in one singular Pro Series prelims race), he’s had some great showings in other events in-season, such as his 50.80 100 fly in Fort Lauderdale and 1:56.06 200 IM in Westmont. The 100 free doesn’t conflict with any of his other events at Trials and neither does the 4×100 free relay at Worlds, which means it’s likely that he’s going to try to vie for a relay spot, and his prior speed proves that he’s capable of qualifying.

Two other swimmers that had breakout performances at U.S. Nationals are Matt King and Kieran Smith. King and Smith went respective best times of 48.33 and 48.50 last year, and King’s time would have been fast enough to qualify for Worlds had he matched it at Trials (a meet he didn’t compete at). King, who is a rising senior at the University of Virginia, temporarily left Charlottesville for the summer to train under Coley Stickels, his former head coach at the University of Alabama. In April, he said that he was returning to Stickels for the opportunity to pursue “a training cycle that was geared towards Olympic Trials” and to “learn a new perspective in the sport”. During his time with Stickels, he set a season-best of 48.72 in the 100 free, which is ranked third in the country. Trials will be his first major meet in nearly a year, as he missed NCAAs and ACCs due to family matters. He has looked great so far this season after his time off, but it will be interesting to see how he does at a major taper meet after switching coaches and focusing solely on long course.

Smith, on the other hand, is better known for being one of America’s top 200 and 400 freestylers. However, in an interview with SwimSwam last year, he said that he was aiming to get on the 2024 U.S. Olympic team for the 4×100 free relay. He’s only raced the 100 free once this year, going 49.34 at the Atlanta Classic, but (based on his previous statements) there’s a possibility that he could have an increased focus in the event leading up to the 2024 Olympics. Like King, it will be interesting to see his progression after a year out of college and training long course full-time.

Closing off this article will be the introduction of the teenagers, Jonny Kulow and Kaii Winkler. Eighteen-year-old Kulow, a rising sophomore at Arizona State, emerged out of nowhere this year to become one of the NCAA’s best sprint freestylers after dropping two seconds in his 100 free. He then saw a two-second drop in the long course 100 free as well, going into 2023 with a best time of 50.39 and then posting a time of 48.70 at the Sun Devil Open to rank as the second-fastest American of 2023. Seventeen-year-old Winkler, meanwhile, became the youngest American swimmer ever to crack 49 seconds in the 100 free when he went 48.81 at the Fort Lauderdale Pro Series. Both swimmers are relatively inexperienced on the big stage and will head into Trials as contenders to make senior international teams for the first time, so their performances will be largely dictated by how well they can handle the pressure. This especially applies to Winkler, who even admitted to being a better prelims swimmer than finals (he was faster in the 100 free prelims than finals at both Winter Juniors and the Fort Lauderdale PSS)—he’s going to need to swim his fastest at finals when the lights shine the brightest if he wants to make Worlds.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Dark Horse: Patrick Sammon— There’s a lot of talk about Kulow’s progression over the last year, but let’s not forget that Sammon, his teammate at Arizona State, is just 0.23 seconds slower than him. He came into 2023 with a best time of 49.42, but then improved it to 48.93 at the Sun Devil Open. He’s the ninth-fastest American this year, and considering that he trains under Bob Bowman and Herbie Behm at ASU alongside names like Kulow and Held, it would be reasonable to expect a breakout from him soon with his best time already nearing those of some of the other names mentioned in this article.

See all of our selections for the 2023 U.S. Nationals with the SwimSwam Preview Index here.