2023 U.S Trials Previews: Behind Ledecky, Race For Second Heats Up In Women’s 400 Free

2023 U.S. National Championships

Women’s 400 Free – By The Numbers:

The women’s 400 freestyle is one of the can’t-miss events in Fukuoka, as the current and two most recent former world record holders–Summer McIntoshAriarne Titmus, and Katie Ledecky–are set to go head-to-head.

At the national level, it would be shocking if Ledecky didn’t win in Indianapolis. The former world record holder is still the only American to crack the 4:00 mark, which she’s done consistently throughout her long career. That includes this season: she holds a season-best of 3:58.84, faster than she swam to win Trials last year. Ledecky certainly doesn’t need a full taper to qualify for Worlds in the 200-400-800-1500 free; however, she may want to get a read on her racing form before Fukuoka.

Hitting another 3:58 will be more than enough to win this race, but Ledecky could also take a run at her U.S. Open Record (3:57.94). It all depends on what she and coach Anthony Nesty decide is the meet’s focus.

Though Ledecky’s all but a lock to win, the 400 free should still be exciting for other reasons. The race for second is shaping up to be incredibly tight as veterans like Leah Smith try to hold off a crop of fast-rising juniors, headlined by the Sandpipers’ trio of Katie Grimes, Bella Simsand Claire Weinstein.

The Lethal Trio

The three Sandpipers have made an impression at practically every meet they’ve been to this season, whether in yards or meters. All three have reset their 400-meter free personal best this season.

Grimes is the fastest of the three, lowering her best to 4:05.18 in Fort Lauderdale. The 17-year-old is already qualified for World Championships in the open water events, and seems poised to take on a busy schedule in the pool as well. The 400 free is much shorter than her distance and open water events, but we do know she’s on form. She just swam her fastest 800 free since the Tokyo Olympics. Grimes was fourth in this event last year (4:06.67) and seems ready to challenge for second.

Sims out-touched Grimes for third last year, holding off her teammate by six one-hundredths. Sims has shown that she’s on form this season as well; she’s swum four best times in May alone. That includes the 400 free: she swam 4:06.41 to win the Mission Viejo Pro Swim.

Sims hasn’t made a senior international team in an individual event yet and she’ll be looking to do so for the first time this year. She was third in the 400-800-1500 free last year. The 18-year-old tends to take this race out fast and try to hold on. That she’s already hit a personal best this season implies she has more room to drop, but given the improvements she’s made this season in the sprint events, her best chance for an individual event may be in the 200 free.

Weinstein was the surprise of last year’s Trials. She’d recently moved to the Sandpipers and beat many bigger names to finish second in the 200 free, earning both an individual swim and a spot on the 4×200 free relay. Later in the meet, she finished sixth in the 400 free in 4:09.39. She’s since blown by that time, lowering her best to 4:06.24 at the Fort Lauderdale Pro Swim. With another full year of Sandpiper training under her belt, look for Weinstein to make another time drop in Indianapolis. This field projects to be so tight that she may not improve much on her sixth-place finish, but she should be much closer to the second through fifth-place finishers.

The Veterans

Veterans like Smith, Paige Madden, and Hali Flickinger aren’t going to cede roster spots to the Sandpipers without a fight, though. Last year, Smith responded to the disappointment of missing the Olympic team by qualifying for Worlds in the 400 free and 800 free. She also earned a spot on the 4×200 free relay with a third-place finish.

Smith holds a season-best of 4:06.43 from Fort Lauderdale, which slots her behind Ledecky and the three Sandpipers. Those three teenagers are likely going to be her toughest competition for the second roster spot. Last year, Smith took over second place in the race at the 150m mark and didn’t let go, touching in 4:03.15. That’s two seconds faster than Grimes’ best, which is to Smith’s advantage. She’ll likely need to produce a similar time to get back on the Worlds team. But, even if she’s on a good pace, the Sandpipers will be pushing her the entire way.

Madden was one of the U.S. Olympians in this event, finishing seventh in a personal best of 4:03.98. She opted not to contend for a 400 free Worlds roster spot last year, revealing that she’s struggled with Hashimoto’s Disease for a decade. In that same announcement, she said she was spending the rest of the summer “focusing on [her] physical and mental health.” Since then, she moved her training base to Loughborough University, training there and pursuing a master’s degree. She’s swum the 400 free at two meets since her move, with her season-best 4:10.75 coming in April at the Malmsten Open.

Madden’s coaching change makes her the race’s biggest question mark—none of the other major competitors have moved their training base in the last year. She’s quietly been racking up solid results in Europe, and she makes her return to racing in the U.S. on the season’s biggest stage. It’s quite a shift in scenery, and it’ll be our first look at Madden with a non-UVA taper. Her best bet at making the Worlds team is likely in the 200 free but we do expect her to feature in the 400 free final.

Flickinger is most known for her butterfly and IM prowess, but in the last year, she’s shown off her freestyle skill, racing the 200 and 400 free at the 2022 Trials. She finished fifth in the 400 last year (4:07.97), almost five seconds behind the second-place Smith. Flickinger returned to racing last month at the Sun Devil Open, which was her first long course meet since the 2022 Worlds. There, she clocked 4:08.69, within shouting distance of her 2022 Trials time. Flickinger’s choice to skip 2023 in-season racing might mean that she narrows down her event lineup and hones in on her typical fare. However, if she does race the 400 free, she’s a solid bet to final, but a much longer one for a roster spot.

Even More Juniors

This race, like the distance free (800/1500) events, is flooded with juniors. There are plenty of teenagers besides the Sandpipers looking to get in on the action, making the race for a spot on the Junior Worlds team as competitive as the one for Worlds. The biggest name to watch is Erin Gemmell. Gemmell had a big disappointment last season; she finished seventh in the 200 free, but wasn’t pulled onto the Worlds roster after Ledecky dropped the individual event. She’ll want to avoid a repeat of the situation, and finishing second in the 400 free would be one way to go about it.

She projects to be in the heart of the race–her season best is 4:08.11 but she’s been as fast as 4:05.07. She was eighth last year, well back of the rest of the field, which is another thing she’ll look to avoid. But, because a roster spot isn’t as certain as it is for others in this field, this meet is likely more of a focus for Gemmell, which could play to her advantage.

Other juniors to keep an eye on are Cavan Gormsen, Jillian Cox, and Michaela Mattes. Cox has been the fastest of the three (4:06.84 at Junior Pan Pacs) but their season bests are all within a second of each other. None of the three should be overlooked–if anyone ahead of them on the psych sheet has a bad morning swim, they’ll be ready to pounce.

SwimSwam’s Picks:

Place Name Season Best Lifetime Best
1 Katie Ledecky 3:58.84 3:56.46
2 Katie Grimes 4:05.18 4:05.18
3 Leah Smith 4:06.43 4:00.65
4 Bella Sims 4:06.41 4:06.41
5 Claire Weinstein 4:06.24 4:06.24
6 Erin Gemmell 4:08.11 4:05.07
7 Paige Madden 4:10.75 4:03.98
8 Hali Flickinger 4:08.69 4:06.72

Dark Horse: Kayla Han In a race that’s littered with up-and-coming juniors, Han is worth paying attention to. Newly 15, she has been on an absolute tear this season. That was on display at the Mission Viejo Pro Series, where she dropped best time after best time, including in the 400 freestyle where she went 4:10.56. This is a talented and competitive field, but Han is definitely on an upward trajectory and could upset for a spot in the final.

See all of our selections for the 2023 U.S. Nationals with the SwimSwam Preview Index here.

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Jonathan
1 year ago

Do we know if Ledecky has officially given up on competing in the 200 free individually internationally? She’s still world class in the 200, but given the top end talent in the event, it seems unlikely she will medal in this event unless she’s on A+ form, or other top swimmers are having an off meet.

Last edited 1 year ago by Jonathan
Torchbearer
Reply to  Jonathan
1 year ago

Now the 1500m is on the calendar it would make sense…

Andy
Reply to  Torchbearer
1 year ago

I’d like to see an informed discussion of how she trains for 200 and 1500 – to what extent the former affects the latter, that is: will it help her training for the longer distances if she drops the 200? Or to what extent is it a matter of not doing too much in quick succession come the race meet.

Weinstien-Smith-Ledecky-Sims
1 year ago

Leah Smith competed in the 2019 FINA World Championships, which took place in Gwangju, South Korea. At the championships, Smith won two individual medals and one relay medal.

In the 400m freestyle event, Smith won the bronze medal with a time of 4:01.29. She finished behind Ariarne Titmus from Australia and Li Bingjie from China.

Smith also won a silver medal in the 800m freestyle event, finishing with a time of 8:17.21. She was narrowly beaten by Katie Ledecky, her American teammate and one of the most dominant freestyle swimmers in the world.

In the women’s 4x200m freestyle relay, Smith swam in the preliminary heats and helped the United States qualify for the final. The team went on to win… Read more »

MCH
Reply to  Weinstien-Smith-Ledecky-Sims
1 year ago

All true statements, but I’m not sure what that has to do with 2023 Trials 4 years later.

Swimfan
Reply to  Weinstien-Smith-Ledecky-Sims
1 year ago

Wow I thought you were perfect with your information and never wrong🙄🙄🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

well 1st thing iin the 400 in gwangju LI bingjie finshied off the podium in the 400, that race was the first titmus beat ledecky and ledecky was Ill all that week or did you forget? It went gold-titmus, silver-ledecky, bronze-smith

2nd thing-the 800 free relay the American women lost to Australia

and 3rd thing :eh smith was 5th in the final of the 800 free, th4 time you mention was actually her prelim time and she had the fast time out of prelims she went 8:17.1 In the final

Sub13
Reply to  Weinstien-Smith-Ledecky-Sims
1 year ago

Titmus beat Ledecky in the 400 at Gwangju. Why do you say Smith was third to Titmus and Bingjie?

Also Australia broke the World Record in the 4×200 final so USA definitely didn’t win gold.

snailSpace
Reply to  Sub13
1 year ago

This is the imitation-relay-names-guy. Look at the spelling of Weinstien.

Weinstein-Smith-Ledecky-Sims
Reply to  snailSpace
1 year ago

…… often imitated, never duplicated.

Sub13
Reply to  snailSpace
1 year ago

Hahaha I see. Well the parody account has nailed the smug matter-of-fact-ness

Just Saying
Reply to  Sub13
1 year ago

ChatGPT is broken. Artificial intelligence = real stupidity (at least sometimes, if not most of the time).

GTS
1 year ago

400 free would likely be the 1st event Grimes would drop, should she qualify. She has the open water 10K, where she is a big threat to medal. She would be a threat to medal in the 1500, 400 IM, and the 800 as well, should she qualify.

Snowpipers of Alaska
1 year ago

Not to be inflammatory, but I’d really like to see the Sandpiper swimmers step up in this event and get someone into the Top 16 for once.

Samuel Huntington
1 year ago

Gemmell has a faster PR than the Sandpipers girls. I have her ahead and securing third place. Leah Smith second.

oxyswim
1 year ago

Don’t see Hali in this unless she hasn’t made the team yet

Stuffed Up Sam
1 year ago

Psych sheet?

RMS
Reply to  Stuffed Up Sam
1 year ago

The entry deadline is today. so I’m sure the psych sheet will be available in a few days.

Hswimmer
Reply to  RMS
1 year ago

Thursday is my guess.

Marklewis
1 year ago

Whoever can swim under 4:02 will get the second spot.

I think Grimes or Sims could benefit the most from more swims on the world stage before the Olympic year.

About Sophie Kaufman

Sophie Kaufman

Sophie grew up in Boston, Massachusetts, which means yes, she does root for the Bruins, but try not to hold that against her. At 9, she joined her local club team because her best friend convinced her it would be fun. Shoulder surgery ended her competitive swimming days long ago, …

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