2018 PAN PACIFIC CHAMPIONSHIPS
- Thursday, August 9th – Sunday, August 12th
- Tatsumi International Swim Center, Tokyo, Japan
- LCM
- Meet Central
- Psych Sheets
Caeleb Dressel has done it again. After entering 8 races at US Nationals, and no-showing for all but his primary 4 (50 free, 100 free, 50 fly, 100 fly), he’s entered in 6 individual races, to go with what should be at least 1 relay swim, at the 4-day Pan Pac Championships.
Pan Pacs will have only Olympic events, which means that the 50 fly is cleared off his schedule. He’s entered in the 50 free, 100 free, and 100 fly, which we presume that he’ll race in order to secure his spot at Worlds in all 3 events. He’s the defending World Champion in each, but right now is only assured of spots in the 50 free and 100 fly).
But he’s again entered in three less-typical events: the 100 breaststroke, the 200 IM, and the 200 free.
He broke through in the 100 breast and 200 IM in the spring at the SEC Championships when he swam a 50.03 in the 100 yard breaststroke, which at the time was the fastest ever (Ian Finnerty would break that time at NCAAs), and a 1:38.13 in the 200 yard IM, which is still the best time ever.
While federations are able to enter as many swimmers as they want in each race (and American athletes are allowed to expand their entries from the events they explicitly qualified in), only the top 2 swimmers from each nation advance to the A-final, while a 3rd swimmer can race in the B final.
While he scratched out of those ‘extra’ races at Nationals, we don’t know if he ever had any intention of swimming them, or if the plan was changed based on the struggles he had in his first race of the meet, the 100 free, where he finished 6th in 48.50.
Potential Dressel Schedule at Pan Pacs:
Day 1, Thursday, August 9th:
- 100 breaststroke
- 200 free
- Mixed 400 medley relay
Day 2, Friday, August 10th:
- 100 free
Day 3, Saturday, August 11th:
- 100 fly
- 200 IM
- 400 free relay (on the change that USA Swimming opts against using top 4 from nationals)
Day 4, Sunday, August 12th:
- 50 free
- 400 medley relay
Gotta start getting used to the lineup that will take down MP’s 8 Golds
I know his coach said he may be overtrained, but maybe he just needs the full taper.
I’m old enough to remember when Michael Phelps was supposed to hit 1:46 at a 2016 Trials prep meet in Austin. That didn’t happen, he layed eggs the entire meet through & it lit a fire that MP was overtrained. And what happened next, folks?
Uh, he went on to go much slower than in 2015 despite training way more?
He went slower, but not much slower. 1:53.3 is not a huge leap from 1:52.9. He dropped in his 200 im. At his age, it was amazing he could still compete at the level he did. Remember he had shoulder problems before the Trials.
I think a bigger factor in the times is that in 2016 he had to swim 3 rounds in highly competitive meets, two times over… in 2015 he had to go hard just once in each event. So I don’t think he was actually in better racing shape in 2015. But fair to wonder, if a different approach would have made him faster in Rio.
My belief is Dressel had just enough rest to be in that dreaded taper bubble during Nationals I think he’s going to be very fast at this meet & I am particularly keen on seeing what he can do in the 200 IM. I expect he’s got a WR swim in him there.
I think, as Troy basically admitted, that Dressel was in that dreaded overtrained bubble. I don’t think he’ll be nearly as fast as last year in frees (47.5, 21.3) close in the fly (49.8-9) and will need the rest for the relays and to make the 800 free relay slot for worlds, so there will be no 200 IM. I definitely missed my predication for him in the 100 fy at Nats, but was dead on in him dropping the 200 free to get rest and not breaking 21.5.
If you’re wrong again this time (100 fly), I look forward to the excuse you’ll make.
lol
You seem oddly confident when he went faster in two of his events than last year
I think he’ll be fast but WR 200 IM is out of the question for me. His UW helps him a lot in SCY. Can’t just convert his 1:38.
In the 200 IM? I agree maybe a WR in the 100 fly but he won’t go close in the 2IM, if he swims it which IMO is a big if.
The thing about Dressel in my opinion is he has a faster free split than Lochte or Phelps ever had and possibly the same in fly but where he lacks is backstroke and that’s where Lochte and Phelps has it because Lochte did 2 back a ton and Phelps started out as a backstroker. Breast is where I don’t know about because he hardly swims it
He swam Breast at NCAA, but his breast was much like very good Underwater and breakout, don´t know how he would translate that on LCM..
I’m not convinced his free would be better. Closing a 200 IM is more related to your 200 free than your 100 free. Phelps was one of the greatest 200 free swimmers of all time and Lochte was pretty great too.
He’s over a second faster than anyone else has ever been in yards without even a full rest. I realize turns and underwaters are much more important in yards but I don’t think it’s absurd to think Dressel at his best could challenge the WR.
If Dressel swims a WR (i.e under the 1.54.00 of that epic Worlds2011 race between Lochte and Phelps) in the 200 IM, a race nearly unknown for him in LCM, would be, imo, one of the most astonishing, incredible exploits in the whole sport’ history.
I know that PVDH predicted it months ago, but I’m an agnostic..lol
I have been telling people here since the 2016 Olympic Trials that he would be swimming the 200 IM in 2020, but it’s only after he shattered the NCAA record that people have started to believe it.
Hard to predict with so few data points. He went 2:01.9 back in May, at the same meet he went 23.1 / 49.6 / 1:51.9 in his freestyles. If he’s around his best times again, and drops relatively the same amount of time in the IM, that would put him between 1:53 and 1:57. Not much help there…
I think he probably has a much faster 200 free in him than the 1:47 from last summer, and if you just look at the 50-100 times it would suggest 1:53 high to 1:55 high.
Looking at short-course times, 1:38.1 is amazing but Dressel was much faster in his other events at NCAAs, so it’s not unreasonable to think he… Read more »
In perspective when lochte went 1:40 in 200 yd I’m his 200m I’m was 1:56 back in 2000 something.
I tend to agree with you. I think the same thing about Townly, he did not swim that well either and Ithink both of them were counting on just making it at nationals and then tapering for Tokyo. Time will tell.
“Has done it again” is one of the most famous phrase in Swimming..; applied to the recent WR of no-showing (50% at Nats) doesn’t sound well lol
I really hope that at Panpacs Dressel will really swim, beyond 50 and 100 free and 100 fly, AT LEAST a race among 200 free, 200 im, 100 breastroke (in decreasing order of possibility, imo).
I think he’ll do.
Dressel gunna swim the 200 for the relay spot next summer, the rest? Other than that I reckon he just stays with the usual 50/100 free and fly
I think there’s a good shot he’ll give the 200 fr a shot in prelims considering he doesn’t have a realistic shot at the breaststroke and he most likely won’t be in prelims of the mixed medley.
No relay prelims at PanPacs
If he puts up a good time in the 200 at panpac prelims, is that enough to get him considered for the worlds 800 relay?
If they planned that with Troy – why not
400 free relay : my prediction of the Team : Dressel ( most likely being much better at this point ) , Apple/Haas , Pieroni & Adrian
Haas should be there. He’s a relay beast.
Apple can surely be a relay beast as well
200 free on day 1 with 11 entries for Us swimmers …..Ouch !!! Thats gonna be fun to watch unfold , can’t wait
basically the nationals for the Worlds..
no. There is some extremely fast talent from other countries. Got to give credit where is due .
Breastroke makes no sense. 200 free yes to qualify for 800 relay…