It’s a bittersweet week. While the world, and by extension the sport of swimming, is starting to emerge from weeks of pandemic-related shutdown, we also face the absence of the season that would-have-been. With U.S. Olympic Trials originally scheduled for this week, we’re taking a day-by-day trip into the hypothetical, analyzing the events that would have happened each day, along with our predictions of how the Olympic roster would have formed, had the season not been halted in the pandemic.
These won’t be full-length previews, and won’t be exhaustive in naming every top contender for the U.S. Olympic team. Our picks will be what we expected to happen in June of 2020, had the season not been shut down at all amid the pandemic. Our 2021 predictions will almost certainly be different when we get closer to the Trials themselves. Feel free to add your own predictions – for both the 2020 Trials and the rescheduled Trials in 2021 – in the comments.
Men’s 100 fly final
Caeleb Dressel‘s 100 fly has always seemed to perform slightly better than his 100 free when he’s not fully rested. That holds up today, as Dressel blasts a 50.2 to erase a 2009 Michael Phelps U.S. Open record. With a 50 free semifinal coming up later in the session, fans are buzzing about just how much Dressel was holding back in this first swim.
His former Florida teammate Maxime Rooney, now training out of Texas after a huge senior year in the NCAA, joins him in the 50-points for the second Olympic spot in the only men’s final tonight.
Women’s 200 back final
If last summer was the breakout for Regan Smith, you could call this week her coronation. After an absurd 56.9 in the 100 back, Smith goes 2:02.8 in the 200 back, her second world record of the week. It’s been an incredible rise for Smith, who was 2:07.1 back in 2017, 2:06.4 the next year to earn a Worlds bid, then 2:03.3 last summer at Worlds.
Kathleen Baker had a bit of a disappointing showing in this event at 2019 Worlds, getting clipped out of contention in the semifinals. But she challenged her career-best with an in-season 2:06.4 at the Des Moines Pro Swim Series in early 2020 and parlays a season of good health into another Olympic berth with a solid second behind Smith.
Women’s 800 free final
What a whirlwind session of Team USA’s biggest stars. Katie Ledecky is the third world record-holder to lead an event on day 7. There’s really no reason for Ledecky to put the pedal to the metal here, but she cruises a pretty easy 8:13 and now owns the 23 fastest swims in history in this event. If she can best the former world record (8:14.10 by Rebecca Adlington in 2008) in both of her swims in Tokyo, Ledecky could own the entire top 25 performances in history list.
Leah Smith takes second, though 1500 free qualifier Erica Sullivan makes it more of a race than we expected.
Other events today:
- Men’s 50 free semifinal – In the second half of his double, Caeleb Dressel wins a semifinal in a smooth 21.5. But his 17-18 NAG record is also under threat, as 18-year-old David Curtiss goes 21.7.
- Women’s 50 free semifinal – Same story on the women’s side: Simone Manuel looks unstoppable with a pair of 24-lows in heats and semis. But Gretchen Walsh breaks Manuels’ 17-18 NAG record of 24.56.
Olympic Team As Of Tonight:
Women:
- Melanie Margalis (400 IM, 200 IM)
- Kelsi Dahlia (100 FL)
- Katie Ledecky (400 FR, 200 FR, 1500 FR, 800 FR, 4×200 FRR)
- Regan Smith (100 BK, 200 FL, 200 BK)
- Lilly King (100 BR)
- Simone Manuel (200 FR 100 FR, 4×200 FRR, 4×100 FRR)
- Katie McLaughlin (4×200 FRR)
- Paige Madden (4×200 FRR)
- Hali Flickinger (200 FL)
- Mallory Comerford (100 FR, 4×100 FRR)
- Abbey Weitzeil (4×00 FRR)
- Gretchen Walsh (4×100 FRR)
- Brooke Forde (400 IM)
- Torri Huske (100 FL)
- Leah Smith (400 FR, 800 FR 4×200 FRR)
- Kathleen Baker (100 BK, 200 BK)
- Annie Lazor (100 BR, 200 BR)
- Alex Walsh (200 IM)
- Erica Sullivan (1500 FR)
- Bethany Galat (200 BR)
- Gabby DeLoof (4×200 FRR)
- Erika Brown (4×100 FRR)
- Margo Geer (4×100 FRR)
Men:
- Chase Kalisz (400 IM, 200 IM)
- Zane Grothe (400 FR, 800 FR)
- Andrew Wilson (100 BR, 200 BR)
- Blake Pieroni (200 FR, 4×200 FRR, 4×100 FRR)
- Andrew Seliskar (200 FR, 4×200 FRR)
- Zach Apple (4×200 FRR, 4×100 FRR)
- Townley Haas (4×200 FRR)
- Ryan Murphy (100 BK, 200 BK)
- Luca Urlando (200 FL)
- Caeleb Dressel (100 FR 100 FL, 4×100 FRR, 4×200 FRR)
- Ryan Held (100 FR, 4×100 FRR)
- Jay Litherland (400 IM)
- Kieran Smith (400 FR, 4×200 FRR)
- Cody Miller (100 BR)
- Matt Grevers (100 BK)
- Nicolas Albiero (200 FL)
- Bobby Finke (800 FR)
- Will Licon (200 BR)
- Shaine Casas (200 BK)
- Michael Andrew (200 IM)
- Maxime Rooney (100 FL)
- Nathan Adrian (4×100 FRR)
- Dean Farris (4×100 FRR)
With just two individual qualifying spots left for the women (both 50 free spots), the roster will not go over the 26-person roster cap. That means everyone on the above list would be selected. The men will get all qualifiers in so long as one of tomorrow’s four qualifying spots (two in the 50 free, two in the 1500 free) goes to someone already qualified in a different event.
I don’t see michael Andrew beating out seliskar in the 200 IM
What is the current rule on swimming a time trial to be eligible for a relay?
https://olympics.nbcsports.com/2016/06/26/michael-phelps-drops-200m-freestyle-trials/
No Conger?? @desorboeffect 👀 👀
Underrated 800 race expect to see a much closer race if 8:13 makes the top spot. I can see Sullivan going 8:15 and Ledecky needing a gut check last 50 to get away from her.
Wow, you guys aren’t showing Michael Andrew any respect in the “what if Olympic trials.”
In the 100 fly, Dressel shows off his revamped start technique. He jumps off the block, flying the entire pool length. In about 2 seconds, he makes a perfect landing, nailing the touchpad at the turn end. Now he turns, kicks to exactly the 15, and swims the 2nd 50 at 50 pace, splitting 22.00 seconds. The world record in the event is lowered to 24.00 seconds.
Before the women’s 200 back, the starter turns into a monster and eats all of the backstroke ledges. Regan Smith still manages to nail a time of 1:47.93.
In the women’s 800 free, Greg Meehan enters Simone Manuel in the event at the last minute. He clones her 16 times. Each clone swims… Read more »
Nice!
Random serious thought inspired by this: what if two people tied for third place in finals? That would be the most intense yet disheartening swim off. If I were one of them and were on the team I would probably scratch for the other person’s sake (assuming they weren’t also on the team, of course)
You mean second place?
Yup
To open day 7, US President Rowdy Gaines ascends through the bottom of the pool via a skylift with a bald eagle on his shoulder. “Ladies and gentlemen,” he announces, “I will open this session by singing the National Anthem.” The 15,000 audience members beg him to stop, but he proceeds anyways. As the song continues, all 15,000 attendees exit the stadium, leaving the athletes to compete in an empty venue.
Caeleb Dressel smashes his world record in the 100 fly, going a 48.7. Guest swimmer Michael Phelps, looking to avenge his Rio silver, follows close behind in a personal best of 49.2.
In the women’s 200m backstroke, Regan Smith stuns everyone by being the first female to break… Read more »
Nice job; I think you covered all of the bases. “US President Rowdy Gaines” has a nice touch to it. It is certainly better than “former TV pitchman Billy Mays’ sidekick Rowdy Gaines,” or “Local Walmart Greeter Rowdy Gaines.” Best wishes to all — especially Jared for thinking of these counterfactual results!
Rowdy KO’ing himself every session is gold.
Guest swimmer????? LOL LOL LOL LOL Classic!
Predictions. This night is easier to predict, I’m practically predicting very similar things as Swimswam:
MEN’S 100 FLY: I pretty much agree with Swimswam, Dressel wins with a 50.2 with eyes on the Olympics. Rooney is just off his best time with a 50.75 for 2nd, but Tom Shields puts up a good fight and also breaks 51.
WOMEN’S 200 BACK: Regan Smith cruises to a 2:04 low to win. Baker does her first 2:05, with a 2:05.9 to get second, in this comeback season for her.
WOMEN’S 800 FREE: Ledecky takes an easy win with a 8:12. Leah Smith goes 8:17 for second.
MEN’S 50 FREE SEMIS: Dressel takes the top seed with a 21.3,… Read more »