As we turn the chapter to 2025, it’s also a good time to reflect upon 2024. In this article, we take a look at the wild predictions that our writers made at the beginning of 2024 and see how well they aged. These predictions were split up into two sections: wild predictions that seemed unlikely but plausible, as well as “alter ego takes” that were more egregious and didn’t have much to do with swimming.
Unlike 2023 where four of the 13 wild predictions (and one out of the five alter ego takes) were correct, this year was a rather off year for the SwimSwam staff. Only one of the 12 wild predictions was partially correct, and the second part of Anya’s somewhat correct prediction didn’t come to fruition. Only Braden’s alter ego take about me going viral on Twitter for something unrelated to swimming was fully correct.
Wild Prediction Results
Braden: Ollie Morgan wins two backstroke medals at the Olympics.
INCORRECT: Morgan came home with zero hardware. In actuality, he finished 8th in the 100 back and 12th in the 200 back.
YanYan: We will get a 50-point women’s 100 free relay split.
INCORRECT: The fastest women’s 100 free replay split recorded this year was a 51.83 from Australia’s Mollie O’Callaghan.
Riley: Ilya Kharun will win Olympic gold in Paris
INCORRECT: Kharun took two bronzes in the 100 fly and 200 fly.
Anya: Gretchen Walsh opts to swim the 100 fly instead of 100 back. Walsh officially breaks Kate Douglass‘ American record while the NCAA 100 back champion breaks Walsh’s 100 back record.
PARTIALLY CORRECT: Walsh did swim the 100 fly over the 100 back at 2024 NCAAs, and she broke Douglass’ record. However, Katharine Berkoff, the 100 back NCAA champ, was short of Walsh’s record in the event.
Nicole: The US women won’t have any individual gold medalists in Paris minus Katie Ledecky.
INCORRECT: Kate Douglass and Torri Huske both won individual gold alongside Ledecky. It was the American men who only had one individual gold medalist — Bobby Finke.
Mark: Despite using a male breaststroker at 2023 Worlds, the US will revert to a female breaststroker for the Olympics. (Bonus points for saying they won’t medal?)
INCORRECT: The Americans used Nic Fink on breaststroke in the mixed medley relay and won gold in world record fashion.
Sophie: Siobhan Haughey wins 100/200 free double gold in Paris
INCORRECT: Haughey took bronze in both events.
Reid: Multiple men go sub-3:40 in the 400 freestyle and a 3:58 misses the podium in the women’s 400 freestyle.
INCORRECT: It took a 3:41.78 to win gold in the men’s 400 free, and a 4:00.86 took bronze in the women’s 400 free.
Retta: Korean men will get 4×2 bronze in Paris
INCORRECT: Australia took bronze in the men’s 4×200 free relay at the Olympics.
Laura: Someone not named Derek Maas swims a D1 scoring time at D3 NCAAs.
INCORRECT: This did not happen — Maas was the only one who pulled off this feat.
Barry: Last year, Barry said “LeBron James buys the LA Current helping kickstart the ISL, nevertheless, the LA Current will once again finish fourth.” This year, Barry has continued his hot take saying, “I’m still holding out on Lebron next year!”
INCORRECT: Yeah, no.
James: China wins more gold medals in the pool than the U.S.
INCORRECT: The United States won eight gold medals in pool swimming at the 2024 Olympics, while China won two.
Alter Ego Predictions
Mark: The US women’s team at 2024 Worlds will win 10 more medals than at the Olympics, despite unlikely having relays.
INCORRECT: The American women won seven medals at 2024 Worlds, while they won 17 at the Olympics. So essentially the reverse happened.
Reid: Taylor Swift buys the ISL and season 4 takes place entirely at Arrowhead Stadium (GEHA).
INCORRECT: Nope.
YanYan: Margot Robbie will win best lead actress at the 2024 Oscars for Barbie and shoutout the Australian swimming team in her acceptance speech
INCORRECT: Robbie wasn’t even nominated for best actress.
Braden: Yanyan goes viral on Twitter for something not involving swimming.
CORRECT: So this one ended up being the only correct prediction. During the Olympics, I made a tweet praising Laurie Hernandez‘s commentary for the women’s gymnastics events, which received over 18,000 likes. The threshold for “viral” is subjective, but I’d say that 18k meets it.
The funny thing is that my friends at college had a 2024 Bingo, where one of the boxes was “someone in the group goes viral on X (formerly known).” That was the last box I needed to check off before getting Bingo, and going viral several times during Olympics season allowed me to be the first one to get bingo by a significant margin.
Laurie Hernandez is such a good commentator for women’s gymnastics. She does a great job of explaining really specific technicalities of the sport while also weaving in important narratives. This is how you get people interested in the sport beyond a surface level
— Yanyan Li (@yyanyanli1) July 30, 2024
Is there anything Yanyan can’t do?
2025 tepid takes:
McIntosh takes 4IM to 4:22
McIntosh takes 2FL to 2:02
McIntosh breaks 200 IM WR with 2:05
McIntosh goes 2:04 high in 2BK
Walsh lowers 100 FL to 54
Walsh goes beow 24.8 in 50 FL
Walsh swims 52 low in 100 FR
Walsh swims 23.7 in 50 FR
#2 and #4 are so safe
Kharun winning two bronze medals feels like it would have been nearly as bold a prediction as one gold. Partial credit there imo
The top 100 lists should start in the next couple of weeks no? Quite a few Australians are gonna be tough to place in those lists with so many having lengthy breaks and question marks over their focus this year.