2023 World Champs Preview: Wild Card-Riddled Men’s 200 Breaststroke

2023 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS

• July 23 – 30, 2023 (pool swimming)
• Fukuoka, Japan
• Marine Messe Fukuoka
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
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• SwimSwam Preview Index

BY THE NUMBERS — MEN’S 200 BREASTSTROKE

• World Record: Zac Stubblety-Cook, Australia – 2:05.95 (2022)
• World Junior Record: Dong Zhihao, China – 2:08.83 (2023) *unratified
• Championship Record: Anton Chupkov, Russia – 2:06.12 (2019)
• 2022 World Champion: Zac Stubblety-Cook, Australia – 2:07.07

The men’s 200m breaststroke is one event where the top-ranked man on the planet, France’s Leon Marchand, will most likely not be in the field, despite appearing on the initial World Championships entries.

Although the 21-year-old Arizona State Sun Devil owns the world’s sole sub-2:07 time of 2:06.59, he’s said in the past that he will not be taking on the race in Fukuoka.

That leaves the rest of the contenders to duke it out in one of the most wild card-riddled events of the championships.

The Reigning Champ

On paper, the men’s 200m breaststroke event belongs to reigning World Record holder Zac Stubblety-Cook of Australia.

Zac Stubblety-Cook (photo: Jack Spitser)

The 24-year-old owns the fastest time in history with the 2:05.95 he produced last year at the Australian National Championships.

Leading up to that performance, ‘ZSC’ put up times to the tune of 2:06.28, 2:07.00 and 2:07.36 before ultimately winning gold at the 2020 Olympic Games in a result of 2:06.38.

ZSC won the 2022 World Championships title in a time of 2:07.07, well off his WR but enough to clock the sole swim of the field under 2:08.

Since his WR-setting performance, however, ZSC has not quite been up to the level of other worldly-ness which put his name onto the record books.

Yes, he rocked a time of 0f 2:07.62 at this year’s Sydney Open, followed by a gold medal-worthy mark of 2:07.86 to qualify for Fukuoka. The problem is that the rest of the world is also ripping times of the same caliber, meaning ZSC’s title defense is anything but locked in.

The Redemption Seeker

At one time Japan’s Ippei Watanabe held the World Record in this 2breast event, owning a lifetime best of 2:06.67 notched at the 2017 Kosuke Kitajima Cup.

The now-26-year-old saw that record first get matched by Australia’s Matt Wilson and then get overtaken by Russia’s Anton Chupkov, both at the 2019 World Championships. There in Gwangju, Korea, Watanabe ultimately claimed bronze in a near-PB of 2:06.73.

However, things progressively got ultra-competitive domestically in Japan, with Shoma Sato, Ryuya Mura and Yu Hanaguruma making noise and giving Watanabe serious hurdles to overcome.

Watanabe came up short when it came to qualifying for the 2020 Olympic Games in his home country, relegated to 3rd place at that year’s Trials behind Sato and Mura despite having been ranked #3 in the world that season.

After painfully watching the Tokyo Games from the sideline, Watanabe took some time away from the pool to reflect, rejuvenate and reactivate his love of the sport.

He kicked off 2023 with a solid performance of 2:08.51 at February’s Kirara Cup and brought that down to a spicy 2:07.73 at the Japan Trials to qualify for Fukuoka.

Proving that performance wasn’t a return-the-pool fluke, Watanabe followed up with another sub-2:08 outing of 2:07.55 last month at the Tokyo Swimming Championships as a comeback statement. He is fired up and on the right trajectory to land on the podium.

Chinese Challenger

The Chinese Spring Championships took place in March and Qin Haiyang wasted no time throwing his hat into the World Championships ring in this 200m breaststroke.

The 23-year-old punched a winning time of 2:07.60, his fastest time in nearly 6 years.

Two months later, Qin was on the world rankings-busting prowl again, throwing down a mark of 2:07.55 at May’s Chinese Nationals as further evidence he’s back to his prime. That time fell just .20 outside of his best-ever and tied him with Watanabe as the 3rd-quickest performer in the world this season.

Haiyang Qin 2017 World Championships Budapest, Hungary (photo: Mike Lewis)

Historically, the nation of China puts up many of its swiftest results on domestic soil, so the type of performance Qin can produce on the world stage outside of his borders is somewhat unpredictable. He has multiple Short Course World Championships medals under his belt but faltered last year in Budapest, hitting just 2:13.55 to place 22nd overall.

Nevertheless, with Marchand not competing and the #2 swimmer in the world, Kirill Prigoda of Russia unable to compete at the World Championships, Qin and Watanabe enter Fukuoka as the top-ranked athletes at the moment.

American Achiever

Speaking of the world rankings, American Matt Fallon is the 5th-fastest swimmer in the world this season, courtesy of the 2:07.71 produced at this year’s U.S. Nationals.

Fallon sliced .20 off of his previous lifetime best of 2:07.91 from the same meet a year earlier en route to becoming the United States’ 6th-fastest performer of all time.

Despite his world-class performance, the University of Pennsylvania swimmer lacks senior international experience, which may work against him. There are no Junior Pan Pacs and just one World Juniors, from 2019, on Fallon’s resume.

He swam well in prelims and semi-finals at the 2021 US Olympic Trials, but struggled in the final. Since then, he missed the 2022 US Trials because of final exams and the 2023 NCAA Championships with an injury.

That means relatively-limited experience with the nerves and pressure a massive international affair can bring. His back-half style, will always make competitors nervous, but against this field, he’ll need to be closer to have a chance at the podium.

Pair that inexperience with the fact that Kevin Cordes’ silver in 2015 is the only medal earned by an American in the men’s 200m breaststroke in the past decade at a World Championships. A rookie bringing home some hardware with this type of stat behind you is a big ask for someone making his World Championships debut.

Lurking Contenders

• Sweden’s Erik Persson won a surprise silver at last year’s World Championships, and has three 2:07s on his resume. He hasn’t been at that level this year – his 2023 best is just 2:09.35 – but last year he was measured pre-World Championships as well. His time from last year’s Worlds shouldn’t get him on the podium, but there’s often a bit of softness in this event in the World Championship final, so if he performs again, the possibility remains for him to climb the steps.
• Two-time Olympic silver medalist Arno Kamminga of the Netherlands can’t be counted in this event, one of which he owns his nation’s record with a PB of 2:06.85 from December 2020. Kamminga spent much of 2022 dealing with illnesses, with the 27-year-old possessing a season-best of just 2:09.34 from April. We know what the Dutchman is capable of, it’s just a question as to whether he’ll be in form to be able to do it.
• Shoma Sato of Japan dealt with a hernia while competing at the Olympic Games, therefore, we didn’t get to see him unleash another swim to the tune of his personal best of 2:06.40. He missed the Japanese team for last year’s World Championships so the 22-year-old is looking to make his mark this time around on his home turf. Right now he ranks 7th in the world with a season-best of 2:08.21.
• Surprise Olympic bronze medalist Matti Mattsson of Finland is also in the field, although the 29-year-old has been awfully quiet as of late. He placed 8th last year in Budapest in a mark of 2:09.65, well off the 2:07.13 national record-setting result he logged in Tokyo a year earlier. He hasn’t cracked the 2:09 barrier yet this season, so his status as a medal contender is a perilous prospect.
• 29-year-old Erik Persson of Sweden snagged silver in this event behind ZSC at last year’s World Championships. He notched a time of 2:08.38 to tie Japan’s Yu Hanaguruma as the runner-up. This time around, Hanaguruma missed out on the Japanese squad while Persson’s season-best checks in at just 2:09.35. He does own a PB of 2:07.66 from two years ago which, if he can muster that type of performance, should put him in the final conversation.

SWIMSWAM’S TOP 8 PICKS

Dark Horse: Josh Matheny (USA) – American Josh Matheny holds a season-best of 2:08.32 from U.S Nationals, a time which hacked over a second off his previous career-quickest of 2:09.34. The 20-year-old Indiana swimmer has only been sub-2:10 on 3 occasions, including when he notched 2:09.40 en route to becoming the 2019 World Junior champion. He’s proven potential but will need to have the swim of his life to compete against the men listed above who have been 2 and 3 seconds faster.