Analyzing Le Clos’ 200 Fly Olympic Semifinals Strategy: Fly and Die

2020 TOKYO SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

South Africa’s Chad Le Clos was swimming his own race in the 200 fly semifinal on Monday. He took out the first 100 meters of his semifinals 200 butterfly about 1.5 seconds faster than he did in prelims to lead the field by 1 second at the 50-meter mark and 2 seconds at the halfway point.

He split the race 24.45/28.23, charging  hard on the first 100 meters. He finished in 30.56/31.82 while trying to fend off the field of swimmers slowly devouring his lead.

Swimming out of lane eight, Le Clos turned his head to look down the pool at the swarm of competitors five times on the last 50 meters before putting his head down and throwing himself forward for three last strokes into the wall.

In prelims, the difference between Le Clos’ 2nd and 3rd 50 splits was .56. In finals, that difference grew to 2.33 seconds, an exhibit of a race plan that some call “fly and die.”

Although, when you are 2012 Olympic gold medalist Chad Le Clos, “die” still means you earn the #3 spot going into tomorrow’s final.

Le Clos touched the wall 1st in the first semifinal heat with a time of 1:55.06, .90 faster than his prelims time.

He gave a couple short nods after the race when he looked at the scoreboard, followed by a wave and thumbs up to the crowd, and a slight smile off camera. His coaches looked a bit chagrined at his strategy in the stands.

Splits Comparison: Prelims vs Semifinals

Le Clos Prelims Le Clos Semifinals
50 24.97 24.45
100 54.07 (29.10) 52.68 (28.23)
150 1:24.53 (30.46) 1:23.24 (30.56)
200 1:55.96 (31.43) 1:55.06 (31.82)

His prelims swim was more reserved on the front half (24.97/29.10) and he finished the race with a stronger 3rd 50 meters (30.46 compared to 30.56 in semifinals) and stronger on the final 50 meters (31.43 compared to 31.82 in semifinals.)

Compare Le Clos’ race to top seed Kristof Milak of Hungary who earned the top spot going into the final tomorrow with a time of 1:52.22.

Milak split the race 24.46/28.45/29.16/30.15 in semifinals, also slowing down on the back half of the race. But Milak had a smaller difference between his 2nd and 3rd 50 splits (.71) than Le Clos whose splits were separated by 2.33 seconds.

Splits Comparison: Le Clos vs Milak

Le Clos Prelims Le Clos Semifinals  Milak Prelims Milak Semifinals
50 24.97 24.45 24.8 24.46
100 54.07 (29.10) 52.68 (28.23) 54.01 (29.21) 52.91 (28.45)
150 1:24.53 (30.46) 1:23.24 (30.56) 1:23.32 (29.31 1:22.07 (29.16)
200 1:55.96 (31.43) 1:55.06 (31.82) 1:53.58 (30.26) 1:52.22 (30.15)

Both swimmers outdid their prelims swims significantly, by .90 for Le Clos and by 1.35 seconds for Milak.

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Justhereforfun
2 years ago

I know some people may call him dumb or cocky to swim a 2fly like that, but pulling this strategy off (kinda) at 29 years old in an event as grueling as the 2fly takes some serious guts (and confidence, which I’m sure he doesn’t lack)

Steve Nolan
2 years ago

I put a buck on him at +10000, so if somehow he does again that but holds on I’ll be all for it.

Stugotz
2 years ago

This guy isn’t afraid to turn hype machine to 10. Brilliant 2 fly strategy

David s
2 years ago

Still hasn’t broken 55 in years.
Hopefully he will in final

Bean Doxall
2 years ago

In 2019 Milak dropped 2.23 between semis and finals. If he drops 2.23 from his 1:52.22 it would be 1:49.99!!!

Facts
2 years ago

He’ll win the silver medal going out a 51

Rafael
Reply to  Facts
2 years ago

He will be a nice rabbit for Milak.. I was hoping he were on de Deus side (A la Hwang)

HJones
2 years ago

So what is he gonna do in finals, go out even faster??? Taking it out in a 51???

Texas Tap Water
2 years ago

Le Clos is always entertaining.

Erik
Reply to  Texas Tap Water
2 years ago

entertaining like a clown..

About Annika Johnson

Annika Johnson

Annika came into the sport competitively at age eight, following in the footsteps of her twin sister and older brother. The sibling rivalry was further fueled when all three began focusing on distance freestyle, forcing the family to buy two lap counters. Annika is a three-time Futures finalist in the 200 …

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