2024 Olympics Previews: WR Watch in 400 Medley Relay – USA looks to Break Magical 3:50 Barrier

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
• Meet Central
• Full Schedule
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Olympic Swimming Entries as of July 12th

WOMEN’S 4×100 Medley Relay — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 3:50.40 – USA, R. Smith, L. King, K. Dahli, S. Manuel (2019)
• World Junior Record: 3:58.38 – CAN, J. Hannah, F. Knelson, P. Oleksiak, T. Ruck (2017)
• Olympic Record: 3:51.60 – AUS, K. McKeown, C. Hodges, E. McKeon, C. Campbell (2021)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: 3:51.60 – AUS, K. McKeown, C. Hodges, E. McKeon, C. Campbell

The finals of the women’s 4×100 Medley Relay in Tokyo saw the Australian team of Kaylee McKeown, Chelsea Hodges, Emma McKeon, and Cate Campbell climb to the top of the podium in a new Olympic Record time of 3:51.60. The time, a new Oceanic record as well, became the third fastest of all time and was nearly a second clear of Australia’s previous best from 2009.

The results were a bit of a shock, as the US had won the last two Olympic titles in the event, as well as every World Championships from 2011 to 2019, except for the disastrous 4th place finish in 2015 (the US’s Pan-Am team actually had a faster relay than the World Championships team). However, the Australians, while often relegated to minor medals at Worlds, have claimed the Olympic crown before winning back-to-back in 2004 and 2008.

With the US having claimed victory at Worlds in 2022 and 2023 and the Australians claiming victory a few months ago in Doha, albeit with the US and many others absent, it appears to be a two-team race. However, the Olympics brings out the best in all teams, and there are a few squads especially poised to make a magical run to the finals and one, in particular, could rise from the past and threaten for gold again.

Podium 10 3/4

I have to admit that I got really excited when counting on my fingers the number of times the United States had won the medley relay as upon the first count, I had nine, but alas, with due diligence and double checking, I got to ten, so forgive me with altering the sub-heading more than usual.

That said, the United States is by and far the powerhouse in this event historically and won the first four editions of the race from 1960 to 1972, until they ran into the East Germans and their systematic doping. After boycotting the 1980 Moscow Games, the US would go on to capture the next four until the Australians broke through in 2004 to win two in a row.

While this Olympic cycle is shorter than most, one should not read too much into past history, as in swimming, anything can change quickly. For instance, just 12 months ago in Fukuoka, the US’s medley relay line-up was a mess.

Fukuoka 2023, North America Day 4: What Does Team USA Do For The Women’s Medley Relay?

Women’s Medley Relay Line-Up Predications: USA’s Line-Up Unclear with No Easy Solution

After a messy prelims and up and down results in the individual 100s, the US’s projected roster was a major cause of concern. The SwimSwam Staff covering worlds, including myself, were all over the place with our thoughts. The idea to field the team of Katharine Berkoff, Kate Douglass, Regan Smith, and Abbey Weitzeil got a response of “I do not hate [it] either.” Another staffer advocated to use Berkoff, Lilly King, Smith, and Douglass while a third staffer said “Just put the names on a dartboard and throw to figure it out idk.”

The coaching staff opted to keep Regan Smith on the backstroke, use King despite finishing 4th in the 100 and behind compatriot Lydia Jacoby for the breaststroke, and bring in Gretchen Walsh on the fly despite being nearly a second slower than Torri Huske in the individual 100, and to keep Douglass on as the anchor.

12 months ago, that seemed a little out there based on their then form. Today, three of them are world record-holders in their respective 100s and each won their individual event at US Trials. Maybe the US coaching staff had the divining rods SwimSwam staff were missing (unlikely), or perhaps they had more knowledge (likely), but that quartet went on to win Fukuoka and now stand, dare we say, 3/4 of the way to an Olympic gold medal and perhaps a new World Record.

In looking at the quartet’s times, we can see that Walsh has made massive improvements, but she is not alone, as Smith, too, dropped time. Douglass, who dropped the individual 100 event recently, is still likely the relay anchor here unless something drastic were to happen in the 4×100 free relay or individual 100, based upon her win in Indianapolis. King’s time from worlds to her time in Indy at Trials may seem concerning at first, but that 1:04.93 is from a flying start, and her 1:05.43 is faster than anything she swam in Fukuoka.

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but with just their winning times from the Olympic Trials, the foursome are sitting just .03 off the World Record and if one were to subract the differential from relay starts, the US team could be hovering around the 3:49 low 3:48 high mark, coincidentally, the same time if all their personal bests were to be added up.

However, as a grain of salt or perhaps a splash of cold water, to reach such a mark, all four will need to be at their best, avoid any missteps/DQs, and hope that no other teams can pull a rabbit out of their cap and make some magic.

The Stroke of Requirement

photo credit Fabio Cetti

The squads that sandwiched the US’s silver in Tokyo and finished behind the US in 2019, 2022, and 2023 pose a threat to the US’s runaway win, but both lack the same depth in one stroke to keep up with the Americans: the breaststroke.

Both squads have top-end talent in the other three strokes but lack severely in the breaststroke, where their expected relay breaststrokers, Jenna Strauch and Sophie Angus, rank outside of the top 20 entrants in the individual event and have never broken 1:06 individually.

That said, however, relays are very different entities. In the individual 100 in Tokyo, Australia’s Chelsea Hodges was 9th in the semifinals with a time of 1:06.60 but posted the second-fastest split in the relay (1:05.57) and helped Australia win the gold. In that same relay, Canada relied on Sydney Pickrem, who had the slowest split (1:07.17) but such a lead after the first leg that they fell only to third after the breaststroke and had the firepower on the back half to remain in third. So if all the other legs are firing at full power both the Australians and Canadians may be able to minimize their losses.

courtesy of Fabio Cetti

Of the two nations, Australia seems much more likely to remain on the podium. Kaylee McKeown has only gotten faster since then, and while Masse has recently returned to form, its not on the same par. Emma McKeon looked a little off at the Australian trials but entered the Olympics as the 6th seed in the 100 fly, just one spot back of Maggie MacNeil. The big difference is that while Cate Campbell, who anchored the Australians in 2021, failed to make her 5th Olympic team, the Australians will likely be anchored by one of the fastest women on the earth, Mollie O’Callaghan, whereas the Canadians may use Penny Oleksiak, who was the fastest performer at her trials, but failed to swim under the individual OQT. In 2023 and 2024, as Oleksiak, the co-gold medalist from 2016, recovered from injuries, the Canadians relied upon Summer McIntosh and Taylor Ruck to anchor them.

Both nations’ cumulative times from their respective Olympic Trials are not far off from their entry times (their performances at the 2023 Worlds), and with relay starts, they likely could better their results from Fukuoka. However, despite such gains, even if their breaststrokers don’t put them in too much of a hole, one nation has risen so much in the past 12 months that they could contend for the gold medal.

The Relay of the Phoenix

It is not so much that China’s relay chances were in ashes, but after a gold medal at the 2015 Worlds, they have failed to medal at any Worlds or Olympics since.

World Aquatics Championships
Fukuoka (JPN)
14-30 JULY 2023

However, a perfect confluence of events has come together, and China’s medal chances hav risen drastically. The aforementioned struggles of the teams above, especially Canada’s breast and free woes, naturally would improve every team’s chances but also Chinia’s drastic improvement in the breast and free throw them into medal contention.

At the 2023 Worlds, China’s relay placed 4th in 3:54.57. If one were to add up their flat starts from their Nationals meet, they have a cumulative time of 3:52.21. Most of that improvement comes from Tang Qianting, who split 1:06.13 on the breast leg of the relay (1:07.15 in the individual event 20th). However, since then, she has gone on to drop massive amounts of time, setting a new national record of 1:05.27 in her gold medal-winning performance in Doha. Not content with that she further lowered her national record to 1:04.39 this past May, to become the 4th fastest performer ever.

Tang is not alone in rewriting the record books as Yang Junxuan, who was left off the medley relay in Fukuoka and had the slowest split (53.53) on China’s bronze medal-winning 4×100 free relay, posted a new PB and NR of 52.68 this past May. Her time is nearly a second faster than what Cheng Yujie anchored the Chinese Medley relay in (53.45) and with a relay start, Yang could be in the 52 low range.

However, one shouldn’t start stringing up the bunting yet, as, like every team on this list, China does have a weak leg. While Canada and Australia have been hampered in the breaststroke and the US hasn’t had a low 52 or 51 anchor as of late, China will start behind the field as their likely backstroke swimmers. Wan Letian has a personal best of 59.02. While that time was just recently swum by the 18-year-old and it could final in the individual event, starting close to two seconds behind the USA and Australia could be too big of a gap to overcome despite Tang’s massive improvement.

That said, however, Wan led off the relay last summer in 59.49 so with the improvement already this season, she has already made the relay faster.

The Relay of Secrets

World Aquatics Championships
Fukuoka (JPN)
14-30 JULY 2023

The Swedish women have long been led by Sarah Sjostrom, and this summer appears to be no exception, as she is set to compete in her fifth Olympic Games. With relays needing four swimmers, it has been difficult for smaller nations to string together enough swimmers to a. qualify and b. make the final, yet Sweden has been able to do so over the past decade.

The 2015 Worlds was an odd year, with the US failing to make the podium, but Sweden made the most of that occasion, swimming to a silver medal and a then European record of 3:55.24. Outside of Jennie Johansson, who has since retired, Sweden likely will bring back the remaining legs of that relay in an attempt to earn an Olympic medal; the question is in what order.

At the last three international long course meets that the Swedes have contested, they have used a different order of swimmers. Rotating around breaststroker Sophie Hansson, Michelle Coleman, and Louise Hansson have traded the backstroke duties, with Coleman swimming 59.75 in Tokyo and Hanssson posting a 59.93 just this year in Doha.

In looking at the Entries Lists, L. Hansson is entered in the 100 back, and with Coleman entered as the 11th seed in the 100 free, it appears as if those spots are set, leaving the butterfly leg up to …. Sjostrom.

Despite dropping the individual event and losing the world record, Sjostrom can still compete with the best of the world in the event. She swam the fly leg in Doha, splitting 56.11 (the fastest in the field), and helped Sweden to a silver medal as they finished in 3:56.35, just .37 behind Australia’s winning time.

However, with some iterations of the relay, Doha may have just been a test to see if Sjostrom could/would take on the fly leg of the relay, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see if the Swedish roster order be determined based on how Hansson swims her 100s back and fly and how Sjostrom and Coleman do in the 100 free.

“The Flaw in the Plan”

(If anyone else can think of a sub-heading that fits the category I chose for myself and is better than this one, then please let me know in the comments. Update: Thanks PK Doesn’t Like His Long Name, the new subheading fits better than the Leaky Relay)

There are four nations likely competing for the last three spots in the final of this event, and each has varying holes in their line-ups that could sink their chances or rather each have one issue that prevents them from automatically achieving their goals.

• Japan
  • Of the group, Japan placed highest at the 2023 Worlds, finishing in 6th. Mizuki Hirai swam a speedy 56.91 to win the 100 fly at Japan’s Trials and will be an improvement upon the 57.67 fly leg from Ai Soma. However, Japan lacks the backstroke necessary to compete for the medals as Rio Shirai was 1:00.27 at Trials, failing to make the individual qualifying time and will be a relay-only swimmer.
• Netherlands
  • The Dutch placed 7th in Fukuoka solely thanks to the heroics of Marrit Steenbergen, who closed the relay in 51.96, just .01 slower than MOC. Tes Schouten was 1:06.91 on the relay but recently won silver in Doha in 1:05.82 and should help the relay improve, but with no definitive strength in the backstroke, both Kira Toussaint and Maaike de Waard are in the 59 high range, the Dutch may be in danger of falling too far behind.
• France
  • Host nation France finished in 8th at the Fukuoka Worlds but has been making great improvements since then, and in front of a home crowd, seems to be poised to make their first-ever Olympic final in the event. Emma Terebo‘s new National Record in the 100 back and Beryl Gastaldello‘s improvement in the 100 free have the French close to two seconds faster than their Fukuoka performance. Like the nations above, France has a weakness, as Charlotte Bonnett has been needing to fill in on the breaststroke, and despite setting a new national record last year, Bonnet was just 1:07.48 at their trials.
• . Great Britain
  • The Brits finished 9th in Fukuoka and were the last team under 3:59, let alone 4:00 so it appears as if they make up the last team of the four likely prospects. Angharad Evans‘s emergence as a sprint breaststroke threat with her 1:05.54 improves Team GB’s chances of making the final, but with Kathleen Dawson just returning from injury and Keanna MacInnes just barely qualifying for the 100 fly, Team GB might not have the firepower to get into the final.

The Verdict

The US seems to be the front-runner, and having a squad made up of three World Record holders, they seem to be 3/4 of the way there. However, results are dictated by performances on paper but in the pool, so the team must not get ahead of themselves and still swim to the best of their abilities. The fight for silver will be intense and very close. China has the faster cumulative time of their results from Trials, but Australia has the faster time if the PBs are summed. We are giving the edge to Australia, for two reasons. The first is that McKeown, McKeon, and O’Callaghan all hit season best at other points in the season, so they were not quite at their best at trials (which can also be seen as a negative) but means they have room to improve, whereas three-quarters of the Chinese relay hit PBs at their trials and will need to do better than they ever have to improve. The second reason is a little more subjective in nature, but the experience of the Australians and MOC’s ability to consistently split under 52 gives the edge to the Aussies in the closing meters.

The fight for the last three spots is a toss-up, as it really comes down to a gamble by the coaches. While we are previewing the finals of the event, we are really looking at who the team uses in the prelims and how they perform. While we can expect the US and Australia to be able to use four new swimmers, these four nations may not be able to make such a gamble.

For reference, the initial prelims roster for the US of Berkoff, Weber, Smith, and Huske has an aggregate trial time of 3:52.56 (Huske on Fly and Walsh on free is .1 slower) and could easily themselves contend for the gold medal. Their more likely prelims roster of Berkoff, Weber, Huske, and Manuel (or whoever is fastest in the 4×100 free) have a time of 3:52.78.

Between Japan, France, the Netherlands, and Great Britain, we have the French team missing out, but it easily could be any of the others. Their improvement as of late is very noticeable, but Bonnet’s breaststroke time from their Trials is concerning. While Gastaldello has improved, she doesn’t have the firepower to compete with the likes of Steenbergen and Anna Hopkin on the anchor leg.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

Dark Horse: Poland – Poland finished 10th in the prelims in 2023 with a national record of 4:00.23 and improved their placing to 8th in 2024 (7th in finals). Just last month, however, they crushed the competition at the European Championships, setting a new record of 3:58.71, winning by nearly two full seconds. Dominka Sztandera, who is entered in the 100 breast with a 1:06.42, made up most of the difference as her split from Euros was nearly a second faster than her Fukuoka time.