The Olympics That Would Have Been: Dressel, Manuel, Ledecky Lead Medal Tallies

Following our “The Trials That Would Have Been” series, where we predicted how the 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials would’ve played out had the event not been cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic, last week featured a similar series, “The Olympics That Would Have Been”,  for the postponed Tokyo Olympic Games.

The results were hypothetical, looking at how the events may have played out based on the information available on each athlete’s form prior to the pandemic. Below is an analysis of the results.

When looking at the final medal tally from the 2020 Olympics That Would Have Beenit’s no surprise that the superstars, who also have the benefit of having strong relay teams, come out on top. Caeleb Dressel leads the way with six medals, all gold, while Katie LedeckySimone Manuel and Cate Campbell finished with five medals.

Important note for the medal tallies: for the purpose of this exercise, medals were only counted for the swimmers projected to swim in the final of each relay.

Ledecky, Manuel, Regan SmithLilly King and Ryan Murphy tied for second in gold medals with three. Check out the individual medal tally below:

Name Nation Gold Silver Bronze Total
Caeleb Dressel USA 6 6
Katie Ledecky USA 3 1 1 5
Simone Manuel USA 3 1 1 5
Regan Smith USA 3 1 4
Ryan Murphy USA 3 1 4
Lilly King USA 3 3
Cate Campbell AUS 2 3 5
Ariarne Titmus AUS 2 2 4
Evgeny Rylov RUS 2 2 4
Emma McKeon AUS 2 2 4
Daiya Seto JPN 2 1 3
Ryan Held USA 2 1 3
Danas Rapsys LTU 2 2
Katinka Hosszu HUN 2 2
Brianna Throssell AUS 2 2
Blake Pieroni USA 2 2
Sarah Sjostrom SWE 1 1 1 3
Adam Peaty GBR 1 1 1 3
Yuliya Efimova RUS 1 1 2
Gregorio Paltrinieri ITA 1 1 2
Kelsi Dahlia USA 1 1 2
Kristof Milak HUN 1 1
Anton Chupkov RUS 1 1
Hali Flickinger USA 1 1
Mykhailo Romanchuk UKR 1 1
Bronte Campbell AUS 1 1
Nathan Adrian USA 1 1
Andrew Seliskar USA 1 1
Kieran Smith USA 1 1
Townley Haas USA 1 1
Madi Wilson AUS 1 1
Andrew Wilson USA 1 1
Kylie Masse CAN 3 3
Maggie MacNeil CAN 3 3
Duncan Scott GBR 3 3
Taylor Ruck CAN 2 1 3
Penny Oleksiak CAN 2 1 3
Kyle Chalmers AUS 1 2 3
James Guy GBR 2 2
Kosuke Hagino JPN 2 2
Simona Quadarella ITA 1 1 2
Mack Horton AUS 1 1 2
Minna Atherton AUS 1 1 2
Melanie Margalis USA 1 1 2
Matthew Wilson AUS 1 1 2
Mitch Larkin AUS 1 1 2
Andrei Minakov RUS 1 1 2
Kayla Sanchez CAN 1 1 2
Luke Greenbank GBR 1 1 2
Vladislav Grinev RUS 1 1 2
Wang Jianjiahe CHN 2 2
Clyde Lewis AUS 2 2
Yui Ohashi JPN 1 1
Ilya Shymanovich BLR 1 1
Xu Jiayu CHN 1 1
Sydney Pickrem CAN 1 1
Gabriele Detti ITA 1 1
Ippei Watanabe JPN 1 1
Annie Lazor USA 1 1
Florent Manaudou FRA 1 1
Vladimir Morozov RUS 1 1
Kliment Kolesnikov RUS 1 1
Tom Dean GBR 1 1
Matthew Richards GBR 1 1
Katie McLaughlin USA 1 1
Kelsey Wog CAN 1 1
Jessica Hansen AUS 1 1
Chase Kalisz USA 1 1
Elijah Winnington AUS 1 1
Ye Shiwen CHN 1 1
Arno Kamminga NED 1 1
Katsuhiro Matsumoto JPN 1 1
Benedetta Pilato ITA 1 1
Luca Urlando USA 1 1
Henrik Christiansen NOR 1 1
Boglarka Kapas HUN 1 1
Tatjana Schoenmaker RSA 1 1
Michael Andrew USA 1 1
Chad Le Clos RSA 1 1
Kaylee McKeown AUS 1 1
Kristian Gkolomeev GRE 1 1
Pernille Blume DEN 1 1
Florian Wellbrock GER 1 1
Mallory Comerford USA 1 1
Abbey Weitzeil USA 1 1
Erika Brown USA 1 1
Jack Cartwright AUS 1 1
Cameron McEvoy AUS 1 1
Alexander Graham AUS 1 1
Emily Overholt CAN 1 1
Charlotte Atkinson GBR 1 1
Freya Anderson GBR 1 1
Kirill Prigoda RUS 1 1

When isolating for individual events only, we see that Daiya SetoDanas Rapsys and Katinka Hosszu all had standout meets with two gold medals, while Sarah Sjostrom and Ariarne Titmus, Seto and Smith joined Dressel and Ledecky with 3+ individual medals.

Check out the medal tally from individual events below:

Name Nation Gold Silver Bronze Total
Katie Ledecky USA 3 1 4
Caeleb Dressel USA 3 3
Daiya Seto JPN 2 1 3
Regan Smith USA 2 1 3
Danas Rapsys LTU 2 2
Katinka Hosszu HUN 2 2
Ariarne Titmus AUS 1 2 1 3
Sarah Sjostrom SWE 1 1 1 3
Ryan Murphy USA 1 1 2
Yuliya Efimova RUS 1 1 2
Gregorio Paltrinieri ITA 1 1 2
Cate Campbell AUS 1 1 2
Evgeny Rylov RUS 1 1 2
Adam Peaty GBR 1 1
Lilly King USA 1 1
Kristof Milak HUN 1 1
Anton Chupkov RUS 1 1
Hali Flickinger USA 1 1
Simone Manuel USA 1 1
Mykhailo Romanchuk UKR 1 1
Kosuke Hagino JPN 2 2
Kylie Masse CAN 2 2
Simona Quadarella ITA 1 1 2
Wang Jianjiahe CHN 2 2
Mack Horton AUS 1 1
Yui Ohashi JPN 1 1
Maggie MacNeil CAN 1 1
Ilya Shymanovich BLR 1 1
Duncan Scott GBR 1 1
Xu Jiayu CHN 1 1
Taylor Ruck CAN 1 1
Sydney Pickrem CAN 1 1
Gabriele Detti ITA 1 1
Ippei Watanabe JPN 1 1
Kyle Chalmers AUS 1 1
Annie Lazor USA 1 1
Andrei Minakov RUS 1 1
Florent Manaudou FRA 1 1
Chase Kalisz USA 1 1
Elijah Winnington AUS 1 1
Ye Shiwen CHN 1 1
Kelsi Dahlia USA 1 1
Arno Kamminga NED 1 1
Katsuhiro Matsumoto JPN 1 1
Minna Atherton AUS 1 1
Benedetta Pilato ITA 1 1
Luca Urlando USA 1 1
Melanie Margalis USA 1 1
Henrik Christiansen NOR 1 1
Matthew Wilson AUS 1 1
Boglarka Kapas HUN 1 1
Ryan Held USA 1 1
Tatjana Schoenmaker RSA 1 1
Mitch Larkin AUS 1 1
Michael Andrew USA 1 1
Chad Le Clos RSA 1 1
Kaylee McKeown AUS 1 1
Kristian Gkolomeev GRE 1 1
Pernille Blume DEN 1 1
Florian Wellbrock GER 1 1

Check out a full list of the medalists, event-by-event, below:

Event Gold Silver Bronze
Men’s 50m Freestyle Caeleb Dressel (USA) – 21.08 OR Florent Manaudou (FRA) – 21.21 Kristian Gkolomeev (GRE) – 21.32
Men’s 100m Freestyle Caeleb Dressel (USA) – 46.73 WR Kyle Chalmers (AUS) – 46.96 Ryan Held (USA) – 47.30
Men’s 200m Freestyle Danas Rapsys (LTU) – 1:43.64 Duncan Scott (GBR) – 1:44.72 Katsuhiro Matsumoto (JPN) – 1:44.86
Men’s 400m Freestyle Danas Rapsys (LTU) – 3:41.67 Mack Horton (AUS) – 3:42.49 Elijah Winnington (AUS) – 3:43.23
Men’s 800m Freestyle Gregorio Paltrinieri (ITA) – 7:38.76 Gabriele Detti (ITA) – 7:39.36 Henrik Christiansen (NOR) – 7:41.88
Men’s 1500m Freestyle Mykhailo Romanchuk (UKR) – 14:35.53 Gregorio Paltrinieri (ITA) – 14:36.58 Florian Wellbrock (GER) – 14:38.33
Men’s 100m Backstroke Ryan Murphy (USA) – 51.69 WR Xu Jiayu (CHN) – 51.78 Evgeny Rylov (RUS) – 52.19
Men’s 200m Backstroke Evgeny Rylov (RUS) – 1:52.95 OR Ryan Murphy (USA) – 1:53.75 Mitch Larkin (AUS) – 1:54.43
Men’s 100m Breaststroke Adam Peaty (GBR) – 56.32 WR Ilya Shymanovich (BLR) – 57.97 Arno Kamminga (NED) – 58.21
Men’s 200m Breaststroke Anton Chupkov (RUS) – 2:06.15 Ippei Watanabe (JPN) – 2:06.54 Matthew Wilson (AUS) – 2:06.72
Men’s 100m Butterfly Caeleb Dressel (USA) – 49.26 WR Andrei Minakov (RUS) – 50.63 Chad Le Clos (RSA) – 50.74
Men’s 200m Butterfly Kristof Milak (HUN) – 1:50.54 WR Daiya Seto (JPN) – 1:52.80 Luca Urlando (USA) – 1:53.15
Men’s 200m IM Daiya Seto (JPN) – 1:55.23 Kosuke Hagino (JPN) – 1:55.71 Michael Andrew (USA) – 1:56.03
Men’s 400m IM Daiya Seto (JPN) – 4:04.91 Kosuke Hagino (JPN) – 4:06.94 Chase Kalisz (USA) – 4:07.15
Men’s 4x100m Free Relay USA – 3:08.33 Russia – 3:08.83 Australia – 3:09.68
Men’s 4x200m Free Relay USA – 7:00.32 Great Britain – 7:00.44 Australia – 7:00.50
Men’s 4x100m Medley Relay USA – 3:27.47 OR Great Britain – 3:27.81 Russia – 3:28.27
Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay USA – 3:37.15 WR Australia – 3:39.00 Great Britain – 3:40.16
Women’s 50m Freestyle Cate Campbell (AUS) – 23.92 Sarah Sjostrom (SWE) – 23.97 Pernille Blume (DEN) – 24.06
Women’s 100m Freestyle Simone Manuel (USA) – 51.81 OR Cate Campbell (AUS) – 52.17 Sarah Sjostrom (SWE) – 52.26
Women’s 200m Freestyle Ariarne Titmus (AUS) – 1:54.14 Taylor Ruck (CAN) – 1:54.33 Katie Ledecky (USA) – 1:54.49
Women’s 400m Freestyle Katie Ledecky (USA) – 3:56.65 Ariarne Titmus (AUS) – 3:58.04 Wang Jianjiahe (CHN) – 4:01.40
Women’s 800m Freestyle Katie Ledecky (USA) – 8:04.46 WR Ariarne Titmus (AUS) – 8:12.89 Simona Quadarella (ITA) – 8:13.68
Women’s 1500m Freestyle Katie Ledecky (USA) – 15:19.01 WR Simona Quadarella (ITA) – 15:39.78 Wang Jianjiahe (CHN) – 15:47.79
Women’s 100m Backstroke Regan Smith (USA) – 56.87 WR Kylie Masse (CAN) – 58.08 Minna Atherton (AUS) – 58.26
Women’s 200m Backstroke Regan Smith (USA) – 2:02.79 WR Kylie Masse (CAN) – 2:05.44 Kaylee McKeown (AUS) – 2:05.73
Women’s 100m Breaststroke Lilly King (USA) – 1:03.96 WR Yuliya Efimova (RUS) – 1:04.65 Benedetta Pilato (ITA) – 1:05.61
Women’s 200m Breaststroke Yuliya Efimova (RUS) – 2:19.49 OR Annie Lazor (USA) – 2:20.68 Tatjana Schoenmaker (RSA) – 2:21.71
Women’s 100m Butterfly Sarah Sjostrom (SWE) – 55.46 WR Maggie MacNeil (CAN) – 55.55 Kelsi Dahlia (USA) – 56.35
Women’s 200m Butterfly Hali Flickinger (USA) – 2:05.57 Regan Smith (USA) – 2:06.16 Boglarka Kapas (HUN) – 2:06.78
Women’s 200m IM Katinka Hosszu (HUN) – 2:06.72 Sydney Pickrem (CAN) – 2:08.47 Melanie Margalis (USA) – 2:08.68
Women’s 400m IM Katinka Hosszu (HUN) – 4:27.92 Yui Ohashi (JPN) – 4:30.56 Ye Shiwen (CHN) – 4:31.68
Women’s 4x100m Free Relay Australia – 3:29.99 WR Canada – 3:30.72 USA – 3:30.87
Women’s 4x200m Free Relay Australia – 7:41.29 WR USA – 7:41.31 Canada – 7:42.55
Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay USA – 3:49.39 WR Canada/Australia – 3:51.81

Below find a list of the first-time Olympic medalists based on the hypothetical results:

  • Regan Smith
  • Ariarne Titmus
  • Danas Rapsys
  • Brianna Throssell
  • Kristof Milak
  • Hali Flickinger
  • Mykhailo Romanchuk
  • Andrew Seliskar
  • Kieran Smith
  • Madi Wilson
  • Andrew Wilson
  • Maggie MacNeil
  • Simona Quadarella
  • Minna Atherton
  • Matthew Wilson
  • Andrei Minakov
  • Kayla Sanchez
  • Luke Greenbank
  • Vladislav Grinev
  • Wang Jianjiahe
  • Clyde Lewis
  • Yui Ohashi
  • Ilya Shymanovich
  • Sydney Pickrem
  • Ippei Watanabe
  • Annie Lazor
  • Kliment Kolesnikov
  • Tom Dean
  • Matthew Richards
  • Katie McLaughlin
  • Kelsey Wog
  • Jessica Hansen
  • Elijah Winnington
  • Katsuhiro Matsumoto
  • Benedetta Pilato
  • Luca Urlando
  • Henrik Christiansen
  • Tatjana Schoenmaker
  • Michael Andrew
  • Kaylee McKeown
  • Kristian Gkolomeev
  • Florian Wellbrock
  • Mallory Comerford
  • Erika Brown
  • Jack Cartwright
  • Alexander Graham
  • Charlotte Atkinson
  • Freya Anderson
  • Kirill Prigoda

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Entgegen
1 month ago

Dressel x Mizuno giving me the feels right now

Crown
Reply to  Entgegen
1 month ago

Better days

Sun Yangs Hammer
Reply to  Entgegen
1 month ago

Speedo downvoted

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
1 month ago

Hali Flickinger is not beating a fully tapered Regan Smith in the women’s 200 meter butterfly. Not in 2020 or 2021.

AllLivesMatter
1 month ago

The Hungarian dude would have went 1:49 in the 200 fly. Michael Andrew would NOT have went a 1:56 in the IM, would have most likely went a 157.1 or maybe even 157.0

About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James swam five years at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario, specializing in the 200 free, back and IM. He finished up his collegiate swimming career in 2018, graduating with a bachelor's degree in economics. In 2019 he completed his graduate degree in sports journalism. Prior to going to Laurentian, James swam …

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