What Would The 2024 U.S. Olympic Team Look Like If It Was Named Today?

We now know that 408 men and 335 women have qualified for the 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials, with just over four months left inside the qualifying period before the lights shine bright at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis in June.

Psych sheets, entry times, rankings…these things mean very little when it comes to earning a spot on the U.S. Olympic team. The swimmers have to perform when the pressure is on.

But still, if we were to look at how the U.S. team would be comprised if it were to simply be picked based on rankings inside the qualifying period, how does that shake out?

As we stand here in mid-January, 21 women and 26 men are in position to qualify for the team based on where they rank in the country since Nov. 30, 2022.

Below, find a full list of each event with the swimmers who are currently inside a qualifying spot.


Event Swimmer Age Time
50 free Weitzeil, Abbey 26 24.00
Walsh, Gretchen 20 24.31
100 free Douglass, Kate 21 52.57
Weitzeil, Abbey 26 52.92
400 free relay Walsh, Gretchen 20 53.14
Huske, Torri 20 53.17
Smoliga, Olivia 28 53.28
Parker, Maxine 21 53.51
200 free Ledecky, Katie 25 1:54.96
Weinstein, Claire 16 1:55.26
800 free relay Sims, Bella 18 1:55.45
Gemmell, Erin 18 1:55.97
Shackell, Alex 16 1:56.70
Smith, Leah 28 1:56.91
400 free Ledecky, Katie 26 3:58.73
Sims, Bella 18 4:03.25
800 free Ledecky, Katie 26 8:07.07
Cox, Jillian 18 8:19.73
1500 free Ledecky, Katie 26 15:26.27
Grimes, Katie 17 15:56.27
100 back Smith, Regan 21 57.68
Berkoff, Katharine 22 58.01
200 back Smith, Regan 21 2:03.80
White, Rhyan 23 2:05.77
100 breast King, Lilly 26 1:04.75
Jacoby, Lydia 19 1:05.16
200 breast Douglass, Kate 22 2:19.30
King, Lilly 26 2:20.95
100 fly Huske, Torri 20 56.18
Walsh, Gretchen 20 56.34
200 fly Smith, Regan 21 2:03.87
Luther, Dakota 23 2:06.79
200 IM Douglass, Kate 21 2:07.09
Walsh, Alex 22 2:07.63
400 IM Grimes, Katie 17 4:31.41
Walsh, Alex 21 4:34.46


Event Swimmer Age Time
50 free Held, Ryan 28 21.50
Alexy, Jack 20 21.57
100 free Alexy, Jack 20 47.31
Held, Ryan 28 47.63
400 free relay Lasco, Destin 21 47.87
King, Matt 21 47.93
Guiliano, Chris 20 47.98
McDuff, Macguire 20 48.08
200 free Hobson, Luke 20 1:44.87
Smith, Kieran 23 1:45.63
800 free relay Foster, Carson 21 1:45.64
Kibler, Drew 23 1:45.67
Mitchell, Jake 21 1:45.82
Curry, Brooks 22 1:46.39
400 free Johnston, David 21 3:45.75
Smith, Kieran 23 3:45.77
800 free Finke, Robert 23 7:38.67
Dant, Ross 22 7:48.10
1500 free Finke, Robert 23 14:31.59
Clark, Charlie 21 14:50.84
100 back Murphy, Ryan 28 52.02
Armstrong, Hunter 22 52.33
200 back Murphy, Ryan 28 1:54.83
Lasco, Destin 21 1:55.63
100 breast Fink, Nic 29 58.36
Matheny, Josh 20 59.20
200 breast Fallon, Matthew 20 2:07.71
Foster, Jake 22 2:08.23
100 fly Rose, Dare 20 50.46
Casas, Shaine 23 50.80
200 fly Heilman, Thomas 16 1:53.82
Foster, Carson 21 1:53.85
200 IM Casas, Shaine 23 1:56.06
Foster, Carson 21 1:56.19
400 IM Foster, Carson 21 4:06.56
Kalisz, Chase 29 4:08.22

On the women’s side, Katie Ledecky unsurprisingly leads all swimmers with four individual events in which she’s projected to qualify in, all of which she’s won at least one Olympic gold medal in and is the defending champion in two: 200, 400, 800 and 1500 free.

Kate Douglass and Regan Smith are both in position to qualify in three individual events, while Gretchen Walsh has two individual and an additional relay event on her list.

Abbey WeitzeilKatie GrimesLilly King and Alex Walsh are also ranked either first or second in two events.


Swimmer Event(s)
1 Abbey Weitzeil 50 free, 100 free
2 Gretchen Walsh
50 free, 100 fly, 400 free relay
3 Kate Douglass
100 free, 200 breast, 200 IM
4 Torri Huske
100 fly, 400 free relay
5 Olivia Smoliga 400 free relay
6 Maxine Parker 400 free relay
7 Katie Ledecky
200/400/800/1500 free
8 Claire Weinstein 200 free
9 Bella Sims
400 free, 800 free relay
10 Erin Gemmell 800 free relay
11 Alex Shackell 800 free relay
12 Leah Smith 800 free relay
13 Jillian Cox 800 free
14 Katie Grimes
1500 free, 400 IM
15 Regan Smith
100/200 back, 200 fly
16 Katharine Berkoff 100 back
17 Rhyan White 200 back
18 Lilly King 100/200 breast
19 Lydia Jacoby 100 breast
20 Dakota Luther 200 fly
21 Alex Walsh 200/400 IM

With so many doubles, triples and Ledecky’s quad, the women’s theoretical roster doesn’t approach the maximum 26-member squad, but the men’s does.

The men’s roster hits the number right at 26, as Carson Foster is the only swimmer in position to qualify in three individual events (along with one relay).

Ryan HeldJack AlexyBobby FinkeRyan MurphyKieran Smith and Shaine Casas are all in position to qualify in two individual events, but the rest of the team is looking at one (Destin Lasco has one individual and one relay).


Swimmer Event(s)
1 Ryan Held 50/100 free
2 Jack Alexy 50/100 free
3 Destin Lasco
200 back, 400 free relay
4 Matt King 400 free relay
5 Chris Guiliano 400 free relay
6 Macguire McDuff 400 free relay
7 Luke Hobson 200 free
8 Kieran Smith 200/400 free
9 Carson Foster
200 fly, 200/400 IM, 800 free relay
10 Drew Kibler 800 free relay
11 Jake Mitchell 800 free relay
12 Brooks Curry 800 free relay
13 David Johnston 400 free
14 Bobby Finke 800/1500 free
15 Ross Dant 800 free
16 Charlie Clark 1500 free
17 Ryan Murphy 100/200 back
18 Hunter Armstrong 100 back
19 Nic Fink 100 breast
20 Josh Matheny 100 breast
21 Matt Fallon 200 breast
22 Jake Foster 200 breast
23 Dare Rose 100 fly
24 Shaine Casas 100 fly, 200 IM
25 Thomas Heilman 200 fly
26 Chase Kalisz 400 IM

Since it’s the only major international event to have occurred inside the qualifying period thus far, this theoretical U.S. Olympic team looks very similar to the one that was sent to the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka.

The key differences:

The glaring name missing from this theoretical roster is Caeleb Dressel, the defending Olympic champion in the men’s 50 free, 100 free and 100 fly.

Dressel, as we know, took an extended break out of the pool beginning in the summer of 2022 and only got back into action last May.

Dressel currently ranks fifth in the U.S. inside the qualifying period in the 100 fly (51.31), 10th in the 50 free (21.99), and 20th in the 100 free (48.85).


Below, find a list of the swimmers one spot outside of a qualifying spot in the rankings. That’s third in an individual event and seventh in a relay event (100/200 free).

If the swimmer that is next up is already on the theoretical roster in a different event, we’ve listed the next-fastest swimmer with their ranking in brackets.

Not listed is those who are next up in the individual 100 and 200 free, which are, respectively, Gretchen Walsh and Bella Sims for the women, and Destin Lasco and Carson Foster for the men.

*McMahon said she was putting swimming “on hold” in September 2023.
**Flickinger has not competed since the 2023 U.S. Nationals.

You can find the full list of Olympic Trials qualifiers and domestic rankings in the qualifying period here.

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3 months ago

Dressel makes the team in the 50 free, 100
Fly and relay
MA might come though in the 50 free and 100 br but not so sure
In the women there will be at least a couple of 15-16 relatively new names

Reply to  Comet16
3 months ago

Not 100free?

Knotty Buoy
3 months ago

This is a fun, but silly exercise.

Kind of like how USA Swimming used to pick its Worlds team in the third year of the Oly Quad by selecting the performers by how they placed at Nationals during the second year of the Quad (for example, the 2015 Worlds team was selected at 2014 Nationals, etc.)

3 months ago

I think Madden makes it in 400 free and not sims, also on 4 x 200.

I miss the ISL
3 months ago

Kind of annoyed that this comment section turned into a conversation about the Aussie olympic team instead

Reply to  I miss the ISL
3 months ago

There’s only one top level comment about Australia and it’s not like there’s anything stopping people from talking about the US team but the analysis in the article was quite comprehensive so there’s not much more to say.

Jimmy DeSnuts
3 months ago

Dressel gonna crash the party
50- Dressel will make it, his start will always be the best and he doesn’t need as much training for the 50, but the second spot is an even toss-up between MA, Alexy, Held. I really have no idea who it will be, but I hope it aint MA.
100- Alexy/Dressel (I think Alexy wins at trials but CD at the games)
100 fly- Dressel/Rose (Heilman has a shot too, Casas is not making the team in this)

Reply to  Jimmy DeSnuts
3 months ago

What do you have against MA? Don’t you want the fastest swimmer to win the slot? Let them earn it. One of those guys is probably going to have to drop a 21.3 or 21.4 to qualify. I don’t think Heilman has a shot in the 100fly. Rose or Casas is a toss-up.

MA said earlier he would swim 100fly at trials but he is a longshot there. He’d have a better shot in the 2IM but only if Casas, Kalisz and Williamson all finish behind him. 50free and 100br are his only realistic shot.

Boxall's Railing
Reply to  Jimmy DeSnuts
3 months ago

Why all the downvotes? Because MA not included? Seem like pretty reasonable predictions overall.

Reply to  Boxall's Railing
3 months ago

“…how the U.S. team would be comprised if it were to simply be picked based on rankings inside the qualifying period, …”

Hank/Boxall’s Railing — This is not a prediction or choice of one swimmer over another.


3 months ago

KL is 26 not 25

Viking Steve
3 months ago

That would be one young team on both sides!

Babashoff - Woodhead - Evans - Ledecky
3 months ago

I’m surprised Michael Andrew didn’t register top 2 in 100 breast in the past year

Last edited 3 months ago by Babashoff - Woodhead - Evans - Ledecky
Jimmy DeSnuts

I’m surprised he can even swim 100 yards of breast at this point. I bet he’s damn good at surfing tho

Garbage Yardage
Reply to  Jimmy DeSnuts
3 months ago

He’s just stoked to watch the Olympics on NBC

Reply to  Garbage Yardage
3 months ago

On the beach in Costa Rica?

Reply to  Jimmy DeSnuts
3 months ago

50 meters or bust!


MA has been in a bit of a breaststroke slump since Tokyo. I don’t think he has been under 59 again and not even under a minute too often. He looked OK in Knoxville.

Reply to  Hank
3 months ago

100 meters is twice as far as 50 meters.

Garbage Yardage

I’m sure he’ll be stoked to swim those 50s in Doha though.

Reply to  Garbage Yardage
3 months ago

The stroke 50s in Doha should be plenty competitive. I don’t think Dressel is going but most of the firepower should be there. Doha is a great opportunity for MA to win some international long course medals.

Reply to  Hank
3 months ago

…win some cash

Reply to  Garbage Yardage
3 months ago

Michael Andrew won’t be swimming any 50 meter events in Paris.


Not really.

About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James swam five years at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario, specializing in the 200 free, back and IM. He finished up his collegiate swimming career in 2018, graduating with a bachelor's degree in economics. In 2019 he completed his graduate degree in sports journalism. Prior to going to Laurentian, James swam …

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