2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES
- Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
- Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
- La Défense Arena — Paris, France
- LCM (50 meters)
- Meet Central
- Full Schedule
- SwimSwam Preview Index
Swimming competition begins in Paris in just five days from now, kicking off on July 27th. There will be nine days of competition at La Défense Arena.
Like the women’s side, we’ve put together a list of the predictability of the podium in Paris. We also have more detailed previews of each event in our preview index.
BARRING UPSET, THIS IS THE PODIUM
- Men’s 200 fly: Leon Marchand, Kristof Milak, and Tomoru Honda seem to have a lock on the podium. They might get a run for their money from youngsters Thomas Heilman and Ilya Kharun but the 3 seem to be a step ahead of the field.
- Men’s 800 free: Sam Short, Daniel Wiffen, and Bobby Finke appear to be the leaders of the event. The three are the only entries under the 7:40 mark and have a 2.5 second difference over the rest of the field.
FOUR FIGHTING IT OUT FOR THREE MEDALS
- Men’s 400 IM: Leon Marchand is the clear favorite as the World Record holder and holds the fastest time of the field by three seconds. Behind Marchand sits Carson Foster, Chase Kalisz, and Lewis Clareburt. Clareburt had a huge swim to win gold at 2024 Worlds, may his momentum pull him to another international medal?
- Men’s 50 free: The 50 free posted a debate for the SwimSwam preview on podium picks but with the speed of the splash and dash, a tie might help figure out the “three medal” situation. A three way tie for silver (cough cough Phelps, Le Close, Cseh) or a tie for bronze. Cam McEvoy, Florent Manaudou, Caeleb Dressel, and Ben Proud seem to be the favorites all with best times in the 21-low range while the rest of the field is at least two-tenths behind.
- Men’s 100 breast: This one is more of a 5 swimmers battling for three medals. Like the 50 free, a tie would be the solution. It happened last summer as Nic Fink, Arno Kamminga, and Nicolo Martinenghi tied for silver behind Qin Haiyang. The biggest difference is Adam Peaty joining the picture again.
- Men’s 200 back: This event borders the first category but Keaton Jones seems to throw a curveball here adding a 4th contender. Ryan Murphy will look to win the Olympic title but will face Hubert Kos and Hugo Gonzalez as well.
- Men’s 100 free: This one seems like a toss up. It’s got two World Record holders with David Popovici and Pan Zhanle, the 2016 Champion Kyle Chalmers, and hometown favorite Maxime Grousset.
- Men’s 400 free: This event has greatly improved over the last Olympic cycle and Lukas Martens, Sam Short, Elijah Winnington, and Kim Woo-min seem to be the 4 leaders although Felix Auboeck could also throw his name into the mix.
- Men’s 1500 free: Bobby Finke seems to be the favorite but Daniel Wiffen, Gregorio Paltrinieri, and Florian Wellbrock are also in the mix.
THE WINNER IS CLEAR. THE REST?
- Men’s 200 free: David Popovici seems to be the clear favorite and could potentially break the World Record. After Popovici, it could be Luke Hobson, Lukas Martens, Hwang Sunwoo, Duncan Scott, or Matthew Richards.
- Men’s 200 IM: Leon Marchand enters as a favorite, but a smaller favorite than the 400 IM. Behind him, it could be Carson Foster, Shaine Casas, Duncan Scott, or Wang Shun.
CHAOS PENDING
- Men’s 100 back: Xu Jiayu leads the way this season but Ryan Murphy, Hunter Armstrong, Thomas Ceccon, and Apostolos Christou are right behind.
- Men’s 200 breast: Matt Fallon posted an American Record at US Trials to lead the World this season. Leon Marchand is entered in the event with the 200 fly double for now. Qin Haiyang won the event at 2023 Worlds and is also in the field.
- Men’s 100 fly: Caeleb Dressel is looking better everyday and enters as the World Record holder but did not swim at Worlds last year as he missed the US team after his time away from the pool. Kristof Milak also has spent time out of the pool but seems to be improving but the field also features Noe Ponti, Josh Liendo, and Maxime Grousset to name a few.
These articles are always fun to come back to a few weeks later. This list seems like it has a few major omissions, but also three years ago a similar article would’ve been talking about 3-event medalist Daiya Seto, and names like Ahmed Hafnaoui, Bobby Finke, Jeremey Desplanches, or Matti Matson would be nowhere to be seen. I can’t wait to see what random swimmer from East Timor or Brunei ends up making a podium and screwing up the pick’ems
Leon Marchand is not the prohibitive favorite in the M 200 IM when the gold medalist from the 2020 Summer Olympics has posted the fastest time (1:55.35) in calendar year 2024. In addition, the M 200 IM is scheduled on Days 6 & 7 when exhaustion will definitely be a factor for Leon Marchand (400 IM, 200 BR, 200 FL, 4 x 100 FR-R?, 4 x 200 FR-R?).
I won’t put 200 fly in the ‘BARRING UPSET, THIS IS THE PODIUM’ category.
I had a hard time picking the bronze medal in my pick’em. Chmielewski beat Honda last year at the World Championships. Young guys like Kharun and Heilman are up and coming. And Honda had a foot injury this year. The medal is far from given.
And how could 100 free be put in the ‘4 fighting for 3 medals’ category? 4 IM, 1 breast, 2 back and the mile are also very arguable.
Alexy, Guiliano (100 free), Seto, Matsushita (400 IM), Somov (100 breast), Ceccon (200 back), Tuncelli, Short (1500 free) are all among medal favorites in my opinion. I didn’t pick all of them but really had difficulty ruling them out.
I’m not sure 200 IM winner is clear at all. Should’ve been 400 IM in this category.
Funny because I actually have ZSC winning Gold
As for the 400 IM, the omission of Daiya Seto shows a total lack of respect for the bronze medalist at the 2023/2024 World Aquatics Championships.
NEVER IGNORE THE ZSC
200fly.
1.Milak 2.Marchand 3.Heilman
800free
1.Finke 2.Wiffen 3.Short
50fr
1.Dressel 2.McEvoy 3.Guiliano
100br
1.Peaty 2.Qin 3.Fink
100back
1.Murphy 2.Armstrong 3.Ceccon
200back
1.Murphy 2.Kos 3.Jones
100fly
1.Dressel 2.Milak 3.Liendo
200br
1. Fallon 2. Marchand 3.Qin
100free
1.Popovici 2.Alexy 3. Giuliano
400 IM
1.Marchand 2. Kalisz 3. Foster
200Im
1. Marchand 2.Foster 3. Kalisz
1500
Finke, Wiffen
200fr
1.Popovic 2. Hobson 3. Martens
400fr.
1. Short 2. Kim 3. Shackell
Kalisz isn’t swimming 2im so the odds of him medaling are ZERO!
Oops…Should be Casas.
My predictions:
Gold medal
1. Men 100m freestyle – Pan Zhanle
2. Men 200m IM – Wang Shun
3. Men 100m breastroke – Qin Haiyang
4. Men 200m breastroke – Qin Haiyang
5: Men 100m backstroke – Xu Jiayu
6. Men 4x100m freestyle relay – China
7. Men 4x100m medley relay – China
Plus 8. Mixed 4x100m medley relay – China
totally unbiased takes
Best scenario for men’s hemisphere of China, if only it could be true.
#5 & 6 are of limited chance, esp. #6, where either the US or Aussies should be atop.
Zajprah to the Chinese swim team