2024 Worlds Previews: With 3x Champ Qin Out, Men’s Breast Field is Wide Open for Gold

2024 WORLD AQUATIC CHAMPIONSHIPS

• February 11th – February 18th (pool swimming)
• Doha, Qatar
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Official Entries

In the strangest World Championships in several generations, we’re going to do our best to pick the medalists and finalists for the 2024 World Championships. It’s going to be weird. There are going to be swimmers in finals that most of us have never heard of. We’re going to miss someone obvious who we didn’t expect to race. The list at the top is as valuable as the list at the bottom. Let us know in the comments, and we reserve the right to update picks if y’all inform us of an entry we missed! 

The 2024 men’s breaststroke field is set to have a select blood-hungry veteran crew aiming for their own taste of individual World gold. One of the biggest names absent from the 2024 Worlds entry list, massively opening up all three men’s breaststroke event fields in Doha, is last year’s 3-for-3 men’s breaststroke champion Qin Haiyang of China. To add to Haiyang’s absence, last year’s entire 200 breast podium, including former event WR-holder Zac Stubblety-Cook, and top 2023 American Matt Fallon, will not return to defend their positions. While Haiyang and countryman Sun Jiajun finished 1-3 for China in the Fukuoka 50 event, both swimmers and the country itself, will not be swimming the 2024 World event.

After a three-way tie for silver in the 2023 World 100 breast final, the trio of 30-year-old American Nic Fink, 28-year-old Dutchman Arno Kamminga, and 24-year-old Italian Nicolo Martinenghi are set to square up for multiple 2024 World breastbattles. Fink won 2022 World 50 breast gold, followed by double 50/100 breast silver last year. In Doha, Fink is hitting all three breast events for the first time. Martinenghi has also been on top of the World podium, taking the Budapest 100 breast title, followed by Fukuoka silver. The Italian sprinter will contest in the 50 and 100 breast in Doha. Unlike Fink and Martinenghi, Kamminga has never won LC Worlds gold. After double Olympic breast silver, Kamminga followed up with back-to-back World 100 breast silver over the last two years.

Honing in all three breast events will be 22-year-old Netherlands countryman Caspar Corbeau. At the last two championships, Corbeau has bested semifinal appearances in the 50/100 breast as well as being a two-time 200 breast finalist. Along with the likes of Corbeau, be on the lookout for other top men’s breast names to crash the party, including the anticipated comeback of 29-year-old sprint breast world record holder Adam Peaty, sprint finals threat 26-year-old Aussie Sam Williamson, and 200 breast world junior record holder Dong Zhihao of China.

With these select returnees and absentees in mind, the 2024 World men’s breaststroke events will only be a synoptic glimpse for what’s to come at the Paris Olympics this summer.

Men’s 50 Breast

By the Numbers

• World record: Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 25.95 (2017)
• World junior record: Nicolo Martinenghi, Italy – 26.97 (2017)
• Championship record: Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 25.95 (2017) 
• 2023 world champion: Qin Haiyang, China – 26.29

The field:

American Nic Fink is the man to beat in this event, already having the 2022 title and 2023 runner-up title to his name. Fink comes in with the 4th-fastest season effort among the entrants at 26.89, three-tenths off his 2023 finals time. He owns a lifetime best of 26.45 from his 2022 title win. Nicolo Martinenghi is arguably the biggest threat to Fink in this event. The Italian does boast a quicker personal best of 26.33. However, did lose the 2022 crown to Fink by 0.03s at 26.48.

Among the other contestants, Australian Sam Williamson is another looming 26.51-capable threat to Nic(olo)’s fight for the crown. In 2023, Williamson placed fourth in 26.82, 0.23s off Fink but only 0.02s ahead of Martinenghi. Furthermore, for the first time since 2019, Adam Peaty will be present at LC Worlds. The Brit has the second-fastest season best among the entry list at 26.79, just 0.08s behind Martinenghi’s World No.3 time of 26.71. He still has the 25.95 all-time effort to his name, who knows what finals adrenaline can bring Peaty.

Along with the likes of Peaty, do not count out the 50-sprint king himself, Michael Andrew. Andrew last raced this event in 2022, aiding Fink in a US 1-3 finish with a 26.72 bronze time. If that was swam in 2023, Andrew would have knocked China’s Jiajun off the podium. Andrew is the current US Open record holder at 26.52, which also would have knocked Fink out of 2023 silver.

That time seeds Peaty fifth with German Melvin Imoudu. Back in July 2023, Imoudu broke 27 seconds for the first time en route a national record at 26.79. This season, Imoudu has bested 27.29 at the Athens stop of the 2023 World Cup, which would have placed 12th in Fukuoka’s semifinals. Dutchman Caspar Corbeau ownsa personal best of 27.01, also putting him in the finals bubble, fueling his fight to better 10th place in 2023.

Fukuoka 9th-place finisher Simone Cerasuolo of Italy looks to be in a better position to guarantee a finals spots, owning a season best of 26.83, right off his personal best of 26.76. In 2023, Cerasuolo clocked in 27.0s to just miss out on the final. Meanwhile, German Lucas Matzerath has been rather quiet in comparison to Cerasuolo this season with a SB of 27.26. His personal best of 26.89 qualified him to the 2023 final, there placing 6th at 26.94. Fukuoka finalist Peter Stevens appears to be saving up for this meet, only hitting 28.03 back in November 2023. His 27.04 effort to qualify for the 2023 final also marked a new personal best, only receding 0.04s to place 8th in the final at 27.08.

Aruba’s Mikel Schreuders is also top-10 on the season rankings at 26.98, aiming to place better than 18th last year. Belarusian Ilya Shymanovich, among those approved for individual neutral status, has a season best of 27.01, but hasn’t swam this event since placing 5th in 2019. However, owns a personal best of 26.38.

SwimSwam’s Picks – 50 Breast

Men’s 100 Breast

By the Numbers

• World record: Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 56.88 (2019)
• World junior record: Nicolo Martinenghi, Italy – 59.01 (2017)
• Championship record: Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 56.88 (2019)
• 2023 world champion: Qin Haiyang, China – 57.69

The field:

Set to be one of the most competitive events in Doha, the second through fifth place Fukuoka finishers will return for a Haiyang-less World 100 breast duke. Taking at look at the Arno Kamminga/Nicolo Martinenghi/Nic Fink trio’s lifetime bests, it is Kamminga with the fastest all-time effort at 57.80. However, Kamminga’s fastest time since 2022 is 58.52, slower than both Martinenghi’s (58.26) and Fink’s (58.36) personal bests.

Peering to the 2023-24 season rankings, Kamminga is the only swimmer of the trio to break 59 seconds at 58.68 at the 2023 World Cup – Budapest. Fink is the next fastest at 59.21, 0.04s in front of current world record holder Adam Peaty (59.25). Just as in the 50 breast, Peaty’s appearance in Doha will be his first since 2019, where he set both the world and championship records at 56.88.

2023-24 LCM Men’s 100 BR Season Bests – Doha Attendees

1. Arno Kamminga (Netherlands), 58.68
2. Nic Fink (USA), 59.21
3. Adam Peaty (Great Britain), 59.25
4. Sam Williamson (Australia), 59.26
5. Caspar Corbeau (Netherlands), 59.27

Rounding out the top five, all separated by one one-hundredth of a second, are Aussie Sam Williamson (59.26) and Dutchman Caspar Corbeau (59.27). Both times are personal bests for the pair. While this is Williamson’s first Worlds 100 breast appearance, Corbeau will be looking to place higher than 13th from 2022.

Finishing off the podium behind the three-way tie was German Lucas Matzerath, whose final (58.88) and semifinal (58.75) times were just shy of the trio’s final efforts of 58.72. Matzerath does currently rank 4th on the psych sheet, and could have fire in him to topple the likes of even Peaty. Matzerath’s season best of 59.52 is sandwiched between Italian representatives Ludovico Viberti (PB/SB 59.38) and Martinenghi (SB 59.68) on the 2023-24 rankings list.

Dongyeol Choi of Korea (59.28) and Denis Petrashov of Kyrgyzstan (59.46), both personal bests, have the fastest two season bests of last year’s returning semifinalists. Last year’s 8th place finisher, Berkay Ogretir of Turkey (59.88), ranks just below 200 specialist Dong Zhihao of China (59.73). Both are seeded 6th and 17th respectively on the psych sheets, yet Ogretir owns a lifetime best of 59.17, just ahead of Zhihao’s 59.28 best.

Fifth seed Melvin Imoudu of Germany is entered at 59.17, yet has only bested 1:00.17, not even two-tenths behind 15th seed Jake Foster of the USA (59.99). Foster owns a lifetime best of 59.64, a semifinals-worthy time, while Imoudu has a wide finals placing potential to on the bubble of making it past prelims. Brit James Wilby placed 10th in 2023 at 59.54, but like Imoudu, hasn’t cracked a minute yet this season (SB 1:00.68). Wilby does own a 2019 lifetime best of 58.46, but like Peaty, is questionable how close he could near that mark.

SwimSwam’s Picks – 100 Breast

Men’s 200 Breast

By the Numbers

• World record: Qin Haiyang, China – 2:05.48 (2023)
• World junior record: Dong Zhihao, China – 2:08.04 (2023)
• Championship record: Qin Haiyang, China – 2:05.48 (2023)
• 2023 world champion: Qin Haiyang, China – 2:05.48

The field:

The absences are hard to not notice, with the entire 2023 podium not returning in Doha coming up, leaving just two 2023 finalists coming back. Though world record holder Haiyang will not be defending his title, Chinese Dong Zhihao will be on the prowl to avenge his 4th-place finish last year. Zhihao, who will be 18 until March 31st, secured his current world junior record of 2:08.04 en route a narrow three-tenths podium miss.

Zhihao’s season best of 2:08.60 is just behind the Netherlands duo of Arno Kamminga (2:08.30) and Caspar Corbeau (lifetime best, 2:07.99). Kamminga does own a lifetime best of 2:06.85 from December 2020, however, has not cleared 2:08 since summer 2021. In 2023, Kamminga didn’t move on past semifinals, clocking in 2:10.57 to placed 12th overall. A reminder though that Kamminga is the reigning Olympic runner-up, where he punched the wall at 2:07.01. Corbeau was at the Fukuoka final, where he placed 5th just 0.38s behind Zhihao.

2023-24 LCM Men’s 200 BR Season Bests – Doha Attendees

1. Caspar Corbeau (Netherlands), 2:07.99
2. Arno Kamminga (Netherlands), 2:08.30
3. Dong Zhihao (China), 2:08.60
4. Nic Fink (USA), 2:10.55
5. Denis Petrashov (Kyrgyzstan), 2:10.61
6. Jake Foster (USA), 2:10.71

Ranking fourth among Doha attendees’ current season bests is USA’s Nic Fink at 2:10.55, much off his 2:07.55 lifetime best from 2021 US Olympic Trials. At 2022 World Trials, Fink qualified for the event at 2:08.84, yet missed out in 2023 at 2:09.20. With a reduced field, Fink’s chances of making all three breaststroke finals may be heightened.

Coming in as the returning 9th-place finisher is Sweden’s Erik Persson. The Swede owns the sixth seed at 2:09.35. In 2023, he was just off qualifying at 2:09.89. He does own a personal best of 2:07.66, but much like other veterans, has not neared that mark in over two years. Checking in on Persson’s season best, he scathed 2:12.05 in Geneva, Switzerland just a few weeks ago during the new year.

Seeded 11th on the psych sheets is Kyrgyzstan’s Denis Petrashov at 2:10.61, which is also his season best. Right behind him on the season ranks is USA’s Jake Foster at 2:10.71, yet is the third seed with his lifetime best 2:08.23 entry. Petrashov was disqualified out of Fukuoka prelims, but advanced to semifinals and finished 12th at 2:11.00. Meanwhile, this is Foster’s first LC Worlds experience, where his sub-2:10 capability out shadows Petrashov’s Worlds experience.

Finland’s Matti Mattson is seeded 9th at 2:09.93, but his 2:07.13 lifetime best came from touching bronze at the Tokyo Olympics. In 2022, Mattsson placed 8th in the event final at 2:09.65. Other 2:10-barrier threats aiming for the final include top 8 seeds Mexico’s Miguel De Lara Ojeda (2:09.60) and Japan’s Ikuru Hiroshima (2:09.40) along with Canada’s James Dergousoff (2:10.01).

SwimSwam’s Picks – 200 Breast