Enter SwimSwam’s Pick ‘Em Contest Here.
With the 2024 World Championships closing in less than one day away, let’s check in to see where SwimSwam reader predictions are differing from betting odds released by Caesars Sportsbook.
Caesars is generally in agreement with SwimSwam readers aside from a couple events (note: Caesars has not yet released odds for every event). SwimSwam readers picked Tunisian Olympic champion Ahmed Hafnaoui to sweep the men’s 400-meter freestyle (74.9%), 800 free (55.5%), and 1500 free (52.3%), but Caesars has Irish distance star Daniel Wiffen (+150) favored over Hafnaoui (+175) in the 800.
At the 2023 World Championships, Hafnaoui took gold in the 800 free with a winning time of 7:37.00, more than two seconds ahead of Wiffen (7:39.19). But since then, Hafnaoui has switched training bases and Wiffen broke the world record in the short-course meter (SCM) 800 free (7:20.46) at the European Short Course Championships in December.
The men’s 100 breaststroke is expected to be one of the tightest battles this year in Doha, Qatar, as SwimSwam readers distributed their votes pretty evenly between Nic Fink (30.4%), Arno Kamminga (25.1%), Nicolo Martinenghi (21.4%), and Adam Peaty (20.8%). Caesars, on the other hand, believes Peaty will return with a bang after missing the past two World Championships. Peaty, the two-time defending Olympic champion, is favored just slightly (+200) over Fink (+225), Kamminga (+400), and Martinenghi (+450).
The men’s 50 fly should also feature a fun showdown between America’s Michael Andrew, Trinidad and Tobago’s Dylan Carter, and Portugal’s Diogo Ribeiro. SwimSwam readers picked Andrew (44.5%) over Carter (21.4%) and Ribeiro (19.2%) while Caesars has Andrew (+240) just ahead of Ribeiro (+333) and Carter way down at +650 odds. Ribeiro, 19, took silver at last year’s Worlds while Carter barely missed the final after placing 4th in 2022.
SwimSwam readers are fairly confident that Italy’s Simona Quadarella will sweep the 800 free (52.3% over Erika Fairweather‘s 36.9%) and 1500 free (78.2%). However, Caesars only has Quadarella favored at +140 odds in the women’s 1500 free, barely ahead of China’s Li Bingjie. At last year’s Worlds, Quadarella (15:43.31) edged Li (15:45.71) for the silver medal more than 16 seconds behind Katie Ledecky, who’s skipping this year’s edition in Doha to focus on the Paris Olympics this summer.
Judging by SwimSwam reader predictions, there might be solid value in taking British underdog Matthew Richards for the men’s 100 free title at +800 odds over China’s Pan Zhanle (-175). More than one-third of Pick ‘Ems — as of Friday — had Richards (34.7%) upsetting Pan (52%) in the 100 free. And even though she’s not an underdog, Lithuanian veteran Ruta Meilutyte at -120 odds in the women’s 100 breast feels like good value considering 93% of SwimSwam’s readers picked her to win.
One interesting discrepancy is in the men’s 200 free. SwimSwam readers overwhelmingly picked Korea’s Hwang Sunwoo (67.8%) to win the world title after earning bronze last year. But Caesars only has Hwang favored slightly (+180) over Pan (+250). Pan has received just one vote to win the 200 free so far in SwimSwam’s Pick ‘Em despite his lifetime best (1:44.65) being just a couple tenths of a second shy of Hwang’s (1:44.40).
The biggest favorites in SwimSwam’s reader predictions are Kate Douglass in the women’s 200 IM (100%) and Sarah Sjostrom in the 50 fly (98.3%). According to the odds released by Caesars so far, the biggest favorites are Sjostrom in the women’s 50 free (-250) and Cam McEvoy in the men’s 50 free (-250).
Other Notes
- High Hopes for Americans: Along with Douglass in the 200 IM and Andrew in the 50 fly, SwimSwam readers also picked Claire Curzan to pull off a triple in the 100 fly (69%), 100 back (83.7%), and 200 back (97.1%), Hunter Armstrong to double in the 50 back (85.8%) and 100 back (76.3%), Carson Foster to triumph in the 400 IM (86.9%), and Shaine Casas to claim the 100 fly crown (59.8%). Additionally, they selected both the U.S. men’s (63.6%) and women’s (55.5%) 400 medley relays to prevail.
- Women’s 50 Back Battle: SwimSwam readers were torn between Canada’s Ingrid Wilm (43%) and Britain’s Lauren Cox (40.1%) in the women’s 50 back. Last year at Worlds, Wilm placed 6th (27.41) a couple tenths of a second behind Cox (27.20), who snagged bronze.
Crap, forgot to get picks in.
But I do have 14 bets open on Caesar’s, so. Got that going for me.
Gonna be a mighty rich man if Farida Osman wins the 100 fly.
Will the complied results of the SwimSwam readers’ predictions be released in full?
Yep, after we close the entries
I misjudged how long it would take me and submitted my pick ’ems at exactly 8:00 PM ET – Will it count?
McEvoy 50 fly🙏🙏
The Caesars app is confusing. I keep trying to place bets but when I go to the part where you put in your wager I only see a box to enter a dollar amount and can’t figure out how to change it to pairs of goggles to be eaten.