2024 Olympics Previews: Can Cam McEvoy be the Maestro in the 50 as Past Champions Reemerge?

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
• Meet Central
• Full Schedule
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Entry Lists

MEN’S 50 FREE — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 20.91 — Cesar Cielo (BRA), 2009
• World Junior Record: 21.75 — Michael Andrew (USA), 2017 / 2017
• Olympic Record: 21.07 – Caeleb Dressel (USA)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: Caeleb Dressel (USA) – 21.07

It may not seem like it on the face of it, but the 50 free is one of the most technical events on the program. While the 400 IM requires swimmers to perform at a high level across all four strokes, and the distance events require constant sustained speed, one can still have one (relatively) weak stroke or have a few off splits. The 50, however, is not forgiving, allowing for no such slip-ups or hiding of a weakness.

All of the swimmers mentioned below need to be perfect from the start to the underwater to the breakout to the finish. With 75 swimmers entered in the event, 40 of them under or equal to OQT and less than .2 separating the 7th entry from the 18th, the 50 free prelims, let alone semi-finals, will be must-see viewing, much like it was in 2021.

Three years ago in Tokyo, American Caeleb Dressel was the creme de la creme, emerging first from the prelims (21.32), first from the semifinals (21.42), and then put it all together in the finals to finish in an Olympic record time of 21.07, his third fastest performance ever and his third individual gold of the meet.

The 2022 Worlds was expected to be a continuation of Dressel’s dominance in the event, but a shocking withdrawal from Budapest saw a scramble to the top of the podium. Emerging victorious from the pack was the T-5th place finisher in Tokyo, Ben Proud. The Brit, who was 21.72 at the Olympics, steadily improved from round to round in Budapest; he was 21.76 in prelims, 21.42 in the semis, and 21.32 in the finals.

The 2023 Worlds saw the re-emergence of Australian sprinter Cam McEvoy. After not attending the World Championships or Commonwealth Games in 2022, McEvoy, who shifted his entire training regime to the 50 free, emerged victorious, having swum 21.35, 21.25, then popped off a blistering 21.06 in the final to not only win by half a second but also set a new PB and Oceanian Record breaking Ashley Callus‘s super suited record of 21.19.

The much-maligned 2024 Worlds saw a relatively strong field in the 50-meter freestyle, as the past two defending champions were in the field. Yet Ukraine’s Vladyslav Bukhov emerged victorious, claiming victory in 21.44, beating out both McEvoy and Proud for the gold.

Four meets. Four winners. The 50 free appears to be wide open, and despite the field being so close together and thus so volatile, the top echelon of swimmers seem to be pretty secure in their chances of making the final, and of that group, a key four emerge as our leading contenders.

Dressaudou

(Photo by Patrick B. Kraemer / MAGICPBK)

If you are looking through the past Olympic results, one name pops up highly placed over the last three editions: Florent Manaudou. The Frenchman, who clocks in at 6’6, was the 7th seed entering the 2012 London Games, but he walked away as the Olympic Champion with a time of 21.34, beating out Cullen Jones (21.54), World Record Holder Cesar Cielo (21.59) and 2000 Gold medalist Anthony Ervin (21.78). With the win, Manaudou and his sister, Laure Manaudou, became the first pair of siblings in swimming to both win Olympic Golds.

After 2012, Manaudou emerged as one of the premier sprinting talents in the world. He helped France to win the 400 Free Relay at back-to-back World Championships in 2013 and 2015. In addition, he claimed individual golds in the 50s fly and free in 2015, the latter of which was in 21.19, which was, at the time, a textile suit best. At the next Olympics in 2016, Manaudou was denied back-to-back golds in the 50, by the slimmest of margins, being just out-touched by .01 by Ervin, 21.41 to 21.40.

After a public break from swimming, taking on handball, and with his role as the dominant sprinter filled by Dressel, the Frenchman returned to the Olympics to set up a gigantic clash of the titans as the pair were the top two coming out of both prelims and semis and while Dressel exploded with his 21.07,  Manaudou had to be content with second place in 21.55, holding off Brazil’s Bruno Fratus by .02. His silver medal represented France’s sole medal in swimming.

While he failed to final at both the 2022 and 2023 Worlds, Manaudou seems to have a new resolve to win a fourth straight Olympic medal in the event. In January, he spent time in Australia training with McEvoy and has looked the best he ever has physically. Last month, at 33, he swam a personal best in the 100 free.

At the French Trials, Manaudou blitzed the field, winning in 21.54 and swimming 21.52 in prelims. The prelims time appears to be his fastest time since the Rio Olympics eight years ago and ranks him 6th in the world this season.

Caeleb Dressel (photo: Jack Spitser)

When Manaudou took his break after the 2016 Olympics, he cited Michael Phelps and Ervin’s ability to come back at a high level, and while we may never know exactly why Dressel took his, he too appears to be back and ready.

After claiming victory at the 2017 and 2019 Worlds, Dressel swam to the gold in 2021 and now stands on the cusp of being the first to repeat as champion since the great Alexander Popov did in 1992 and 1996.

It has been a slow and steady journey for Dressel since his return to swimming last May, but perhaps it has been what is necessary for him to find his way and love the sport again. Since a 22.57 14 months ago, Dressel swam 21.99 in November, then had back-to-back 21.8 at the last two Pros Swim Series meets. After entering the US Trials as the 5th seed, Dressel exploded to the win, stopping the clock in 21.41, his first time under 21.5 since April 2022, a time that ranks as his 10th fastest performance in the event.

Entering these Olympics as the 4th seed, Dressel will need to be on point for all of his swims, as will Manaudou for that matter, but the American should take some comfort from his 22.00 and 21.61 performances from the earlier rounds of US Trials. That said, it appears that per the entry lists, Dressel is expected to line up next to the #1 swimmer this season in the prelims, so one should expect fireworks from the get-go as Dressel has one of the best starts in the world, or so says Cam McEvoy.

Past Chances

With the 50 free increasingly becoming its own sub-sect of sprinting, in so much as its differentiation from the 100 recently and the different training regimes associated with the event, it has become a haven for swimmers of an older age to continue to participate in something they love. Ervin’s golds 16 years apart, Matt Grevers making his 7th Olympic Trials are just two examples and Cam McEvoy is a third.

The Australian will be contesting his 4th Olympic games, like Manaudou, but unlike the French star, he has yet to win an individual medal. In Rio, McEvoy was a favorite to win in the 100 free after he swam the fastest 100 in a textile suit, but he faltered in the final, finishing 7th behind his compatriot, the then 18-year-old Kyle Chalmers. In the 50, he was the 3rd seed but struggled in the semifinals, swimming 21.89 and failed to advance to the finals. Five years later, in Tokyo, McEvoy failed to make the semifinals, finishing just 29th in 22.31.

However, after the pandemic and a break from swimming in 2022, the Aussie returned to even greater heights with a new training regime that was inspired by his love of rock climbing and incorporates concepts from speed cycling. After putting the world on notice in June of 2023 with his 21.27 from Australian Trials (his first PB in the event in over 7 years), the then 29-year-old would go on to win his first individual gold at a World Championships, storming to the victory in an even speedier 21.06, a result that made him the 4th fastest performer of all time.

(Photo by Patrick B. Kraemer / MAGICPBK)

The success seemed to continue to the 2024 Worlds, where he was 21.13 in prelims (the fastest time in the world this season), but as mentioned above, he slowed each successive round. He was out-touched in the end by just .01 and had to settle for the silver in Doha. More recently, at the Australian Trials, McEvoy was 21.43 in prelims and 21.35 in finals, righting the worrying trend that he was adding time as the event progressed. While slower than his 2023 Worlds time, the result would still rank as a top-two time in the world.

Sitting behind McEvoy in the rankings is Proud. The Brit, who won the 50 free in 2022 and backed it up with bronzes in 2023 and 2024, has been one of the more consistent performers on the world stage. In the lead-up to the Olympics this season, Proud, who in 2022 won the World, Commonwealth and European titles in one summer, rattled the SCM world record. At the 2023 European Championships, Proud smashed Manaudou’s European record of 20.26 as the Brit stopped the clock in 20.18, just .02 off Dressel’s time of 20.16.

Like McEvoy, Proud, who has a PB of 21.11 from the 2018 European Championships, has been turning back the years as he swam 21.25 at April’s Aquatics GB Championships. The time, which handily won the event by over half a second, was Proud’s fastest time since 2018 and his third-fastest performance ever and easily vaulted him into the Olympic medal conversation. However, that position has not always been favorable to the 29-year-old. Despite the successes at the Worlds and Euros, Proud hasn’t had the luck at the Olympics. In 2016, he placed 4th, missing the medals by .19, and in Tokyo, he tied for 5th, just .15 away from bronze.

While both Proud and McEvoy have had chances to medal and are amongst the top four likeliest to do so again, these Olympics feel like their last chance to do so. While Ervin was older than both of them when he won in Rio, the crowded field of young swimmers behind may box them out in four years’ time.

Young Things

Sitting third in the world rankings this season is the aforementioned Bukhov. The Ukrainian before 2024 had some rather unlucky occurrences. At Worlds in 2022, he finished 10th in the semifinals, just .04 away from the tie for 8th. In 2023, he tied for 9th, but with a withdrawal, he was drawn into a swim-off for the final but would go on to lose it by just .02.

Perhaps learning from such near misses, the 22-year-old was second out of both the prelims and semis at the 2024 Worlds, the latter of which in a national record time of 21.38. In the finals, despite adding .06, the Ukrainian out-touched McEvoy and claimed his first International senior medal, five-ish years after winning Junior Worlds. Perhaps a little worrying, but not a massive cause for concern, Bukov was just third at the recent European champs, finishing in a time of 21.85.

Behind the Ukrainian two spots in the world rankings and the swimmer who pulled out of the 2023 final to give Bukhov the swim-off is Canadian star Josh Liendo. Liendo burst onto the scene in 2021 at the short course worlds and backed it up in 2022 at the Worlds by winning bronze in both the 100 free and 100 fly. Last summer, Liendo improved his podium position in the 100 fly, claiming silver and continued that momentum into the NCAA season.

This past March, Liendo helped lead the Florida Gators to a third-place finish, winning the 50/100 free and 100 fly individually. Less than two months later, Liendo, who trains with Dressel, would win those three same events at the Canadian Olympic Trials, with both the 50 free and 100 fly in new personal bests and national records. Before the meet, Liendo’s PB in the 50 was 21.61 from the 2022 Worlds (where he finished 5th), but in Toronto, he joined the sub 21.5 club as he stopped the clock at 21.48.

Chris Guiliano (photo: Jack Spitser)

Two swimmers who competed with (and lost to) Liendo at the 2024 NCAAs but will look to vie for a spot with him in the Olympic final are the US’s Chris Guiliano and Sweden’s Bjorn Seeliger. The pair rank as the 7th and T-9th entrants in the event, and each will be looking to make their first Olympic final.

Guiliano, who swims for Notre Dame, was 4th in the final at NCAAs and was able to make the transition into meters and qualify for his first Olympic team after exploding onto the world stage 12 months ago. At the US Olympic Trials, after posting the top time in the semis of 21.59, the Pennsylvania native held onto 2nd in the final, stopping the clock in 21.69 to qualify for Paris by just .01 ahead of Matt King. With the result, Guiliano became the first US man since 1988 to qualify for the Olympics in the 50/100/200 free.

Guiliano entered trials as just the 10th seed in the 50, with a time of 21.96. While the drop-down to 21.59 puts him into consideration for making the final, with a busy schedule, it will be tough for the American (but not impossible) to enter the medal conversation.

Similar to Guiliano, Seeliger, who represented Cal at the NCAAs and placed 5th in the event, is unlikely to medal but certainly has a chance to make the final. Seeliger has more Olympic experience than Guiliano in this section, having finished 23rd (22.19) in the event in 2021. At the 2023 Worlds, he was a little slower, finishing in 31st (22.30), but he took the opportunities provided by the 2024 Worlds to not only make the final (7th-21.83) but also clock a new personal best in the semifinals of 21.67 a time that spots him in as the 9th fastest swimmer in the event this season and on the precipice of making the final.

Anatomy of a Sprinter

To avoid too much back-and-forth scrolling, I’ll repeat a little of what was above. The seven fastest entrants, with McEvoy leading the way, range from 21.06 to 21.59. While sprinters at this level can spend years dropping a few hundredths, the battle for those last few spots will be vicious and one can expect any swimmer within range to be going full out in the prelims and semis.

In that hot seat is France’s Maxime Grousset. Grousset appears on the entry sheets as the 8th seed with a 21.67, from his 2nd place finish behind Manaudou at the French Trials. The 25-year-old has five individual World’s medals to his name, including a bronze in this event from 2022, from which he set his personal best of 21.57. While Grousset certainly has, theoretically, a chance to medal, his best chances lay elsewhere as he won back-to-back medals in the 100 free at the 2022 and 2023 Worlds and claimed gold in the 100 fly in Fukuoka.

Behind the Frenchman, there is a cadre of veteran swimmers looking to make another international final. Greece’s Kristian Gkolomeev is the 13 seed and entered with a time of 21.70 from the 2024 Worlds prelims; he ultimately finished 8th in a time of 21.84. The Greek, who swam for the University of Alabama, tied for the silver medal at the 2019 Worlds in 21.45 and will look to make the Olympic finals again after having done so in 2020, where he finished tied for 5th with Proud. More recently, Gkolomeev won the 2024 Europeans in 21.72, and if he can get back down to that 21,45 he may be suited to upset some of those above him,

Two swimmers who made their careers in swimming 50s find themselves on the outside of the projected A-final looking in. Trinidad and Tobago’s Dylan Carter and Hungary’s Szebasztian Szabo enter Paris as the t-9th (21.67) and 12th (21.69) seeds, respectively. Carter, 28, is a three-time short course world medalist but has yet to break through in the 50 free in the long course. Szabo is in the same boat, having exclusively won medals in short course at Worlds, but did come very close in the big pool as in 2022 as he finished just .03 behind Grousset in the 50 free.

It would be remiss not to include Gabe Castano in the preview, as he sits equal with Carter and Seeliger in a three-way tie for 9th at 21.67. This season has been a bit of a revelation for the Mexican athlete, as he placed just 30th back in 2021 (22.32) but has now broken the 22-second barrier twice this season, having done so both times at a PSS stop in San Antonio this past April.

The Verdict/ Swimming Fiction

To be fully candid, these picks are, at best, a highly somewhat educated guess. With such a small margin of error, any number of issues, whether it be in the water, like a bad breakout or finishing on the wrong arm, or out of the water, like having a bad night of sleep, could easily make or break any swimmer’s chances.

While we do think that based on his present form and consistency, McEvoy will win his first individual Olympic Medal, it is not a lock, and his increases from prelims to semis to finals at the 2024 Worlds should be a little worrying. At that meet, only Bukhov capitalized on that fault, but in the finals of the Olympics, one should expect such regression to be fatal. Proud, the man with the most performances under 21.45 seems to also be in line to achieve his first Olympic medal and could, with such a past, be in line to jump McEvoy should he falter.

The battle for all the medals will be tough, rough, and brutal, but the fight for that last spot will be tough. While it could fall to any swimmer in the field, we believe it’ll come down to Dressaudou, and like its homage to Barbenheimer, we think the latter will claim the prize.  Manaudou has put all of his eggs into one basket: the 50 free. And what a swan song it would be for the oldest male swimmer at the meet to podium for the fourth time in front of a partisan Parisian public. (Say that ten times fast aloud).

However, that is a monstrous build-up and a recipe for disaster should anything go awry. Dressel certainly has the faster personal and season best of the two, but something about Manaudou is swaying our hand in favor of the Frenchmen. It could be his recent admissions about slimming down or his recent PB in the 100 free, but the man just seems more likely to get those long arms on the wall before Dressel.

I’ve been told (by EIC Braden Keith) that we can’t not choose, and while it would be a baller move, I don’t have the chutzpah to predict a tie for the bronze. If I did and it occurred, I would be a king amongst all SwimSwam contributors and be able to ride off into the sunset.

If you don’t believe me or SwimSwam, I’m sure you’ll let me know about it in the comments, but before you do, I’d advise watching this recent SwimSwam Podcast episode where WORLD RECORD HOLDER Cesar Cielo said about Manaudou,

“As long as he’s in the final, he has a shot to become a two-time Olympic Champion”

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

Dark Horse: Ji Yuchan (KOR) – There could be any number of swimmers placed here but we opted to go with someone who has yet to make an international final but has been on an upward trajectory. Perhaps lost in the shuffle of his more famous compatriots, Ji Yuchan has been slowly putting together a strong season. In September of last year, after placing 14th in the 50 (22.17) in Fukuoka, the Korean swam his way to a new personal best and national record of 21.72, beating both Ian Ho and Pan Zhanle at the 2022 Asian Games. More recently, at the 2024 Worlds, Ji made his first Worlds semifinals, qualifying for the final in 21.93 and placing 12th overall in 21.87. While younger than many of his competitors, Ji could surprise the field and make a run into the final, but first, he must ensure that he survives the prelims.