What’s That? The Mixed Medley is a Mess of Possibilities? Sounds Normal (Line-Up Speculation)

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
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MIXED 4×100 MEDLEY RELAY – HEATS

• World Record: 3:37.58 – Great Britain (2021)
• Olympic Record: 3:37.58 – Great Britain (2021)
• 2021 Winning Time: 3:37.58 – Great Britain
• 2021 Time to Advance to Finals: 3:43.94

1. United States (Regan Smith, Charlie Swanson, Caeleb Dressel, Abbey Weitzeil) – 3:40.98
2. Australia (Iona Anderson, Zac Stubblety-Cook, Emma McKeon, Kyle Chalmers) – 3:41.42
3. China (Xu Jiayu, Tang Qianting, Zhang Yufei, Pan Zhanle) – 3:42.26
4. Netherlands (Kai Van Westering, Caspar Corbeau, Tessa Giele, Marrit Steenbergen) – 3:43.60
5. Great Britain (Kathleen Dawson, James Wilby, Joe Litchfield, Anna Hopkin) – 3:43.73
6. Canada (Blake Tierney, Apollo Hess, Maggie MacNeil, Taylor Ruck) – 3:43.87
7. France (Yohann Ndoye-Brouard, Antoine Viquerat, Lilou Ressencourt, Marie Wattel) – 3:43.99
8. Japan (Riku Matsuyama, Taku Taniguchi, Mizuki Hirai, Rikako Ikee) – 3:44.25

Nothing is as exciting as the mixed medley as there are so many possible combinations of athletes and, therefore, so many possibilities for each and every team to have a chance to win a medal.

That said,

Nothing is as anxiety-inducing as the mixed medley as there are so many possible combinations of athletes and, therefore, so many possibilities for each and every team to have a chance at losing a medal.

As a quick reminder, if you so choose to, here is the event preview for you to peruse of the 400 Mixed Medley from before the start of the meet.

USA

The fastest added-up times from the US Trials (finals) yielded an FMFM order of Regan Smith, Nic Fink, Gretchen Walsh, and Chris Guiliano but with Guiliano and the men in general struggling, the USA opted to go FMMF using Smith,  Charlie Swanson, Caeleb Dressel and Abbey Weitzeil as the prelims squad.

The whole prelims squad for the USA faced some scrutiny, especially at the conclusion of last night’s evening session. While both Smith and Dressel were picked in the SwimSwam previews to finish second in the 200 back and off the podium in the 50 free, one wonders if they had not been on the prelims of the relay, then could they have performed better in their individual events, especially with Dressel failing to advance to the finals of the 100 fly.

Their inclusion, and that of Weitzeil, has been brought up by some of those in the comment section as a service to the veteran athletes to give them a shot at more medals, as Simone Manuel or Torri Huske could have swum the prelims. True, Manuel had the 50 today, but Huske should have easily been able to manage three 100s over the last three days of competition.  Nonetheless, the USA’s quartet qualified the team into the final in first place in a time of 3:40.98.

In the preview article, we posited three likely relay orders for the USA

• MMFF which had a time of 3:39.17
• FMFM which had a time of 3:38.90
• FMMF which had a time of 3:38.96

with the USA choosing to use the last of these in prelims. However, based on math from times achieved at this meet the FMFM order again comes out on top.

It is entirely possible that my math is off or I recorded the wrong time down, but based on these theoretical relays, while FMFM is the fastest, MMFF may be the best bet. Armstrong’s 46.75 may be tough to replicate again and while Dressel’s 50.10 stood out, he was 51.57 at night and missed the final of the 100 fly.

MMFF is not without its risks either, while it is the only relay to have an individual medalist in each leg, Ryan Murphy‘s 200 back semifinal performance could give pause, but swimming out of lane 4 tonight, the was created by those around them, namely Xu Jiayu, should point the USA to using a male backstroker.

Speculated USA Roster: Murphy, Fink, G. Walsh, Huske

Australia

While every nation would hope for the ability to field a medalist in every event, for the sake of coordinating this relay, having strengths and weaknesses makes it a lot easier. For the Australian’s its the men’s backstroke and women’s breaststroke. Fortunately, four-time individual gold medalist in the backstroke Kaylee McKeown will help fill that gap, and while the men don’t have an equivalent breaststroker in the same caliber as McKeown, Joshua Yong‘s 58.99 from this morning should help them greatly.

Yong’s inclusion this morning may mean that Williamson will get shot or that Zac Stubblety-Cook, who swam in the prelims of the mixed (59.68), will get the nod. When using Yong’s time, which is the fastest 100 breast by an Australian in Paris, a relay order of FMFM, which they swam in prelims (Iona Anderson, Zac Stubblety-Cook, Emma McKeon, Kyle Chalmers) yields the fastest possible time of 3:39.07. The only other combination within a second is FMMF, and that relies on Matt Temple swimming a double and Meg Harris repeating her 51.94, although Shayna Jack and Mollie O’Callaghan would likely be given the nod instead.

Estimated AUS Roster: McKeown, Young, McKeon, Chalmers

CHINA

China’s relays this morning did not offer much insight into their plans for this evening. The men’s relays were loaded with the likes of Xu Jiayu, Qin Haiyang, and Pan Zhanle, whereas the women’s were missing stars Zhang Yufei and Yang Junxuan but did have their fastest backstrokers and breaststrokers.

The most likely reason is that the Chinese men’s team couldn’t afford to not swim their stars. Less than a second separates 2nd through 8th in the men’s medley, and with only one entrant in the men’s 100 back, Xu, who DNSed the 200 back, had to swim. The Chinese women, on the other hand, had more wiggle room and could afford not to swim Zhang and Yang on the women’s prelims, which points towards their inclusion in the final.

If they utilize a MMFF order of Xu, Qin, Zhang and Yang, then the summed time of their fastest results from the meet is 3:39.21. That time is just .14 behind if they opted to use Pan Zhanle on the anchor and go MFFM, which is the order they opted to use in the prelims and where Xu, Tang Qianting, Zhang, and Pan swam 3:42.26.

No Idea, but leaning towards: Xu, Qin, Zhang, Yang

Netherlands

The Dutchmen were just a little off their national record set back in Doha this morning in the men’s prelims, and with the women qualifying 8th, they have a plethora of options to choose from. Arno Kamminga‘s withdrawal from the 200 breast event due to injury would normally be a big cause for concern, but Caspar Corbeau has been having the meet of his life, not only swimming a personal best in the 100 (59.04) but also claiming the bronze medal in the 200 breast.

The Dutch went MMFF (Kai Van Westering, Caspar Corbeau, Tessa Giele, Marrit Steenbergen) in the prelims yesterday, but that was likely to give Nyls Korstanje rest for his 100-fly semi. While he did partake in the men’s relay this morning and has the final this evening, would still be the team’s best shot.

Using an FMMF order, with Kira Touissant coming in for the backstroke, yields a time of 3:41.76, whereas the MMFF order was 3:43.60 in prelims, and even if their best times from the meet are taken into account, they only sum to 3:42.46.

Conjecturing: Toussaint, Corbeau, Korstanjen, Steenbergen

Great Britain

Has Adam Peaty recovered from his bout with COVID?  Yes! He did swim in the prelims of the men’s relay this morning, splitting 59.16. In the prelims yesterday, team GB went with Kathleen Dawson, James Wilby, Joe Litchfield, and Anna Hopkin. Wilby was 59.35 on the prelims of the mixed relay, and with Peaty having been as fast as 58.86 off a flat start, Peaty may get the nod or may not.

With the British women missing out on the medley relay final, Angharad Evans could give Peaty some more rest. Evans had the second fastest split in the Women’s medley prelims (1:05.40) and if the Brits go with an unorthodox order of MFMF, they have a time of 3:42.44, just one-hundredth off the MMFF order. However, if they did wish to give Peaty rest, they could use Wilby and avoid any issues caused by using a female breaststroker.

Venturing a guess: Morgan, Peaty, MacInnes, Hopkin

CANADA

Team Canada opted to use an MMFF order in the morning for the prelims with the team of Blake Tierney, Apollo Hess, Maggie MacNeil, and Taylor Ruck, combining for a time of 3:43.87. With no real breaststroke power on either side, Canada will likely default to a male breaststroker and have their trials winner, Finlay Knox come in for that leg. Ingrid Wilm swam the backstroke leg this morning for the women, leaving 200 backstroke bronze medalist Kylie Masse fresh for the relay. Josh Liendo is in the final of the fly, which would occur earlier in the session, and was not on the prelim relay, so likely could come in for that leg and have Taylor Ruck, who has had the fastest 100 free split of the meet, for Canada anchor or Maggie MacNeil who was .11 slower than Ruck, albeit on the first leg.

Only variables on the fly/free order: Masse, Knox, Liendo, MacNeil

FRANCE

To Leon or Not to Leon, That is the question. He immediately would improve the relay as he has been as fast as 59.06, and France does not have a female breaststroker, so even if he doesn’t swim, expect the breaststroker to be male.

After Leon Marchand, the question arises of to stick with their MMFF order or switch to FMMF; in looking at the two options, it really comes down to who do the French give the double too.

(* flat start)

Beryl Gastaldello will have the semis of the 50 free this evening, Maxime Grousset, the finals of the 100 fly, and Yohann Ndoye-Brouard already swam in the prelims of the men’s medley, as did Emma Terebo and Marie Wattel for the women so a double is going to come from somewhere. Mewen Tomac could be the backstroker, but Ndoye-Brouard has consistently outperformed him in the 100 and is unlikely to displace him.

Marchand has raced a lot this week, and with the French men the top seeds in the medley relay tomorrow, Antoine Viquerat may get the nod, but France is only competitive if Marchand races.

Hazarding a thought of: Terebo, Marchand, Grousset, Wattel

But can also see: Ndoye-Brouard, Marchand, Wattel, Gastaldello

JAPAN

Japan’s Riku Matsuyama, Taku Taniguchi, Mizuki Hirai, and Rikako Ikee likely were their nation’s best options and were needed to swim the prelims to make the finals. Satomi Suzuki had a strong breaststroke split of 1:05.52 this morning, but replacing Ikee with Katsuhiro Matsumoto won’t gain much time back and has the downside of having a female breaststoker.

Most confident in: Matsuyama, Taniguchi, Hirai, Ikee