2023 U.S. Trials Previews: Ledecky, Grimes Miles Ahead of the Field In Women’s 1500 Free

2023 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

• June 27 – July 1, 2023
• Indianapolis, IN
• Indiana University Natatorium
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• Psych Sheet (pre-scratch)
• SwimSwam Preview Index

WOMEN’S 1500 FREESTYLE — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record – 15:20.48, Katie Ledecky (2018)
• American Record – 15:20.48, Katie Ledecky (2018)
• U.S. Open Record — 15:20.48, Katie Ledecky (2018)
• 2022 U.S. International Team Trials Champion – Katie Ledecky (15:38.99)
• World Aquatics ‘A’ Cut – 16:29.57

THE GREATEST WOMEN’S DISTANCE SWIMMER OF ALL-TIME

Katie Ledecky is in a class of her own in the women’s 1500 freestyle, and until someone rises to challenge her, she’ll continue to be in her own category. Ledecky’s dominance in the 1500 is very similar to that of the 800, she’s just swum the 800 more times than the 1500. She holds the 14-fastest times in history in the event and is 18 seconds faster than the second-fastest performer of all-time (Lotte Friis).

Ledecky is the only swimmer in history to have been under 15:30 in the event, a feat which she has accomplished five times in her career, including her world record performance of 15:20.48. She’s also never had a “down” year in the event—her slowest season-best time over the last decade of 15:36 from 2013 broke the world record at the time by six seconds.

Here are Ledecky’s full year-by-year top marks in the 1500 dating back to 2013:

• 2013 – 15:36.53
• 2014 – 15:28.36
• 2015 – 15:25.48
• 2016 – N/A (not an Olympic event at the time, so she didn’t swim it that year)
• 2017 – 15:31.82
• 2018 – 15:20.48
• 2019 – 15:35.98
• 2020 – 15:29.51
• 2021 – 15:35.35
• 2022 – 15:30.15

On top of that, Ledecky has already been 15:37.99 this year, which while slower than her previous season bests, is still faster than anyone other swimmer in history has gone in the event.

Ledecky comes into these Trials as the top seed by almost 15 seconds, entering with the 15:30.15 she swam to win gold at last summer’s World Championships. Given her level of consistency in the event over the course of her entire career, coupled with how well she’s been swimming since joining the Florida pro group, we can very reasonably expect that Ledecky will be somewhere in the 15:20-15:35 range this week.

SANDPIPERS PAST AND PRESENT

While it’s rare that we would give a club team its own section in a Nationals preview, in this case, it’s very well deserved. There are 50 swimmers entered in the women’s 1500 free going into the meet, and five of those 50 swimmers are either Sandpipers of Nevada or Sandpipers alumni. Also, the reigning Olympic and World Championship silver medalists in the event were both Sandpipers at the time they earned those medals.

We’ll start with the defending runner-up and defending World Championship silver medalist, Katie Grimes. At last year’s International Team Trials, Grimes came in second with what was then a lifetime best of 15:51.36. She would go on to earn the silver medal in Budapest, finishing behind Ledecky with a 15:44.89. That performance stands as Grimes’ career best in the event, making her the ninth-fastest performer of all-time in the event and the fourth-fastest American ever.

Grimes has a lot going for her as she enters this week’s Trials. Not only is she the second seed and reigning World silver medalist, she’s already been 15:56.27 this year, which makes her the second-fastest (behind Ledecky) by a significant margin. Given that, it feels like Grimes has the edge to earn that second roster spot for the women’s 1500 at Worlds.

Most likely to be Grimes’ primary challenger for that second Worlds roster spot is former Sandpipers teammate Erica Sullivan. The reigning Olympic silver medalist in the 1500 free, Sullivan enters these Trials as the seventh seed in the event at 16:24.45. Sullivan was dealing with a shoulder injury last spring and into the summer, so she sat out of the 2022 International Team Trials. She would end up competing at the 2022 U.S. Nationals, where she clocked her season best of 16:26.90.

While her 2022 season-best fell well short of her career best 15:41.41, Sullivan has already gone faster than her 2022 best this year, having clocked a 16:24.45 about five weeks ago. She’ll still have to take a ton of time off that mark to get down to her Olympic silver medal performance of 15:41.41, however, it still shows that she’s trending in the right direction in her effort to get back to her top times.

Sullivan’s 15:41.41 from the Tokyo Olympics makes her the fifth-fastest performer of all-time in the event, and the second-fastest American, trailing only Ledecky. She has her work cut out for her, especially given the continued rise of her former teammate Grimes, however, Sullivan has proven she has what it takes to go toe-to-toe with anyone outside of Ledecky in this event.

We also can’t overlook 16-year-old Sandpiper Claire Weinstein, who enters as the third seed in the event with a 16:09.85. That time stands as Weinstein’s lifetime best in the event, which she swam in April of this year at the Fran Crippen Swim Meet of Champions. Last year, Weinstein proved herself to be a world-class swimmer in the 200 free, swimming a 1:56.71 at the World Championships at just 15 years of age, and so far this year, she’s proving she’s also a force to be reckoned with in the 400, 800, and 1500 free. In true Sandpipers fashion, Weinstein has also shown herself to be a skilled open water swimmer lately as well. Though she’s well behind Grimes on the psych sheet, Weinstein is the only swimmer other than Ledecky and Grimes to be seeded under 16:10 coming into the meet. She’ll also be racing in the middle of the pool due to her third seed, which could put Weinstein in a good position racing-wise.

Macky Hodges, who joined the Sandpipers of Nevada at the end of last summer, is also entered in the 1500 at these Trials. Historically more of a sprint-oriented freestyler, Hodges has improved drastically in her distance swimming in the past year. She earned the 23rd seed in the event at this meet thanks to her lifetime best performance of 16:42.00, which she, like Weinstein, swam at the Fran Crippen SMOC in April.

Moreover, Hodges hadn’t swum the 1500 at all prior to this year. Her first time swimming the event came at the Pro Swim Series in Fort Lauderdale in early March, where she swam a 16:57.69. Hodges isn’t entered in any other events on Saturday, so it seems likely she will end up racing the 1500 this week. She has also notably committed to represent the U.S. at the World University Games in July, so this could perhaps be a dry-run for that event.

Finally, Sandpipers alum Paige Kuwata, now a Louisville Cardinal, will be racing as well. Kuwata enters the meet as the 29th seed, coming in with a 16:47.75. Importantly, that seed time is well off her lifetime best in the event, which stands at 16:27.73 from the Olympic Trials in 2021. Kuwata didn’t record any personal bests in the yards distance freestyle events during her first season with Louisville, however, she was very close, going one second slower than her PBs in both the 1000 and 1650 free this NCAA season. That could easily be chalked up to her adjusting to a new training program, so there’s no reason to project too much into her collegiate times from this season.

COLLEGE DISTANCE STARS

There are a number of current NCAA distance stars who will be vying for international roster spots this week in Indianapolis. Leading the way on the psych sheet is Indiana’s Mariah Denigan, who comes in as the fourth seed with a time of 16:12.44. She’s coming off a great sophomore campaign with the Hoosiers, wherein she posted career bests in the yards 500 free and 1650 free. Denigan’s seed of 16:12.44 is also her lifetime best in the event, which she swam at last summer’s US Nationals.

Right beside Denigan is Alabama’s Kensey McMahon, who enters as the fifth seed with a 16:16.22. Denigan has been under 16:10 before, having swum a 16:09.80 at the 2019 US Nationals. She’s been just a bit up and down in the event since clocking her personal best, swimming a top time of 16:38.41 in 2020, and going her 16:16.09 in 2021. She didn’t race the event last year.

Given how little she’s raced the event recently, it makes it hard to project her for this meet, however, she swam well this past NCAA season, so something around her seed time seems like a safe bet.

Next up we have perhaps one of the most interesting distance storylines of this meet. Wisconsin’s Paige McKenna enters the meet as the 30th seed in the event, coming in with a yards time of 15:40.84 in the 1650 free. McKenna has a lifetime best in the LCM 1500 free of 16:26.49, however, that performance was from the 2019 U.S. Nationals, when McKenna was just 16 years old.

The last time McKenna raced the 1500 was in 2021, which means we haven’t seen her race the event since heading to Wisconsin to begin her collegiate career. A top distance swimmer in the NCAA, it will be very interesting to see how McKenna fares this week in Indy.

Georgia’s Abby McCulloh is seeded 16th heading into the meet, coming in with a 16:31.48. Importantly, she just swam that time a few weeks ago at the Bulldog Summer Invite. McCulloh is an excellent yards 1650 freestyler, having a personal best of 15:49.87. Given that yards mile time, we could definitely see McCulloh take more time off her 16:31 this week.

Florida’s Caroline Pennington is seeded right behind McCulloh, coming in as the 17th seed (16:33.49). We haven’t seen a ton out of Pennington since her move to Florida, however, she swam her 16:33.49 at the Pro Swim Series in Fort Lauderdale in March, which presumably wasn’t treated as a peak meet for her. It’s hard to project her given her lack of racing recently, however, taking Florida’s excellent distance program into account, it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see Pennington make a splash this week.

YOUNG RISING STARS

We already touched on a few of the young rising distance stars in the U.S. in the Sandpipers sections, however, we have no shortage of young distance talent at the present moment. Sarasota Sharks’ Michaela Mattes comes into this meet as the sixth seed with a 16:23.44. Mattes has always been an incredible distance swimmer and she’s coming off a terrific yards season, wherein she went 16:00 in the yards 1650. Her 16:23 seed time is also her lifetime best in the 1500 and was swum in April of this year. Mattes was also the Junior Pan Pacs gold medalist in the 1500 free last summer.

La Mirada Armada’s Kayla Han, one of the youngest swimmers in this field having just turned 15, is the eighth seed, so she’ll be racing with the fastest heat in finals. Han clocked her lifetime best of 16:26.92 in late March at a Sectional meet. She’s been on the radar as an up-and-coming star for the past few years, since qualifying for the 2020 (2021) Olympic Trials at just 12 years old.

Next, we have 18-year-olds Hayden Miller and Maddie Waggoner. A Wisconsin recruit out of the Jersey Wahoos, Waggoner comes in as the ninth seed with a 16:27.69. That time marks her personal best and was set last July. As the ninth seed, provided no one ahead of her scratches, Waggoner will be the top seed in the second-fastest heat on Saturday.

Miller, who recently completed her freshman season at Florida and has since announced her transfer to Texas A&M, comes in as the tenth seed with a 16:28.28. As the tenth seed, Miller will be right next to Waggoner in that second-fastest heat on Saturday. Her seed time is also her personal best in the event, and was set last August at the 2022 Speedo Summer Junior Nationals.

Following Miller and Waggoner are Scarlet Aquatics teammates Kate Hurst and Chloe Kim. Hurst, 17, and Kim, 15, have nearly identical personal bests in the event. Hurst has been 16:28.51, which she swam this March at a Sectional, while Kim’s personal best and seed time is 16:28.77, which she swam at Junior Nationals last August.

Also set to compete in that second-fastest heat are rising college freshmen Jillian Cox and Cavan Gormsen. Cox, a Longhorn Aquatics product who is set to begin her collegiate career at Texas this fall, is the 13th seed with her personal best of 16:29.16. She swam that time to finish fourth at last summer’s Junior Pan Pacs in Hawaii.

Right behind Cox is future Virginia Cavalier Cavan Gormsen, who comes in as the 14th seed with a 16:29.88. She also, coincidentally, swam that time at last summer’s Junior Pan Pacs.

SwimSwam’s Picks: 

DARK HORSE – Sierra Schmidt (Sun Devil Swimming): Arizona State pro Sierra Schmidt comes into these Trials as the 15th seed in the 1500 with a seed time of 16:30.95. While that time doesn’t necessarily jump off the page, Schmidt has been as fast as 16:06.85 in her career, a time which she swam in 2021. Especially in this field, a sub-16:10 performance would take you a long way, so if Schmidt were able to get close to her career best, she would stand a very good chance of finishing in the top eight. Moreover, the Arizona State pro group has been performing very well of late, which could be seen as an advantage for Schmidt as we head into this meet.