2021 NCAA Women’s Championships: Day 3 Seed Vs. Actual Analysis

2021 NCAA WOMEN’S SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

• When: Wednesday, March 17 – Saturday, March 20, 2021
• Where: Greensboro Aquatic Center / Greensboro, NC (Eastern Time Zone)
• Prelims 10 AM / Finals 6 PM (Local Time)
• Short course yards (SCY) format
• Defending champion: Stanford (3x) – 2019 results
• Streaming: ESPN3
• Championship Central
• Psych Sheets
• Live Results – Swimming
• Live Results – Diving
• Day 3 Finals Recap

No ACC team (men or women) has ever finished higher than 3rd at the NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships.

TEAM SCORES (AFTER 200 MEDLEY RELAY/Day 3)

1. Virginia 344
2. NC State 241
3. Texas 224
4. California 210
5. Ohio State 177.5
6. Alabama 155
7. Stanford 140
8. Michigan 127.5
9. Georgia 115
10. Kentucky/UNC 114
11. (tie)
12. Tennessee 90
13. Louisville 81
14. Missouri 79
15. Florida 74.5
16. Texas A&M/Northwestern 64
17. (tie)
18. Indiana 63
19. USC/Miami 42
20. (tie)
21. Minnesota 40
22. Wisconsin 39
23. Virginia Tech 28
24. Nebraska 22
25. Arkansas 21
26. Arizona 17.5
27. Georgia Tech 16
28. Purdue 13
29. LSU 9
30. Houston 6
31. San Diego State 6
32. Notre Dame/Duke 4
33. (tie)
34. Akron 3

The Virginia Cavaliers are almost certainly going to break that streak on Saturday (they pretty much just have to score about 20 of the 130 points they’re seeded to score on Saturday to lock up the meet), but in a historic moment from the conference, we could see an ACC 1-2 finish thanks to NC State catching fire.

There were lots of questions bandied about when the Wolfpack didn’t score in the meet opening 800 free relay. Down one of their best sprinters Heather MacCausland, the Wolfpack coaching staff took a gamble, trying to squeeze out any points they could from that opening relay, and then going all-in on the other four.

So far, that strategy appears to be paying off, as they’ve swept the medley relays and are in control of 2nd place heading into the final day of competition.

More after the jump

Day 3 Actuals vs. Seed

Days 1, 2 & 3 Actuals + Day 4 Psychs

Analysis

Digging into the data, the first thing that jumps out is how much that relay DQ hurt the Cal women: if things went exactly to seed on Saturday (they won’t), the difference between Cal and NC State would be 32 points. That’s exactly the equivalent of a 3rd-place relay finish, which is exactly where Cal finished in the 400 medley relay before being disqualified for an early start.

Cal will then face an uphill battle to finish in the top 3, with Texas having Paola Pineda diving well and competing on the platform on Saturday. That’s the Longhorns’ best chance at catching NC State for 2nd place, which is still a very real possibility (unless NC State stays as hot as they were on Friday).

If Cal does finish 4th, that will be the first time since 2008 where they finish outside of the top 3, an 11-straight championship streak. They look like they’ll still keep their top 5 streak (which dates back to 2006) alive either way.

Louisville, which had the best performance vs. seed on day 2, wasn’t as good on Friday, losing a little ground versus their projections. This time it was UNC that made a big move. They now sit in 12th overall.

Their jump versus seed is due in large part to the fact that they were missing many of their top swimmers at the ACC Championships because of COVID-19 protocols, so they were underseeded in many places, especially relays.

Thanks to a lift from their divers, the Tar heels have a chance at climbing into the top 10 on the final day of competition.

The Tar Heels’ best-ever finish at the NCAA Championships was 3rd place at the inaugural women’s championship in 1982. More recently, they’ve finished 12th in 2013, and their most recent top-10 finish came in 2001 when they placed 9th.