SwimSwam’s Way-Too-Early 2024 U.S. Olympic Team Trials Picks

We might be over a year out from the 2024 U.S. Olympic trials, but that didn’t stop the SwimSwam staff from making way-too-early predictions for what will go down at the meet.

For the purposes of this article, seven different SwimSwam writers (myself, Braden Keith, Robert Gibbs, Sophie Kaufman, Nicole Miller, Anya Pelshaw, and James Sutherland) listed their predictions for who would finish first, second, and third in each event at trials next June. This post will kick off a series of articles on Olympic Trials predictions where each individual writer will break down their picks.

There were a few trends I noticed within the picks.

Everyone thinks Caeleb Dressel will be competing again. Even though Dressel abruptly pulled out of the 2022 World Championships last June and hasn’t competed since, everyone on this prediction panel is confident that he will return come time for 2024. He was unanimously picked to win the 50 free and 100 fly, and everyone but Sophie (who had him in second) picked him to win the 100 free. If Dressel returns to the form that gave him five Olympic gold medals in 2021, he’s clearly the top American male in the sprint events. However, given his absence, his primary sprint coach Steven Jungbluth leaving his training base at Florida, and his apparent injuries, it’s understandable that prospects of his return could be uncertain.

Despite zero senior international team berths, Gretchen Walsh is the overwhelming favorite to become America’s next top female sprinter. Within our predictions, 4/7 writers picked Walsh to sweep the 50 and 100 free events, and everyone but Robert (who by contrast, didn’t have her making the team at all) picked Walsh to earn individual team spots in both the 50 and 100 free. So given that Walsh was only the third-ranked 50 freestyler and fifth-ranked 100 freestyler in America last year, what prompted everyone’s assurance that she’d rise to the top?

There are three potential factors: 1) Walsh’s U.S. nationals performance where an experiment with practice suits allowed her to get over a roadblock and hit best times in almost all her events, 2) The fact that this list was made during the NCAA season, where Walsh is currently undefeated in individual events, and 3) Her long course swims at age 16 (such as a 53.01 100 free relay split) combined with massive short course improvement could be a recipe for long course breakthrough. These factors give Walsh a very high ceiling, and it seems that most over here at SwimSwam believe in her potential.

Qualification is uncertain for swimmers like Michael Andrew and Regan Smith. The two swimmers listed have both been staples of American international teams for the last few years, and yet confidence that they will make it to Paris is relatively low. The predictions about Smith, who will be only 22 in 2024, were the most surprising—two writers have her missing the Olympic team in its entirety, three writers have her missing the team in her specialty backstroke events, and four writers have her missing the team in the 200 back, the event where she holds the world record but hasn’t made an international team in since 2019. Despite the relative pessimism surrounding Smith’s Olympic prospects, her career seems to be headed in a positive direction since she left Stanford to turn pro and train at Arizona State under Bob Bowman. She had a standout showing at the 2022 U.S. Open, where she went faster than her World trials time in the 200 back, swam a personal best in the 200 IM, and broke two U.S. Open meet records. That being said, with how competitive women’s backstroke is, nothing is ever a guarantee.

For Andrew, three writers have him missing the Olympic team, while three other writers have him only making the team in one event after he qualified for three events in 2021. Notably, nobody picked him to make the team in the 200 IM, the event he said he would focus on for the Paris Olympics. While Andrew is a multi-stroke talent for the U.S. men, factors such as the emergence of stars like Shaine Casas and Carson Foster, as well as recent mishaps (like failing to medal individually at short course worlds and missing the 100 breast final at long course worlds) have made the confidence of many of us waver.

There were seven different swimmers unanimously picked to win events. The swimmers that every single writer picked to win in an event include Katie Ledecky in the 200/400/800/1500 free, Caeleb Dressel in the 50 free and 100 fly, Bobby Finke in the 800/1500 free, Nic Fink in the 100 breast, Carson Foster in the 400 IM, and Kate Douglass in the 200 breast. Most of these unanimous picks are self-explanatory—they mainly consist of swimmers who have recently been dominant in their respective events. However, you could say that Douglass being the heavy favorite to win the 200 breast comes as a surprise, considering that Lilly King is the reigning Olympic silver medalist in the event and has a personal best (2:19.92) considerably faster than Douglass’s (2:21.43). That being said, Douglass is four years younger than King and less experienced in the event—a few more times swimming it and her improvement could be tremendous.

Roughly 52.5% of event winners picked were repeat winners from the 2020(1) U.S. Olympic trials. Out of the 196 event winner picks, 103 of them were selections of swimmers who had previously won the same event at the 2020(1) trials. And while it may seem easy to just select who won four (and in this case, three) years ago, repeat winners are rarer than you think—according to SwimmingStats CEO Daniel Takata, only 54 out of 326 Olympic trials event winners (roughly 17%) have won their event at multiple trials (with swimmers who have had event wins in multiple events, each event that they won is counted towards the 326 total). If there’s any meet where a newcomer will surprise us and unexpectedly make the team, it’s Olympic Trials. After all, it’s happened so many times before. However, it’s important to note that since these trials are only happening three years after the previous one instead of four years, we might get more repeat winners than usual.

Without further ado, here are our picks.

Men’s Picks

Yanyan Braden Robert Sophie Nicole Anya James
50 free Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel
David Curtiss Michael Andrew Michael Andrew David Curtiss David Curtiss David Curtiss Michael Andrew
Matt King David Curtiss David Curtiss Michael Andrew Brooks Curry Brooks Curry David Curtiss
100 free Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Brooks Curry Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel
Ryan Held Shaine Casas Ryan Held Caeleb Dressel Brooks Curry Brooks Curry Brooks Curry
Brooks Curry Ryan Held Brooks Curry Shaine Casas Ryan Held Matt King Matt King
Matt King Kaii Winkler Matt King Ryan Held Matt King Ryan Held Ryan Held
Zach Apple Brooks Curry Jack Alexy Matt King Shaine Casas Shaine Casas Drew Kibler
Shaine Casas Matt King Adam Chaney Drew Kibler Hunter Armstrong Drew Kibler Kieran Smith
200 free Kieran Smith Drew Kibler Kieran Smith Kieran Smith Carson Foster Luke Hobson Kieran Smith
Luke Hobson Carson Foster Drew Kibler Drew Kibler Kieran Smith Carson Foster Drew Kibler
Carson Foster Kieran Smith Carson Foster Carson Foster Luke Hobson Kieran Smith Luke Hobson
Henry McFadden Henry McFadden Henry McFadden Henry McFadden Luca Urlando Drew Kibler Carson Foster
Luca Urlando Gabriel Jett Luke Hobson Jake Magahey Drew Kibler Henry McFadden
Henry McFadden
Jake Magahey Maximus Williamson Jake Magahey Luke Hobson Jake Magahey Jake Magahey Jake Magahey
400 free Kieran Smith Kieran Smith Kieran Smith Kieran Smith Jake Magahey Carson Foster Kieran Smith
Jake Mitchell Jake Magahey Ross Dant Jake Magahey Kieran Smith Kieran Smith Jake Magahey
Jake Magahey Jake Mitchell Jake Mitchell Jake Mitchell Jake Mitchell Jake Mitchell Luke Hobson
800 free Bobby Finke Bobby Finke Bobby Finke Bobby Finke Bobby Finke Bobby Finke Bobby Finke
Will Gallant David Johnston Ross Dant David Johnston David Johnston David Johnston David Johnston
David Johnston Charlie Clark Charlie Clark Charlie Clark Charlie Clark Will Gallant Charlie Clark
1500 free Bobby Finke Bobby Finke Bobby Finke Bobby Finke Bobby Finke Bobby Finke Bobby Finke
Alec Enyeart Charlie Clark David Johnston Will Gallant David Johnston Will Gallant Charlie Clark
David Johnston David Johnston Charlie Clark David Johnston Charlie Clark David Johnston David Johnston
100 back Hunter Armstrong Hunter Armstrong Ryan Murphy Hunter Armstrong Hunter Armstrong Hunter Armstrong Ryan Murphy
Daniel Diehl Shaine Casas Daniel Diehl Daniel Diehl Shaine Casas Ryan Murphy
Hunter Armstrong
Ryan Murphy Ryan Murphy Hunter Armstrong Ryan Murphy Ryan Murphy Shaine Casas Shaine Casas
200 back Ryan Murphy Shaine Casas Ryan Murphy Ryan Murphy Ryan Murphy Ryan Murphy Ryan Murphy
Jack Aikins Ryan Murphy Jack Aikins Shaine Casas Shaine Casas Shaine Casas Shaine Casas
Daniel Diehl Daniel Diehl Shaine Casas Daniel Diehl Daniel Diehl Jack Aikins Daniel Diehl
100 breast Nic Fink Nic Fink Nic Fink Nic Fink Nic Fink Nic Fink Nic Fink
Max McHugh Josh Matheny Michael Andrew Michael Andrew Matt Fallon Josh Matheny Michael Andrew
Josh Matheny Michael Andrew Max McHugh Josh Matheny Josh Matheny Kevin Houseman Josh Matheny
200 breast Matt Fallon Matt Fallon Nic Fink Nic Fink Matt Fallon Matt Fallon Matt Fallon
Nic Fink AJ Pouch Matt Fallon Matt Fallon AJ Pouch Nic Fink Nic Fink
AJ Pouch Nic Fink Will Licon AJ Pouch Nic Fink AJ Pouch AJ Pouch
100 fly Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel Caeleb Dressel
Dare Rose Thomas Heilman Thomas Heilman Thomas Heilman Thomas Heilman Shaine Casas
Thomas Heilman
Thomas Heilman Michael Andrew Shaine Casas Shaine Casas Michael Andrew Aiden Hayes Luca Urlando
200 fly Luca Urlando Gabriel Jett Luca Urlando Thomas Heilman Luca Urlando Carson Foster Luca Urlando
Carson Foster Thomas Heilman Carson Foster Gabriel Jett Gabriel jett Gabriel Jett Gabriel Jett
Gabriel Jett Luca Urlando Zach Harting Luca Urlando Thomas Heilman Aaron Shackell Aaron Shackell
200 IM Carson Foster Shaine Casas Carson Foster Shaine Casas Carson Foster Carson Foster Carson Foster
Shaine Casas Carson Foster Chase Kalisz Carson Foster Shaine Casas Shaine Casas Shaine Casas
Michael Andrew Chase Kalisz Shaine Casas Baylor Nelson Michael Andrew Baylor Nelson Michael Andrew
400 IM Carson Foster Carson Foster Carson Foster Carson Foster Carson Foster Carson Foster Carson Foster
Chase Kalisz Baylor Nelson Chase Kalisz Maximus Williamson Chase Kalisz Bobby Finke Chase Kalisz
Bobby Finke Maximus Williamson Jay Litherland Bobby Finke Bobby Finke Chase Kalisz Kevin Vargas

Women’s Picks

Yanyan Braden Robert Sophie Nicole Anya James
50 free Gretchen Walsh Gretchen Walsh Abbey Weitzeil Gretchen Walsh Torri Huske Gretchen Walsh Gretchen Walsh
Claire Curzan Claire Curzan Simone Manuel Claire Curzan Gretchen Walsh Claire Curzan Claire Curzan
Erika Brown Abbey Weitzeil Claire Curzan Abbey Weitzeil Claire Curzan Abbey Weitzeil Torri Huske
100 free Gretchen Walsh Gretchen Walsh Torri Huske Gretchen Walsh Gretchen Walsh Gretchen Walsh Torri Huske
Torri Huske Kate Douglass Claire Curzan Torri Huske Torri Huske Claire Curzan Gretchen Walsh
Kate Douglass Torri Huske Simone Manuel Claire Curzan Claire Curzan Torri Huske Claire Curzan
Claire Curzan Abbey Weitzeil Abbey Weitzeil Abbey Weitzeil Simone Manuel Kate Douglass Kate Douglass
Abbey Weitzeil Claire Curzan Erin Gemmell Kate Douglass Anna Moesch Abbey Weitzeil Abbey Weitzeil
Simone Manuel Camille Spink Erika Brown Simone Manuel Natalie Hinds Natalie Hinds Simone Manuel
200 free Katie Ledecky (scratch) Katie Ledecky (Scratch) Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky
Erin Gemmell Bella Sims Erin Gemmell Bella Sims Erin Gemmell Bella Sims Bella Sims
Bella Sims Claire Weinstein Bella Sims Erin Gemmell Bella Sims Claire Weinstein Claire Weinstein
Claire Weinstein Leah Smith Claire Weinstein Claire Weinstein Claire Weinstein Erin Gemmell Erin Gemmell
Paige Madden Erin Gemmell Paige Madden Leah Smith Katie Grimes Kayla Wilson Alex Walsh
Leah Smith Alex Walsh Leah Smith Alex Walsh Alex Walsh Alex Walsh Leah Smith
400 free Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky
Erin Gemmell Bella Sims Katie Grimes Bella Sims Erin Gemmell Katie Grimes Katie Grimes
Paige Madden Katie Grimes Leah Smith Erin Gemmell Bella Sims Bella Sims Leah Smith
800 free Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky
Katie Grimes Bella Sims Leah Smith Katie Grimes Katie Grimes Katie Grimes Katie Grimes
Leah Smith Leah Smith Katie Grimes Leah Smith Leah Smith Bella Sims Leah Smith
1500 free Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky Katie Ledecky
Katie Grimes Katie Grimes Katie Grimes Katie Grimes Katie Grimes Katie Grimes Katie Grimes
Erica Sullivan Erica Sullivan Erica Sullivan Jillian Cox Erica Sullivan Mariah Denigan Erica Sullivan
100 back Katharine Berkoff Claire Curzan Regan Smith Regan Smith Regan Smith Katharine Berkoff Regan Smith
Claire Curzan Rhyan White Rhyan White Claire Curzan Claire Curzan Claire Curzan Claire Curzan
Regan Smith Katharine Berkoff Katharine Berkoff Katharine Berkoff Gretchen Walsh Gretchen Walsh
Katharine Berkoff
200 back Phoebe Bacon Phoebe Bacon Phoebe Bacon Phoebe Bacon Phoebe Bacon Phoebe Bacon Regan Smith
Claire Curzan Rhyan White Regan Smith Rhyan White Regan Smith Bella Sims Phoebe Bacon
Regan Smith Regan Smith Rhyan White Regan Smith Rhyan White Regan Smith Rhyan White
100 breast Lilly King Lilly King Lydia Jacoby Lilly King Lilly King Lydia Jacoby Lilly King
Lydia Jacoby Kaitlyn Dobler Lilly King Kaitlyn Dobler Lydia Jacoby Lilly King Lydia Jacoby
Kaitlyn Dobler Lydia Jacoby Lucy Thomas Lydia Jacoby Kaitlyn Dobler Kaitlyn Dobler Kaitlyn Dobler
200 breast Kate Douglass Kate Douglass Kate Douglass Kate Douglass Kate Douglass Kate Douglass Kate Douglass
Lilly King Lilly King Lilly King Lilly King Lilly King Annie Lazor Lilly King
Lydia Jacoby Annie Lazor Ella Nelson Annie Lazor Annie Lazor Lilly King Annie Lazor
100 fly Torri Huske Torri Huske Torri Huske Torri Huske Torri Huske Claire Curzan Torri Huske
Gretchen Walsh Claire Curzan Claire Curzan Claire Curzan Gretchen Walsh Torri Huske Claire Curzan
Kelly Pash Gretchen Walsh Gabi Albiero Gretchen Walsh Claire Curzan Gabi Albiero Gretchen Walsh
200 fly Dakota Luther Hali Flickinger Regan Smith Regan Smith Regan Smith Hali Flickinger Hali Flickinger
Hali Flickinger Regan Smith Dakota Luther Kelly Pash Alex Shackell Kelly Pash Regan Smith
Regan Smith Kelly Pash Lindsay Looney Hali Flickinger Kelly Pash Regan Smith Tess Howley
200 IM Kate Douglass Alex Walsh Kate Douglass Alex Walsh Alex Walsh Alex Walsh Alex Walsh
Alex Walsh Leah Hayes Alex Walsh Leah Hayes Leah Hayes Leah Hayes Kate Douglass
Leah Hayes Kate Douglass Leah Hayes Kate Douglass Kate Douglass Beata Nelson Leah Hayes
400 IM Katie Grimes Katie Grimes Katie Grimes Katie Grimes Katie Grimes Katie Grimes Katie Grimes
Leah Hayes Leah Hayes Alex Walsh Hali Flickinger Leah Hayes Emma Weyant Hali Flickinger
Emma Weyant Alex Walsh Hali Flickinger Emma Weyant Emma Weyant Leah Hayes Emma Weyant

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Wabbers
1 year ago

I want to say Grimes in the 200fly, and that I’m somewhat disappointed that she’s not in anybody’s top 3 for the event. It seems to me a very shrewd thing that her coach is doing right now, keeping her grounded for as long as possible, just getting her comfortably through to 2024. The 200fly could be here best event some day, 17 months is lots of time, and I’m betting that they’re not targeting the 800free for medal opportunities in Paris.

John
1 year ago

Dumb question, I’m sure there’s been an article published but I can’t find it.

Will there be 3 individual swimmers per event in 2024 instead of the usual 2? Excluding 100/200 frees of course

Troyy
Reply to  John
1 year ago

Still only two spots.

MBswim
1 year ago

Hot take, AJ Pouch wins the 200 Breast you heard it here first

Bob Swims
1 year ago

Why is everyone overlooking Clark in LC?

Owlmando
1 year ago

No one picked MA for #2 100 fly?? Sleeeeeeeeper pick for sure

SSNP
1 year ago

Robert’s the only one who’s realistic about Gretchen Walsh.

Troyy
Reply to  SSNP
1 year ago

Probably too far in the opposite direction.

Andy Hardt
1 year ago

One of the tough things with these picks is that we know that Trials champions rarely repeat (although 3 years is less than 4), but that doesn’t tell us who will beat them. So even if you’d bet the field, the reigning champ might still be the *most likely* winner.

Props for putting yourselves on the line here!

phelps swims 200 breast rio
1 year ago

I don’t think Dressel is coming back. MA will make the team in one event- the 50 free. Ledecky makes the team in the 200, but she’s second. Two swimmers under the WR in the men’s 400 IM at trials.

dscott
Reply to  phelps swims 200 breast rio
1 year ago

Which two?

phelps swims 200 breast rio
Reply to  dscott
1 year ago

Chase and Carson

dscott
Reply to  phelps swims 200 breast rio
1 year ago

Thanks.

About Yanyan Li

Yanyan Li

Although Yanyan wasn't the greatest competitive swimmer, she learned more about the sport of swimming by being her high school swim team's manager for four years. She eventually ventured into the realm of writing and joined SwimSwam in January 2022, where she hopes to contribute to and learn more about …

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