2025 U.S. World Trials Previews: The 200 Free is Hobson’s World, We’re Just Living In It

2025 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

• Tuesday, June 3 – Saturday, June 7, 2025
• Indianapolis, Indiana
• Indiana University Natatorium
• LCM (50 meters)
• Meet Central
• World Championship Selection Criteria

MEN’S 200 FREESTYLE: BY THE NUMBERS

• World Record: 1:42.00, Paul Biedermann (GER) – 2009
• American Record: 1:42.96, Michael Phelps – 2008
• 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials Winner: Luke Hobson, 1:44.89
• World Aquatics ‘A’ Cut: 1:46.70

Hobson the Hot Favourite

In Paris, Luke Hobson became the first US man to win an individual World or Olympic medal in this event since Townley Haas in 2017. His time of 1:44.79 was only seven-hundredths off gold and marked the third summer in a row that the Texas swimmer had set a new best. He’s only been on an upwards trajectory since then, breaking Paul Biedermann’s short course world record before smashing his own record in yards at the NCAA championships in March.

Hobson’s time in that Paris final was the fastest time by a US man since Kieran Smith led off the fourth-place 4×200 free relay in Paris in 1:44.74. At Short Course Worlds later in the year he broke Biedermann’s record by three-quarters of a second, breaking 1:39 in a time of 1:38.61 when only four others had even broken 1:40.

In short – Hobson has had a fantastic last 12 months, and is the absolute favourite to take top spot at trials He also could be due a big drop in meters, one that would see him become a gold medal contender. He’s likely to challenge for top spot in Singapore, and just needs to ensure that he finishes in the top two here.

Hobson has often been close to his best at trials, and may look to throw down a marker this year. A 1:44-mid would put a message out to his rivals, and would certainly be more than enough for the win here.

His ability over the last 12 months to swim his absolute best in the finals only improves his chances. He may have only been 1:46.76 so far this season but should be one of the safest bets for the team.

Fighting for The Second Spot

Hobson’s biggest challengers come in the form of two of the three other men to have raced this event for the US individually since Tokyo: Kieran Smith and Chris Guiliano.

Guiliano has the hot hand of this duo. He set his best time of 1:45.38 at Olympic Trials last year, where he became the first man since Matt Biondi to make the US team in the 50,100 and 200 freestyles at the same championship. He is also now at Texas; the natural habitat of the US world-level 200 freestyler, and has gone from strength-to-strength in yards this year under Bob Bowman.

Chris Guiliano (photo: Jack Spitser)

He finished second behind Hobson at the NCAA championships in March in 1:29.42 and has already been 1:47.49 in long course so far this season.

That’s faster than he had been coming into Olympic trials last year, and stands him in good stead for a relay berth at a minimum. He set best times at all three freestyle distances at NCAAs, and hasn’t been particularly close to any of his bests in long course so far. The taper could be in full effect in Indianapolis.

One thing to note for Guiliano was his drop-off in Paris. This wasn’t confined to the 200 free – he was slower in the 50 and 100 than at trials too – but he added more than two seconds to miss semis in this event and was left off the finals relay for the 4×200. Of his three events, this would be the one to fall by the wayside if he’s off.

Kieran Smith was also not at his best in the event last year, but his ceiling is amongst the highest in the field. His best time stands at the aforementioned 1:44.74 he swam in 2021, and whilst he hasn’t broken 1:45 since he’s been a consistent 1:44 split on relays for the US men.

He hasn’t been slower than 1:45.6 in a trials final since 2019, but he also hasn’t been faster than that since back in 2022.

That probably won’t cut it for the top-two this time around, but his season-best is within a tenth of his pre-trials time from the last two years and it’s unlikely he’ll be much slower than in 2023 or 2024. Smith should still be an almost-lock for the relay, but an individual berth would need him back to his 2021 best.

Drew Kibler, the other man to have raced this individually at worlds, is yet to race in meters this year. His only meet so far this year came in yards at the US Open back in December where he was 1:32.78 in the 200, off his best of 1:30.23. At this point he’s an unlikely entrant, but has the experience and know how to at least be a finalist here if he does decide to do so.

A Good Year for the Mavericks?

Carson Foster is the unknown in this field, not for his ability but for the schedule he will choose to swim. He swam this event at Trials in 2022 and 2023, but it has always taken a back seat to his bread-and-butter IMs.

He may switch that up this year. He struggled somewhat in those events last year, missing the podium in both distances at a soft Worlds in Doha. Even in winning bronze in Paris in the 400 IM, he had been faster in July/August in each of the prior three seasons in the event.

His 200 freestyle however looked strong, especially so in Doha where he split 1:43.94 to help the US to bronze in the 4×200 free relay. Additionally, he is currently the fastest US man this year with his 1:46.46 from the Fort Lauderdale Pro Swim Series stop.

His best time of 1:45.57 comes from 2022, but he was 1:45.64 in 2023 and just swam his fastest-ever in-season time. A 1:45-low will probably be enough for the second spot here, and Foster is certainly capable of that.

While Foster is the biggest unknown, Shaine Casas is by far the biggest question mark. He may not swim the event either – it crosses over with the 200 back, the event in which he won individual World bronze in 2022 – but if he does you could probably feel justified slotting him into just about any position from second downwards.

Over the previous three seasons Casas had made something of a habit of putting his best performances in when the lights were not shining brightest. He seems to have put that mostly to bed this year, but did set his 200 free best of 1:46.49 in the ‘B’ final at Ft. Lauderdale. Overall though, it has been a much improved lead up for Casas this year.

Shaine Casas after making the Olympic team last year in the 200 IM (photo: Jack Spitser)

Over the season he’s taken 1.4 seconds off his LCM best already, dropping from 1:47.88 to that time of 1:46.49. He’s the second-fastest US man so far this season, and even without the ceiling of some of the other men we’ve mentioned here should still be targeting a relay berth.

Getting the Band Back Together?

The 200 free has seen a reasonable amount of turnover in the relay-only swimmers recently. While last year’s sixth place finisher Blake Pieroni, like Drew Kibler, is unlikely to enter this event having only raced the 50 free this year, there are multiple previous finalists who could make some noise.

Brooks Curry, Jake Mitchell and Aaron Shackell filled out the top-eight last year, and Baylor Nelson and Henry McFadden, Worlds team members in 2023, should also be in the field.

Brooks Curry missed out on the ‘A’ final and the qualification opportunities that come with it in the 100 free last year, but made his second Olympic team thanks to his fifth place finish in the 200. The 1:45.89 he swam to do so was his first and only time under 1:46, but a repeat would certainly be enough to make the top six. He’s been 1:46.74 this year, his fastest swim outside of either Trials or the US summer championships.

That’s nearly two full seconds faster than the 1:48.64 he went into Olympic Trials with, and makes him an intriguing prospect. Whilst his strength is probably still in the 100 free, he’s performed better in this event at the previous two trials.

Curry is now training at Cal, and should benefit from training with swimmers like Gabriel Jett, Destin Lasco and Lucas Henveaux. Having dropped nearly a second last year, he’s a probable to make the relay squad again this year, but if he really pops could put some pressure on for an individual spot. He’ll need a strong back half to do that though – he’s only come home under 55 seconds on one occasion previously.

Aaron Shackell hasn’t been quite as fast in the lead up to trials this year as in 2024, but that may work in his favor. He hasn’t been far off in 1:47.04, only seven tenths slower than his March 2024 best.

He made the final last year, finishing eighth, which came on the heels of making the Olympic team in the 400. He didn’t hit a best time or break 1:47 in doing so though, and has now had a full season back home training with Carmel. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him sneak back into the final in 2025.

Jake Mitchell, who made the team as a relay swimmer in 2023, sits 13th among US men so far with a 1:48.37. His best of 1:45.82 is from 2023 and he was in the mid-1:46s last year as he finished seventh.

However, both of those years he came in after a reasonably successful NCAAs. Mitchell did not score this year, adding multiple seconds in all his events. He certainly has the quality to rebound, but won’t be amongst the favourites for the top-six.

Nelson and McFadden are longer shots. Nelson, who’s just transferred to Texas, hasn’t been back under 1:47 since going 1:46.51 in summer 2023 and is only 1:49.66 so far this year. He is however now  training with Bob Bowman at Texas, and Texas generally means a strong 200 freestyle. He was 1:47.25 in the heats last year, within a second of his fifth-place time from 2023

McFadden is yet to swim the event in meters this year, but did make the ‘A’ final at NCAAs and was the sixth-fastest American there, breaking 1:31 in the heats. He was 1:47.40 at last year’s trials however, half a second slower than he’d been in-season. He’d need to reverse that this year to claim a spot on the plane. 

Coby Carrozza is another who could bounce back into the final. The Texas fifth-year made the team with a fifth-place finish in 2022 and has been 1:46.8 in each of the last three years, his best of 1:46.80 coming in 2023. He missed the final last year, but made it in 2022 and 2023.

New Faces in Familiar Places?

Rex Maurer has had a phenomenal sophomore season  under Bob Bowman after transferring to Texas, setting an American record in the 500 free and winning two events at NCAAs. He’s already set a PB in this event in 2025, breaking 1:47 for the first time just last week with a time of 1:46.79.

That may not be enough to final, but there could be further drops in store. Even after a disappointing NCAAs last year, he made the ‘B’ final where he went 1:47.19.

Gabe Jett is another who could springboard from a fantastic NCAA season so something concrete in LCM. He holds a best of 1:47.16 and was four-tenths off that at Olympic trials last year, but swam two best times in yards at the NCAA championships in March – if he can translate that to Indianapolis he’ll be in with a real shot of the final.

Gabriel Jett (photo: Jack Spitser)

Patrick Sammon was 1:46.72 in the heats last year, the second year in a row that he’d broken 1:47, but added in the semi-finals to miss out on the chance to fight for a relay berth. H’es just had a great season at ASU where he took six-tenths off his time in yards and flashed some top-end sprint speed. Yet again, he’s yet to swim this event in meters but should be in the hunt. 

Daniel Diehl also missed out on the final last year, but only after a swim-off for eighth place. His best of 1:46.83 came in the heats there, but has taken seven-tenths off his 200 yard free since. He’s been 1:49.28 this year.

2025 is probably a year or two too early for youngsters Maximus Williamson or Luka Mijatovic. Mijatovic especially has been on a tear in yards so far this year, taking the 15-16 NAG record in the 500 all the way down to 4:11.91 – an NCAA scoring time. He was 1:48.55 at last summer’s junior Pan Pacs, and although he will likely be quicker it’s a tough ask to drop down to the low 1:46s required for the team here.

Williamson holds the faster best time, 1:47.11 from 2023, but added significantly at last year’s trials in the freestyle events. He’s set some rapid times in the 200 in yards, and will enter the NCAA as the fastest returning 200 freestyler with his PB of 1:30.46. He may be one for the ‘B’ final.

Grant House is still yet to make a Worlds team, but has consistently been in the 1:46/1:47 range at trials in the last few years. He has a best of 1:46.73, and has been 1:47.73 so far this year. That could be on the edge of the final if the heats are on the slower side, or if he’s able to drop some time.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

Dark Horse – Ryan Erisman

There always seems to be at least one teenager that breaks through to make the final in the 200 free; Hobson in 2022, Henry McFadden and Baylor Nelson in 2023 and Aaron Shackell last year. This year’s breakout could be Ryan Erisman. The Cal commit has had a fantastic long course season so far, going 1:48.29 back in March in this event, but put people on notice at the Ft. Lauderdale Pro Swim Series. He finished second there in the 400 (3:48.57) and 1500 (15:20) freestyles, notably beating Leon Marchand in the former. He added time in the 200 after two draining days, but had taken 3.5 seconds off the 400 time he swam at the same meet he went 1:48 in the 200. He’s dropped down to 4:14 in the 500 in yards too this year, and whilst it may be one year too early for him all he needs is one good swim in the heats and he’ll be in with a shot at a relay berth.