2023 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS
- June 27 – July 1, 2023
- Indianapolis, IN
- Indiana University Natatorium
- LCM (50m)
- Meet Central
- Psych Sheet (updated version, 6/26)
- Live Results
- SwimSwam Preview Index
- How To Watch
- Day 1 Prelims Live Recap | Day 1 Finals Live Recap
- Day 2 Prelims Live Recap | Day 2 Finals Live Recap
- Day 3 Prelims Live Recap | Day 3 Finals Live Recap
- Day 4 Prelims Live Recap | Day 4 Finals Live Recap
- Day 5 Prelims Live Recap
Robert Gibbs contributed to this report.
With only one finals session remaining, the USA is mere hours away from naming its roster for the 2023 World Aquatics Championships in Fukuoka (technically swimmers have until 11:59 MDT on July 2nd to accept the invitation).
With a max of 26 athletes per gender and a combined total of 12 relay-only swimmers, the USA squad seemed to be in a precarious situation. However, a key number of doubles from last night’s session have helped the men’s team and shone a light on a way the men’s team can bring all of its qualifiers.
Let’s dive into the men’s projected roster and where it stands currently.
Swimmers who are not yet guaranteed a roster spot appear in italics.
[pdf-embedder url=”https://swimswam.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Roster-thru-Day-5-Prelims-Men.pdf” title=”Roster thru Day 5 Prelims – Men”]
Going into last night’s final the outlook on the men’s roster was grim. However, of the possible six roster spots available last night four were filled by those already on the team, guaranteeing that at least all athletes in Priorities 1 and 2 will make the team (the top four in the 100 and 200 free and the top two in each of the Olympic Events).
There are six final roster spots up for grabs tonight, two spots in each of the remaining events (200 IM, 800 Fr, and 50 Fr). If all six were to go to swimmers whose names are not listed above, then the winners would be slotted into Priority 1 and the runners-up into Priority 2, thus shifting down Priority 3, 4, and 5 swimmers.
If this were to happen, then Ryan Held, Baylor Nelson, Justin Ress, Henry McFadden, and Michael Andrew would not make the team. To note: Held has a faster percentage as compared to the ‘A” cut than Nelson and Ress has the advantage over McFadden.
Like in the women’s events, six new qualifiers is unlikely to happen but possible. In the three remaining events, there are at least two swimmers in each final who have not made the team, but the top seeds in each event are already on the team. Three of the finalists in the 200 IM are already qualified, four of the finalists in 50 Fr have (two are Held and Andrew) and three of the top four in the 800 have.
If all of the winners and runner-ups of tonight’s events are already on the team, then no swimmer listed above will be left off due to hitting the 26-athlete roster cap.
Possible Outcomes
| Scenario | Athletes Added | Athletes Left Off |
| Top 2 in each event is a new qualifier (6 new swimmers ) | 6 new swimmers: 3 into Priority 1, 3 into Priority 2 | Held, Nelson, Ress, McFadden, Andrew |
| 5 new swimmers, 1 already on team that is not Andrew | 5 new swimmers and Held | Nelson, Ress, McFadden, Andrew |
| 5 new swimmers and Andrew places top 2 in 50 | 5 new swimmers and Andrew | Held, Nelson, Ress, McFadden |
| 4 new swimmers, 2 already on team that are not Andrew | 4 new swimmers, Held and Nelson | Ress, McFadden, Andrew |
| 4 new swimmers, 1 already on team, and Andrew | 4 new swimmers, Andrew and Held | Nelson, Ress, McFadden |
| 3 new swimmers, 3 already on team that are not Andrew | 3 new swimmers, Held, Nelson and Ress | McFadden, Andrew |
| 3 new swimmers, 2 already on team, and Andrew | 4 new swimmers, Andrew Held and Nelson | Ress, McFadden |
| 2 new swimmers, 4 already on team that are not Andrew | 2 new swimmers, Held, Nelson, Ress and McFadden | Andrew |
| 2 new swimmers, 3 already on team, and Andrew | 2 new swimmers, Andrew, Held, Nelson and Ress | McFadden |
| 1 new swimmer, 5 already on team | 1 new swimmer, Andrew, Held, Nelson, Ress, McFadden and Andrew | None |
| No new swimmers | Held, Nelson, Ress, McFadden, Andrew | None |
If Andrew wins or is runner-up in the 50 free, he automatically qualifies and moves ahead of Held, Nelson, Ress, and McFadden, so his fate is very much in his own hands but there are paths to qualification without placing 1st or 2nd.
Held is only off the team if all six roster spots fall to new swimmers. If there is one double in the 200 IM and 800 Free then Held would be considered “on the team” in the scenarios above. If he qualifies in the 50, regardless of how the 200 IM and 800 play out, then he is guaranteed a roster spot but since he has the highest priority of Nelson et al. he would not displace them as Andrew does if he qualifies.
Here is a summary of the priorities, courtesy of the USA Swimming selection document:
World Championships – max of 26
- Priority #1. The first priority will include both (i) the four best finishing Available Swimmers based on finish order from the Finals the Qualifying Competition in each of the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyles, and (ii) the best finishing Available Swimmer based on finish order from the Finals of the Qualifying Competition in each of the Individual Olympic Events other than the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyle.
- Priority #2. The second priority will include the second best finishing Available Swimmer based on finish order from the Finals of the Qualifying Competition in each of the Individual Olympic Events other than the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyle.
- Priority #3. The third priority will include the fifth best finishing Available Swimmer based on finish order from the Finals of the Qualifying Competition in each of the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyles.
- Priority #4. The fourth priority will include the sixth best finishing Available Swimmer based on finish order from the Finals of the Qualifying Competition in each of the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyles.
- Priority #5. The fifth priority will include the best finishing Available Swimmer based on finish order from the Finals at the Qualifying Competition in the Individual Non-Olympic Events. No more than one Available Swimmer may be selected in each Individual Non-Olympic Event. If the Available Swimmer with the fastest time at the Finals in an Individual Non-Olympic Event declines the invitation to be Selected to the Team when that invitation is offered by USA Swimming and/or declines to swim in the Event for which he/she qualifies in the Championships, USA Swimming will not Select an Available Swimmer in that Individual Non-Olympic Event via Priority #5.
Remind me again- when does Mr Roper enter the room?
Seems ridiculous that theres a scenario where the fastest american in the 100 fr doesnt make the team…
If MA gets left off the team, Tina’s gonna go on a social media rampage
If you’re McFadden, would going to Junior worlds and getting in a lot more swims including individual be more beneficial?
With less mega stars like Phelps and Lochte doubling up in so many events, this kind of makes selection meets all the more exciting. Don’t quite know which relay only swimmers are going to make the team until the end of the meet. A swimmer like Kalisz, who would have been a near lock for a double getting food poisoning not only effects his events for worlds, but also who gets to make the team.
The dusting off the this protocol at OT 2021 and now at this meet eerily reminds me of the national conversation every 4 years when >75% of the country doesn’t seem to understand how the electoral college works.
Or that large city vote counting duration is logically like a 1500 compared to farmland 50
You think this is complicated– the 2018 Nationals was a qualifier for both Pan Pacs and Worlds, except that Pan Pacs was ALSO a Worlds qualifier… it was exactly as confusing as it sounds.
I guess Carson Foster is not going to be on the 800 free relay unless McFadden doesn’t get a spot..
Why would we leave one of our fastest swimmers off?
Because you have to swim relay only swimmers
The coaching staff has the discretion to create optimal relay lineups, regardless of whether or not a swimmer qualified for that relay. So, I’d expect to see Foster on the 4×200.
Then why are they taking 7 swimmers for the 800 free relay? 4 relay only swimmers.
Carson can most certainly be on that relay. Carson of all people is not a concern in my opinion. He might not be the fastest of the 4 in finals but he’s extremely consistent in the 4×200 free relays in yards, scm and lcm on the big stage. So the 4 relay only swimmers HAVE to swim either in prelims or finals because they don’t have any other events and if you are on the roster, you must swim. But Carson will be considered as a potential member of that relay.
Why does this entire process cry out for an “Ockham’s Razor” to be applied — and quickly!
If Ockham can knock Andrew off the team I’m rooting for him