In our addition to our new power rankings format, we’re trying out something else new this year: NCAA pre-season predictions.
Followers of sports like baseball or football will be familiar with writers from major sports publications making their preseason predictions about Most Valuable Players, World Series or Super Bowl champions, and the like. We know swimming fans enjoy making their predictions about upcoming events, or even whole seasons, just as much as any other fans out there, so we decided to share own predictions about the upcoming NCAA season with our readers.
We’re not quite still in the college swimming preseason as some teams have started competition, but even some of the major Division I squads haven’t yet had their first official meet, so we figured it’s still early enough to call these “preseason” picks.
We polled our staff, did our research, and came up with our six-months-out best guesses as to who would be standing atop the awards podium for each event at the 2018 NCAA Division I championships, and without any further ado, below are our choices by writer:
Braden | Lauren | Jared | James | Hannah | Morgan | Karl | Robert | Top Pick | |
800 Free Relay | NC State | NC State | Texas | Florida | NC State | NC State | NC State | NC State | NC State |
200 Free Relay | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | NC State | NC State | Cal | Cal |
500 Free | Townley Haas (Texas) | Fynn Minuth (South Carolina) | Felix Auboeck (Michigan) | Felix Auboeck (Michigan) | Townley Haas (Texas) | Felix Auboeck (Michigan) | Felix Auboeck (Michigan) | Townley Haas (Texas) | Auboeck |
200 IM | Mark Szaranek (Florida) | Mark Szaranek (Florida) | Andreas Vazaios (NC State) | Mark Szaranek (Florida) | Mark Szaranek (Florida) | Mark Szaranek (Florida) | Jan Switkowski (Florida) | Mark Szaranek (Florida) | Szaranek |
50 Free | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) |
Caeleb Dressel (Florida) |
Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) |
Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Dressel |
400 Medley Relay | Texas | Texas | USC | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal |
400 IM | Andrew Seliskar (Cal) | Abrahm DeVine (Stanford) | Andrew Seliskar (Cal) | Abrahm DeVine (Stanford) | Abrahm DeVine (Stanford) | Abrahm DeVine (Stanford) | Andrew Seliskar (Cal) | Andrew Seliskar (Cal) | Seliskar/ DeVine |
100 Fly | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Joseph Schooling (Texas) | Dressel |
200 Free | Townley Haas (Texas) | Blake Pieroni (Indiana) | Townley Haas (Texas) | Townley Haas (Texas) | Townley Haas (Texas) |
Townley Haas (Texas) |
Dean Farris (Harvard) | Townley Haas (Texas) | Haas |
100 Breast | Ian Finnerty (Indiana) | Connor Hoppe (Cal) |
Jacob Montague (Michigan) | Connor Hoppe (Cal) | Carsten Vissering (USC) | Connor Hoppe (Cal) | Connor Hoppe (Cal) |
Carsten Vissering (USC) | Hoppe |
100 Back | John Shebat (Texas) | John Shebat (Texas) | John Shebat (Texas) | Justin Ress (NC State) | John Shebat (Texas) | John Shebat (Texas) | John Shebat (Texas) |
John Shebat (Texas) | Shebat |
200 Medley Relay | Cal | NC State | NC State | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal |
1650 Free | Felix Auboeck (Michigan) |
Akaram Mahmoud (South Carolina) |
Felix Auboeck (Michigan) |
Felix Auboeck (Michigan) |
Akaram Mahmoud (South Carolina) |
Felix Auboeck (Michigan) |
Akaram Mahmoud (South Carolina) |
Felix Auobeck (Michigan) |
Auboeck |
200 Back | Patrick Mulcare (USC) | John Shebat (Texas) | John Shebat (Texas) | John Shebat (Texas) | Patrick Mulcare (USC) | John Shebat (Texas) | John Shebat (Texas) |
John Shebat (Texas) | Shebat |
100 Free | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Caeleb Dressel (Florida) | Dressel |
200 Breast | Carlos Claverie (Louisville) | Mauro Castillo Luna (Texas A&M) | Mauro Castillo Luna (Texas A&M) | Jonathan Tybur (Texas A&M) | Carlos Claverie (Louisville) | Carlos Claverie (Louisville) | Conner McHugh (Minnesota) | Andrew Seliskar (Cal) | Claverie |
200 Fly | Zheng Quah (Cal) | Zheng Quah (Cal) | Zheng Quah (Cal) | Joseph Schooling (Texas) | Zheng Quah (Cal) | Joseph Schooling (Texas) | Zheng Quah (Cal) |
Joseph Schooling (Texas) | Quah |
400 Free Relay | Cal | Florida | NC State | NC State | Florida | NC State | NC State | Texas | NC State |
If our collective crystal ball is correct, here will be some of the highlights of the 2018 Men’s NCAA championships:
- Florida’s Caeleb Dressel will complete his four-year sweep of the 50 free, and he’ll earn wins in the 100 free and the 100 fly once again. Dressel’s wins in the 50 and 100 free were our only unanimous picks.
- John Shebat of Texas and Felix Auboeck of Michigan will be our other multiple-event winners, with Shebat sweeping the backstrokes and Auboeck the distance events.
- Another Gator, Mark Szaranek will win the 200 IM outright after tying with Will Licon last year.
- The 400 IM is a bit murkier; Gunnar Bentz of Georiga and Abrahm DeVine of Stanford were tied among our picks until Bentz broke his collarbone last week. While he may recover and swim at NCAAs, we decided to err on the side of caution: two of the Bentz votes went to Seliskar and one went to DeVine, meaning those two swimmers are now tied.
- With Licon gone from the breaststroke events as well, both of those races look wide open, with Connor Hoppe (Cal) and Carlos Claverie (Louisville) earning the most votes among our writers.
- Texas’s Townley Haas will win his third-straight title in the 200 free, remaining undefeated in the event in which he is the fastest man ever.
- Joseph Schooling‘s quest to reclaim his 200 fly title will prove unsuccessful, as five of our eight writers think Cal’s Zheng Quah will take that race after an impressive showing in limited college swimming last season.
- The five relay titles will be split between NC State and Cal, as the Longhorns’ lack of a top-notch breaststroker dooms their medley relay chances, and Cal reclaims the 200 free relay title behind the likes of freshman Ryan Hoffer.
Now, again, the above descriptions are only best guesses as the season gets going. Surely some swimmers will emerge, others may take some steps back, and other picks in March are going to look a lot different than they do now. In the meantime, leave a comment and let us know what you think is going to happen.
Would love to see team predictions, also. Cal and NC State loom big according to these predictions.
I still believe Horns 4-peat this season. Might take diving to push Horns over the top this year.
Bay City Tex – while not intended truly as a ‘prediction,’ in essence that’s what our pre-season power rankings are: https://swimswam.com/2017-2018-mens-ncaa-power-rankings-first-edition/
We had Texas and Cal 1 and 2 across-the-board. The unanimity shouldn’t mislead though – it should be a much closer meet than it was last year.
PJ Stevens 100BR champ from Tennessee
The fact they put NC State for the 200 medley made my day hahaha i love how wrong these things end up being.
Haas wins 100 free. Stirring up trouble…just to piss some people off here 😉
Maybe if it were a 100 meter pool
100 meters pool and no blocks, just a push off
Plz tell me not picking litherland or bentz was a joke
Talking about 4 im ofc
Bentz has a broken collarbone, and Litherland is much better at the 400 IM LCM; see that he placed 7th last year at NCAAs in between two very strong summers (2nd to Kalisz both times)
A number of us had Bentz picked in various events before the collarbone. Hard to judge where he’ll be at now.
Would love to see Dressel lead off the 800 free relay. 1:29?
Luke Kaliszak will win the 100 back
That….. is not the craziest thing ever suggested.
Hopefully he doesn’t go pass 15m off the start
When everyone hypes up Texas for being a 200 freestyle factory yet they aren’t favorites to win the 800 free relay. LOL
Are you bragging about predictions?
They are a 200 freestyle factory. 6 years in a row in the top 8 of the 800 free relay.
800 free relay:
2017 – 2nd
2016 – 1st
2015 – 8th
2014 – 5th
2013 – 5th
2012 – 1st
until they got 9th in 2011
The only teams with longer streaks are Cal and Texas.
Plus Texas won in 2010 and 2009 too…
You need to include Florida in that streak. I looked back to 2011 and believe that is extends longer than that.
Well, every Olympic year (at least 2012,2016) they won the 800 Free relay