2024 U.S. Olympic Trials: Katie Ledecky Poised to Make 4th Olympic Team (Day 1 Finals Preview)

2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS

• June 15-23, 2024
• Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
• LCM (50 Meters)
• Session Start Times (ET):
  • 11 a.m. Prelims
  • 7:45 p.m. Finals (varying based on broadcast needs)
• Meet Central
• Broadcast Info
• SwimSwam’s Definitive Guide to Trials
• Psych Sheets
• Live Results
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• SwimSwam Pick ’em Contest
• Day 1 Prelims Heat Sheet | Day 1 Prelims Live Recap

The first (up to) four names will be named to the U.S. Olympic Team tonight after the finals of the men’s and 400 freestyle. There will also be some jostling for position in the 100 stroke events. The order of events is as follows:

• Women’s 100 Butterfly — Semifinals
• Men’s 400 Freestyle — Finals
• Women’s 400 Freestyle — Finals
• Men’s 100 Breaststroke — Semifinals

Ledecky Poised to Make Fourth Olympic Team

To no one’s surprise, Katie Ledecky claimed the top seed in the women’s 400 free. Though she’s no longer as dominant as she once was in this event on the international stage, domestically her reign is still unchallenged. No other American woman has been under the 4:00-barrier before, and in prelims Ledecky made it a career 29th career outing with a 3:59.99. As we’ve gotten used to throughout her career, she’s as close to a lock as we’ll see to make her fourth Olympic team.

Behind Ledecky, Paige Madden is in position to qualify for her second Olympics. She was 1.81-seconds off her best time this morning (4:04.83), recently set at the NOVA Speedo Grand Challenge. Her time of 4:03.02 from May crushed her best from Tokyo, where she swam 4:03.98 in the heats. If Madden can carry that momentum into the final tonight, she could challenge the 4:00-barrier.

There were a flurry of scratches in the top eight, with Erin Gemmell and Katie Grimes both bowing out. That adds veteran Leah Smith into the final heat, who seems to have signaled retirement is eminent. Smith is also fighting back from a torn labrum suffered last January, but she is the second fastest American woman in history.

Those scratches also gave 16-year-old Kayla Han a finals berth. This is Han’s second Olympic Trials, though her first experience was a scaled back affair as USA Swimming split the meet into two waves to accommodate Covid-19 prevention measures. There, she finished 9th in the 400 IM. She shaved a bit of time off her entry time, which was also her personal best, to sneak under 4:10 for the first time (4:09.96). Regardless of if she makes the Olympic team or not, Han looks to be on the cusp of a great meet.

Jillian Cox had a strong swim in the final heat, finishing second to Ledecky (4:06.35). She shaved 25-hundredths of a second off her best time from last summer, a good sign heading into tonight.

Aurora Roghair (4:09.67) and Anna Peplowski (4:09.87) were also in that final heat. Both have been a touch faster in their careers.

Rounding out the field for tonight is Madi Mintenko, who shaved just over half of a second off her entry time to qualify 4th. Mintenko is the defending World Junior silver medalist, so she has some experience performing under pressure.

How High Can Walsh Fly?

After a record-breaking NCAA season, the question on everyone’s minds regarding Gretchen Walsh was: but can she do it in long course?

That question was answered in the second circle-seeded heat with a resounding 55.94. Despite having the slowest reaction time of her heat (0.75), Walsh rocketed out to 26.22 at the 50 and didn’t look back, extending her lead down the stretch to become the #6 performer of all time.

The next question we should ask: how much faster can she go? At NCAAs, Walsh got faster at night in each of her individual events, and while it’s just semis tonight, the pressure is on to secure a top eight finish and the chance to vie for an Olympic berth.

American record-holder Torri Huske was also firing this morning, though to slightly lower heights. She clocked 56.26 to win the final heat and was actually out faster than Walsh to the 50 (26.17). She’s been exactly three-tenths faster than Walsh and has already shown 55-form this season, but we’ll have to wait until finals to see them head-to-head.

Regan Smith had the fastest back-half of the field to pull past her new Longhorn teammates Kelly Pash (57.66) and Emma Sticklen (58.22). She’s seeded 3rd (56.68) after prelims. She’s shown rapid improvement in this event over the past year and will be one to watch throughout the rounds as she seems the most likely swimmer to disrupt the Walsh-Huske party.

There will be a strong Longhorn presence in semis tonight, as Smith, Pash (5th), Sticklen (9th), Olivia Bray (58.67, 14th), and Dakota Luther (58.73, 16th) will all feature tonight.

The second qualifier from Tokyo, Claire Curzan, got a little lost in the wash of 58-point swims (58.17, 7th). As she’s turned her attention towards the backstroke events her butterfly has lagged behind, but she does hold a season best of 56.64 from her silver medal performance in Doha. If she’s in 56 form here, she should be a lock for the final.

There’s a trio of junior swimmers who will swim in their first Olympic Trials semifinal tonight. Of the three, Alex Shackell is seeded the highest after hitting a PB in the heats (57.07, 4th). Shackell got her first senior team experience last summer in Fukuoka where she anchored the U.S.’s silver medal 800 freestyle relay. She climbed from 9th to 8th all-time and is knocking at the door of a 56-second swim, a time only seven other American women have ever achieved.

Leah Shackley (58.47, 11th) and Charlotte Crush (58.68, 15th) are the other two junior swimmers in for tonight. Crush hit a best time while Shackley has been as fast as 57.98 in her career.

Beata Nelson is 6th out of prelims with a best time (57.68), after dipping under 58 for the first time earlier this May. If she can find another drop again, she’ll be in a strong position to make the second Olympic Trials final of her career.

Luke Whitlock Breaks Out; 3rd American Man Under OQT in 400 Free (This Season)

There are now three (3) (that’s three) men under the Olympic Qualifying Standard in the men’s 400 freestyle, something we fretted about in our event previews and has been on everyone’s mind since watching Jake Mitchell punch his Tokyo ticket in a time trial.

To some fans surprise, it wasn’t Kieran Smith or David Johnston who swam under the stiff 3:46.78 standard this morning, but a new up-and-comer: Luke Whitlock.

Whitlock, an 18-year-old Florida commit, rocketed himself up to #2 17-18 all time with a huge personal best in the heats. Last May he clocked 3:49.10 for a new personal best, and in the final heat he lowered that time to 3:46.42. He beat Johnston to the touch (3:47.17) and will have the center lane tonight.

His swim should light a fire under the rest of the field, particularly Smith who is lurking back in 6th (3:48.25). Smith earned a bronze medal in this event in Tokyo, but hasn’t earned an individual international medal since, at least not in long course.

Jake Mitchell, Aaron Shackell, and Jake Magahey finished just four-tenths apart, taking the 3rd, 4th, and 5th spots out of prelims. All three men have been faster in their careers, and if they’re all on form it could be a dogfight to the finish.

Bobby Finke was 8th out of prelims. While he’s better known for his prowess in the longer distance events, we’ve seen him play spoiler before. He was just off his best time (3:48.63), and that was without his signature closing 50. He was “only” 29.14 to the wall, but he just might lack the raw speed to really move up the rankings.

We almost had the exact field picked in our preview, but Drew Kibler’s scratch last night played spoiler. Instead, the eighth man in the final is Daniel Matheson, another distance specialist like Finke who is swimming down to this distance. He shaved a couple tenths off his entry time to qualify in 7th (3:48.57).

The Quest for 58 Seconds

The state of men’s sprint breaststroke will not only be important for the U.S.’s individual medal chances, but also for the 400 medley relay, where they are the defending Olympic champions and world record holders.

Nic Fink led of a quintet of 59-point swims this morning in the men’s 100 breaststroke (59.24). He’s right about where he was in 2021 (59.21) before scorching a then-PB 58.50 in semis. He settled for 3rd in the final, but has since picked up Worlds bronze, silver, and finally gold in Doha.

The American record holder Michael Andrew made it through to semis in 59.72, the last of the 59-points. There’s been some questions regarding Andrew’s form as of late, but after news broke that he dropped the 200 IM from his schedule we can be slightly more assured that he’s all-in on the shorter events. He was much faster in prelims three years ago, but added time in finals.

The rest of the 59s come from Josh Matheny (59.34), Charlie Swanson (59.44), and Jake Foster (59.59).

Liam Bell and Brian Benzing had big prelims swims to break 1:01 for the first time in their careers. If they can ride that momentum tonight, they could also dip in barrier-breaking territory.

Keep an eye out for Danny Kovac, who won a swim-off for 16th this morning. After clocking 1:00.80 in the heats, already a big PB, he found another drop to 1:00.47.

In between, the field is tightly bunched, but there’s the talent present to get a lot faster.