Following our “The Trials That Would Have Been” series, where we predicted how the 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials would’ve played out had the event not been cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic, last week featured a similar series, “The Olympics That Would Have Been”, for the postponed Tokyo Olympic Games.
The results were hypothetical, looking at how the events may have played out based on the information available on each athlete’s form prior to the pandemic. Below is an analysis of the results.
When looking at the final medal tally from the 2020 Olympics That Would Have Been, it’s no surprise that the superstars, who also have the benefit of having strong relay teams, come out on top. Caeleb Dressel leads the way with six medals, all gold, while Katie Ledecky, Simone Manuel and Cate Campbell finished with five medals.
Important note for the medal tallies: for the purpose of this exercise, medals were only counted for the swimmers projected to swim in the final of each relay.
Ledecky, Manuel, Regan Smith, Lilly King and Ryan Murphy tied for second in gold medals with three. Check out the individual medal tally below:
| Name | Nation | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
| Caeleb Dressel | USA | 6 | 6 | ||
| Katie Ledecky | USA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Simone Manuel | USA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Regan Smith | USA | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Ryan Murphy | USA | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Lilly King | USA | 3 | 3 | ||
| Cate Campbell | AUS | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Ariarne Titmus | AUS | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Evgeny Rylov | RUS | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Emma McKeon | AUS | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Daiya Seto | JPN | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Ryan Held | USA | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Danas Rapsys | LTU | 2 | 2 | ||
| Katinka Hosszu | HUN | 2 | 2 | ||
| Brianna Throssell | AUS | 2 | 2 | ||
| Blake Pieroni | USA | 2 | 2 | ||
| Sarah Sjostrom | SWE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Adam Peaty | GBR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Yuliya Efimova | RUS | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Gregorio Paltrinieri | ITA | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Kelsi Dahlia | USA | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Kristof Milak | HUN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Anton Chupkov | RUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Hali Flickinger | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Mykhailo Romanchuk | UKR | 1 | 1 | ||
| Bronte Campbell | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Nathan Adrian | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Andrew Seliskar | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kieran Smith | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Townley Haas | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Madi Wilson | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Andrew Wilson | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kylie Masse | CAN | 3 | 3 | ||
| Maggie MacNeil | CAN | 3 | 3 | ||
| Duncan Scott | GBR | 3 | 3 | ||
| Taylor Ruck | CAN | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Penny Oleksiak | CAN | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Kyle Chalmers | AUS | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| James Guy | GBR | 2 | 2 | ||
| Kosuke Hagino | JPN | 2 | 2 | ||
| Simona Quadarella | ITA | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Mack Horton | AUS | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Minna Atherton | AUS | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Melanie Margalis | USA | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Matthew Wilson | AUS | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Mitch Larkin | AUS | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Andrei Minakov | RUS | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Kayla Sanchez | CAN | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Luke Greenbank | GBR | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Vladislav Grinev | RUS | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wang Jianjiahe | CHN | 2 | 2 | ||
| Clyde Lewis | AUS | 2 | 2 | ||
| Yui Ohashi | JPN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Ilya Shymanovich | BLR | 1 | 1 | ||
| Xu Jiayu | CHN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Sydney Pickrem | CAN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Gabriele Detti | ITA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Ippei Watanabe | JPN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Annie Lazor | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Florent Manaudou | FRA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Vladimir Morozov | RUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kliment Kolesnikov | RUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Tom Dean | GBR | 1 | 1 | ||
| Matthew Richards | GBR | 1 | 1 | ||
| Katie McLaughlin | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kelsey Wog | CAN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Jessica Hansen | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Chase Kalisz | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Elijah Winnington | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Ye Shiwen | CHN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Arno Kamminga | NED | 1 | 1 | ||
| Katsuhiro Matsumoto | JPN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Benedetta Pilato | ITA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Luca Urlando | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Henrik Christiansen | NOR | 1 | 1 | ||
| Boglarka Kapas | HUN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Tatjana Schoenmaker | RSA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Michael Andrew | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Chad Le Clos | RSA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kaylee McKeown | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kristian Gkolomeev | GRE | 1 | 1 | ||
| Pernille Blume | DEN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Florian Wellbrock | GER | 1 | 1 | ||
| Mallory Comerford | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Abbey Weitzeil | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Erika Brown | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Jack Cartwright | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Cameron McEvoy | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Alexander Graham | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Emily Overholt | CAN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Charlotte Atkinson | GBR | 1 | 1 | ||
| Freya Anderson | GBR | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kirill Prigoda | RUS | 1 | 1 |
When isolating for individual events only, we see that Daiya Seto, Danas Rapsys and Katinka Hosszu all had standout meets with two gold medals, while Sarah Sjostrom and Ariarne Titmus, Seto and Smith joined Dressel and Ledecky with 3+ individual medals.
Check out the medal tally from individual events below:
| Name | Nation | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
| Katie Ledecky | USA | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Caeleb Dressel | USA | 3 | 3 | ||
| Daiya Seto | JPN | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Regan Smith | USA | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Danas Rapsys | LTU | 2 | 2 | ||
| Katinka Hosszu | HUN | 2 | 2 | ||
| Ariarne Titmus | AUS | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Sarah Sjostrom | SWE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Ryan Murphy | USA | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Yuliya Efimova | RUS | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Gregorio Paltrinieri | ITA | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cate Campbell | AUS | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Evgeny Rylov | RUS | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Adam Peaty | GBR | 1 | 1 | ||
| Lilly King | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kristof Milak | HUN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Anton Chupkov | RUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Hali Flickinger | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Simone Manuel | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Mykhailo Romanchuk | UKR | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kosuke Hagino | JPN | 2 | 2 | ||
| Kylie Masse | CAN | 2 | 2 | ||
| Simona Quadarella | ITA | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wang Jianjiahe | CHN | 2 | 2 | ||
| Mack Horton | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Yui Ohashi | JPN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Maggie MacNeil | CAN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Ilya Shymanovich | BLR | 1 | 1 | ||
| Duncan Scott | GBR | 1 | 1 | ||
| Xu Jiayu | CHN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Taylor Ruck | CAN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Sydney Pickrem | CAN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Gabriele Detti | ITA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Ippei Watanabe | JPN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kyle Chalmers | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Annie Lazor | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Andrei Minakov | RUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Florent Manaudou | FRA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Chase Kalisz | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Elijah Winnington | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Ye Shiwen | CHN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kelsi Dahlia | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Arno Kamminga | NED | 1 | 1 | ||
| Katsuhiro Matsumoto | JPN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Minna Atherton | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Benedetta Pilato | ITA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Luca Urlando | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Melanie Margalis | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Henrik Christiansen | NOR | 1 | 1 | ||
| Matthew Wilson | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Boglarka Kapas | HUN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Ryan Held | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Tatjana Schoenmaker | RSA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Mitch Larkin | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Michael Andrew | USA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Chad Le Clos | RSA | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kaylee McKeown | AUS | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kristian Gkolomeev | GRE | 1 | 1 | ||
| Pernille Blume | DEN | 1 | 1 | ||
| Florian Wellbrock | GER | 1 | 1 |
Check out a full list of the medalists, event-by-event, below:
| Event | Gold | Silver | Bronze |
| Men’s 50m Freestyle | Caeleb Dressel (USA) – 21.08 OR | Florent Manaudou (FRA) – 21.21 | Kristian Gkolomeev (GRE) – 21.32 |
| Men’s 100m Freestyle | Caeleb Dressel (USA) – 46.73 WR | Kyle Chalmers (AUS) – 46.96 | Ryan Held (USA) – 47.30 |
| Men’s 200m Freestyle | Danas Rapsys (LTU) – 1:43.64 | Duncan Scott (GBR) – 1:44.72 | Katsuhiro Matsumoto (JPN) – 1:44.86 |
| Men’s 400m Freestyle | Danas Rapsys (LTU) – 3:41.67 | Mack Horton (AUS) – 3:42.49 | Elijah Winnington (AUS) – 3:43.23 |
| Men’s 800m Freestyle | Gregorio Paltrinieri (ITA) – 7:38.76 | Gabriele Detti (ITA) – 7:39.36 | Henrik Christiansen (NOR) – 7:41.88 |
| Men’s 1500m Freestyle | Mykhailo Romanchuk (UKR) – 14:35.53 | Gregorio Paltrinieri (ITA) – 14:36.58 | Florian Wellbrock (GER) – 14:38.33 |
| Men’s 100m Backstroke | Ryan Murphy (USA) – 51.69 WR | Xu Jiayu (CHN) – 51.78 | Evgeny Rylov (RUS) – 52.19 |
| Men’s 200m Backstroke | Evgeny Rylov (RUS) – 1:52.95 OR | Ryan Murphy (USA) – 1:53.75 | Mitch Larkin (AUS) – 1:54.43 |
| Men’s 100m Breaststroke | Adam Peaty (GBR) – 56.32 WR | Ilya Shymanovich (BLR) – 57.97 | Arno Kamminga (NED) – 58.21 |
| Men’s 200m Breaststroke | Anton Chupkov (RUS) – 2:06.15 | Ippei Watanabe (JPN) – 2:06.54 | Matthew Wilson (AUS) – 2:06.72 |
| Men’s 100m Butterfly | Caeleb Dressel (USA) – 49.26 WR | Andrei Minakov (RUS) – 50.63 | Chad Le Clos (RSA) – 50.74 |
| Men’s 200m Butterfly | Kristof Milak (HUN) – 1:50.54 WR | Daiya Seto (JPN) – 1:52.80 | Luca Urlando (USA) – 1:53.15 |
| Men’s 200m IM | Daiya Seto (JPN) – 1:55.23 | Kosuke Hagino (JPN) – 1:55.71 | Michael Andrew (USA) – 1:56.03 |
| Men’s 400m IM | Daiya Seto (JPN) – 4:04.91 | Kosuke Hagino (JPN) – 4:06.94 | Chase Kalisz (USA) – 4:07.15 |
| Men’s 4x100m Free Relay | USA – 3:08.33 | Russia – 3:08.83 | Australia – 3:09.68 |
| Men’s 4x200m Free Relay | USA – 7:00.32 | Great Britain – 7:00.44 | Australia – 7:00.50 |
| Men’s 4x100m Medley Relay | USA – 3:27.47 OR | Great Britain – 3:27.81 | Russia – 3:28.27 |
| Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay | USA – 3:37.15 WR | Australia – 3:39.00 | Great Britain – 3:40.16 |
| Women’s 50m Freestyle | Cate Campbell (AUS) – 23.92 | Sarah Sjostrom (SWE) – 23.97 | Pernille Blume (DEN) – 24.06 |
| Women’s 100m Freestyle | Simone Manuel (USA) – 51.81 OR | Cate Campbell (AUS) – 52.17 | Sarah Sjostrom (SWE) – 52.26 |
| Women’s 200m Freestyle | Ariarne Titmus (AUS) – 1:54.14 | Taylor Ruck (CAN) – 1:54.33 | Katie Ledecky (USA) – 1:54.49 |
| Women’s 400m Freestyle | Katie Ledecky (USA) – 3:56.65 | Ariarne Titmus (AUS) – 3:58.04 | Wang Jianjiahe (CHN) – 4:01.40 |
| Women’s 800m Freestyle | Katie Ledecky (USA) – 8:04.46 WR | Ariarne Titmus (AUS) – 8:12.89 | Simona Quadarella (ITA) – 8:13.68 |
| Women’s 1500m Freestyle | Katie Ledecky (USA) – 15:19.01 WR | Simona Quadarella (ITA) – 15:39.78 | Wang Jianjiahe (CHN) – 15:47.79 |
| Women’s 100m Backstroke | Regan Smith (USA) – 56.87 WR | Kylie Masse (CAN) – 58.08 | Minna Atherton (AUS) – 58.26 |
| Women’s 200m Backstroke | Regan Smith (USA) – 2:02.79 WR | Kylie Masse (CAN) – 2:05.44 | Kaylee McKeown (AUS) – 2:05.73 |
| Women’s 100m Breaststroke | Lilly King (USA) – 1:03.96 WR | Yuliya Efimova (RUS) – 1:04.65 | Benedetta Pilato (ITA) – 1:05.61 |
| Women’s 200m Breaststroke | Yuliya Efimova (RUS) – 2:19.49 OR | Annie Lazor (USA) – 2:20.68 | Tatjana Schoenmaker (RSA) – 2:21.71 |
| Women’s 100m Butterfly | Sarah Sjostrom (SWE) – 55.46 WR | Maggie MacNeil (CAN) – 55.55 | Kelsi Dahlia (USA) – 56.35 |
| Women’s 200m Butterfly | Hali Flickinger (USA) – 2:05.57 | Regan Smith (USA) – 2:06.16 | Boglarka Kapas (HUN) – 2:06.78 |
| Women’s 200m IM | Katinka Hosszu (HUN) – 2:06.72 | Sydney Pickrem (CAN) – 2:08.47 | Melanie Margalis (USA) – 2:08.68 |
| Women’s 400m IM | Katinka Hosszu (HUN) – 4:27.92 | Yui Ohashi (JPN) – 4:30.56 | Ye Shiwen (CHN) – 4:31.68 |
| Women’s 4x100m Free Relay | Australia – 3:29.99 WR | Canada – 3:30.72 | USA – 3:30.87 |
| Women’s 4x200m Free Relay | Australia – 7:41.29 WR | USA – 7:41.31 | Canada – 7:42.55 |
| Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay | USA – 3:49.39 WR | Canada/Australia – 3:51.81 | – |
Below find a list of the first-time Olympic medalists based on the hypothetical results:
- Regan Smith
- Ariarne Titmus
- Danas Rapsys
- Brianna Throssell
- Kristof Milak
- Hali Flickinger
- Mykhailo Romanchuk
- Andrew Seliskar
- Kieran Smith
- Madi Wilson
- Andrew Wilson
- Maggie MacNeil
- Simona Quadarella
- Minna Atherton
- Matthew Wilson
- Andrei Minakov
- Kayla Sanchez
- Luke Greenbank
- Vladislav Grinev
- Wang Jianjiahe
- Clyde Lewis
- Yui Ohashi
- Ilya Shymanovich
- Sydney Pickrem
- Ippei Watanabe
- Annie Lazor
- Kliment Kolesnikov
- Tom Dean
- Matthew Richards
- Katie McLaughlin
- Kelsey Wog
- Jessica Hansen
- Elijah Winnington
- Katsuhiro Matsumoto
- Benedetta Pilato
- Luca Urlando
- Henrik Christiansen
- Tatjana Schoenmaker
- Michael Andrew
- Kaylee McKeown
- Kristian Gkolomeev
- Florian Wellbrock
- Mallory Comerford
- Erika Brown
- Jack Cartwright
- Alexander Graham
- Charlotte Atkinson
- Freya Anderson
- Kirill Prigoda
Do we still call him King Kyle if doesn’t get a gold in the next games?
The individual event medal tally is the most interesting one so I’m glad you thought to include it.
Agreed . I’d like to see the last individual tallies from London and Rio.
A realistic outlook on the Tokyo Summer Olympics:
USA Women
Individual Medal Tally
Ledecky – 3 G, 0 S, 0 B
Smith (Regan) – 3 G, 0 S, 0 B
Manuel – 1 G, 1 S, 0 B
King – 1 G, 0 S, 0 B
Flickinger – 0 G, 1 S or 1 B but not both
Lazor – 0 G, 1 S or 1 B but not both
Neither Ledecky or Manuel will swim the individual women’s 200 meter freestyle. Katie Ledecky will focus on the women’s 1500 meter freestyle and the women’s 4 x 200 meter freestyle relay. A women’s 200 FR/1500 FR double/double is the definition of suicidal. Simone… Read more »
Still not over the decision to include the 4×100 mixed medley relay… I mean great fun event for to watch at WC, Europeans, other big or smaller meets but don’t think it should be featured in the Olympics. This is only giving a medal chance more to 100 specialists of strong relay teams. Not sure this is exactly fair.
Meanwhile, the women’s 1500 meter freestyle was long overdue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pivXUhLwfbo
14:46
The Hungarian dude would have went 1:49 in the 200 fly. Michael Andrew would NOT have went a 1:56 in the IM, would have most likely went a 157.1 or maybe even 157.0
Hali Flickinger is not beating a fully tapered Regan Smith in the women’s 200 meter butterfly. Not in 2020 or 2021.
Dressel x Mizuno giving me the feels right now
Better days
Speedo downvoted