The Olympics That Would Have Been: Dressel’s Triple Triumph On Day 7

Following our “The Trials That Would Have Been” series, where we predicted how the 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials would’ve played out had the event not been cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic, this week will feature a similar series for the postponed Tokyo Olympic Games.

Pool swimming was set to kick off on the evening of July 25 local time, with finals contested the following morning. Tokyo is 13 hours ahead of Eastern time, so finals were slated to run from 9:30-11:20 pm EST. For the purpose of this exercise, each session will be published on the corresponding day those finals would’ve happened in the United States.

This will be a day-by-day trip into the hypothetical, analyzing the events that would have happened, and how they might’ve played out. Forgive me as I try to reel in my imagination and keep the times *somewhat* realistic. Feel free to add your own predictions, picks, humorous quips and more in the comments below!

Day 7 Finals

Men’s 100m Butterfly Final

Since breaking out in 2017, becoming the first (and still only) man to go under 50 seconds in a textile suitCaeleb Dressel has been in a league of his own in the men’s 100 butterfly. His margin of victory from the 2017 Worlds, 2018 Pan Pacs and 2019 Worlds combined is an incredible 2.50 seconds, with his 1.17 gap in Gwangju the largest since Ian Crocker‘s world record victory in 2005.

After posting a time of 49.59 in the semis, Dressel blasts out to an opening 50 of 22.84, with two-time world champion Chad Le Clos second (23.47) and 2019 runner-up Andrei Minakov (23.61) third.

Dressel extends his lead coming home, being the only one in the field splitting sub-27, as he touches in a time of 49.26 to slash just over two-tenths off his existing world record of 49.50.

Minakov manages to come back on Le Clos, winning silver in 50.63, while Le Clos takes bronze in 50.74. Kristof Milak, coming off his gold medal and world record in the 200 fly, almost runs down the South African but ends up fourth, splitting 23.82/27.00 for 50.82.

Maxime Rooney takes fifth in 51.03, followed by Shinnosuke Ishikawa (51.24), Vini Lanza (51.37) and Marius Kusch (51.40).


  1. Caeleb Dressel, USA, 49.26 WR
  2. Andrei Minakov, RUS, 50.63
  3. Chad Le Clos, RSA, 50.74

Women’s 200m Backstroke Final

After becoming the first woman to go sub-2:04 in 2019, 18-year-old American Regan Smith had broken through the 2:03 barrier at the U.S. Olympic Trials. Similar to Dressel in the 100 fly, she came into the final truly only in a race against the clock.

Out in a blistering 59.97, Smith holds 31s coming home to sneak under her Trials mark in 2:02.79, clearing the field by almost two and a half seconds. This victory gives her three medals at the Games.

Behind Smith, the field was incredibly bunched up. Taylor Ruck and Minna Atherton were out fast at the 100, sitting second and third in 1:01-low, but it was their respective teammates Kylie Masse and Kaylee McKeown who executed on the back half to take over second and third.

Masse claims silver in 2:05.44, matching her 100m result, while McKeown wins her first Olympic medal with a bronze in 2:05.73. Margherita Panziera of Italy moved up into fourth in 2:06.13, followed by Atherton (2:06.41), and Ruck was sixth in 2:06.72 amidst a busy schedule in Tokyo.


  1. Regan Smith, USA, 2:02.79 WR
  2. Kylie Masse, CAN, 2:05.44
  3. Kaylee McKeown, AUS, 2:05.73

Women’s 800m Freestyle Final

When she walked out for the 800 free final, Katie Ledecky had already raced 5,400 meters at these Games, taking on a gruelling schedule that had seen her win two gold, one silver and one bronze medal thus far. Similar to the mile, she wouldn’t need to be anywhere near her best time to win gold here. But she wanted to take aim at her world record that had stood since Rio.

Riding the momentum of her 200 free win, Australia’s Ariarne Titmus swims like she has nothing to lose early, matching Ledecky stroke-for-stroke through the 300.

Ledecky pulled away from there, turning in 4:01.68 at the 400 before a final 50 of 29.11 got her into the wall in 8:04.46, sneaking under her 2016 mark of 8:04.79.

Titmus was pursued heavily by Italian Simona Quadarella down the last 200, but her finishing speed managed to bring her into the wall for a clear silver in 8:12.89, with Quadarella third in 8:13.68. Those swims moved them into #2 and #3 all-time, overtaking Rebecca Adlington‘s 8:14.10.

Wang Jianjiahe of China was fourth in 8:18.77, followed by Lani Pallister (8:20.64) and Leah Smith (8:20.98).


  1. Katie Ledecky, USA, 8:04.46 WR
  2. Ariarne Titmus, AUS, 8:12.89
  3. Simona Quadarella, ITA, 8:13.68

Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay

Despite falling to the Australians at the 2019 World Championships, the Americans came into the inaugural Olympic final of the mixed 4×100 medley relay as the overwhelming favorites. All four of their swimmers in the final had won their respective individual 100m races, and they even had room to leave women’s 100 back champ Regan Smith on the prelim relay.

It proved to be quite the spectacle in its debut on the biggest stage in sports as only two of the top-five teams used the traditional two men/two women strategy, making for a wild race.

Ryan Murphy gave the U.S. the early lead in 52.18, with Evgeny Rylov (52.31) and Mitch Larkin (52.71) also putting Russia and Australia in a good position. Adam Peaty flies by everyone for Great Britain on breast, splitting a record 56.07 to give them a sizable lead over the Aussies. The Americans had used Lilly King and were back by over six seconds.

Coming off winning individual 100 fly gold earlier in the session (and a semi-final in the 50 free), Caeleb Dressel goes almost the exact same time with a flying start (49.25) to hand Simone Manuel a two-second buffer over the field.

Unlike in Gwangju, Cate Campbell didn’t have enough room to run down Manuel, as the U.S. wins gold in a new world record time of 3:37.25. Campbell did have an incredibly quick 51.19 anchor to put Australia second in 3:39.00, just under their 2019 winning time, while Great Britain (3:40.16) edged out bronze over Russia (3:40.73) and Canada (3:40.84). Perhaps the most notable splits from those two teams came on fly, from Andrei Minakov (50.61) and Maggie MacNeil (55.38).


1.United States, 3:37.15 WR

  1. Murphy,Ryan          52.18
  2. King,Lilly                 1:04.03 (1:56.11)
  3. Dressel,Caeleb         49.25  (2:45.36)
  4. Manuel,Simone        51.79  (3:37.15)

2.Australia, 3:39.00

  1. Larkin,Mitch             52.71
  2. Wilson,Matthew       58.74 (1:51.45)
  3. McKeon,Emma          56.36 (2:47.81)
  4. Campbell,Cate           51.19 (3:39.00)

3.Great Britain, 3:40.16

  1. Greenbank,Luke        53.70
  2. Peaty,Adam                56.07 (1:49.77)
  3. Atinkson,Charlotte    57.73 (2:47.50)
  4. Anderson,Freya         52.66 (3:40.16)

Also On The Schedule

Men’s 50m Freestyle Semi-Finals

After a cruisy 21.52 prelim, Dressel puts together a smooth 21.23 out of the first semi to easily win the heat as he prepares for the mixed medley relay. Behind him, Bruno Fratus (21.50) and Michael Andrew (21.58) take second and third.

In the second heat, Florent Manaudou blasts down in 21.27 as he sets himself up for a chance to regain the gold medal he lost in 2016 (after winning in 2012). Vladimir Morozov (21.41) and Kristian Gkolomeev (21.47) have strong swims behind him to qualify third and fourth overall.

Women’s 50m Freestyle Semi-Finals

With both swimmers set to race the mixed medley in a matter of minutes, Cate Campbell and Simone Manuel look fairly controlled coming down the pool as they clock 24.14 and 24.19 respectively to go 1-2 in the first semi of the women’s 50 free. Bronte Campbell and Ranomi Kromowidjojo (24.27) tie for third.

The second heat proves much quicker than the first, as both Sarah Sjostrom (23.87) and Pernille Blume (23.95) dip under 24 seconds for the top-two seeds heading into the final. Anna Hopkin (24.18) steals third ahead of Liu Xiang (24.23) and Abbey Weitzeil (24.34).

Medal Table Through Day Seven

Gold Silver Bronze Total
USA 14 4 8 26
Australia 3 6 8 17
Japan 2 5 1 8
Canada 6 2 8
Russia 3 2 1 6
Hungary 3 1 1 5
Italy 1 2 2 5
Great Britain 1 2 1 4
China 1 2 3
Lithuania 2 2
Sweden 1 1 2
South Africa 2 2
Belarus 1 1
Netherlands 1 1
Norway 1 1

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Casas 100 back gold in Tokyo
11 months ago

These predictions are too similar to what actually happened in Gwangju.

Reply to  Casas 100 back gold in Tokyo
11 months ago

Yes- a bit AUS/ USA heavy too…..I think Europe and Asia will win their share of medals. AUS is already in record territory here, I dont think our team is that strong.

Reply to  Casas 100 back gold in Tokyo
11 months ago

these aren’t predictions…

GA Boy
Reply to  eagleswim
11 months ago

They are…..? They are predictions for wht would be happening at the Olympics right now. Idk if you’ve noticed or not but the Olympics were postponed and there for not happening right now. (They must be from Florida! Never socially distanced a single day)

11 months ago

These WR predictions are getting ridiculous. You can win an Olympic Gold without a WR.

Reply to  torchbearer
11 months ago

The only world record or world records going down in the women’s individual events will transpire in the backstroke by an in form Regan Smith.

Reply to  torchbearer
11 months ago

I agree, and I think the morning finals could have an impact on times for some (thinking back to the women’s 400 free in Beijing as one example)

Reply to  torchbearer
11 months ago

We have nothing else going for us. Let us have these hypothetical WR’s. I’m loving it

He Said What?
Reply to  PVSFree
11 months ago

Thank you.

Reply to  PVSFree
11 months ago

One could reference the 2012 London Olympics and the 2016 Rio Olympics for the number of world records broken as swimming world reverted back to the textile era for two aforemtioned Summer Olympics.

Reply to  torchbearer
11 months ago

World Records
2012 London Olympics
Women’s Events
Individual – 5
Relay – 1 (USA)

(Franklin, Shiwen, Soni, Soni, Vollmer)

World Records
2016 Rio Olympics
Women’s Events
Individual – 4
Relay – 1 (AUS)

(Hosszu, Ledecky, Ledecky, Sjostrom)

11 months ago

US almost has 3-4 different potential winning combos in that relay. It might be too much to fight through but they could go Smith, King, Dressel, Held/Rooney/Apple for a similar time

Or Smith, Miller/Wilson, dressel, Manuel

In Fact, IF the us backstrokers (men) have a bad meet and can’t get below 52.5 while you have smith at sun 56.5 and The us men splitting 46.7 (OTD) you may see them go WWMM

Reply to  Horninco
11 months ago

I wonder if, now that it’s an Olympic event, countries are doing more research on the impacts of wake and drafting and etc. in mixed medley relays, especially as it comes to the order of genders.

Reply to  Braden Keith
11 months ago

As well the concept of actual ‘racing’. If you are a good time trial type swimmer then won’t matter as much if you go W in one of the first legs (negating the wave issue of course). However if you are more of a racer then you would want your team to be MMWW to be ‘in’ the race the whole way.

Colt Simonelli
11 months ago

56.07 100 breast split 😳

Reply to  Colt Simonelli
11 months ago

Never knew we could be knocking on the door of a 55 this year, let alone this decade

11 months ago

100FL: Dressel/Le Clos/Milak
Minakov/Chalmers/Kusch/Guy/Rooney the finalists.

200BK: Smith/McKeown/Baker
Panziera/Ruck/Shirai/Masse/Atherton the finalists.

800FR: Ledecky/Quadarella/Titmus
Wang/Köhler/Pallister/Smith/Pignatiello the finalists

I know Ben Proud had a poor 2019, but he is still young enough for a sprinter and no mention of the only man who has a textile PB to rival Dressel is a big call.

Colt Simonelli
Reply to  Dee
11 months ago

No way Le Clos is beating Minakov

Reply to  Colt Simonelli
11 months ago

Behind Dressel the podium is difficult to call imo. I know people cite Minakov’s age, but I don’t think we can necessarily expect improvements, he was physically mature as a junior. There are a bunch of men with similar PBs, so I plumped for the raw talent of Milak and the proven big time experience of Le Clos. Minakov has as much chance as anyone else though, all a game of opinions.

tea rex
Reply to  Dee
11 months ago

I think Milak duffed the 100 fly last year and is capable of much better. When I was around 1:50 high in the 200 fly (scy, of course), I was 49-high in the 100, and not even a sprinter.

11 months ago

What you are selling, I’m not buying. Kylie Masse swims 0.5 slower than her personal best (58.10 dated 07/25/17) at the 2019 FINA World Aquatics Championships to win the women’s 100 meter backstroke. Out of nowhere, Kylie Masse swims 0.53 faster than her personal best (2:05.97 dated 07/28/17) in the women’s 200 meter backstroke three years later. Furthermore, Kylie Masse has been by far a more consistent and accomplished swimmer in the women’s 100 meter backstroke than the women’s 200 meter backstroke.

Hoosier Eli
11 months ago

No Men’s 1500 Free Prelims teaser?

11 months ago

With so many incredible women backstrokers around now it feels crazy to remember Hosszu winning the 100 back in Rio – I had to go and look it up. I don’t think we’ll see her back on the podium in anything under 200m going forward.

Reply to  Swimmer
11 months ago

Regan Smith posted a time of 58.45 in the final of the women’s 100 meter backstroke at the 2019 Counsilman Classic dated 15 Jun 2019. The afoementioned time was identical to the winning time in the women’s 100 meter backstroke at the 2016 Rio Olympics. Regan Smith posted a time of 58.55 in the preliminaries of the women’s 100 meter backstroke at the 2019 Counsilman Classic. The two aforemtioned times were faster than the winning time in the women’s 100 backstroke at the 2019 FINA World Aquatics Championships.

Reply to  Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
11 months ago


About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James swam five years at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario, specializing in the 200 free, back and IM. He finished up his collegiate swimming career in 2018, graduating with a bachelor's degree in economics. In 2019 he completed his graduate degree in sports journalism. Prior to going to Laurentian, James swam …

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