Olympic Odds To Defend: Revisiting The Tokyo Olympics

This article originally appeared in the 2024 Olympic Preview edition of SwimSwam Magazine, courtesy of author James Sutherland. Subscribe to the SwimSwam Magazine here.

Coming into the Tokyo Olympic Games, there was uncertainty about, both in the world and in the swimming-verse.

In the lead-up, we did our best to gauge the chances the champions from Rio had at defending their titles, just like we’re doing for Paris.

Coming into the 2024 Games, we have a more accurate pulse on where everyone is. Both with the short three-year window between Olympics and the jam-packed international schedule we’ve had compared to the desolate COVID calendar.

The five-year gap from Rio to Tokyo resulted in not too many repeating champions, with us offering some odds that were maybe too favorable.

Below, find the odds we gave each swimmer of defending, and how things panned out for them three years ago.

KATIE LEDECKY, WOMEN’S 800 FREE

ODDS: 1/5 (83.3 percent)

RESULT: GOLD

Ledecky successfully made it three in a row in the 800 free, but it was a lot closer than we thought it was going to be. The American was nowhere near her best in Tokyo, but still emerged with the gold medal in 8:12.57, edging out Ariarne Titmus (8:13.83).

ADAM PEATY, MEN’S 100 BREAST

ODDS: 1/5  (83.3 percent)

RESULT: GOLD

Peaty would not be denied a second consecutive gold medal in the men’s 100 breast. Although Dutchman Arno Kamminga joined Peaty in the sub-58 club prior to the Games (and went 57.80 in the prelims), Peaty won gold by more than six-tenths in a time of 57.37.

LILLY KING, WOMEN’S 100 BREAST

ODDS: 1/3 (75.0 percent)

RESULT: BRONZE

Lilly King was a dominant force in the 100 breast prior to Tokyo, going undefeated in the event coming out of the Rio Games with consecutive world titles and a new world record. She was challenged by upstart teenager Lydia Jacoby at the U.S. Olympic Trials, and then in the Olympic final, it was Jacoby who snagged the gold medal, going a time (1:04.95) slower than what King went at the Trials (1:04.79) and what Tatjana Smith (Schoenmaker) went in the Tokyo prelims (1:04.82).

KATINKA HOSSZU, WOMEN’S 400 IM

ODDS: 1/2 (66.7 percent)

RESULT: 5th

In the 2021 Olympic Preview Issue, we said that “a strong, young field is nipping at (Hosszu’s) heels” in the 400 IM, but it would still “take a huge performance (Yui Ohashi?) to dethrone.” As it turns out, Ohashi won gold and age caught up to Hosszu, who was well off the swims she had been churning out in previous years.

GREGORIO PALTRINIERI, MEN’S 1500 FREE

ODDS: 1/2 (66.7 percent)

RESULT: 4th

Paltrinieri lost his world title in the 1500 free in 2019, but reasserted himself as the man to beat in Tokyo when he logged the second-fastest time in history in 2020, clocking 14:33.10. The Italian was dealt a tough hand in the Olympic lead-up, fighting off mono just one month out of the Games, and as a result he faded to fourth. It means nothing in the grand scheme of things, but his 2020 time was more than six seconds faster than what won gold.

SARAH SJOSTROM, WOMEN’S 100 FLY

ODDS: 2/1 (33.3 percent)

RESULT: 7th

There was uncertainty about whether or not Sjostrom would even race the 100 fly in Tokyo after elbow surgery early in the year kept her out of the water for an extended period of time and prevented her from swimming butterfly even longer. Sjostrom ended up racing it, and had a great swim in the heats, but even if she had matched that in the final, she would’ve only been fifth after we saw four women come within a quarter of a second of the world record. Maggie MacNeil, who beat Sjostrom at the 2019 Worlds, emerged with gold.

RYAN MURPHY, MEN’S 100 BACK

ODDS: 2/1 (33.3 percent)

RESULT: BRONZE

We said Murphy would need to be back under 52 seconds to have a chance at another gold in the men’s 100 back, and that checked out as Russians (representing the Russian Olympic Committee) Evgeny Rylov (51.98) and Kliment Kolesnikov (52.00) went 1-2 and Murphy settled for bronze in 52.19. With the Russian absence in Paris, Murphy has a very good chance of reclaiming his title.

PERNILLE BLUME, WOMEN’S 50 FREE

ODDS: 7/1 (12.5 percent)

RESULT: BRONZE

The women’s 50 free was projected to be a shootout between five or six women in Tokyo, and though Blume wasn’t the frontrunner based on recent performances, she was in the hunt. Emma McKeon ended up winning gold by a relatively wide margin, though Blume performed about as expected and snagged bronze.

KYLE CHALMERS, MEN’S 100 FREE

ODDS: 6/4 (40.0 percent)

RESULT: SILVER

In 2021, we said the men’s 100 free was close to a coinflip between two-time world champion Caeleb Dressel and defending Olympic champion Kyle Chalmers, and that’s how the race turned out. At the 2019 Worlds, Dressel edged Chalmers by 12 one-hundredths, and then two years later in Tokyo, his margin of victory was cut in half. Dressel won gold in a time of 47.02, while Chalmers claimed silver in 47.08.

JOSEPH SCHOOLING, MEN’S 100 FLY

ODDS: 200/1 (0.5 percent)

RESULT: 44th

Schooling is still Singapore’s only Olympic champion in history, but after winning gold in Rio and beating his idol Michael Phelps, his motivation slowly dimmed, especially once his collegiate career at the University of Texas was over. Schooling’s time from the prelims in Tokyo (53.12) was more than three and a half seconds slower than the world record Caeleb Dressel set en route to gold (49.45).