2024 Worlds Preview: Aussie Women Strong in Free Relays (No Surprise), the Rest is a Mess.

2024 WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

• February 11th – February 18th (pool swimming)
• Doha, Qatar
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index

In the strangest World Championships in several generations, we will do our best to pick the medalists and finalists for the 2024 World Championships. It’s going to be weird and fun, all at the same time. Let’s dive in.

While certain events will be less competitive than others due to multiple absences, relays naturally will be affected fourfold. Typically, upon preparing for these reviews, one has multitudes of selection meet data to pour over, and there are obvious choices to help to make relay predictions.

With smaller roster sizes and multiple event holes on teams, all of these predictions are based solely on information that can be gleaned from published rosters and the entry sheets. I would expect there to be at least several relay scratches over the course of the championships.

While the medley relays may seem, initially, the hardest to fill, as they require a swimmer for each stroke, as long as you have one that can swim, you’ll be okay, whereas, in the 4×200 free, a nation would need four (or more) swimmers that can race the 200 distance.

What’s at stake: Australia and the United States have qualified all of their relays by virtue of their placings from Fukuoka, while China has safely qualified in the free relays and Canada in the medley relay. The remaining 13 entries are selected from the fastest performances from the results from both last summer and next week.

Disclaimer: The uncertainty of every swimmer’s training and the fact that said uncertainty is multiplied by four for each relay makes these previews closer to educated stabs in the dark than informed predictions. The US could field a team for all of the relays or they could scratch all of them. The Australians could decide to rest their best swimmers so as to focus on their individual events. What we do know is that there are going to be some familiar faces and a lot of new faces and nations in the finals, and while the end times will certainly not rival those in Fukuoka, look at the individual splits to see how they are preparing for the upcoming Olympics.

4x100m Free Relay: “Sprinter’s Paradise”

BY THE NUMBERS — Women’s 4×100 Free Relay

• World Record: Australia – 3:27.96 (2023)
• World Junior Record: Canada – 3:36.19 (2017)
• Championship Record: Australia – 3:27.69
• 2023 World Champion: Australia – 3:27.96

Australia absolutely savaged the competition and their own World Record last year in Fukuoka—the team of Mollie O’Callaghan (52.08). Shayna Jack (51.69), Meg Harris (52.29), and Emma McKeon (51.90) broke the world record by over a second and a half. Their winning time of 3:27.96 was clear of the field by nearly four full seconds (a larger margin than their win in the 4×200 free).

Australia

The Australians return only one of their finalist to this year’s meet (Jack), so the World Record is safely out of grasp. Brianna Throssell and Madi Wilson also earned their gold medals from relay swims, with Throssell being the only one of the two to be entered at this meet. Splitting 53.95 on last year’s relay, she was the slowest of all the Aussies but will most likely be a fixture on this relay.

Joining Jack, who is the #3 seed in the 100 (52.28) but has been as fast as 51.5 with a flying start, are Throssel (7th at 2023 Aussie Trials – 54.30), Alexandria Perkins (12th at 2023 Aussie Trials – 55.55) and Jaclyn Barclay (who has a PB of 55.65).

USA

Like the Aussies, the US brings back only one of their four relay legs from last year: the human Swiss Army knife that is Kate Douglass. Douglass was the fastest of all the Americans, anchoring the relay home in 52.28 (but has been as fast as 51.79). While lacking in depth on the women’s side, the US may have a leg up on the Australians in the form of Claire Curzan.

Curzan, whose ups and downs have been well documented, is not entered in the 100 free but recently swam 54.71 at the Knoxville Pro Swim Series and has been as fast as 53.55 (from 2021). While having an excellent 1-2, the US’ small roster size of just eight really hinders their choices. Addison Sauickie fits in well with a PB of 55.39, but the 4th slot could fall to Kayla Han, Piper Enge, Kate Hurst, or Rachel Klinker, all of whom have PB around 57.5 or higher.

China 

The last of the safely qualified for Paris teams are the Chinese. They return none of their finals relay legs from Fukuoka and only Ai Yanhan (54.09) returns from the prelims swim. Ai is entered in the individual 100 with a seed time of 54.21 and holds a PB of 54.00. Distance star Li Bingjie and IMer Yu Yiting swam on the prelims of the 4×100 free relay at the Asian Games, with Li swimming a flat start time of 54.32 and Yiting a flying start of 54.41. Likely joining the trio is Lyu Yue, who is entered in the 50 free with a time of 25.45. Lyu is not entered in the individual 100 but swam 55.73 at the Chinese National Championships this past December.

Netherlands and Canada

Almost certainly qualified for Paris by nature of their 6th and 7th place finishes in Fukuoka are the Dutch and Canadian teams. Leading the Dutch, should they contest the relay, is Marrit Steenbergen, who enters as a medal contender in the 100 with an entry time of 52.71. Supporting Steenbergen are likely some combination of Kim Busch, Maaike de Waard, Janna van Kooten, and Kira Toussaint, as the only other swimmers on the roster are distance swimmer Imani de Jong and breaststroker Tes Schouten.

The Canadians bring a solid squad to Doha and could pass a few countries and contest for the medals. Leading the charge is likely the pair of relay stalwarts Taylor Ruck and Katerine Savard, both of whom were on the relay in Fukuoka. Not named to that team, but a prelims member of the Canadian relay that won silver at the Olympics is Rebecca Smith, who will bring that key third leg that several other teams are missing. The 4th and final spot is likely filled by Sarah Fournier, who is entered in the individual 100 with a best time of 54.58.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Notes: While the math points to the Canadian relay being the fastest, the use of PB times is misconstruing the data a little. While it is certainly possible that Canada swims a 3:36, Ruck anchored last year in 53.99, and Savard’s flying start in the prelims yielded a time of 54.47, so while fast, certainly not at her PB had it been a flat start. The Dutch, too, are close to the Australians, but several of the PB are over three years old, and Busch led off the prelims in 54.66 and in the finals went 55.05 so getting back to 54.05 at a meet where everyone’s form and preparedness is in question seems unlikely.

4×200 Free Relay – “What’s Distance got to do with it?”

BY THE NUMBERS — WOMEN’S 4×200 Free Relay

• World Record: Australia – 7:37.50 (2023)
• World Junior Record: Canada – 7:51.47 (2017)
• Championship Record: Australia – 7:37.50 (2023)
• 2023 World Champion:  Australia – 7:37.50

Australia

Can I just write ibid here, or say see above to describe the thoroughness of the Australian domination in this relay? Last summer, the quartet of O’Callaghan, Jack, Throssell, and Ariarne Titmus broke the WR by over a second and a half and became the first team to swim under 7:39.00. Both Jack and Throssell return, which is a great sign, as does Kiah Melverton, who swam a prelims leg. The fourth potential leg most likely will fall to Barclay, who has been as fast as 1:59.96.

USA

The USA’s potential relay is near on impossible to guess, as Douglass’s PB is 2:03.21 from 2019 and Curzan’s is 2:00.36 from 2022, and that’s not considering that they are swimming six individual events each, so they are unlikely to be used mid-meet. Addison Sauickie (1:57.98)  would be a natural fit as she is swimming the event individually. Still, the remaining available swimmers all have PBs over 2:01, with Han (2:01.70), Hurst (2:02.43), and Lilla Bognar (2:03.17) being the next three fastest.

China

Like the Australians, the Chinese return two legs from the bronze medal team last year, Ai Yanhan and Li Bingjie, and one prelims swimmer, Yang Peiqi. Likely filling that 4th spot is Ma Yonghui, who went 1:59.19 at the Chinese Spring National Championships.

Great Britain and Canada

Team GB make their first and only women’s relay appearance in the 4×200 and looks like a strong medal contender in it. They return three-quarters of their relay last year. Freya Colbert, Lucy Hope, and Abbie Wood will most likely be joined by Medi Harris, who has not entered any individual events but carries a PB of 1:58.59 in the 200, though the Welshwoman is more known a a backstroker.

Canada returns only two prelims swimmers, Ella Jansen and Katerine Savard, but brings in Rebecca Smith and possibly Taylor Ruck. Ruck, whose only individual entry in the 50 free and has been as fast as 1:54.44, recently swam the 200 at the Knoxville PSS, where she swam a 2:01.33.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Notes: While the math points to the Canadian relay being the fastest, again, the use of PB times is misconstruing the data a little. As mentioned above, Ruck has a PB of 1:54.44, but last month swam 2:01.33. Rebecca Smith has long been a key member of the Canadian relays but did not make the 2023 Worlds team and withdrew from competing at the Pan-Am Games this past fall. The Australians, returning two of their World Records holders, albeit the slowest legs, is a tough hill for any country to climb, but Great Britain bringing back 3 legs and Harris as a relay-only swimmer may make the race closer than

4×100 Medley Relay – “Medley of Gold”

BY THE NUMBERS — WOMEN’S 4×100 Medley Relay

• World Record: USA – 3:50.40 (2019)
• World Junior Record: Canada – 3:58.38 (2017)
• Championship Record: USA – 3:50.40 (2019)
• 2023 World Champion:  USA – 3:52.08

USA

The only women’s relay in which the US placed atop the podium last year has a challenging path to repeat. Only Douglass returns to the relay, likely taking on the freestyle leg again. Piper Enge slots nicely into the breaststroke leg. Claire Curzan could do fly or back but likely slots into the backstroke, and Rachel Klinker, with a PB of 58.39, takes on the fly.

Australia

The Aussies return only one leg as well but have a much clearer idea for the other legs. Abbey Harkin returns for the breaststroke legs. Alexandria Perkins/Throssell and Shayna Jack take on the last two legs. The backstroke duties fall to whoever is the fastest between Iona Anderson and Jacyln Barclay, with Anderson currently having the faster PB.

Canada

Canada will use Ingrid Wilm, who swam the prelims in 2023 and will call upon Sophie Angus to swim the breaststroke again. Veteran relay piece Katerine Savard will swim the butterfly leg, and the anchor leg will be filled by either Sarah Fournier (who is entered in the individual 100) or Taylor Ruck.

China

The Chinese, like the Canadians, only return their breaststroker, Tang Qianting. Backstroke most likely falls to Chen Xin, their only entrant in the individual event. However, Chen Jie has been as fast as 59.43, albeit back in 2017, and is only racing the 50. The fly duties could fall to Gong Zhenqi (entered only in the 100 fly) or Yu Yiting (entered in 50 fly and 200 IM), and Ai Yanhan will take on the anchor leg.

Sweden and Netherlands

Sweden could be the heavy favorites for gold as they return all four of their relay swimmers from last year. The squad of Michelle Coleman, Sophie Hansson, Louise Hansson and Sarah Sjostrom combined for a time of 3:56.32. While that time was over two seconds out of scoring, with every other team missing key legs, this could be Sweden’s race to lose. To note, the Dutch also return all four legs from last year as well, but finished close to two seconds back of the Swedes.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Notes: The cumulative addition of personal bests points to Sweden running away with this relay. This is the only women’s relay that the Swedes are entered in, and maybe Sarah Sjostrom‘s best (and only) chance to win a relay gold. The Swedish squad of Coleman, Jennie Johansson, Sjostrom, and L. Hansson won silver in the medley relay back in 2015, in a then-European Record of 3:55.24. Of all the relays, I have the most confidence that the US will swim this relay, not that I am very confident. With it falling on the last day and with the individual events completed, Curzan and Douglass may be available for it. However, to make the final, they may need to use one or both of them in the prelims.