2024 Paris Olympic Day 1 Relay Speculation: The Americans Have a Conundrum (4×100 Free)

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

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The first prelims session of swimming at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games is in the books, and with the finals of the 4×100 freestyle relay tonight, some teams will have some interesting decisions to make regarding their lineups.

Let’s go team by to team to speculate on which quartets will get the nod for the big final tonight.

Women’s 4×100 Free Relay

Australia – 3:31.57

The Australian women need no introduction in this event. They went with youngster Olivia Wunsch (53.94) and veteran Bronte Campbell (53.46) on the front half of their relay this morning. Meg Harris (52.23) and Emma McKeon (51.94) made up the back half.

The swap here is very straight forward: the Australians have Mollie O’Callaghan and Shayna Jack on the bench, who joined Harris and McKeon on the world record relay in 2023. The pair hold flat-start bests of 52.08 and 52.28 respectively, and Jack has split 51-point multiple times off a flying start.

USA – 3:33.29

Here’s where things get interesting. The Americans easily qualified 2nd this morning with Abbey Weitzeil (53.60), Simone Manuel (53.23), Erika Connolly (née Brown) (53.83), and Kate Douglass (52.63).

Douglass is an easy bye into the final. She won the 100 free at US Trials, but ended up dropping the individual event from her schedule. She left no room for doubt this morning, dropping the fastest split of the team by 0.6-seconds.

The Americans have Torri Huske and Gretchen Walsh on the bench, who swam prelims of the 100 butterfly at the start of the session. They qualified 3rd and 4th respectively. The pair are also the U.S.’s individual entrants in the 100 free, so they should join Douglass tonight.

The fourth woman is between Weitzeil and Manuel. Both swimmers made their Olympic debut in Rio 2016 and can be considered veterans of the team. While Manuel had the faster time on paper, conventional wisdom suggests the advantage of a flying start gives a 0.5 to 0.7-second advantage. That gives the coaches a bit of a conundrum. Will they go with Manuel, who has shown an uncanny ability to get her hand to the wall first in the past, or Weitzeil, who has been more consistent in past years?

China – 3:34.31

Cheng Yujie (53.95), Wu Qingfeng (53.84), Yu Yiting (54.05), and Yang Junxuan (52.47) combined forces this morning, a near identical lineup to China’s bronze winning relay in Fukuoka. The newcomer is Yu, who pulled out of the women’s 100 fly.

Zhang Yufei anchored this relay in Fukuoka, splitting 52.84. With Yu’s departure, she is the sole Chinese entrant in the women’s 100 fly, where she qualified with the top seed this morning. Zhang is no stranger to tough doubles — she won the 200 fly and helped China to a 4×200 world record in Tokyo — but Yu’s withdrawal might signal her intent to go all-in on this relay tonight.

Still, China will need to find at least a two second drop to catch the United States tonight. Yu’s flat start best is only 54.10, so her split doesn’t signal a higher ceiling. Zhang holds a best time of 53.21, and may get the nod tonight considering the 100 fly semi and the relay bookend the sessions.

A wildcard option could be Li Bingjie, who set a career-best 53.55 in April. She wouldn’t have a double tonight after missing the final of the 400 free, but with a heavy schedule ahead of her it seems unlikely she’ll be pulled in.

Sweden – 3:34.35

World record holder Sarah Sjostrom highlighted Sweden’s relay this morning as she dropped a blistering 51.99 on the second leg to temporarily give her team the lead. That was the second fastest time of the morning, only behind Australia’s McKeon.

Sjostrom was joined by Michelle Coleman on the lead-off (53.92), and Sara Junevik (54.09) and Sofia Aastedt (54.35) on the back-half.

With only six women total on their Olympic roster, it seems likely Sweden will rock with the same lineup tonight. The only option is one of the Hansson sisters. Louise holds a PB of 54.27, but will swim the 100 fly semi tonight. Sophie’s best time is 55.85.

If all four Swedes are firing, they could propel themselves onto the podium, but whatever Sjostrom splits will be doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

France – 3:35.25

Beryl Gastaldello got the crowd excited when she jumped out to an early lead in heat 2 (53.54). Mary-Ambre Moluh (53.49), Lison Nowaczyk (54.67), and Charlotte Bonnet (53.55) combined to finish 5th overall.

Marie Wattel, France’s second individual entrant besides Gastaldello, will probably replace Mowacyzk tonight. She holds a personal best of 53.12 from Tokyo.

France’s ceiling in this relay all hinges on if Bonnet can approach her national record (52.74) and if Moluh can replicate her prelims effort. Moluh’s best time comes from French Trials in June, where she finished 3rd in 54.08.

Canada – 3:35.29

The Canadians are the defending silver medalists in this event, but they only qualified through in 6th this morning. Only Penny Oleksiak, who led off this morning in 53.78, was on that relay.

Oleksiak, Canada’s most decorated Olympian, was joined by Mary-Sophie Harvey (54.15), Brooklyn Douthwright (53.81), and Taylor Ruck (53.55) this morning.

Two of the swimmers Canada would feasibly bring in would have a double to deal with. The more manageable double belongs to Maggie MacNeil, who is 7th seed in the women’s 100 fly. MacNeil holds a best time of 53.64 and split 53.07 in Fukuoka last summer.

The wildcard would be to sub in Summer McIntosh, whose flat start best is 53.90. However, McIntosh is 4th into the 400 free final tonight, with only semis of the men’s 100 breast separating it from the relay. Additionally, she was only 54.99 leading off in Fukuoka off the same double, where she failed to make the podium in the 400 free.

Rebecca Smith, with a PB of 54.44, is the last option for the Canadian women. She split 53.63 in Tokyo, but has only been 54.70 in the 100 free this season.

Canada has a higher ceiling than what they put together in prelims, but even with MacNeil replacing Harvey it still looks like a steep mountain to climb to grab another spot on the podium.

Great Britain – 3:36.13

Great Britain is another team that doesn’t have many options to sub in for finals, but has a much higher ceiling based on past performances.

Out of Anna Hopkin (54.08), Eva Okaro (53.84), Lucy Hope (54.74), and Freya Anderson (53.47), only Okaro outperformed her flat-start best (54.46). Hopkin holds the national record (52.75), and both Hope (53.89) and Anderson (53.31) have been faster in their careers.

A 52-point split from Hopkin could be huge for the Brits here, but it will take more than that to match their 5th-place finish from Tokyo.

Italy – 3:36.28

Qualifying 8th is Italy, who make their first major international final since Rio 2016. Sofia Morini (53.92), Chiara Tarantino (54.14), Sara Curtis (53.93), and Emma Virginia Menicucci (54.29) combined to claim lane 8, just 0.5-seconds ahead of the Netherlands’ team.

There isn’t a compelling argument for the Italians to swap anyone in for finals, but they do have at least a second to drop. Tarantino (54.05) and Curtis (53.13) hold faster personal bests than what they split this morning.

Men’s 4×100 Free Relay

China – 3:11.62

China’s splits only got faster as the relay went on, culminating in world record holder Pan Zhanle dropping a 46.98 on the anchor leg. Ahead of him, teammates Wang Haoyu (48.61), Chen Juner (48.10), and Ji Xinjie (47.93). It’s a similar lineup to what they fielded in Doha, with Chen replacing Zhang Zhanshuo.

China doesn’t have any likely subs for this relay, but they do have room for improvement. Wang has been 47 flat start before (47.89), and the world record is 46.80. If China decides to move Pan to the first leg as they did in Doha, he could give the team an incredible lead over the field.

Australia – 3:12.25

Australia used the top four men from their Trials in the prelims, implying they don’t have a pair of aces up their sleeve like they do in the women’s race.

Jack Cartwright got things rolling (48.51), followed by William Yang (48.39), Flynn Southam (47.91), and Kyle Chalmers (47.44). Southam and Cartwright have both been 47-high from a flat start, and Yang’s 48.08 PB from Trials implies he could dip in the 47 range with a flying start.

The Aussies lead a tightly bunched field, with 2nd and 7th separated by just 0.71-seconds. They will need to find every millisecond of improvement possible to hold onto a medal finish.

Great Britain – 3:12.49

Great Britain is on a quest for redemption after disqualifying this relay at 2023 Worlds. They found their Olympic qualification in Doha, where they were just a touch slower in finals (3:12.55).

This morning, they used Duncan Scott (48.61), Jacob Whittle (47.90), Alexander Cohoon (47.91), and Tom Dean (48.07) to qualify 3rd. They’ve never won an Olympic medal in this event, so expect them to be on the hunt tonight.

National record holder Matt Richards (47.45) is an easy swap in; the question is who will he replace?

Scott and Dean both posted relatively pedestrian times for their standards. Scott owns the second-fastest anchor split in history (46.14) while Dean has also dipped into the 46-range on relays before. But both men were far off their bests here.

Before the Games, Cohoon might have seemed like the obvious prelims swimmer. But he posted a time on par with Whittle.

The coaches will have to decide whether to trust Scott and Dean’s historic performances (maybe they were prioritizing safe starts to ensure qualification?) or give the nod to Cohoon, who has the hot hand.

USA – 3:12.61

While the defending champions qualified 4th, they once again have the advantage of swapping in two fresh legs for the final. Jack Alexy (47.08) and Chris Guiliano (47.25) will provide a huge boost to the American relay, where only Hunter Armstrong (47.50) posted a 47-second split in prelims. Armstrong will likely get the nod for finals, but who will be the fourth man?

The Americans have a similar conundrum to the one they have in the women’s race here. Ryan Held (48.52, lead-off) and Caeleb Dressel (48.19, anchor) threw down similar performances on paper, considering the advantage of a flying start. To be truly chaotic, you could even consider Matt King‘s 48.40 on the second leg as being on par.

All three men were 47-point at U.S. Trials, with Dressel posting the fastest time of the three (47.53). On one hand, Dressel has the most experience on this relay and could provide a steadying presence to a relatively young team. On the other, an argument could be made for Held’s inclusion. In conclusion, I don’t envy the American coaches right now.

Canada – 3:12.77

Josh Liendo threw down on Canada’s anchor leg, splitting 47.25 for one of the fastest times of the field. He was joined by, Finlay Knox (49.03), Yuri Kisil (48.34), and Javier Acevedo (48.15).

The Canadians don’t have anyone else on the bench, so it looks like it’ll be a reprise in finals. Kisil and Knox have room to improve based on their best times, but even with Liendo looking in great form it would take another 47 at least to inch closer to the podium.

Italy – 3:12.94

The defending Olympic and Worlds silver medalists are lurking down in 6th. Rare for a team seeded this low, they have two strong contenders who sat out of prelims.

National record holder Alessandro Miressi (47.45) and 100 back world record holder Thomas Ceccon seem most likely to be tagged in for finals. Both men earned silver in Tokyo and Fukuoka, and Miressi led the Italians to silver in Doha earlier in February.

Out of Lorenzo Zazzeri (48.88), Leonardo Deplano (48.23), Paolo Conte Bonin (48.03), and Manuel Frigo (47.80), it seems most likely Zazzeri and Deplano will be tagged out. All of these men have split in 47-range before, so expect to see a strong performance out of lane 7 later today.

Hungary – 3:12.96

Rounding out the 3:12s is Hungary, who front-loaded their relay with Nandor Nemeth (48.07) and Szebasztian Szabo (48.02). They were followed by a back-half of backstroke specialists, as Adam Jaszo (48.74) and Hubert Kos (48.13) rounded out the squad.

The only reasonable swap would be to replace Jaszo with Kristof Milak, who holds a PB of 47.47. It all depends on if reports of his form have been greatly exaggerated. But even with that substitution, it will be tough to find their way to a higher finish, especially when contending with the Americans and Italians who have two legs to swap.

Germany – 3:13.15

Finally, Germany made their first major international in this event since at least 2016. Spearheaded by current national record holder Josha Salchow (48.56) and former national record holder Rafael Miroslaw (47.87), they earned the last lane by just 0.04-seconds over Spain. Luca Armbruster (48.29) and Peter Varjasi (48.43) brought up the rear.

The Germans have a pair of 48.8s on the bench between Lukas Maertens (48.86) and Kaii Winkler (48.81), but considering they qualified for this final by a hair it seems unlikely they’ll risk swapping in fresh blood.