We’re kicking off the year 2021 with a countdown of the top 100 women and top 100 men in world-level swimming heading into the Olympic year. We’ll break down the list into multiple installments, so stay tuned as we continue with our lists.
We’ve placed a heavy priority on individual Olympic medal potential and world record potential, but we’ve also weighed potential for impact at other world-level events like Short Course Worlds, the ISL season, and the World Cup. These lists are, by nature, subjective. If you disagree, leave your thoughts/ranks in the comments.
See also:
Men’s #21-30
We’ve got a little bit of everything in this tier. We’re still not up the point where anyone is the favorite for gold medal, but the flip side is the most of the men in this group could be in the mix for Olympic medals in multiple events.
The further into the list we get, the more heavily we way recent performances, generally, so one thing that most of these ten guys have in common is that they had solid 2020 seasons, whether at big domestic meets, or in the ISL. The few guys who didn’t do anything hugely noteworthy in 2020 are guys who track record or trajectory still makes them serious contenders, but who would probably be a few rungs higher had they gotten to swim more at bigger meets this year.
Like we said, there’s a pretty even mix across the disciplines here, with three mid/distance freestylers, two backstrokers, two breaststrokers, an IMer, a sprint freestyler, and a free/fly type. An interesting note about this group of ten is that, collectively, they could challenge for an Olympic medal in every event except the 200 fly, and it definitely wouldn’t be surprising if more than one was to come away with Olympic gold.
#30: Chase Kalisz, United States – If we had make this list two years ago, Kalisz probably would’ve been ranked in the top ten. Michael Phelps’ former training partner dominated the IM events for the first two years of the quad, sweeping golds at 2017 Worlds and 2018 Pan Pacs. But he looked much less dominant in 2019, settling for a bronze in the 200 IM and 10th in the 400 IM in Gwanju. Still, we’ve seen plenty of US swimmers experience a down year the year before the Olympics, then pull it together when it counts, and with Kalisz having been 1:57/4:13 in December 2019, and with a pretty wide open IM field, Kalisz stands as good a chance of anyone in this discipline to pull down multiple medals.
#29: Elijah Winnington, Australia – He was one of many Australians to sit out the ISL season, but that didn’t stop him from hitting some great SCM times, becoming the 3rd-fastest Aussie ever with his 3:37 in the short course 400 free. Additionally, he hit long course lifetime bests of 1:45.79 in the 200 free and 3:43.90 in the 400, potentially moving him into contention for a spot on Australia’s 4×200 free relay, which is likely to earn a medal, as well into medal contention in the 400 free.
#28: Mykhailo Romanchuk, Ukraine – The Ukrainian has been as consistent as just about anyone else in the 1500m over the last few years, netting silver medals at 2017 and 2019 Worlds, and then posting the 2nd-fastest time in the world in 2020 with his 14:41.63 last March, just before the pandemic started shutting things down. His 7:43.90 from March could also put him in the running for a medal in the 800 free.
#27: Maxime Rooney, United States – There’s a solid argument for ranking Rooney higher, even though he didn’t compete, let alone win a medal, at the World Championships in 2019. He hit lifetime bests in the 100 fly (50.68), 100 free (47.61), and 200 free (1:46.68) at the 2019 USA Summer Nationals. Those 100 fly and 100 free times would’ve netted him silver and bronze, respectively, at 2019 Worlds. His 200 free time gives him an outside shot at the USA 4×200 free relay team as well. He also had a solid ISL season, helping the LA Current to a 4th-place finish. All together, Rooney has a realistic shot at three relay medals and an individual medal this summer. The counter-argument, though, is that Rooney had a similar breakout meet at 2015 Summer Nationals and was unable to crack the USA’s 2016 Olympic team, and that the USA’s depth is so great, that there’s no guarantee he’ll make the team in any of those events, despite the world-class times.
#26: Matthew Wilson, Australia – It feels tough to have a guy who tied the 200 breast world record in 2019 ranked this low, but such is the depth in the 200 breast right now. He just missed the final in the 100 breast at 2019 Worlds, but he set a new Oceanic record in the 100 breast (SCM) with his 56.89 last November, so if he can find a little more speed in long course version, he stands an outside chance at picking up a minor medal in that event as well.
#25: Florent Manaudou, France – Like several other top swimmers, the pandemic has complicated his training, but he still had an outstanding 2020 ISL season, contributing in the 50 free, 100 free, and 100 IM for Energy Standard. Now, he’ll be training exclusively in France, back with CNM, the same club he was swimming with when he earned Olympic gold in 2012. He clocked a 21.56 in the long course 50 free at the beginning of 2020, just 0.06s behind Vladimir Morozov for the fastest time in the world last calendar year. We saw Anthony Ervin win gold in Rio after a long break from swimming, and right now Manaudou may be the best bet to upset Caeleb Dressel in the 50 free.
#24: Gabriele Detti – “Mr. Bronze” has secured 3rd-place in the 400m freestyle at the last three major worldwide long course meets: the 2016 Olympics and the 2017 and 2019 World Championships. With the fastest long course time in the world in 2020 in the 400 free (3:43.73) and the 3rd-fastest time in the 800 free (7:46.04) and his track record of consistency, it feels like we should be able to pencil Detti for at least one minor medal this summer.
#23: Kliment Kolesnikov, Russia – He won the 2018 Swammy for World Swimmer of the Year, thanks to standout performances at the European Championships, the Youth Olympic Games, and the Short Course World Championships. Since then, he’s arguably taken a bit of a backseat to Russian teammate Evgeny Rylov on the long course side, part in thanks to a shoulder injury that limited his performance at 2019 Worlds. But Kolesnikov could still be in line for two relays medals as part of Russia’s 4×100 free and medley relays, and he’s riding high after a great ISL season which saw him break the World Record in the short course 100 back.
#22: Ryosuke Irie, Japan – If you were to just glance at international medals over the last few years, your first thought might be that the veteran backstroker is too high on this list; he didn’t medal in the Olympics, or at the last three World Championships. But the 31 year-old started 2020 by going 52.59/1:55.35, which ended up as the #1 and #2 times worldwide in 2020, hit a lifetime best of 49.91 in the 100 back (SCM) in ISL competition, and then wrapped up 2020 with yet another long course 1:55, meaning he is very much in the medal conversation heading into this summer, especially when you figure in the excitement that comes with swimming at home for the Olympics.
#21: Ilya Shymanovich, Belarus – Shymanovich is an elite sprint breaststroker who ended up 12th overall in MVP points across the 2020 ISL season. He followed that up less than a month later by smashing the world record in the short course 100 meter breaststroke. Most of Shymanovich’s medal production internationally has come in short course – and of course, the long course sprint breaststrokes have one pretty big obstacle to Shymanovich’s gold medal potential. But Shymanovich (58.2 in the long course 100 breast in 2019) is the #2 performer in all of history in the long course 100 breast, and was one bad semifinals swim away from a silver medal at 2019 Worlds. He has as good a shot as anyone to become just the second man ever under 58 seconds in the event.
Tommy Shields??
Can someone please say Chase Kalisz’s name without saying Michael Phelp’s name. Someone? Anyone?
Would´ve expected Phelps right around here in 30-21 with a shot at a minor medal in the 200 im
what are the downvotes about? genuinely believe that´s where he could be at right now. Obviously I wasn´t serious about actually expecting him in the ranking
Rooney is way too high.
Ahorre totally!
Agree totally!
Kalisz and Cordes seem to have run out of gas.
Every american breastroker has run out of gas
Not Wilson. Not Fink. Not Licon.
If dressel did not rise usa world not even medal in 2019 medley relay. The recent sucess on usa men medley relays is not because of their breaststrokers at all
I think Russia will definitely be dangerous on all three relays this year. However, in the medley I think they are a more consistent threat than GB to usa, given GB has a bit of a shaky first leg.
I agree, but my point is that “running out of gas” implies they’re getting worse, but they’re not. US men’s breaststroke right now is not on the level of Britain or Russia or China or Japan, but they’re not getting worse across the board.
Instead of running out ot gas, they are actually laging behind..
At worlds I think Wilson had the 2nd fastest overall split behind Party.
Peaty 57,20 (Could been faster)
Koseki 58,16
Zibei 58,26
Wilson 58,65
Prigoda 58,68
Joao Gomes 58,80
No Kamminga and Dolphinianovic
AUS Wilson was slower on final than semis
Fink at 2019 Pan AM was faster than Wilson (58,57)
I still have Finnerty and Nowicki for 2021
Will Cseh really be ranked in the top 20?
Lol now I know all of your dozens of comments have just been trolls.
Love Laszlo, great swimmer for a long time, but…it will be a miracle if he makes an Olympic final, let alone wins a medal.
I haven’t looked through the whole Hungarian rankings, but there’s some chance that he doesn’t even make the team.
He might make the team on 200 IM but his best since 2018 was 1:57:90…
He has no records of 400 IM.
On 100 fly he is behind Milak and Szabo and his best was 51,6
On 200 Fly he is behind Milak Kenderesi and he just went 1:55 at best
So.. he may go to OG.. but won´t medal at all
Bronze in Athens and silver in Beijing in the 400 IM. Yes his best swimming there is probably behind him though.
No records os 400 IM in the last years..
Are you sure that you are a swimming fan? Cseh is one of the biggest legends of this century in the 400 IM (for example he won silver in 2008 with a time of 4:06.16, ahead of Lochte) and in 2017 for example he went 1:53 in the 200 fly at worlds and won silver. If it wouldn’t have been for Phelps and Lochte, Cseh would have won 4 individual olympic golds and would probably be considered the greatest swimmer of this century (so far).
Cseh could realistically final in 2-4 events (200/400 IM, 100/200 fly). It will be difficult to make the team in the fly events, but he doesn’t have much competition in the IM events. I think… Read more »
He’s just old now
Cseh for 200IM gold 2021
He did not swim 400IM since 2017.. I checked times since 2018 and he has 0 recorded times on top 5 of Hungary on 400 IM.
I Am not saying he is not a swimming legend, but he won´t medal now.. dude just got old.. that´s it
I saw that my first reply was not as obvious as I thought.
I want to say about his times since 2018.
He probably won’t medal, but that’s not my point. My point was that he should be ranked in the top 100. I just looked at the rankings again and in my opinion there are roughly 30 guys who should be ranked below him, so i would rank him around #70. Even in the top 50 there are 3 guys (Haas, Seliskar, Lima) i would rank below him. The more i think about it, the more doubts i have whether James Guy should be ranked much higher than him. At the last worlds they were about equal in the 100 fly and they both got eliminated in the semifinal of their second event. Cseh would have made the 200 IM final… Read more »
What are you talking about? I was seriously wondering if Cseh will be ranked in the top 20, since he hasn’t been ranked so far. I definitely don’t think that he should be ranked in the top 20, but personally i think that he should be ranked in the top 100.
Also it is interesting that you think just because someone makes a troll post (which i didn’t, but let’s assume for the sake of your argument that i did), you can assume that all of the comments of said person can be considered troll posts.
lol
Kolesnikov>Irie:
Also he is a lot younger, and no, I’m not Russian.
I would say top 2 contender in 4×100 free..
I think if you just look at the numbers, then Kolesnikov definitely should be ranked higher than Irie, but i still understand why someone would rank Irie higher: Kolesnikov has been very inconsistent, so there will always be some doubts around him. In my opinion Kolesnikov is more likely to win a medal (or even gold) in Tokyo than Irie is, but i would also say that he is more likely to be eliminated in prelims.
Kolesnikov had a shoulder injury two months prior to the 2019 World Championships. Other than his performance in Gwangju, I can’t remember when he showed inconsistency.
He was great in 2018, then he pretty much “disappeared” until the last short-course season. That is what i mean with inconsistency. The last decent long-course times of him i could find were 53.03 and 1:56.07, both from April 2019.
Kliment was still growing in those years .
Agree, I think Kolesnikov is going to be a star at the Olympics. The Russian relays are going to be right there for gold.
Agree that he’s one to watch. 2018 was the year when we went his LCM PB’s. He beat his SCM PB in the 100 back from late 2017, which he went leading into 2018. He was injured in 2019, and we’ve already seen him come back strong. He just needs to get some LCM racing in.