Scoring Out The Women’s NCAA Division I Pre-Selection Psych Sheet

This morning, the NCAA released its pre-cut psych sheet for women’s NCAAs. We’ve already projected out the likely cut lines, and you can view them here.

While no cut lines have been made official, we can still score out the psych sheet pretty reliably – the cut line usually falls somewhere in the 30s, meaning the top 16 seeds should be unaffected. Our resident numbers expert Andrew Mering has already tallied up the points, showing what could be a closer NCAA meet than previously projected.

These numbers don’t include diving, which includes three events at the NCAA Championship. As always, some athletes took a full rest for the conference round, while others may have saved rest and could have more time to drop. And relays seem somewhat likely to shuffle around as teams try new athlete combinations at NCAAs compared to what they used at the conference level.

View the psych sheets themselves here

Projected Rank Team Psych Sheet Swim Points 2018 Dive Points From Underclassmen
1 Stanford 374 0
2 California 371 0
3 Michigan 295 7
4 Tennessee 261 12
5 NC State 242 0
6 Auburn 191 0
7 Indiana 180 35
8 Southern Cali 179 0
9 Texas 161 51
10 Louisville 160 0
11 Texas A&M 152 0
12 Virginia 148 0
13 Kentucky 98 0
14 Georgia 92 0
15 Wisconsin 90 0
16 Florida 82 8
17 Missouri 70 0
18 Minnesota 68 47
19 Arizona St 55 14
20 South Carolina 39 0
21 Ohio St 38 16
22 Arizona 32 13
23 Arkansas 31 30
24 Eastern Mich 26 0
25 UNC 24 0
26 Hawaii 22 0
27 Penn St 17 0
28 Akron 14 0
29 Florida St 9 2
30 Northwestern 8 40
30 Notre Dame 8 0
32 LSU 7 8
33 Yale 6 0
33 Duke 6 0
35 Rutgers 5 0
36 Alabama 4 0
Purdue 0 16
UCLA 0 23
Nebraska 0 11
Wyoming 0 9

The projections show just three points separating two-time defending champs Stanford from Pac-12 rivals Cal. Stanford, though, should get a boost from some athletes who swam off events at Pac-12s and are now under-seeded. Ella Eastin is a good example: she swam 500 free, 400 IM and 200 back at Pac-12s, but will only include one of those events in her NCAA entries. (She’s entered in the 200 IM, 400 IM and 200 fly). If Eastin wins all three like she did last year, she’ll move up 13 points from seed.

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He Gets It Done Again

Interesting that Indiana beat Michigan at Big Ten’s but Michigan may end up scoring a lot more at NCAAs

I think this was sort of the storyline we had in our heads all along. We knew Indiana would at least be close, and had a chance at winning…but the math made it pretty clear that Michigan still had a way better team for NCAAs.

Sort of funny how it works that way. I’ve wondered if going to 24-place scoring at NCAAs, on the women’s side, would provide any value to align those two levels better. Maybe nobody cares about aligning them.

Say's Phoebe

Scoring NCAA’s to 24 won’t align conference strength with NCAA strength, but that isn’t really the point. The strength of your NCAA squad is only relative to your A finalists at conference meets and the occasional B finalist winner (and the very rare fluke – Kaleoaloha). Scoring to 24 does several things, but the two most important are: 1) Putting much more emphasis on the B heat, and 2) Dramatically changing the team race outside the top 3 or 4 teams, especially among the second ten teams. In score to 16 there are 155 points available in individual events. 76.1% go to the A heat and 23.9% go to the B heat. In score to 24 there are 302 points… Read more »

Superfan

NCAA track only scores top 8 (maybe top 6?). I think swimming doesn’t need to expand scoring…it shouldn’t be everyone gets a trophy.

2 Cents

scoring to 24 doesn’t give everyone a trophy. So take that philosophy and shove it. Maybe argue they shouldn’t hand out trophies to the top8 on the podium or something. Scoring top 24 emphasizes TEAM and allows the best TEAM to win the meet. Track is a horrible example and is the most flawed of any sport…and if swimming ended up like that, you would have a lot less people able to go to school to swim. More and more you would see schools giving out full rides to 10 swimmers instead of partial rides to 25, and seeing teams that only depend on 4-5 swimmers to carry the team. If the rosters for NCAA say you can bring at… Read more »

BaldingEagle

NCAA track also doesn’t double points for relays. NCAA track has far fewer 2 and 3-event scorers. Besides a few 100m runners also doubling up to 200m, and 200m to 400m, there aren’t many who can score in more 2 events. In fact, even getting selected to the meet in one event doesn’t mean they also get to go for another, even with a “B” time, and relay qualifiers don’t get to automatically run an event they have a “B” time in if they are below the cut line. A team with 4 athletes doesn’t get to enter a relay, because those 4 athletes may be a steeplechase runner, a discuss thrower, a hurdler, and a sprinter. T&F is MUCH… Read more »

2 Cents

I hate that idea, but also, you can win the NCAA track meet with 3 studs. ie, a team with just really good throwers can finish 4th or 5th on just those points. Imagine when Northwestern had Bubolz, Grevers and Alexandrov. If the scoring was how it was in track, they would have run away with the meet. Were they the best team that year?? I would say no, but they sure as hell had 3 of the best swimmers. I would love to see like a dual meet tournament and then the big meet, kind of like how tennis does. It would be very hard to manage tapers and what not, but it would be fun to watch and… Read more »

Say’s Phoebe

Apologies for the math error, but the point is the same:

In a score 24 meet there are 362 points available in each individual event. The A heat scores 207 points (57.2 percent); the B heat scores 118 points (32.6 percent); the C heat scores 37 points (10.2 percent).

Superfan

Agree. In fact I made the same comment during Big Tens. Michigan has more top end talent

VFL

Same with Tennessee. Got fourth at SECs and projected fourth at NCAAs lol.

ACC fan

I know for a fact that three of NC STATE’S top women, who already had invitable times, we’re not fully rested or shaved at ACCs. I’m sure many of the top teams are in the same situation. Especially Texas. Should be very interesting fight for top ten.

Troy

Texas will for sure be top 5 in my opinion. I am no Texas fan, but Carol is not going to make the same mistake she made a few years ago. Her girls will show up at NCAA’s.

Swammer

Laughed when I saw Texas women are projected to get 9th.

This is of course swimming points only, and Texas has a lot of diving points. That would put them in a deadlock with Indiana for 6th, based on returning diving points (I haven’t stopped to look at how freshmen divers will impact). So, past that, it’s all about jumping seeds…

Random123

i know they didn’t all have to rest at Big 12s but i’m pretty sure they didn’t add any swimmers at the meet. not sure if any of their top talent (those already in NCAAs or with potential to make it) went season bests at all…

2 Cents

I doubt that. They were in a fight to win the meet and would not sacrifice some “semi resting” just to do slightly better at NCs and not win ACCs. Their men seemed to with a few, but they were much heavier favorites to win the meet, and they still rested some.

PS, the term fully rested, really means they were rested just maybe not shaved… thus 80-90% of the way to being “FULLY RESTED and SHAVED”

dmswim

How many times have we seen swimmers who were “not rested” for their conference meet not improve at NCAAs? More than one can count. I’m so over hearing athletes and supporters brag about not being rested for certain meets. No one cares. Perform well at the big meet. That’s what matters. If you rested and are on a second taper and perform well, great. If you didn’t rest and are on your first taper and perform well, also great. Even if NC State women weren’t rested, their conference meet was considerably more taxing that Texas’s was. They had to swim their hearts out to bring home the title on top of cheering and supporting their teammates in every race. I’m… Read more »

2 Cents

I agree with everything you said except that cheering during a meet is taxing… really?!?! So don’t cheer, or at least don’t cheer that loudly if you want to save yourself for the next meet a MONTH later. C’mon. These are the best athletes in the world really, and you don’t think they can recover from cheering on Saturday, rest Sunday, and get back to work Monday or Tuesday and not show any ill effects from cheering…from CHEERING!?! Maybe some 50 year old alum who cheered at ACC needs 2-3 days to recover before going back to work without some wheezing or an oxygen tank…. but these finely tuned athletes?!?! C’mon. New excuse for failing teams: yeah this team cheered… Read more »

dmswim

It’s not just the cheering, but it’s the emotional strain of being “up” and “on” all of the time when your team is in a tight battle. At least on my college team, you were not allow to sit while teammates were swimming. You supported them. That’s significant extra time on your feet yelling and jumping up and down. I remember hearing an account from an elite level swimmer (I think it was Madison Kennedy) who said one of her mistakes at trials was attending finals every night. Watching her friends and teammates make the team was emotionally draining, in a good way, but draining nonetheless. While it was the same meet, trials is long and her 50 free was… Read more »

Longhorn

Super Annoying though… now you’re comparing someone’s choices at Olympic trials DURING the meet… of course that matters…. of course she should’ve been resting when her event was That same week! But we’re talking about a month later dude! Get over it. Yes the ACC is different than big 12’s… we get it… but we can go back and forth all day long with which team had what advantage.., how bout trying to make an NCAA cut whilst swimming against your teammates in front of a small crowd vs the high energy hype at the SEC and ACC meets… you get the picture. There’s pros and cons and each team does what they have to do.

dmswim

I wasn’t saying that the Big 12 environment was ideal. I’m sure it was very hard to get an NCAA cut in that environment. From the up and down votes, you seem to be on of the few that agree with 2 Cents, so I’ll stand by my comments.

2 Cents

I wasn’t referring to your comment or opinion as really really dumb, just if someone said they cheered in January for a meet so they were too tired for their conference meet in Feb would sound really really dumb. I get what you are saying, and you are referring to the mental side of things… I get that… kind of. It can be a let down and almost every single team there will not have the same full team at the meet like they did at conference, I get that too. You do feed off the energy and get up and go just a bit faster if the teammate in the heat or event before did well. That gets the… Read more »

Longhorn

Ya…. I agree that was weird.

Rachel

Texas has no reason to rest for big 12s, unless they hadn’t qualified yet. My guess is a lot of girls swam through it.

Dave

Eastin in the 200 fly or back, Drabot or Ruck are also very strong. Interesting choice. I would expect more team points possible with Eastin in the 200 back because Hanson in the 200 fly. Good thing that Greg was a math major.

Rachel Wander

My guess is that Eastin has a better chance of beating Hansson in the 200 fly, where she is the reigning caa record holder, than she has of beating Nelson in the 200 back. I would also say that Ruck has a better shot at beating Nelson in the 2 back than Drabot has of beating Hansson in the 2 fly.

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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