With 13 days and two major international meets remaining in the qualifying period, here's an update on the top 6 Americans in each event after Pan Ams. Archive photo via Mike Lewis/Ola Vista Photography
The Pan American Games have wrapped up, with significant impacts to the swimmers in line for 2019-2020 U.S. National Team status. Here’s a look at the current top 6 in each event, with only 13 days remaining in the qualifying period.
here are two major meets remaining within the qualifying period, though athletes could also qualify through any FINA or USA Swimming sanctioned meet:
as determined by FINA.org’s World Rankings from January 1, 2019 through August 25, 2019
Rankings will be pulled from the FINA site on September 3 (giving swimmers a chance to make sure their time is included in the database)
Prelims, semifinals and finals (A, B, C and D) from all USA Swimming or FINA sanctioned meets are eligible
Relay leadoffs, time trials, swim-offs and intermediate splits are not eligible
Note: we did our best to pull out the top 6 swimmers over the qualifying period while factoring out time trials and relay leadoffs, but it’s possible we missed a swim or two here. If you notice one, please let us know in the comments and we will update accordingly. Just don’t bring up Regan Smith‘s medley relay leadoff without reading the bullet point directly above this one.
oh no wonder! i remember seeing him in rio for italy!
Shibly
4 years ago
My prediction..1.at least 4 females break 53 secs barrier in the 100 m free..namely Manuel..Weitzeil..Erica..Comerford. 2. Adrian will miss the Olympic team totally..3.100 &200 m backstroke will be the fiercest battle..Ragan will make both the individual event..in male counterpart newcomers will make the team..hopefully Casas and Katz will make the upcoming Olympic team…4.Ragan will compete in 3 individual events in the Tokyo Olympic..in 200 m butterfly she may break 2:04 secs barrier in the ot…5.Lochte..Schmitt will fail to make the Olympic team…7. Someone new will dethrone Dahlia in the 100 m butterfly..8. USA females will break WR in the 800 m free relay in the Tokyo Olympic.
Manuel..Comerford already passed this threshold…remaining only two…4. I may be too much optimistic abt Ragan..i think she can break the barrier i mentioned
There have been a number of ties at recent WCs and Olympics. So it could happen.
There was even a rare triple-tie for silver in the men’s 100 fly in Rio.
marklewis
4 years ago
Shaine Casas looks like the newcomer of the year on the USA team. He’s on the list for the 100 and 200 backstroke and the 200 IM. And if you ask him, he says he’s a butterflyer too!
Bold (and early) 2020 Olympic team picks:
Michael Andrew- doesn’t make team
Grevers: doesn’t make team
Baker: doesn’t make team
Smoliga: does make team (possibly just on 4×100 free)
Berkhoff: does make team
Wilson: makes team in 100 and 200
Neal: doesn’t make team
Dwyer: does make team
Pebley: doesn’t make team
Honestly the boldest choice there is probably that Berkoff does make the team.
Not that she’s incapable, but like…proclaiming anyone besides Regan Smith to make the team in the women’s backstrokes right now could be considered an underdog pick. And I wouldn’t even call her a lock given how deep this group is and that she broke those records on a single taper season and will have to be smart about how she plays Trials.
TBH if someone goes for broke in that group and sells out for Trials, they could bump someone and then miss the medal at the Olympics.
In order of most likely to make the team:
Smith,
Baker,
Bacon,
Smoliga,
Berkoff,
Nelson,
Stadden
Smoliga has been stuck at 58 high for a while now, I don’t see her dropping. Bacon, Stadden, and Berkoff are all young and have a lot of potential for drops. Baker still has a 58.0 PB and definitely has time to recover from the injuries she’s had this summer. People keep counting out Nelson, but give her a year to focus on LCM and she’s a contender
He has too many good shots at it (50 FS, 100BR, 100BK, 200IM), and he will be one of the swimmers who will definitely be fresh for trials. He also is young and we should expect some improvement over the next 12 months.
He doesn’t have the huge taper drops lots of swimmers have, but he has historically been much more consistent over a season than is typical.
To do that MA needs to focus on ONE of these events. He doesn’t have a lock on anything and there are some fast new kids ready to eat his breakfast, lunch, snack and dinner.
He’s only consistent because his training style effectively allows him to be on a full-time taper. He’ll sweep events at Pro Series meets and then get wrecked when it comes to taper time for others because he’s nearly always performing at max speed.
If Andrew makes the team, he’ll be 5-6th in the 100 free and make it for a prelims relay spot. The best shot he has is the 200 IM, and even then, we haven’t seen Lochte at his current peak yet, and Kalisz is on the top right now for a reason. Say what you will about Chase Kalisz, he knows how to perform come taper time.
IDK, I just don’t see Michael Andrew making an… Read more »
Tough call for MA – he’s the guy to beat for the #2 slot in the 50… but it’s far from a lock, and his next best shot is probably the 200 IM, which would call for a different training approach. The odds get longer in the stroke 100s, although he’s obviously pretty close, especially in the 100 breast. He’s never been able to pull off a decent 100 free. I won’t be surprised if he makes 3 events, or nothing at all.
Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though.
Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …
Question- doesnt mitch d’arrigo represent italy? can he still be part of the us national team?
He changed a couple years ago!
He switched his sports citizenship in 2017: https://swimswam.com/italian-olympian-mitch-darrigo-changing-sports-citizenship-to-usa-eligible-for-wugs/
oh no wonder! i remember seeing him in rio for italy!
My prediction..1.at least 4 females break 53 secs barrier in the 100 m free..namely Manuel..Weitzeil..Erica..Comerford. 2. Adrian will miss the Olympic team totally..3.100 &200 m backstroke will be the fiercest battle..Ragan will make both the individual event..in male counterpart newcomers will make the team..hopefully Casas and Katz will make the upcoming Olympic team…4.Ragan will compete in 3 individual events in the Tokyo Olympic..in 200 m butterfly she may break 2:04 secs barrier in the ot…5.Lochte..Schmitt will fail to make the Olympic team…7. Someone new will dethrone Dahlia in the 100 m butterfly..8. USA females will break WR in the 800 m free relay in the Tokyo Olympic.
1. I can definitely envision two and potentially three break 53 seconds in the women’s 100 m freestyle.
4. I’m hoping Regan Smith can break the 2:06.00 barrier in the women’s 200 m butterfly.
Manuel..Comerford already passed this threshold…remaining only two…4. I may be too much optimistic abt Ragan..i think she can break the barrier i mentioned
1. I would say it would be too ambitious for Brown or Walsh to break 0:53.00 from 0:54.13 within a year.
4. Regan Smith’s swimming hierarchy:
women’s 100 m backstroke
women’s 200 m backstroke
.
.
.
.
women’s 200 m butterfly
.
.
.
.
women’s 100 m butterfly
Why forget Weitzeil
If two swimmers tie for 2nd place in the finals at the Olympic trials in an individual event, do they have a swim-off?
Yes
The Thunder-Dome of swim-offs
There have been a number of ties at recent WCs and Olympics. So it could happen.
There was even a rare triple-tie for silver in the men’s 100 fly in Rio.
Shaine Casas looks like the newcomer of the year on the USA team. He’s on the list for the 100 and 200 backstroke and the 200 IM. And if you ask him, he says he’s a butterflyer too!
close, but Luca takes that prize IMO
Baker’s 200 backstroke was at a Pro Swim Series. I thought those times don’t count towards making the team?
They do.
What about the Open Water National Team?
Bold (and early) 2020 Olympic team picks:
Michael Andrew- doesn’t make team
Grevers: doesn’t make team
Baker: doesn’t make team
Smoliga: does make team (possibly just on 4×100 free)
Berkhoff: does make team
Wilson: makes team in 100 and 200
Neal: doesn’t make team
Dwyer: does make team
Pebley: doesn’t make team
Honestly the boldest choice there is probably that Berkoff does make the team.
Not that she’s incapable, but like…proclaiming anyone besides Regan Smith to make the team in the women’s backstrokes right now could be considered an underdog pick. And I wouldn’t even call her a lock given how deep this group is and that she broke those records on a single taper season and will have to be smart about how she plays Trials.
TBH if someone goes for broke in that group and sells out for Trials, they could bump someone and then miss the medal at the Olympics.
In order of most likely to make the team:
Smith,
Baker,
Bacon,
Smoliga,
Berkoff,
Nelson,
Stadden
Smoliga has been stuck at 58 high for a while now, I don’t see her dropping. Bacon, Stadden, and Berkoff are all young and have a lot of potential for drops. Baker still has a 58.0 PB and definitely has time to recover from the injuries she’s had this summer. People keep counting out Nelson, but give her a year to focus on LCM and she’s a contender
Smith
Baker
Smoliga (The drop is a long time coming)
Bacon
Stadden
Berkoff
It’s been night and day for Kathleen Baker from 2018 to 2019.
A personal best of 58.73 may not cut it at the 2020 Olympic Trials.
Beata Nelson?
https://uwbadgers.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=6633
I don’t see it.
Baker is 4th. Her long term health is still an issue.
Michael Andrew will make the team imo.
He has too many good shots at it (50 FS, 100BR, 100BK, 200IM), and he will be one of the swimmers who will definitely be fresh for trials. He also is young and we should expect some improvement over the next 12 months.
He doesn’t have the huge taper drops lots of swimmers have, but he has historically been much more consistent over a season than is typical.
I agree with most of your other predictions.
To do that MA needs to focus on ONE of these events. He doesn’t have a lock on anything and there are some fast new kids ready to eat his breakfast, lunch, snack and dinner.
Nope, he is good at a lot, but doesn’t have that 1 “go to” event. His best shot will be getting 6th in the 100
Free.
He will likely swim the 100 breast, 50 free and 100 fly.
That’s a bold prediction.
He’s only consistent because his training style effectively allows him to be on a full-time taper. He’ll sweep events at Pro Series meets and then get wrecked when it comes to taper time for others because he’s nearly always performing at max speed.
If Andrew makes the team, he’ll be 5-6th in the 100 free and make it for a prelims relay spot. The best shot he has is the 200 IM, and even then, we haven’t seen Lochte at his current peak yet, and Kalisz is on the top right now for a reason. Say what you will about Chase Kalisz, he knows how to perform come taper time.
IDK, I just don’t see Michael Andrew making an… Read more »
“and the gets wrecked when it comes to taper time……” See 2018 Nationals. He has 2 great shots and 2 pretty good shots.
MR USRPT wil definitely NOT make the team. spread himself too thinly. not even in the 100 free relay as there are 6-7 people who have already been 47.
Tough call for MA – he’s the guy to beat for the #2 slot in the 50… but it’s far from a lock, and his next best shot is probably the 200 IM, which would call for a different training approach. The odds get longer in the stroke 100s, although he’s obviously pretty close, especially in the 100 breast. He’s never been able to pull off a decent 100 free. I won’t be surprised if he makes 3 events, or nothing at all.
Dwyer? Wouldn’t that be something…
Correct me if I’m wrong. On the men’s side, is the 50 free the only event the US had the fastest 2 swimmers compete at worlds?
Yep. 200 IM has Andrew but he didn’t swim that event at Worlds.