Overreacting to Day 1 Prelims of the 2023 World Champs: Sam Short Has Arrived

2023 WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

• July 23 to 30, 2023
• Fukuoka, Japan
• Marine Messe Fukuoka
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Entry Book
• Live Results (Omega)
• Day 1 Prelims Live Recap

The day 1 prelims session of the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka is now in the books. Since the first session is now complete, it’s time to overreact to what we saw at this very early stage of the meet.

SAM SHORT IS THE NEXT DISTANCE KING

In one of the best races of the morning, rising Australian star Sam Short put on a show in the men’s 400 free prelims. Racing like someone with nothing to lose, Short jumped out to an early lead in the fastest of the circle-seeded heats this morning. He would stay under Paul Biedermann’s World Record pace through the first 350m of the race, roaring to a new personal best of 3:42.44. Not only was the time a new PB, it makes Short the fastest swimmer in the world this year.

There was quite a bit of hype surrounding Short heading into this World Championship, and I would argue he’s already living up to it. In a morning swim, he went out and pushed the pace from the start, so there’s no reason to think he won’t do the same in finals tonight. He didn’t really fade at all, so unless one of these other guys in the field works up the courage to take the race out with Short, it seems like he has a clear path to victory.

This final tonight could be the launching pad for this 19-year-old. Still young for a men’s distance swimmer, it’s on the table that Short has a lot more development in his swimming left in him. That’s a scary proposition for the other men’s distance swimmers around the world, be Short is already putting up stellar times as it stands.

If Short ends up winning the 400 free tonight and he ends up going another PB, I will predict that he also wins the men’s 800 free and 1500 free here in Fukuoka.

LEON MARCHAND IS BREAKING THE 400 IM WORLD RECORD IN FINALS

If you watched the session this morning, you probably had the same reaction to Leon Marchand‘s 400 IM prelims swim as I did. Through the first 200m of the race, you were asking yourself “is he about to break the World Record in prelims?” For a minute there, it really looked like he was going to. Marchand took the fly leg out under Michael Phelps’ World Record pace, then managed to make his way through the backstroke under pace as well.

The race turned a bit on breaststroke, however, where Marchand clearly seemed to begin shutting it down. He was swimming with a pretty relaxed tempo, and his two breaststroke turns were pretty slow as well. It’s important to note that breaststroke is possibly Marchand’s best stroke, so we know he’ll be faster there tonight.

though if you just looked at his time of 4:10.88, you might not be feeling to great about Marchand’s prospects to break Phelps’ legendary WR tonight, I came away from the race feeling all but certain he’s going to do it tonight. In fact, I’m willing to make an even more bold prediction after that prelims swim. I think that Marchand will shatter the record tonight and maybe, just maybe, go under 4:03.

AUSTRALIA AND CHINA ARE THE BIG WINNERS

Through the first session of the meet, both Australia and China look SHARP. Let’s take China first, because there’s always sort of a question around how China will perform at World Championships. Coming into this meet, the question was whether the Chinese team would be putting the bulk of their focus into Worlds, or if they would be targeting the Asian Games. Based off this morning, it seems they’ve put plenty of focus into this meet.

Right off the bat, Yu Yiting looked great in the women’s 200 IM prelims this morning. While it remains to be seen whether Yiting will be able to take down one of the big 3 (Douglass, Walsh, and McKeown), her swim this morning was certainly encouraging. Besides Yiting, Ye Shiwen was also under 2:10 this morning, swimming to a 7th-place finish. With both women already having been under 2:10 this morning, the chances of China advancing two swimmers to the final are looking good.

Zhang Yufei led the field in the women’s 100 fly this morning, finishing as the only swimmer in the field under 57 seconds. Just as was the case in the 200 IM, the second Chinese swimmer, Wang Yichun, also was in the top 8 this morning, taking 7th in 57.72.

Qin Haiyan led the way in the men’s 100 breast this morning, clocking a 58.26 to finish first by about half-a-second.

Moving on to Australia, they also got out to a roaring start. Of course, we knew Kaylee McKeown was going to be a force in the women’s 200 IM, and she looked relaxed and totally in control this morning. On the other hand, Jenna Forrester had a terrific swim this morning, swimming a 2:09.79 to be one of the 7 swimmers under 2:10.

Of course, Sam Short‘s 400 free was spectacular this morning, but Elijah Winnington also managed to make it into the final tonight, finishing 7th with a 3:44.63.

Another known quantity going in Ariarne Titmus clocked the 2nd-fastest time of the morning in the women’s 400 free. Titmus looked very relaxed, especially on the back half of her race this morning. Importantly, Lani Pallister also made her way into the final tonight.

There was also Shayna Jack‘s electric 52.28 lead-off on the women’s 4×100 free relay this morning. The performance makes Jack the #8 performer all-time in the event.

IT’S TIME FOR A USA SWIMMING MEN’S 400 FREE INTERVENTION

This gets brought up periodically and this morning’s prelims session was another painful reminder for USA Swimming that they have struggled for a long time when it comes to developing men’s 400 freestylers. Kieran Smith finished 9th this morning with a 3:45.77, while David Johnston was 17th in 3:48.68.

Truth be told, this probably isn’t even an overreaction, and is instead just a very logical conclusion: USA Swimming is not developing world class men’s 400 freestylers, and they haven’t been for some time. It’s somewhat shocking that a country the size of the USA, featuring an NGB that has the resources of USA Swimming, is failing to achieve any measurable success in the men’s 400 free. Yes, Kieran Smith earned the bronze medal in the event at the Tokyo Olympics. This is not an attempt to discredit his achievement, however, it’s worth noting that his time of 3:43.94 which he swam for bronze in Tokyo would not have been fast enough to medal at the 2016 Olympics, 2017 World Champs, 2019 World Champs, or the 2022 World Champs. On top of that, since Smith earned that bronze medal two years ago, he came in 7th in the event at last summer’s World Champs, and now, has missed the final entirely this morning. Let’s also not forget that at the 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials, Smith was the only swimmer in the men’s 400 free who swam under the then-FINA ‘A’ standard, and it took Jake Mitchell swimming a time trial for the U.S. just to qualify two swimmers to Tokyo in the event.

Moreover, while this is the first time the U.S. hasn’t advanced a swimmer to the men’s 400 free final in a while, those who have made it into finals in recent years have not fared well. Last summer, both Smith and Trey Freeman made it into the final in Budapest…they ended up coming in 7th and 8th respectively in that final. At the 2019 World Championships, Zane Grothe made it into the final…and finished 8th. Grothe also made the final at the 2017 World Championships, and while he didn’t come in 8th in that final, 7th isn’t really that much of a step up. It’s also worth mentioning that when Smith won his bronze medal in Tokyo two years ago, fellow American Jake Mitchell was also in the final…and he finished 8th. I don’t claim to be the smartest person in the world, but I don’t think I need to be to see that there’s a trend there.

Again, bringing up any of these individual swimmers is not meant to disparage them at all. Rather, I’m doing it to point out that something about the USA Swimming system is failing to develop men’s 400 freestylers, while it seems like virtually every other major swimming country is doing just fine in the event. What elements of training are Americans missing, or perhaps doing too much of? I’m not qualified to answer that, but it’s a question USA Swimming should be turning its attention to in my opinion.