At the beginning of the year, most of the SwimSwam writers gave their wild predictions (and some alter ego takes) for the year. Let’s take a look at how those all panned out.
OUR WILD PREDICTIONS
Our real “wild predictions” were meant to be a bit of a hot take. Nothing too obvious, but also something fun enough that it could happen. Let us know in the comments what you think is most likely to happen and least likely to happen.
They all start off as “My wild prediction for 2023 is that…..”
Ben: 7 Arizona State University pro swimmers will make the US 2023 World Championship team. That is Chase Kalisz, Jay Litherland, Olivia Smoliga, Simone Manuel, Regan Smith, Ryan Held, and Hali Flickinger.
Result: Ben went 4 for 7 here as Kalisz, Smoliga, Smith, and Held all qualified for the US 2023 World Championship team.
Anne: We will have new champions in the men’s and women’s Division II of the NCAA, no repeat for Queens.
Result: Anne technically was right as the Indianapolis men won the Division II title and the Nova Southeastern women won as well, although Queens began their transitional year to Division I last season and her prediction was tongue-in-cheek.
Braden: Michael Phelps‘ 400 IM Record gets broken
Result: Well, this one happened. Phelps’ became the longest-standing world record holder in an event in June, but Leon Marchand did not that last long as Marchand broke the record at the 2023 World Championships swimming a 4:02.50, faster than Phelps’ record of a 4:03.84.
Anya: The Texas Women will go 1-2-3 in the 200 fly at NCAAs.
Result: Instead of going 1-2-3, the Texas women went 1-3-5 at NCAAs. Emma Sticklen won, Kelly Pash was 3rd, and Dakota Luther finished 5th.
YanYan: Kate Douglass will win the 200 IM at the LCM World Championships and will split sub-30 on the freestyle leg.
Result: Not only did Douglass win the 200 IM at Worlds, but she did so splitting a sub-30 freestyle leg coming home as she split a 29.83 on her final 50.
Riley: Jordan Crooks will go undefeated in the 50 freestyle for the whole year.
Result: Crooks technically did not go undefeated in the event this year, but he did go undefeated in the SCY 50 freestyle for the whole year. He won the event at SECs and NCAAs, the biggest hurdles in the SCY version of the event. In the LCM pool, Crooks was 6th in the event at both Pro Swim-Knoxville as well as at the 2023 World Championships.
James: There is a 2016 repeat and Penny Oleksiak and Simone Manuel will tie for gold in the women’s 100 freestyle at Worlds.
Result: There was no 2016 repeat as Oleksiak and Manuel did not tie for gold this summer. Manuel decided to not attend US Summer Nationals and thus was unable to compete for a spot at Worlds.
Retta: Great Britain’s Lewis Burras will wind up on the podium in the men’s 50 freestyle at Worlds in Japan.
Result: Burras was the 4th seed heading into the 50 free final in Japan and ultimately finished 7th, 0.26 seconds off of the podium.
Spencer: Summer McIntosh will break the women’s long course 400 free and 400 IM World Records.
Result: McIntosh did break both World Records but only one stands today. By technicality though, Spencer got this one right. McIntosh broke both World Records at Canadian Trials this past spring.
Annika: More breaststroke DQ’s for the dolphin kick at the end of the breaststroke kicks that we’ve been seeing.
Result: At 2022 SCM Worlds, there were a lot of DQ’s for breastroke kicks. There were not as many (or more importantly “more”) DQs for that this year, although one notable DQ was from Emma Weyant in the 400 IM at Summer Nationals.
Barry: LeBron James buys the LA Current helping kickstart the ISL, nevertheless, the LA Current will once again finish fourth.
Result: LeBron James did not buy the LA Current, or any ISL team, and the ISL did not begin again.
Sophie: Daniel Diehl wins an individual medal at Worlds.
Result: Diehl just missed out on qualifying for Worlds as he finished third in the 200 backstroke at Summer Nationals in a 1:56.04, less than half a second off of makings the Worlds team.
Giusy: Gregorio Paltrinieri will set a World Record.
Result: Paltrinieri was the top seed in the 1500 freestyle but pulled out of Worlds in Japan before the 1500 freestyle.
OUR ALTER EGO TAKES
Time for us to have some fun and give some alter ego takes. Have some fun and read them below:
Ben: “The 2023 men’s NCAA podium in the 500 free will feature 3 men from Purdue”
Result: The 500 freestyle featured 0 swimmers from Purdue.
Sophie: “Beata Nelson gets to swim at 2023 SCM Worlds”- (Note: Sophie knows there is no 2023 SCM Worlds but it is still funny)
Result: No SCM Worlds so it really couldn’t happen.
YanYan: “Ariarne Titmus retires from swimming so we are forever deprived of the Ledecky vs Titmus vs McIntosh showdown”
Result: Titmus did not retire but the showdown did happen.
Anya: “The Iowa men and the Michigan State women will win the 2023 Big Ten Championship. Oh wait-”
Result: Neither team was reinstated this year and it looks like they will not win the 2024 Big Ten Championship either.
Nicole: “In 2023, Caeleb Dressel will not make a US International Roster”
Result: This one happened, so maybe Nicole can see the future?
2024 Hot take:
The US men do not win gold in any relay in Paris (losing the 400 medley relay for the first time ever)
Extremely hot take:
The US men do not medal at all in the 400 medley relay.
Could basically distill that to “I don’t think Caeleb Dressel will be close to his best form”.
I’d like to think it’s more of a reflection of the recent progression of swimming around the world (esp. Italy, China, Korea, etc). It’s exciting to see the sport continuing to develop worldwide. I’m rooting for the US men, but they’ve got fierce competition and it’s not all on Caeleb’s shoulders.
The world is definitely getting deeper, but there’s no scenario short of a DQ where a US relay with a 49.3 fly split (or 46-high free split) doesn’t medal.
2024 Hot Takes:
Rachel Stege qualifies for the U.S. olympic team in the 400 free, placing 2nd to Ledecky at trials.
Summer McIntosh takes back her 400 free world record, and wins the olympic title. She also wins olympic gold medals in the 200 free, 200 fly, and 200/400 IM. She breaks the world records in the 200 free, 200 IM, and breaks her own world record in the 400 IM.
Claire Weinstein has a big breakthrough in the 800 free, placing 2nd to Ledecky at trials, and making the final at the olympics.
Katie Grimes breaks the american record in the 400 IM, taking home silver at the games behind McIntosh. She also is silver behind Ledecky… Read more »
So your US women’s 4×1 doesn’t even contain the only American whose been able to split 51 recently.
You think team USA and AUS will both be “well under” the 4×100 free world record? The current record has 51.99 average split, and you left Douglass off, who is the only American to split under that since 2019. So which three swimmers do you have splitting 51 mid?
McIntosh beating Titmus and MOC and Haughey in the 200 free is just not happening. And beating Titmus in the 400 free is not likely. Everyone below 53 in the USA relay is also not going to happen. Sorry.
I think McKeown under 2.03 and perhaps under 57 (although that is tough) could happen. But not both her and Smith.
You are arguing that McIntosh will have the greatest individual performance in swimming history. Greater than even 2008 Phelps.
I’m shutting that down right now, I will be hugely impressed if she medals all 5 possible events, as the 400IM/200 free double means she would likely lose to Haughey for bronze.
But she won’t race all 5, and in this day and age and her competition, winning 4 golds against more specialist swimmers is extremely unlikely.
Phelps was 23 in Beijing, and he had tried once before in Athens to have the perfect Olympics at 19. He took the lessons and everything came together to perfection.
It is more likely that McIntosh pulls it off in… Read more »
That Summer prediction is unhinged. There’s ‘hot takes’ and then there’s straight up fan fic. But if you’re going that far, why stop at 5 individual golds and multiple WRs?I say she swims into the 4th dimension and also defeats Thanos.
Wild take: Australia wins 4 relays in Paris
Alt take: Kaylee wins 4 golds in Paris, breaks the remaining 2 backstroke world records at short course worlds, then pulls an Ash Barty and immediately retires on top as one of the greatest swimmers of all time.
You could be correct actually here.
Ash Barty is one of the greatest swimmers of all time too? There’s nothing she can’t do.
Summer McIntosh will be the first female swimmer to win five individual Olympic medal since Shane Gould did it for the first time 51 years ago, and cement herself as one of the GOATS.
I don’t think she’ll swim 5. And if she does, are we sure she medals in the 200 free after swimming a 400IM the same session?
ASU wins 4 NCAA D1 relays and the men’s NCAA championship. Leon Marchand breaks all three of his best times in 200/400 IM and 200 BR to win by 2+ seconds in each race.
At least one of Paul Biedermann’s 2009 WRs will fall at the Olympic Games.
2024 Hot Takes:
In Mens D1, ASU wins 3 of 5 relays and 5 individual championships on their way to the team NCAA championship!
In Men’s D3, NYU wins 3 of 5 relays and 5 individual championships on their way to the team NCAA championship!