This week on the SwimSwam Breakdown, we discuss the likelihood that Caeleb Dressel‘s NCAA records get broken, the fairness of whereabouts failure suspensions, and ‘Rowdy’s Rule’ for getting back into swim shape. See full list of topics below:
- 0:00 SwimSwam Breakdown Introduction
- 0:44 How much can Maggie MacNeil impact the LSU women in just 1 year
- 4:15 How touchable are Caeleb Dressel‘s NCAA records in the 50 free, 100 free, and 100 fly?
- 9:57 Will we see Spain become a hub for European pros under Ben Titley?
- 15:12 Is it time for the IOC to let Russian athletes compete?
- 18:20 Is having an hour window every day for random drug testing a fair standard?
SINK or SWIM
- 25:15 Do you buy Rowdy’s theory of 1/2 day for every day taken out of the pool?
- 28:33 Will Peter Paulus earn an NCAA relay spot for Texas in his career?
- 32:17 Can open water racing have benefits for pool racing?
- 35:29 Will Cate Campbell be on Australia’s Finals 4×100 Free Relay in Paris?
Re final “Sink or Swim”; put me down as “line-ball” at this point. I think McKeon & MOC (barring anything untoward occuring) are finals “locks” for AUS 4X100 but other 2 legs are very much up for grabs.
Of the other current squad members (Wilson, Harris & Jack); on 2022 outings, Wilson’s performances have been the strongest with her 52.2 on MFR in Budapest. Harris and Jack are yet to deliver any split in that range. Whilst it’s unlikely C1 will ever revisit sub52 territory, a sub 52.5 may not be beyond her.
2023 may certainly rearrange this geography and at least one of the current juniors may enter the equation but, at this point, the opening is still… Read more »
If I were to predict relay splits:
MOC: 51 mid
McKeon: 51 high
Jack/Wilson/Harris: 52 low
C1: 52.whatever is good enough for top 6
Throssell/Jansen/Wunsch: 52 mid-high
I’ll reserve judgement of the other youngsters for now. C1 could enter the low column, she was still solid last year and I imagine the delay really messed her up, she should be refreshed and it depends on how her new setup works out. I’ll personally guess MOC/Wilson/Jack/McKeon for the final, 51.9/52.3/52.1/51.8 3:28.1 WR, prelim quartet could be around a 3:30 flat which is probably not going to be matched by any final side outside of their teammates. This is optimistic I know, but it really is a machine at this point.
I think the first record he gets may not be Dressel’s at all. It might just be the 200y free. He has way more raw speed than the guys chasing it, and just as the 500y and 200m free complement each other, so too do the 200y and 100m free. Freshness is a factor, and at both SECs and NCAAs, the 800 free relay is night one, finals only. Even if he never branches into the 200m free internationally, I’d bet he’s got a killer 200y free in him and we’ll see it sooner than later.
I took 27 years off so if Rowdy is right I should be back to my teenage speed in 2027 🤣
Coleman, will we get a live stream of the Orange & White meet or something of the sort? I seem to remember a livestream last year, but I could be remembering incorrectly.
it will be available on James-Tube
Ooh, good point.
You talked about how the LSU team and LSU relays might fare with Maggie there. While she can’t carry a relay alone, even with a blistering fly leg, they may also have a fast backstroke leg if USC transfer Jade Hannah flourishes under Bishop and gets back into top form. Do they have potential in their breast and free legs that would allow their medley relay to climb the ranks significantly?
Emilie Boll is a sub-minute 100 breaststroker last year, but isn’t on their roster this year. Abby Maoz is their top returning breaststroker – 1:00.91 flat-start last year. Katarina Milutinovich was 22.4 in the 50 free and 48.4 in the 100 free last year.
Even with MacNeil, that puts them fairly borderline for top 16. There was no relay that scored last year without a 47-second anchor leg. There was also no relay that scored last year without both a 58-second 100 breast split and a 47-low (sub .5) or better 100 free split. So they’ll either need Katarina and Abby to catch fire, or as you mentioned for Jade Hannah to really show out in a way she hasn’t… Read more »
Excellent response. Thank you!
I’m predicting that some others will step up and they will just sneak in there for top 16! Time will tell!
Is Peter Paulus related to William Paulus who made the Olympic team in 1980?
More here: https://swimswam.com/peter-paulus-remarkable-comeback-culminates-in-roster-spot-at-texas/
Ngl though the Rowdy rule would be something like 83% of 200+ meter races are won by the swimmer with the fastest reaction time
Or the one that breathes to the left!
Not sure when this was recorded, but Russia mobilized up to 300,000 reservists and former soldiers to go back into the military.
This was recorded yesterday before that news broke.
It’s all terrible. Truly terrible.
And yet it’s very hard to imagine a scenario in which the same standards would be applied consistently towards the US. And so disappointing to hear people like Braden go on about how athletes are political, and how we shouldn’t even consider reinstating Russian athletes, without any semblance of self-awareness about what that would and should mean for US athletes in recent history.
For those who are unaware, between 184,282 and 207,156 CIVILIANS in Iraq died from direct war related violence caused by the US (https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/human/civilians/iraqi). The US illegally invaded Iraq in 2003, and pulled out in 2011. The word “illegal” is not mine, but from the… Read more »