With Shaine Casas Out Of The 200 Back, How Does The Landscape In Men’s Events Change?

2023 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

• June 27 – July 1, 2023
• Indianapolis, IN
• Indiana University Natatorium
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• Psych Sheet (updated version, 6/26)
• Live Results
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• How To Watch
• Day 1 Prelims Live Recap | Day 1 Finals Live Recap
• Day 2 Prelims Live Recap

So far, the 2023 U.S. National Championships has been full of surprises. One of them was the performances of Shaine Casas, who was favored to make the U.S. World Championship team in several events like the 100 free, 50 back, 100 back, 200 back, 100 fly, and 200 IM. However, his swims so far indicate that he might not qualify for anything.

First in the 100 free, Casas added six-tenths from his personal best time of 48.23, going 48.94 to finish 18th overall. Prior to trials, he had been picked by SwimSwam to place fourth. Then, after medalling at Worlds in the 200 back last year, he underperformed in the 200 back, going 1:58.50 to place 13th and miss the ‘A’ final. He was well off his best time 1:55.35 from Worlds.

Casas is seeded second in the 100 fly, third in the 50 and 100 back, and first in the 200 IM. However, his early misfires beg the question: will he be out of the contender conversation for his remaining events, and if so, who’s going to make Worlds over him?

In the 200 back, Ryan Murphy is the clear favorite to win. However, that second spot is wide open now that Casas is out. Could it be Destin Lasco, the most dominant 200 backstroker in the NCAA right now that’s carrying a lot of momentum after qualifying for Worlds in the 4×100 free relay? Or could it be Jack Aikins, the second-fastest swimmer out of prelims and the third-place finish at last years’ trials? Can Tommy Janton pull something out of his sleeve, just like what his Notre Dame teammate Chris Guiliano did last night? And what about Daniel Diehl and Keaton Jones, who are two rising teenagers that both made their way into the ‘A’ final? All of a sudden, a spot Casas was heavily favored to take is now anyone’s spot.

Even with Casas out of the picture, the landscape in the 100 back shouldn’t change that much. Murphy and Hunter Armstrong are reigning Worlds medalists and the top two seeds in this event, and even with Armstrong missing the 100 free ‘A’ final, these two Cal training partners should still be the favorites given how good they both looked in-season. The same goes for the 50 back—Armstrong and defending world champion Justin Ress should still be the favorites regardless of what Casas does, but the race is going to be less close than it would be if Casas was on form.

The 100 fly is where things could get very interesting. Both Casas and top seed Caeleb Dressel aren’t at their best this meet, so there’s a variety of new faces that could step up. Of course, 2022 Worlds qualifier Michael Andrew is in the picture. But other names are also coming up, such as newly-minted Worlds qualifier Thomas Heilman, who is the ninth seed and primed for a major drop in the 100 fly after he improved nearly two seconds in the 200 fly. Also look out for fifth seed Dare Rose, the top 50 fly prelims swimmer; and sixth seed Aiden Hayes, who is the NCAA champion in the 200 fly and made the ‘A’ final in the 100 fly.

In the 200 IM, Carson Foster becomes a heavy favorite if Casas is off-form. It also gives room for third seed Chase Kalisz to qualify in this event for the third year in a row. No one aside from Casas is within a second of Kalisz’ entry time, so there isn’t much else to talk about here—but with how crazy this meet has been, who knows?

Then, of course, there’s a chance that Casas turns it around and bounces back in the back half of his meet. With the 100 fly and 200 IM being his two best events, he could possibly be putting more emphasis on his training there rather than backstroke or freestyle. After all, he did go 50.80 in the 100 fly just last March and 1:56.06 in the 200 IM this April, which seemed to be an indication that he was in good shape prior to trials.

Whether Casas will make a comeback or not is something that cannot be answered now, but his recent swims definitely change the picture in several men’s events.