Rio 2016 Olympic Previews: Phelps Chasing 4-Straight In Men’s 100 Fly

Men’s 100 Fly

The 2016 Rio Olympics has set the stage for an epic men’s 100 fly showdown, with the defending Olympic champion and World Record holder, reigning world champion, Junior World Record holder, and several other international stars.

The battle between Olympic champ Michael Phelps and world champ Chad le Clos has been highly anticipated since they traded blows in the fly events in 2012. Le Clos pulled off the upset in the 200 fly, dethroning Phelps before the latter came back to win the 100 fly. Tensions have run high since Phelps came out of retirement, with the two clearly keeping each other in mind last summer.

Le Clos was crowned World Champion in 2015 after he won the 100 fly with a scorching 50.56, making him the fastest man in the world for 2015 to that point. After his gold medal performance, Le Clos aimed a little bit of smack talk towards Phelps. Though he was absent from Worlds after a DUI and some time in rehab earlier in the year, Phelps fired back at U.S. Nationals later that day with a 50.45 to unseat Le Clos as the fastest man of 2015.

Chad-Le-Clos-WCH-by-Peter-Sukenik-www.petersukenik.com-2608

Chad Le Clos (Photo: Peter Sukenik)

This year, neither of them has broken 51 yet, but Phelps currently sits at 2nd in the world with his 51.00 from U.S. Olympic Trials. Le Clos season best is a 51.09, which currently has him sitting 3rd in the rankings. It’s likely that we’ll see them push each other under their respective season bests, as both have plenty of motivation. Le Clos has been working to cement his status as the world’s best butterflier since 2012. Phelps, on the other hand, will be looking for an unprecedented fourpeat after taking the title in 2004, 2008, and 2012.

There to potentially break up the Phelps-Le Clos party will be Hungary’s Laszlo Cseh, who was the silver medalist at worlds last summer. Cseh has typically been more competitive in the 200 fly, but he’s recently become a major player in the shorter distance as well.  He currently holds the fastest time of 2016 with his 50.86 from the European Championships. That’s a best time for Cseh, who has been a medalist at every Olympics since he first represented Hungary at the 2004 Olympic Games in Athens.

Joseph Schooling celebrates his record-setting win in the 200 fly. (Photo Courtesy: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)

Joseph Schooling (Photo: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)

Singapore’s Joseph Schooling secured the first ever World Championships medal for his country last season with a bronze in this event. Schooling is based in Austin, Texas, where he trains under Eddie Reese at the University of Texas. His new Asian Record of 50.96 from last summer was his first time under 51, and his upward momentum makes him a serious medal threat. Schooling cleared the U.S. Open record at NCAAs with a 44.01 in the yards version of this event this season, and followed suit with an impressive long course win against Phelps at the Longhorn Elite Invite, where he swam a 51.58 that puts him 13th in the World Rankings.

Another young star looking to make his mark in Rio is China’s 17-year-old Li Zhuhao, who placed 8th at last summer’s World Championships. Zhuhao broke his own Junior World Record and tied the Chinese National Record this year at Chinese nationals, where he set his personal best at 51.24. That was his first ever Chinese national title, and potentially a good sign of what’s to come.

Tom Shields, Photo credit Tim Binning, theswimpictures.com

Tom Shields (Photo: Tim Binning, theswimpictures.com)

Qualifying for Rio behind Phelps in this event was Tom Shields, who will make his first Olympic appearance for the USA after finishing 2nd in both butterfly events in Omaha. Shields just missed the podium at Worlds last summer by a tenth, and his personal best is a 51.03 from semifinals at that meet. Shields posted a 51.20 at trials to earn the bid over a tight field, and could improve on his 4th place finish from last summer if he breaks the 51-barrier.

France’s Mehdy Metella swam a 51.70 at French Nationals this year to qualify for Rio, and his personal best 51.24 puts him in the mix for a top 8 finish. He swam that 51.24 at the 2015 World Championships where he placed 5th, just a nail ahead of Poland’s Konrad Czerniak, who finished in 51.28. Czerniak has already bettered that time this season, putting up a 51.22 at the 2016 European Championships to set himself up well for the Olympics.

The Italian duo of Piero Codia and Matteo Rivolta could make a push for a finals swim after taking the top 2 spots at Italian Nationals this year. Codia has been slightly better so far, clocking a 51.42 to place him 9th in the rankings, compared to Rivolta’s 51.54 for 11th. Sitting between the two is Russia’s Alexander Sadovnikov, who enters Rio with a 51.50 from 2016 Russian Nationals.

Men’s 100 Fly Top 8 Predictions:

Place Swimmer Country Best Time (Since 2012 Olympics) Predicted Time
1 Michael Phelps USA 50.45 50.3
2 Chad Le Clos RSA 50.56 50.4
3 Joseph Schooling SIN 50.96 50.7
4 Laszlo Cseh HUN 50.86 50.7
5 Tom Shields USA 51.03 50.9
6 Li Zhuhao CHN 51.24 51.1
7 Konrad Czerniak POL 51.22 51.1
8 Mehdy Metella FRA 51.24 51.2

Darkhorse: While better known for his backstroke talent, France’s Jeremy Stravius broke the French National Record with a 50.06 in the SCM version of the 100 fly in 2013, and has continued to progress his 100 fly in meters. Stravius will make an appearance in this event in Rio after clocking a 51.66 at the French Open Championships, and currently sits at 15th in the 2016 World Rankings.

Check out all of our 2016 Rio Olympic Previews here

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Joe
5 years ago

Nothing would make me more proud to be an American than to see Phelps take down LeClos

Billabong
Reply to  Joe
5 years ago

Le Clos is the obvious favourite, but he will be happy to have the Phelps assume the position. He likes nothing better than running down his prey on the final 25m. The old GOAT is no match for him.

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Billabong
5 years ago

Question, how is the goat no match for him? 50.45 > 50.56
If someone is going to be running down anybody it will be Phelps on Le Clos. Phelps is slower on the first 50m and much faster on the last 50. I don’t see anything obvious about it.

Billabong.
Reply to  SwimmerFoxJet
5 years ago

The obvious bit is that the old GOAT is Old, and getting slower.

Nate
Reply to  Billabong.
5 years ago

The 3 time Olympic gold medalist in this event with the second fastest time in the world for 2016 and the fastest time in the world for 2015 is definitely not the underdog to Le Clos going into Rio.

Billabong
Reply to  Nate
5 years ago

When Le Clos smokes the old GOAT, please don’t come out and tell us that age caught up with MP. The age differential is something that we know going into the competition. Please don’t bring it up as an excuse after the event. Take the whipping and give up on the senseless Phelpamania.

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Billabong
5 years ago

I would use his age. If Phelps in 2008 dropped the 400 IM and 200 free he would go 49.5 in the 100 fly. At least sub 50 textile. And if Phelps wins, I will still use his age. He is 31 vs a 23 year old. Thing is, if Le Clos did

Gold 400 IM
Very good leadoff for the 4×100 free relay
Gold 200 free
Gold 200 Fly
Very good leadoff on 4×200 free
200 IM Gold
100 Fly Gold
Very good fly leg on 4×100 m medley

World records in all but the 100 fly individually, then he would be equal to Phelps.
He only does 200 fly, 100 fly, 200 free and 100 free now right?

cheatinvlad
Reply to  SwimmerFoxJet
5 years ago

He’s only swimming the fly on the big stage. Not enough range in the big pool for leclos.

Cate
Reply to  Billabong
5 years ago

Phelpamania, Phelpamaia ! 😀

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Billabong.
5 years ago

Weren’t you the guy trash talking about him before SA? 51.00 100 fly with a long turn in the wall is no joke. Especially when he is not fully tapered.

Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen #1
Reply to  SwimmerFoxJet
5 years ago

Plot twist, Schooling wins.

Cate
Reply to  Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen #1
5 years ago

You called it!

cheatinvlad
Reply to  SwimmerFoxJet
5 years ago

That’s him. He just does it to get people wound up. He’s actual a huge Phelps fan

Cate
Reply to  Billabong.
5 years ago

I love reading these old predictions.

cheatinvlad
Reply to  Billabong
5 years ago

In the 100 leclos had the faster front half and the goat the faster back half. Go look up the times.

Philip Johnson
5 years ago

I think this is Cseh’s year. He will finally get that elusive Olympic gold.

Rafael
Reply to  Lauren Neidigh
5 years ago

What about Phelps double? 200 im final then soon 100 fly a 51,5 like on trials won’t let him final.

Pvdh
Reply to  Rafael
5 years ago

Mike will be far more rested and tapered for Rio. He will be fine for a gold in 20″I’m and medal at least in 100 fly

PVK
5 years ago

You can never doubt the GOAT.

Tom from Chicago
Reply to  PVK
5 years ago

Its not 2008.

bobthebuilderrocks
Reply to  Tom from Chicago
5 years ago

And?…..

bobthebuilderrocks
Reply to  bobthebuilderrocks
5 years ago

We aren’t expecting 8 gold medals, so yeah. It’s not 2008.

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  bobthebuilderrocks
5 years ago

Funny, we doubted him in 2008? Right? No? Well I was a little kid back then and in soccer, but you guys remember, right?? I mean, maybe 2007 did something… but….

Cate
Reply to  Tom from Chicago
5 years ago

2016 not too shabby 😉

thomaslurzfan
5 years ago

I hope that Deibler will make the final, he seems to be in a good spot with his 51.49 a couple of days ago and his best time since 2012 is 51.19 (in 2013).

Jiggs
Reply to  thomaslurzfan
5 years ago

Deibler’s not going. He needed a German national record in the 100 fly just to make the team.

thomaslurzfan
Reply to  Jiggs
5 years ago

What? He was officially nominated yesterday and will swim the 4×100 free relay and the medley relay 100% and i am sure that he will also be granted an individual swim. Sadly he wont swim the 100 free individually, Wierling and Hornikel will swim instead.

Tea rex
5 years ago

There’s never a shortage of armchair-psychiatry on Phelps, but I get the impression that he doesn’t really care what medals he wins in Rio. His legacy is cemented, and he almost seems looking forward to getting this over with and going on to coaching and fathering.

That can be a good thing though – enjoying the race without worrying too much about the result. More than any medal, I hope he feels satisfied with his effort – seemingly for the first time since Beijing.

No matter what happens, this definitely will be one of the top races to watch

marklewis
Reply to  Tea rex
5 years ago

No, it’s not true that he “really doesn’t care what medal he wins.”

At this OT, just look at his triumphalism (hands overhead, the spitting water thing he does).

He needs to win. He did not come back just to participate. The “enjoy the moment” stuff is BS, so don’t believe it.

swamfan
Reply to  Tea rex
5 years ago

even if he is more “grounded” than he was in the past, I still think he wants to win gold. He is extremely competitive, i’m pretty sure he hates to lose more than he loves to win.

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  swamfan
5 years ago

He also gets fired up when people say he can’t win. 2008 FTW just don’t doubt the Goat in your mind (I’m nervous). 2008 The French, Thorpe, and Cavic were wrong. Le Clos was wrong last year. So c’mon, let’s trash talk about him lol.

Cate
Reply to  Tea rex
5 years ago

He stated himself what is important to him in more than one interview, personal bests

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Cate
5 years ago

I think he would want the gold medal first, then the pbs and wrs.

Skoorbnagol
5 years ago

Going to call it.
It will be unpopular….
Phelps 4th.
Schooling – Chad – Cseh.

Quinn
Reply to  Skoorbnagol
5 years ago

It’ll be the other way around phelps cseh Chad and then schooling

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Quinn
5 years ago

Phelps 1 Chad 2 Cseh 3 Schooling 4

M Palota
Reply to  Skoorbnagol
5 years ago

Not popular but not unlikely. I’m picking the GOAT for the win and Schooling for second.

Going to be a hella race regardless.

Damiansport1
Reply to  Skoorbnagol
5 years ago

Lol Schooling is not happening even for medal. Big 3 is going to be in top3

Lauren Neidigh
Reply to  Damiansport1
5 years ago

Schooling is putting all his focus on this race. He has a great chance to medal

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  Lauren Neidigh
5 years ago

So is Chad. And Phelps is not going blind, but Cseh is tricky,.

Lauren Neidigh
Reply to  SwimmerFoxJet
5 years ago

Even if Chad wins, it doesn’t shut schooling out of a medal. He has a chance.

BollesBoy
Reply to  Skoorbnagol
5 years ago

Agree with you, Schooling will win the 100 even though he will get some fight from Chad. The only event where Phelps could win a medal is the 200 IM… sorry, but he is too old now, is not the same Phelps from 2008

Lauren Neidigh
Reply to  BollesBoy
5 years ago

The thing is, he doesn’t have to be 2008 Phelps. He proved that he was good enough to win this event less than a year ago.

Dawgpaddle
Reply to  BollesBoy
5 years ago

BOLLESBOY has a point. Phelps is the greatest ever, but even the greatest past his prime will not win this event so late in the Olympic format. The climate, stress, facility and great competition will take its toll. Not sure who wins but NOT Muhammad Ali Phelps.

SwimmerFoxJet
Reply to  BollesBoy
5 years ago

NOT THE SAME PHELPS. Tell him and Bob that. They said he was in the best shape of his life. Did you see the times he went last year?? 1:52.94 200 Fly
50.45 100 fly
200 IM 1:54.75
Those could all be gold medal times. One is an olympic record time.

Klorn8d
5 years ago

I think will get beat in the fly in rio. I see him as 4th or so in the 100 and 3rd at best in the 200. But I think he’ll win 200 IM

Klorn8d
Reply to  Klorn8d
5 years ago

This is phelps obviously, my bad

Quinn
Reply to  Klorn8d
5 years ago

Why?

Damiansport1
5 years ago

100 and 200 fly are gonna be battle royale. Cant wait. In both im predicting
1. Michael Phelps
2. Laszlo Csech
3. Chad Le Clos

About Lauren Neidigh

Lauren Neidigh

Lauren Neidigh is a former NCAA swimmer at the University of Arizona (2013-2015) and the University of Florida (2011-2013). While her college swimming career left a bit to be desired, her Snapchat chin selfies and hot takes on Twitter do not disappoint. She's also a high school graduate of The …

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