SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers which barrier is most likely to be broken in the Olympic year:
Question: Which barrier has the best chance of being broken in 2024? (Women)
RESULTS
- 200 IM, 2:06 – 51.0%
- 100 back, 57 – 37.2%
- 100 fly, 55 – 6.1%
- 100 breast, 1:04 – 5.7%
In history, we’ve only seen six 2:06 swims in the women’s 200 IM.
Compare that to the 100 back, where we’ve seen someone touch in 57-something 32 times, or the 100 fly, where 55-point has been recorded 28 times.
In the 100 breast, 1:04 has flashed up on the clock 24 times.
But in our most recent poll, more than half of SwimSwam readers believe that among those four races, 2:06 is the next barrier to fall, or at least the most likely.
Of the six 2:06s we’ve seen in the 200 IM, three of them belong to Katinka Hosszu, all done during her 2015-2016 peak. Siobhan-Marie O’Connor has one, clocking 2:06.88 in the 2016 Olympic final when she challenged Hosszu for gold, and another is owned by Ariana Kukors, who demolished the world record in 2009 in a super-suit in 2:06.15, which is still #2 all-time behind Hosszu’s 2:06.12 from 2015.
Although Hosszu, at 34, is planning a comeback in time for the Paris Games, the only currently active swimmer who has gone sub-2:07 is Summer McIntosh, who set a World Junior Record of 2:06.89 at the 2023 Canadian Trials and then didn’t even race the event at the World Championships.
Despite McIntosh being the only active sub-2:07 swimmer, a big reason why 51% of the readers voted for the 2:06 marker to fall over the 100 back, breast or fly is due to the fact that there are three others who have been 2:07-low and it will only take one of them to have a significant drop to get into the 2:05s.
There’s 2022 world champion Alex Walsh (2:07.13), 2023 world champion Kate Douglass (2:07.09), and Australian powerhouse Kaylee McKeown (2:07.19), who broke world records in all three backstroke events last year and was denied a swim in the 200 IM World Championship final after a controversial DQ.
The leading candidate for a sub-2:06 swim would have to be McIntosh, as she lowered what appeared to be an untouchable world record in the 400 IM last year (Hosszu’s) and she’ll have the chance to take a run at the event in Paris with full focus. Unlike the 2023 World Championships, the 200 IM will take place after the 200 free, 400 free, 200 fly and 400 IM have concluded at the Olympics.
Among the other three, Douglass is probably the leading candidate due to how elite she is individually in fly, breast and free, while McKeown’s recent record onslaught surely puts her in the mix.
All-Time Performers, Women’s 200 IM (LCM)
- Katinka Hosszu (HUN), 2:06.12 – 2015 World Championships
- Ariana Kukors (USA), 2:06.15 – 2009 World Championships
- Siobhan-Marie O’Connor (GBR), 2:06.88 – 2016 Olympic Games
- Summer McIntosh (CAN), 2:06.89 – 2023 Canadian Trials
- Stephanie Rice (AUS), 2:07.03 – 2009 World Championships
- Kate Douglass (USA), 2:07.09 – 2023 U.S. Nationals
- Alex Walsh (USA), 2:07.13 – 2022 World Championships
- Kaylee McKeown (AUS), 2:07.19 – 2023 Sydney Open
- Ye Shiwen (CHN), 2:07.57 – 2012 Olympic Games
- Yu Yiting (CHN), 2:07.75 – 2023 Asian Games
Taking the runner-up spot in the poll was the 100 back, where the 57-second barrier is at risk after McKeown lowered the world record down to 57.33 in October. The 23-year-old Aussie has been 57.50 or faster four times, while American Regan Smith has been as fast as 57.57 (2019) and went 57.68 last year.
Unlike some of the other events, if sub-57 were to happen in the 100 back, it would have to come from McKeown, and maybe Smith, but no one else is even close.
In the 100 fly, it is remarkable that Sarah Sjostrom still owns the two fastest swims ever (55.48, 55.53) given that Maggie MacNeil, Zhang Yufei, Torri Huske and Emma McKeon have all been 55.72 or faster.
Sjostrom’s world record feels like it’s due to go down, though Zhang was the swimmer sub-56 last year (55.86).
As for a sub-55 swim, it seems as though that won’t fall anytime soon, unless we see a seismic performance similar to when MacNeil broke the short course world record by more than half a second at the 2022 SC Worlds.
In the 100 breast, 1:04 has seemingly been on the chopping block for more than a decade—we saw a suited Jessica Hardy go 1:04.45 in 2009, and a total of eight swimmers have now broken 1:05.
Lilly King holds the world record at 1:04.13, set back in 2017, and Ruta Meilutyte‘s return to elite form provides some hope that we might see a 1:03, especially after she broke the all-time mark in the 50 in 2023. Meilutyte owns a PB of 1:04.35 from 2013, and went 1:04.62 to win the world title in Fukuoka.
In addition to Meilutyte, King (1:04.75) and Russian Evgeniia Chikunova (1:04.92) broke 1:05 last year.
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: Will the last Pac-12s matter more to teams?
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The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner.
The section on 100 Fly should say that all those other swimmers have been 55.59 or faster as that’s Maggie’s best time.
Arghh, ignore this, I totally miscomprehended the sentence, lol.
Gonna be funny when Yu and Walsh split the gold and silver between them leaving all the stans in ruins.
Now I wanna see Yu Yuting win in WR to see Swimswam comments section meltdown.
Lol would love this
This result really surprised me tbh, I don’t think people are respecting how incredible peak Hosszu was in the IMs. We’re expecting people to drop a second or even more off their primary events (for Walsh, Douglas) or McIntosh in between the other 4+ events she’ll swim at trials or the Olympics? McKeown set her WR just this October, I’d expect her to go faster during trials or the Olympics as she’s been consistently doing, and it’s not a crazy amount of time to drop tbh
The person who ended up swimming faster than Hosszu’s incredible peak in the 400 IM is actively pursuing the 200 IM and continues to go PBs in 200-length races so that gives people a pretty good data point to use for that prediction. Yes, she’s swimming a lot of other events at big meets, but you know who else was famous for swimming big programs?
Jajaja
We all know that Douglass will shut a lot of mouths. There are no swimmers like her, and I understand that this may cause the envy of some users😌
I will just never understand the insistence on handing Douglass records and medals she isn’t close to earning yet.
She may very well end up being the best swimmer in Paris. She may very well not. Wait til it happens before endlessly bragging about achievements she hasn’t achieved yet.
People continuously throw out these ridiculous predictions and then act like they’re a victim when people disagree it. It’s weird and sad.
I do not take away options from others but of course Douglass has many options and contradicting him is in vain.
I know English isn’t your first language but this doesn’t make sense and isn’t relevant to what I wrote
If you read my comment, I never exaggerated about what I could do, nor did I insist on any strange achievements.
I don’t understand how you can’t think that I can go down 1 second to get WR (when I go down 1 full second in 200 breaststroke)
I think that certain users like you should be more impartial since it seems absurd to me to always argue the same thing, most of them coming from Australian users.
My question is: if Australian women’s swimming is as good as it is, why the envy that is perceived towards swimmers like Douglas?
if you read any discussion about douglass, including other comments within this article, your question would be answered. you wonder why there is ” envy”, the reply explained that it is not envy. you commented about the general douglass discourse, so of course the reply won’t be related to your personal opinion
Why do you use the pronoun “I” when talking about Kate Douglass? Is this KD’s burner account!? Lol
I never said Kate can’t drop a second to break the WR. Link me to the comment where I say that because I never have.
I have never seen envy towards Kate Douglass. Is this envy in the room with us right now?
Again, crazy KD stans make ridiculous predictions, and then if anyone dares disagree, they respond with “wow you’re so jealous, she’s the best EVER” and spout nonsense… which is exactly what you just did
A lot of posters making these crazy predictions aren’t even genuine fans of a particular swimmer. They are just looking to start drama by making absurd predictions which they usually follow up with accusations of jealousy or blind hatred.
There are legitimate KD fans who think she will go on to do great things this year who should not be grouped with the ones saying she will go 2:05 and 2:15 and that everyone who disagrees is a hater.
Unfortunately, things will only get worse here in the lead up to Paris.
So you’re going to break the world record ahead of Douglass just to show her how it’s done?
Huh?
So everyone who disagrees with you is Aussie?
I think you might be a troll.
“People continuously throw out these ridiculous predictions and then act like they’re a victim when people disagree it. It’s weird and sad.”
I saw in previous thread, some Douglas fan complained about people hating Douglas just because they disagreed about Douglas winning Olympics individual titles in WR time
I don’t think there is a swimmer on the scene who generates as much envy as her, saying that she can’t drop a second off her mark is nonsense.
I’m not sure you know what the word “envy” means. Douglass is a very talented swimmer, but I can name 100 swimmers in the last decade with signficantly more accomplishments.
Disagreeing with wild predictions does not mean someone is envious
I don’t know what crazy prediction you’re referring to?
I didn’t make any, I’m not that kind of douglass fanatic you’re referring to.
I don’t think she is going to do 2:15 in the 200 breaststroke or anything like that hahaha (I think Chikunova will win the gold)
I just got the feeling that when people talk about Douglas, you all jump around saying he can’t do something for no reason.
And that is very strange to say that a swimmer can’t do something, when you are always referring to her and not anyone else hahaha
The comments are full of ridiculous predictions. You posted that Douglass would shut everyone’s mouths and that everyone is jealous of her, completely unprompted and completely unrelated to anything in the comments or the article. I do not believe for a second that you’re “not that kind of Douglass fanatic”.
And again you keep saying that I’m always talking about her but I literally never talk about her unless people randomly want to brag about achievements she doesn’t have… like you did and are continuing to do.
I don’t think doing 2:05.9 in a 200 IM is crazy, she should only lose 1.2 pb, doing 2:15 in the 200 breaststroke is a totally different type of prediction. Whenever it is mentioned that Kate could do wr, she is the swimmer who is most doubted and they always tend to be Australian. Could it be that you are the ones who really give it more importance or do you think that we Douglass fans make crazy predictions when that is not the case?
Yea, I think predicting a 2:05.9 based on current evidence is crazy. Me disagreeing with you doesn’t make me jealous or a hater.
Yes, you do make crazy predictions and then get mad when people don’t agree. You’re doing it now.
I think 2:05.9 is crazy, unless compared too 2:15 which actually just seems impossible. Like I can atleqast see 2:05.9 happening at some point relativelyt soon. I don’t even think Chikunova has much chance of going a 2:15.
No one said about Chikunova going 2:15.
It was Kate Douglas fans who said Kate will go 2:15
You clearly are a troll. Don’t know why you not banned yet.
Kate Douglas will break the WR this year, no doubt about it.
I voted for 200IM. McIntosh hasn’t swum a rested 200IM since trials and her other 200s both improved significantly since then. A 0.9 drop seems very possible.
Kaylee also has a shot in the 100 back. But 0.33 is a fair bit of time to drop in a 100 when your technique is already perfect. She can definitely do it, there’s just no obvious upside coming unlike there is with McIntosh.
Co-signed
I really don’t think any of these are gonna happen this year, but I suppose the 200 IM does seem the most likely