The Relay Breakdown: Men’s 4x200m Freestyle

by Sam Blacker 34

June 04th, 2025 National, News

2025 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

MEN’S 200 Freestyle- Final

Results:

  1. Luke Hobson (TXLA) – 1:43.73 *US Open Record*
  2. Gabriel Jett (CAL) – 1:44.70
  3. Rex Maurer (TXLA) – 1:45.13
  4. Henry McFadden (JW) – 1:45.22
  5. Carson Foster (UN) – 1:45.45
  6. Kieran Smith (RAC) – 1:45.72
  7. Chris Guiliano (TXLA) – 1:45.73
  8. Luke Mijatovic (PLS) – 1:46.39

After a prelims session where 14 men broke 1:47, the final tonight did not disappoint with seven men 1:45.73 or better. The add-up of the top four is 6:58.78 – only 0.23 seconds slower than the World Record.

The US may well now be favourites for the 4×200 free this summer, and there will be a fascinating matchup between a very raw American team and a British quartet who have developed a winning habit.

The top four from tonight will be guaranteed a spot, whilst fifth and sixth will need to wait to see how the team shapes up elsewhere.

So, what does all this mean for Team USA’s 4×200 free relay this summer?

The Past Is History, the Future Is a Mystery?

Last year’s Olympic Trials featured the fastest (by relay add-up) U.S. Nationals final ever before this year. Four men were 1:45.61 or better, with that time ending up being enough to take eighth in Paris.

The US took silver in the 4×200 free relay there behind a British quartet that have dominated the event every time they have swum in the past four years, but they have now swum 7:00.XX at three consecutive summer international meets.

With Luke Hobson looking formidable as the leadoff, and Kieran Smith and Carson Foster having shown some serious sub-1:45 speed in this event, this could be the year they snatch the crown back.

The add-up this year was even faster than in 2024, and that should instill some confidence for a sub-7:00 time in Singapore.

Here was what the gaps looked like between the add-up from the top four at Nationals and the relay times swum later that summer since 2000.

We love to predict how relays will perform before a major summer meet. There are almost no other real opportunities for a top-tier long course relay team to compete, so there’s limited data to go off.

Based on the U.S. Nationals results we’ve built a rough model to predict the final time for the American 4×100 free relay this summer. To calculate this we’ve considered the National Championship results (top four), previous history of the drops from Nationals to the relay in the summer, and the raw times themselves.

The past four years look something like this:

Year Trials Add-up Predicted Time Range (90% confidence band*) Range (50% confidence band) Actual Relay Time
2021 7:03.21 7:00.90 7:00.11 – 7:01.83 7:00.62 – 7:01.27 7:02.43
2022 7:02.92 7:00.67 6:59.83 – 7:01.62 7:00.37- 7:01.05 7:00.34
2023 7:02.81 7:00.58 6:59.72 – 7:01.54 7:00.27 – 7:00.96 7:00.02
2024 7:01.48 6:59.59 6:58.29 – 7:00.64 6:59.08 – 7:00.04 7:00.78

*This defines the upper and lower limits of a range in which we would be 90% sure that the result would fall – if this was raced 100 times, in 90 of those we’d expect a time in this range.

First things first, the model does have some limitations. It is only intended as a ballpark figure and the 90% and 50% confidence bands are too confident, especially for the last few years where the actual drops have ranged anywhere from 0.88 seconds to 2.92 seconds.

Overall though, we’re not looking for this to give us an absolute relay time to hold ourselves to for the summer – just a range which we (or you) can debate. Without further ado, here are all the numbers from this year’s trials you need to worry about.

The Numbers

Top 4
1 Luke Hobson – 1:43.73
2 Gabriel Jett – 1:44.70
3 Rex Maurer – 1:45.13
4 Henry McFadden – 1:45.22
Total 6:58.78
Predicted time 6:57.21
Range (90% confidence band) 6:53.73 – 6:58.72
Range (50% confidence band) 6:56.90 – 6:58.45

The top four tonight were quick enough to expose a limitation in our rough’n’ready model – when the add-up is on the World Record the sky really is the limit. A 1:43.43 average would be quite something to watch.

 

Fastest three flat-start times of the top-six:

Place Swimmer #1 #2 #3
1 Luke Hobson 1:43.73 1:44.78 1:44.79
2 Gabriel Jett 1:44.70 1:45.46 1:47.16
3 Rex Maurer 1:45.13 1:45.46 1:46.79
4 Henry McFadden 1:45.22 1:46.13 1:46.80
5 Carson Foster 1:45.45 1:45.57 1:45.62
6 Kieran Smith 1:44.74 1:45.07 1:45.12

 

Fastest senior international three relay splits of the top six:

Place Swimmer #1 #2 #3
1 Luke Hobson
2 Gabriel Jett
3 Rex Maurer
4 Henry McFadden 1:46.39
5 Carson Foster 1:43.94 1:44.49 1:45.02
6 Kieran Smith 1:44.35 1:44.47 1:44.80

Hobson has led off every 4×200 relay he has been part of for Team USA

Fastest flat-start add-up:

Place Swimmer Time
1 Luke Hobson 1:43.73
2 Gabriel Jett 1:44.70
3 Kieran Smith 1:44.74
4 Rex Maurer 1:45.13
Add-up 6:58.30

 

Fastest flat start + relay split add-up:

Place Swimmer Time
1 Luke Hobson 1:43.73
2 Carson Foster 1:43.94
3 Kieran Smith 1:44.35
4 Gabriel Jett 1:44.70 (FS)
Total Add-up 6:56.72

 

As a final look ahead, here are the U.S. Nationals/Trials to summer relay drops since 2000 based on location. The circles get darker as the year gets later, and any hollow circles indicate a negative drop – that is, an increase.

 

 

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Mark O
1 day ago

I really don’t understand the debate here??!! GB still win this thing!

Swimfan27
2 days ago

Men’s 200 free might be the trials swim of the meet for me. Did not expect that amount of depth

Regan Smith 56 and 53 100 back
2 days ago

It would be so funny if after the GB team has gotten close to the world record on so many times if the US just comes in and beats it

Alison England
Reply to  Regan Smith 56 and 53 100 back
2 days ago

How is that funny?

Grant Drukker
Reply to  Alison England
2 days ago

Because they have been the by far best team in the world for the last 4 years, and in a year where the US weren’t expected to be this good / a lot of “no names”, breaking the world record would make you smile and laugh.

Long Strokes
Reply to  Alison England
2 days ago

I’m guessing you’re British based off your last name

Alison England
Reply to  Long Strokes
1 day ago

Yes!

Dee
Reply to  Alison England
2 days ago

In the same way it would be funny if GB now finally break the World Record just as the Americans expect to win the 4×2 – Irony!

Jonny
2 days ago

Great to see the best times like this!

Here are the britts…

Scott – 1.43.4
Dean- 1.43.5
Guy 1.43.8
Richards 1.44.3

Crazy to think these boys havent broken the WR yet and USA boys may get it before them.

Swimgeek
2 days ago

We have not had this kind of 4×200 since . . . ever

Thomas The Tank Engine
2 days ago

I fancy USA chances to finally beat UK

Dee
Reply to  Thomas The Tank Engine
2 days ago

They have a very, very good chance – The one thing not in their favour is that the top 4 all just had huge drops and its going to be difficult for them all the replicate at World’s. The positive is that ol’ Mr reliables Smith & Foster will deliver 1.44s if any of the above to fail to replicate, so the negative is moot.

For GB, the positive is that, Dean aside, our boys were all as fast as they’ve ever been outside of taper a couple of weeks ago in London, and loke clockwork they will be faster at Worlds than trials. The negative is that Dean is unlikely to be back in 1.44 shape after 5 months… Read more »

Alison England
Reply to  Thomas The Tank Engine
2 days ago

They probably have a good chance. However, I am pleased that Duncan and Deano had a good break. Tbf, it’s the Olympics that really counts.

Thomas The Tank Engine
Reply to  Alison England
2 days ago

Agreed.

Olympic 4×200 gold back to back is just *chef’s kiss*

Go Bears
2 days ago

I still can’t believe Jett went 1:44 and got 2nd. I thought top 6 would have been an awesome result.

Thomas The Tank Engine
Reply to  Go Bears
2 days ago

Stanford and CAL are doing awesome.

Relay names guy and Andrew are in shambles.

ZThomas
Reply to  Go Bears
2 days ago

Gabe perfectly executed swimming in Hobson’s wake.

Go Bears
Reply to  Go Bears
1 day ago

whoops – double comment. Shows how excited I was about that swim.

Go Bears
2 days ago

I still can’t believe Jett went 1:44 and got 2nd. I thought top 6 would have been an awesome result.

Also, Hobson is a machine.