2021 NCAA Women’s Championships: Day 3 Seed Vs. Actual Analysis

2021 NCAA WOMEN’S SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

No ACC team (men or women) has ever finished higher than 3rd at the NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships.

TEAM SCORES (AFTER 200 MEDLEY RELAY/Day 3)

  1. Virginia 344
  2. NC State 241
  3. Texas 224
  4. California 210
  5. Ohio State 177.5
  6. Alabama 155
  7. Stanford 140
  8. Michigan 127.5
  9. Georgia 115
  10. Kentucky/UNC 114
  11. (tie)
  12. Tennessee 90
  13. Louisville 81
  14. Missouri 79
  15. Florida 74.5
  16. Texas A&M/Northwestern 64
  17. (tie)
  18. Indiana 63
  19. USC/Miami 42
  20. (tie)
  21. Minnesota 40
  22. Wisconsin 39
  23. Virginia Tech 28
  24. Nebraska 22
  25. Arkansas 21
  26. Arizona 17.5
  27. Georgia Tech 16
  28. Purdue 13
  29. LSU 9
  30. Houston 6
  31. San Diego State 6
  32. Notre Dame/Duke 4
  33. (tie)
  34. Akron 3

The Virginia Cavaliers are almost certainly going to break that streak on Saturday (they pretty much just have to score about 20 of the 130 points they’re seeded to score on Saturday to lock up the meet), but in a historic moment from the conference, we could see an ACC 1-2 finish thanks to NC State catching fire.

There were lots of questions bandied about when the Wolfpack didn’t score in the meet opening 800 free relay. Down one of their best sprinters Heather MacCausland, the Wolfpack coaching staff took a gamble, trying to squeeze out any points they could from that opening relay, and then going all-in on the other four.

So far, that strategy appears to be paying off, as they’ve swept the medley relays and are in control of 2nd place heading into the final day of competition.

More after the jump

Day 3 Actuals vs. Seed

School Day 3 Swim Seed Day 3 Swim Actual Day 3 Swim Actual vs. Seed
Virginia 147.5 160 12.5
NC State 119 117 -2
Texas 124.5 91 -33.5
California 117 96 -21
Ohio St 63 73 10
Alabama 77 65 -12
Stanford 57 56 -1
Michigan 40 49.5 9.5
Georgia 38 30 -8
Kentucky 73.5 49 -24.5
UNC 17 36 19
Louisville 27.5 19 -8.5
Tennessee 34 29 -5
Missouri 34 24 -10
Florida 12 17 5
Texas A&M 18 22 4
Northwestern 16 36 20
Indiana 5 25 20
Southern Cali 19 21 2
Miami 0 0 0
Minnesota 0 0 0
Wisconsin 11 16 5
Virginia Tech 16 17 1
Nebraska 7 8 1
Arkansas 2 0 -2
Arizona 1 2.5 1.5
Georgia Tech 0 0 0
Purdue 0 0 0
LSU 0 0 0
Houston 0 5 5
San Diego St 3 6 3
Duke 0 2 2
Notre Dame 0 3 3
Akron 0 0 0
U.S. Navy 0 0 0
UCLA 6 0 -6
Utah 0 0 0

 

Days 1, 2 & 3 Actuals + Day 4 Psychs

school finals123 psych4 diving Actual (1,2,3) + Seed (4) Seed vs. Psych So Far
Virginia 344 130.5 0 474.5 -1
NC State 241 103 0 344 -31
Texas 196 97 28 321 -41.5
California 210 102 0 312 -43
Alabama 155 107 0 262 -30.5
Georgia 115 106 0 221 -30
Michigan 127.5 88 0 215.5 18.5
Ohio St 173 30 4 207 32
Kentucky 108 65 6 179 -9.5
Stanford 140 19 0 159 -10
Tennessee 80 58 0 138 -7
UNC 80 3 34 117 57
Missouri 79 26 0 105 -13
Florida 63.5 20.5 11 95 -14.5
Louisville 81 13 0 94 39.5
Texas A&M 36 19 28 83 7
Northwestern 64 15 0 79 20
Southern Cali 39 30 3 72 0
Indiana 37 4 26 67 18
Wisconsin 39 14 0 53 22
Miami 0 0 42 42 0
Minnesota 0 0 40 40 0
Virginia Tech 28 11 0 39 1
Arkansas 0 13 21 34 -11
Nebraska 11 0 11 22 4
Arizona 2.5 0 15 17.5 1.5
Georgia Tech 0 0 16 16 0
Purdue 0 0 13 13 0
LSU 0 0 9 9 0
U.S. Navy 0 9 0 9 0
Houston 6 0 0 6 6
San Diego St 6 0 0 6 3
Duke 2 0 2 4 2
Notre Dame 3 0 0 3 3
Akron 3 0 0 3 3
Utah 0 2 0 2 0
Notrde Dame 0 0 1 1 0
UCLA 0 0 0 0 -6

Analysis

Digging into the data, the first thing that jumps out is how much that relay DQ hurt the Cal women: if things went exactly to seed on Saturday (they won’t), the difference between Cal and NC State would be 32 points. That’s exactly the equivalent of a 3rd-place relay finish, which is exactly where Cal finished in the 400 medley relay before being disqualified for an early start.

Cal will then face an uphill battle to finish in the top 3, with Texas having Paola Pineda diving well and competing on the platform on Saturday. That’s the Longhorns’ best chance at catching NC State for 2nd place, which is still a very real possibility (unless NC State stays as hot as they were on Friday).

If Cal does finish 4th, that will be the first time since 2008 where they finish outside of the top 3, an 11-straight championship streak. They look like they’ll still keep their top 5 streak (which dates back to 2006) alive either way.

Louisville, which had the best performance vs. seed on day 2, wasn’t as good on Friday, losing a little ground versus their projections. This time it was UNC that made a big move. They now sit in 12th overall.

Their jump versus seed is due in large part to the fact that they were missing many of their top swimmers at the ACC Championships because of COVID-19 protocols, so they were underseeded in many places, especially relays.

Thanks to a lift from their divers, the Tar heels have a chance at climbing into the top 10 on the final day of competition.

The Tar Heels’ best-ever finish at the NCAA Championships was 3rd place at the inaugural women’s championship in 1982. More recently, they’ve finished 12th in 2013, and their most recent top-10 finish came in 2001 when they placed 9th.

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JimSwim22
2 months ago

What’s the worst Stanford finish ever?

Bevo
2 months ago

Great analysis. Watching the meet from a relay timed final perspective, no fans, masks and testing, weather delays, it’s been an incredible meet to view. Every single staff should be proud of how they got here. The meet has been great. I’d be interested to see which team is doing the most scoring with the fewest people in the meet.

Swimmy
Reply to  Bevo
2 months ago

Agreed! How fortunate we are all to enjoy the meet this COVID-19 year. I don’t know how many people realize the toll this year has taken physically and mentally on our student athletes (unless you have a personal connection to one). They should be celebrated for their resilience! I am so proud to be a parent of a swimmer in this meet. ☺️

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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