Men’s 100 Free
- 2012 Olympic Champion: Nathan Adrian (USA), 47.52
- 2015 World Champion: Ning Zetao (CHN), 47.84
- World Record: Cesar Cielo (BRA), 46.91
Cameron McEvoy (Photo: Tim Binning, theswimpictures.com)
With the defending Olympic Champion, 2015 World Champion, and current fastest man of 2016 all throwing their hats into the ring in the men’s 100 freestyle, we could see them push the boundaries of the 47-barrier. This summer’s highly anticipated battle has Cesar Cielo’s World Record of 46.91 in danger, particularly in the hands of Australia’s Cameron McEvoy.
After having a breakthrough season in 2016, McEvoy is the clear front runner in this event. He’ll be making his 2nd Olympic appearance after swimming on the relays in 2012 as a 17-year-old, but this time he’ll be chasing individual gold as well as team titles. McEvoy sits on top of the 2016 World Rankings after clocking a 47.04 at 2016 Australian Nationals, the fastest time ever done in textile. If he can replicate his performance from earlier this year, he looks almost untouchable.
Reminiscent of McEvoy in 2012 is his Rio teammate Kyle Chalmers. Like McEvoy, he became the Junior World Champion in the 50 and 100 freestyle the summer before qualifying for his first Olympics at 17. Chalmers swam a 48.03 alongside McEvoy at Nationals, shattering his own Junior World Record in the process. Currently ranked 8th in the world, we could see the young Aussie make his first Olympic final.
Nathan Adrian (photo: Mike Lewis)
There to challenge McEvoy for the win will be Team USA’s Nathan Adrian, the 2012 Olympic Champion in this event. Adrian has been having a great season, winning U.S. Olympic trials in 47.72 to land 2nd in the world rankings. That swim was his 2nd fastest ever, behind only his 47.52 that he swam to overcome heavy favorite James Magnussen by a hundredth for the gold in 2012, proving that he can take things down to the wire and get his hand on the wall first in a tight racing situation.
The concern for some swimmers is that they may not be able to swim as fast at the Olympics as they did at their respective Trials or Nationals, but Adrian has had no trouble replicating his fast swims in the past. He’s consistently dropped time from his Trials swims at Worlds, Pan Pacs, and the Olympics, so his time in Omaha bodes will as he heads into Rio. Last time around, he was over half a second faster in London that he was at Trials.
While Adrian is the defending champion, Team USA will also be sending out a fresh face at these Games. Caeleb Dressel, the American Record holder in the 100 yard free, will be joining him this summer. Dressel fought off a loaded field to grab 2nd at U.S. Olympic Trials in 48.23. While that was his best time, he still believes he has a 47 in him. If his ability to drop time from SECs to NCAAs is any indication, Dressel could be even faster in Rio, and we might see another American swim sub-48 this summer. This is his only individual event, and he’ll only swim the 100 free on relays, so Dressel can put all his chips in the 100 free basket – a bit like Adrian did at the 2012 Olympics.
Santo Condorelli (Photo: Tim Binning)
Dressel’s former club teammate, Santo Condorelli, will swim at his first Olympics as a member of the Canadian team. He turned heads last summer when he broke 48 for the first time, swimming a 47.98 at Pan Ams that tied him as the fastest swimmer in the World at that point with his former USC teammate, Russia’s Vlad Morozov. At 2015 Worlds, he just missed the podium with a 4th place finish. Notably, he almost missed out on the final in Kazan with the 9th fastest time, but Morozov was DQed, bumping him to 8th. This year, Morozov and Condorelli are 9th and 10th in the world rankings, with times of 48.06 and 48.09, respectively.
China’s Ning Zetao, the 2015 World Champion in this event, is the 3rd fastest swimmer of 2016. His season best is from 2016 Chinese Nationals, where he swam a 47.96. Notably, he swam that time in semifinals before scratching out of the final, so we probably haven’t seen all his cards yet. Ning has been faster before, as his lifetime best is his Asian Record of 47.64 from Chinese Nationals in 2014.
Tied with Zetao is Italy’s Luca Dotto, who had an identical result at Italian Nationals with his flat start relay leg. Dotto set a new Italian Record in that race, becoming the first Italian man under 48 seconds and establishing himself as a possible finalist in Rio. The interesting thing about Dotto is that he’s been significantly faster on his relay leadoffs than in his individual swims. He won the 100 free in 48.40, so he’ll have to be able to replicate the motivation behind his relay swims in order to make the Olympic final individually.
Jérémy Stravius (Photo: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)
France will send 2 swimmers to Rio who are ranked in the world’s top 10 this year. Sitting 5th is Jeremy Stravius, a former backstroke World Champion, who won the 100 free at French Nationals in 47.97. His teammate Clement Mignon took the 2nd spot, just hundredths behind in 48.01. Mignon is actually the 3rd fastest French swimmer and 6th in the world this year, but Florent Manadou, who sits just ahead of him at 48.00, will not swim this event individually in Rio.
There are several swimmers bunched in the 48.2-48.3 range who could break into the 47s to reach the top 8. Two of those swimmers, Marcelo Chierighini and Nicolas Oliveira, will have the home advantage with the Olympics taking place in their native Brazil. Both swam their season bests at the Maria Lenk Trophy, where Chierighini was a 48.20 to Oliveira’s 48.30.
Men’s 100 Free Top 8 Predictions:
| Place | Swimmer | Country | Best Time (Since 2012 Olympics) | Predicted Time |
| 1 | Cameron McEvoy | AUS | 47.04 | 47.1 |
| 2 | Nathan Adrian | USA | 47.72 | 47.3 |
| 3 | Ning Zetao | CHN | 47.64 | 47.5 |
| 4 | Kyle Chalmers | AUS | 48.03 | 47.8 |
| 5 | Santo Condorelli | CAN | 47.98 | 47.8 |
| 6 | Vlad Morozov | RUS | 47.62 | 47.9 |
| 7 | Jeremy Stravius | FRA | 47.97 | 47.9 |
| 8 | Caeleb Dressel | USA | 48.23 | 48.0 |
Tons of medal contenders here, and lots of interesting things to think about.
-obviously McEvoy has by far the fastest PB, but can he go something close to that 47.0 when surrounded by big, fast swimmers that create a ton of waves? Producing a fast best time in a more comfortable environment with less competition (such as a National meet) is far different than doing so on the Olympic stage. We’ll see if he can far exceed the 47.9 he put up last summer.
-I fully expect Adrian to be in the hunt for gold. I know his PB is from 4 years ago and is 0.5 behind McEvoy, but I just don’t see him being that far behind. He’s… Read more »
Thats because 1.44.9 in the 200 is better than 47.9 in the 100.
All I mean by that is, the 100free as an event seems to be getting faster, but the 200free has stagnated. There is a ton of depth in 200free, but no one really “generational” in the event. Agnel was that swimmer for a few years, but it’s strange that there is no heavy favorite here as McEvoy is in 100free.
Positive comment on Adrian & negative comment on McEvoy!!!!!Not American are you????
Actually no, I’m Canadian.
And it’s not a negative comment on McEvoy, I’m just being a bit skeptical based on Adrian being the defending Olympic champ, and McEvoy being favored at Worlds last summer, but coming up short.
So just aout of curiousity anyone know what the fastest second 50 split in a 100 free is? The fastest one i can think of is phelps closing in 24.20 in beijing. For sake of simplicity lets go ahead and count super suit times as well.
1: McEvoy WR
2: Chalmers
3: Conderelli
Even if they don’t win gold, I’d like to see an American Record in the 100 free. Nothing against David Walters, but it’s hard to argue he’s overall a better 100 freestyler than Adrian or Dressel.
Walters was wearing a shiny suit. Was it Arena? If Arena or Jaked, he would probably have a lot of trouble breaking 48.
Dressed beats Adrian – Take it to the BANK!
Stravius has killer underwaters and if he can stay close enough to the leaders to get under the wave off the walls, he’s going to be able to bring it home. I don’t think he can win, but he certainly can medal. Dressel has worked really hard to develop his back half, and he should be able to get under 48. I don’t know that he is going to medal here, but I’m not going to count him out because he’s a racer and does his best when the big lights are on.
“…he’s a racer and does his best when the big lights are on.”
I don’t know about this. In Omaha, he swam the times significantly slower what most people had expected from him, he didn’t qualify in the event (50) where almost everyone had predicted he would, and he’s quite lucky to have qualified in 100; Held had terrible finish and the field apart from Nathan was quite slow.
We will see in Rio if he is indeed a great racer as you are claiming he is.
He swam a best time in the 100. It doesn’t matter if he swam “slower than people expected him to.” He literally did his best. Can’t ask for much more than that. Maybe his finish wasn’t great, but most of us can’t even begin to imagine the kind of pressure and the nerves he was dealing with. He is a great racer. There’s no doubt about that, and he’ll keep getting better with experience.
He did his best in 100, but he didn’t his best in his faraway best event, 50.
Also, actually his finish in 100 was GREAT. It was his finish that got his hand on the finish pad first.
Held (Ryan Held) was the one who had terrible finish and cost him the individual berth.
I wished you read my comment carefully.
I read your comment again and I sill stand by what I said. He’s a great racer and he did his best. Nothing takes away from that, even if he fell short of other people’s expectations in one event.
Sullivan 2008, Magnussen 2012, McEvoy 2016? McEvoy’s two best times ever were swam in Australia and he went a disappointing 47.9 in Kazan. Magnussen similarly went into London with a 47.1 (also swam in Australia) and went 47.5, while Adrian dropped .6 from trials to win the gold.
Sullivan wasn’t clear favourite in 2008. What has McEvoy got to do with the other 2.
Sullivan 2008 was NOT the favorite going into Beijing.
Let me remind you that Alain Bernard broke 100 free WR twice going into Beijing, Sullivan had never broken WR pre-Beijing.
Sullivan held the wr going into the individual event in Beijing
I said, Sullivan was not the favorite going into Beijing and Bernard held the WR going into Beijing.
Our discussion is comparing the current time (ie. a month before Olympics) with the same stage in 2008.
Adrian had only 100 free to train and swim for London.
When he had to train and focus on both 50 and 100, he didn’t do so well in all Barcelona, Pan Pacs and Kazan.
Watch for Simonas Bilas from Lithuania.
I believe McEvoy is the heavy favorite for several reasons. He’s 22 years old and swam that PB in April. He’s been able to put in more training, and as we’ve seen with Cate Campbell, he’ll likely be able to swim faster than at his nationals considering he is at the prime age for these types of performances.
I think Adrian is the favorite for silver, but his time at Trials is 0.67 slower than McEvoy’s. I think Adrian will drop a few more tenths, so likely he’ll swim 47.3, but that won’t be enough to upset McEvoy.
Mcevoy: 46.89 (it’s only 0.15 faster than his April time!; Campbell dropped 0.32 from April)
Adrian: 47.32
Zetao: 47.59