2024 Olympic Previews: Will The Aussie Women Go Back-To-Back In The 100 Free?

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
• Meet Central
• Full Schedule
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BY THE NUMBERS — WOMEN’S 100 FREESTYLE

• World Record: 51.71 — Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden (2017)
• World Junior Record: 52.70 — Penny Oleksiak, Canada (2016)
• Olympic Record: 51.96 — Emma McKeon, Australia
• 2020 Olympic Champion: Emma McKeon, Australia — 51.96

In the leadup to the Paris Olympic Games, the women’s 100 freestyle picture got progressively more interesting. As reigning gold medalist and Olympic record holder Emma McKeon failed to qualify for the event individually this year (so did reigning bronze medalist Cate Campbell), this event will be filled with women fighting to earn their first Olympic title in this event. And the race is bound to be a close one, with the top five women being separated by just 26 one-hundredths of a second.

The Top Seeds

Although Australia’s Mollie O’Callaghan is the 2022 and 2023 world champion in the 100 free, she’s not actually the top seed. That title belongs to Siobhan Haughey, who posted a time of 52.02 last fall — making her the third-fastest swimmer ever in the event and the fastest since McKeon went 51.96 at the Tokyo Olympics.

Siobhan Haughey (photo: Jack Spitser)

The 26-year-old Haughey has constantly been a bridesmaid at past international meets, especially to Australians. She finished second to Aussies twice at the Tokyo Olympics — getting beat by McKeon in the 100 free and Titmus in the 200 free. In addition, she also took silver to O’Callaghan in the 100 free at the 2023 Worlds and to the Netherlands’ Marrit Steenbergen at the 2024 Worlds. She’s too far behind the top seeds in the 200 free to have a realistic shot at winning, so the 100 free will likely be her only chance at international gold this year.

The biggest question is whether Haughey has it in her to go her best time in a major final. She went 52.02 at a World Cup stop last fall, but “only” swam a 52.56 at Worlds that same year (and then went that same time at 2024 Worlds). Her second-fastest swim ever was done in the Tokyo final when she went 52.27, so she’s proven she can be at her best under pressure before. The good thing is that she seems to be in decent shape to start off the year, having broken the 53-second barrier four times in 2024.

Then there’s O’Callaghan, who based on past races, is the favorite to win Olympic gold in Paris. She won the world title by a considerable margin and has not lost the 100 free race at a major final (Worlds, Aussie trials, Commonwealth Games) since 2021. In addition to consistency, she also has the speed to back herself up — her time of 52.08 from leading off Australia’s 4×100 free relay makes her the seventh-fastest performer of all-time. If she pulls off another win in Paris, it will speak to her remarkable dominance in the 100 free this Olympic cycle and make her the second consecutive Australian to win gold in this event.

Among the big names, O’Callaghan has looked the best this year — her time of 52.27 from this April is the fastest of 2024. If she wins, she’ll probably do it from behind. At the 2023 World Championships, she was in seventh place at the turn but used her back half to win. The same thing happened in 2022, where she went from sixth to first on the final 50. Swimmers ahead of her will have to be on the lookout during their race, knowing how lethal her back half is.

Other Medal Contenders

Aside from the 2024 Worlds, Shayna Jack hasn’t gotten a chance to swim the 100 free individually at Worlds or the Olympics. But after her 52.28 relay leadoff at the 2023 Worlds, many wanted to see what she was capable of against a full-strength field. This year, Jack got past the competitive Australian domestic field in the 100 free and qualified to swim it in Paris individually, and now she’s heading into the meet as the fifth overall seed.

Jack has gotten it done on the biggest stage before — she took silver in the 50 free at the 2023 Worlds. But the one concern with her was that when she was heavily favored to win the 100 free at the 2024 Worlds, she “only” took bronze, being off her best time with a 52.83. One could argue that she wasn’t tapered, as she did go 52.62 (in prelims) at Aussie Trials, but the result doesn’t help her resume.

Marrit Steenbergen by Giorgio Scala

The woman who beat Jack at the 2024 Worlds was Steenbergen, who won with a personal best of 52.26 and heads into Paris as the fourth seed. She’s been one of the biggest risers this past Olympic cycle, improving upon her pre-Tokyo best time of 53.97. Last year, she won her first major international individual medal by taking bronze in the 100 free at the 2023 Worlds with a time of 52.71. Now, she has a chance at getting her first Olympic medal.

If there’s one thing to know about Steenbergen, it’s that she’s incredibly consistent. At Worlds last year, she raced 2,700 meters across multiple events and somehow never faltered, producing multiple 52-low and 51-high 100 free relay splits. So although she’s not a top seed, it feels safe to bet on her to medal.

The wild card of this meet is Swedish world record holder Sarah Sjostrom. She’s never won Worlds or Olympic gold in this event, and wasn’t even planning on swimming it in Paris initially. However, she’s entered the event, meaning that her racing the 100 free isn’t out of the question. Last year at Worlds, Sjostrom did put up a relay leadoff time of 52.24 (which would have won individual silver) and went on to break the 50 free world record, so we know she’s capable of going fast right now. She’s been as quick as 52.57 this year, indicating that she’s already in strong form.

In Paris, Sjostrom will be the heavy favorite to win the 50 free. But a standout performance in the 100 free from her could happen as well.

Outside Shots

Torri Huske (photo: Jack Spitser)

The final two swimmers with a sub-54 entry time are China’s Yang Junxuan and the United States’ Torri Huske. These two swimmers have a long road toward getting onto the podium, but could sneak in for a medal if the field ends up being relatively slow.

Let’s start off with Yang, who has an entry time of 52.68. That mark was set at Chinese Nationals this April, and was her first time ever getting under the 53-second barrier. However, she’s seen the biggest stage before too, finishing 8th at the 2023 World Championships (54.09) while also qualifying for the final at the 2022 Worlds and the Tokyo Olympics — though she scratched out of finals at both meets. In fact, her best time prior to this year was 53.02 from the Tokyo Olympics.

Yang’s limited history in international finals, as well as China’s history of swimming fastest on home soil, make us skeptical that she can medal. But she’s a favorite to be in the final.

Then there’s Huske, who was the 2022 World Championship bronze medalist. Her time of 52.92 was the slowest medal-winning time at Worlds since 2013, and still remains her best time. Since then, she hadn’t broken 53 seconds until last month’s Olympic Trials, where she went 52.93. She’s never missed an international final in her life so bet on her to make this one, but a medal from her would require either a slow field or a significant drop in time.

Other Potential Finalists

We’ve already listed the seven top seeds, and all of them seem like favorites to make it back comfortably. The eighth spot in the final, however, will be a toss-up.

The United States’ Gretchen Walsh wasn’t even supposed to race this event in Paris, but was a last-minute entry after her American teammate Kate Douglass (who would have entered this meet as the sixth seed) dropped out. With a time of 53.13, Walsh is the ninth seed, and can final if she plays her cards right.

Walsh is the world record holder in the 100 fly and is qualified to swim the 50 free in Paris as well. However, her 100 free has seemed to lag behind her 100 fly and 50 free in long course, as she has yet to break 53 seconds in the event. This is ironic because the 100 free was the event where Walsh had her first international breakout, winning gold at the 2019 World Junior Championships. She won’t have a ton of expectations on her here, but her speed in other events may indicate some untapped potential.

The only qualified returning finalist from Tokyo that we haven’t talked about is Great Britain’s Anna Hopkin, who finished seventh in 2021 with a time of 52.83. In the prelims of that meet, she broke the British record with a time of 52.75. Since Tokyo however, Hopkin has been up and down. She missed the final at the 2022 Worlds and didn’t race the event individually at the 2023 Worlds, but then she went 53.09 at the 2024 Worlds — posting her fastest time since Tokyo. Now, she heads into Paris as the eighth overall seed in a position to make her second consecutive Olympic final.

China’s Wu Qingfeng is the 1oth seed with a time of 53.25. She’s never made a Worlds or Olympic final before, with her only major individual racing experience in this event being a swim-off loss to the United States’ Erika Connolly for a semi-final spot in Tokyo. However, she improved big time this year, dropping 0.62 seconds off her best at Chinese Nationals. Now, she’s got a shot to make her first major international final in the 100 free.

Finally, we’ve got the Swedish veteran Michelle Coleman, who is the 11th seed at 53.41. She finished seventh at the 2023 Worlds and 15th in Tokyo, posting her fastest time since 2019 at the former meet. As someone who has been on the international stage for many years now, she’ll also be in the running to make it back.

SwimSwam’s Picks

The pick for gold was easy — we felt that O’Callaghan has displayed consistent speed when it mattered the most, and now she just has to pull it off one last time this Olympic cycle. She’s the 2022 and 2023 World champ as well as the fastest woman in the world this year (she’s gone sub-52.4 twice this year, which no one else has done), so choosing her to win felt like a safe bet.

In second we have Sjostrom. The 100 free isn’t her best event right now, but her showing at the 2023 Worlds indicated her potential at this stage of her career. She has a ton of momentum after her international showing last year, and we think she can ride it into Paris. In third, we have Haughey, because it feels wrong to leave the third-fastest woman of all-time off the podium, but Steenbergen could certainly pull off the upset.

Dark Horse: Maggie MacNeil, Canada – MacNeil is a somewhat surprising entrant in the 100 free for Canada after Penny Oleksiak failed to achieve OQT. MacNeil’s main focus, the 100 fly, will be over once the 100 free rolls around, which could free her up to swim with nothing to lose and potentially shake things up. She won the 2023 Pan Am title in a PB of 53.64, and if she’s on career-best form and can get into the 53-lows, a spot in the final isn’t out of the question.