2024 U.S. Olympic Trials Previews: Who Will Step Up For Second Spot in the Women’s 200 Fly?

2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS

• June 15-23, 2024
• Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
• LCM (50 Meters)
• Session Start Times (ET):
  • 11 a.m. Prelims
  • 7:45 p.m. Finals (varying based on broadcast needs)
• Meet Central
• Broadcast Info
• SwimSwam’s Definitive Guide to Trials
• Psych Sheets
• Live Results
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• SwimSwam Pick ’em Contest

WOMEN’S 200 FLY — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 2:01.81 — Liu Zige, China (2009)
• American Record: 2:03.87 — Regan Smith (2023)
• U.S. Open Record: 2:03.87 — Regan Smith, United States (2023)
• World Junior Record: 2:04.06 — Summer McIntosh (2023)
• 2020 Olympic Champion: Zhang Yufei, China — 2:03.86
• 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials Champion: Hali Flickinger — 2:05.85
• U.S. Olympic Trials Cut: 2:13.69
• 2024 Olympic Qualifying Time — 2:08.43

Regan Smith burst onto the international scene in the backstroke events as a teenager at the 2019 World Championships, but it didn’t take long for her to show that she could be competitive on the world stage in more than just that discipline. She punched her ticket to the Tokyo Games in the 200 fly by taking second to Hali Flickinger at the U.S. Olympic Trials, and the event became even more of an Olympic focus for her after she missed the team in the 200 backstroke later in the meet.

Smith won silver in this event at the Games. Since then, she’s continued to improve; at the 2023 Sun Devil Open she swam a new American record (2:03.87), wiping a super-suited record off the books. The time is the 4th fastest performance in history and .01 shy of Zhang Yufei’s Olympic gold medal time from Tokyo.

Smith hasn’t been as fast ahead of Trials this season, but she’s still within a second of her American record courtesy of her 2:04.80 from the Westmont Pro Swim. She’s also nearly three seconds clear of the rest of the U.S. field this season. She and coach Bob Bowman hadn’t quite figured out her taper in this event for last year’s U.S. Nationals—she was on fire in the backstrokes but added almost two seconds in the 200 fly—but she’s got wiggle room here that she doesn’t need to swim her American Record to make the team.

The record, her continued improvement, and Hali Flickinger’s retirement all combine to make Smith the clear favorite in this event on the national scene. It’s her race to lose. Meanwhile, there’s chaos in her wake.

Horns Up

As if the Texas butterfly group couldn’t get any more loaded. One of the consequences of Bob Bowman landing the top job at the University of Texas is that the Longhorn’s already stacked group got even deeper.

Now, not only does the American record holder train in Austin but so does Lindsay Looney, the second 2023 Worlds qualifier in this event. Looney punched her ticket to Fukuoka from Lane 1—putting on some outside smoke theatrics in the very first final of the meet. She charged over the closing 50 meters, splitting a field-best 33.56 to move from 5th to 2nd. She qualified in 2:07.35, just a tenth off her personal best from the 2022 Trials.

The fact that she got the job done last summer should give Looney confidence heading into Trials. It doesn’t matter what lane she’s in, her closing speed will give her a chance. Looney’s season-best is 2:09.31, set at the U.S. Open, but expect her to be faster in Indianapolis. The only question for her and the rest of the Arizona State pros that followed Bowman is will a chaotic spring negatively impact them at Trials?

Dakota Luther (photo: Jack Spitser)

Dakota Luther sits second on the psych sheet behind Smith. After getting third at the 2023 U.S. Nationals (2:07.86), Luther threw down a 2:06.79 lifetime best at the U.S. Pro Championships later in the summer. That time would’ve gotten her back onto the long course Worlds team for the first time since 2017.

Since finishing 15th at the 2017 World Championships, Luther’s won gold in this race at the 2019 WUGs, 2022 SC Worlds, and 2023 Pan Am Games. Now, she’s looking to get back on the senior international roster and make her first Olympic team. Luther clearly has the speed to get that second spot but she’ll need to be at her best in the final. She skipped the 2022 U.S. Trials but at both the 2021 Olympic Trials and the 2023 U.S. Nationals she was slower in the final than she was in the early rounds. That can’t become a pattern for Luther, especially because it isn’t just Looney who uses the last 50 to make a push.

Looney’s 33.56 final 50 last summer was the fastest in the field, but Kelly Pash wasn’t too far off that pace. Pash split 33.75 on the closing length of her race, moving up from 7th at the final turn into 4th with a lifetime best of 2:08.13. She lowered her best to 2:08.00 later that summer at the U.S. Pro Championships. She finished 2nd to Luther in that final, once again showing strong closing speed with a 32.93 split on the last 50 meters.

Pash has taken her lifetime best in this ever from 2:08.58 to 2:08.00 in the last three years. She’s sitting 7th on the psych sheet which gives her some work to do. But, if she can keep it close during the opening of the race her closing speed may be what gives her the edge.

Emma Sticklen, the two-time NCAA champion in the 200-yard butterfly, should also be a factor in the final. Sticklen put herself on the map for the Americans in this event in 2022 when she swam 2:08.41 while on the 2022 Mare Nostrum tour. Last summer, she swam a lifetime best 2:08.28 for 6th in the U.S. Nationals final. That earned her a spot on the LEN U23 European Championships roster—her first time representing the United States at a major meet.

Based on the psych sheet and the seven swimmers sub-2:08, both Pash and Sticklen will need to break that barrier for the first time if they want to make the Olympic team. They’re currently seeded 7th and 8th and should both make the final, but have some work to do for the second roster spot.

Teenage Dreams

Five of the top eight swimmers are entered representing Longhorn Aquatics but that doesn’t guarantee that those swimmers will fill both roster spots. Along with the older swimmers hoping to make their first Olympic team there are a handful of teenagers pushing the pace.

Chief among them is Alex Shackell. Shackell earned her spot on the 2023 Worlds roster via the 200 freestyle (for the relay), but she’s also a talented butterflier. More importantly, she’s a talented butterflier finding her form at the right time.

Alex Shackell (photo: Jack Spitser)

Shackell’s gone lifetime bests in both the 100 and 200 butterfly this spring. She posted her 200 fly PB at Sectionals in Indianapolis, swimming 2:07.13. It’s a familiar place to be for Shackell; in 2023, she swam a PB at the Indy Cup, which she then bettered at the 2023 U.S. Nationals (a 2:08.18 for 5th).

If done at the 2023 Nationals, Shackell’s 2:07.13 would’ve earned her an individual entry at last year’s World Championships. It ranks her 4th on the psych sheet and right in the heart of the race for the second roster spot. And if she’s got another time drop in store for Indianapolis, then she could really separate herself from the other challengers.

Tess Howley is also vying to make her first Olympic team as a teenager. Howley, 19, just wrapped up her first season at Virginia. She finished 4th in the 200 fly at NCAAs in a personal best 1:52.41, putting points on the board for the Cavaliers as they won their fourth consecutive title.

Last summer, Howley was off her best at U.S. Nationals, swimming 2:08.86. But like many of the other swimmers in this article, she found another gear later in the summer. She won Junior Nationals in a big personal best of 2:06.85, setting a meet record and breaking 2:07 for the first time. That time has Howley 3rd on the psych sheet; this season she’s been as fast as 2:09.57 at the Westmont Pro Swim.

Bailey Hartman will join Howley and the Cavaliers this fall. The Crow Canyon swimmer’s best is a 2:10.58 from the 2022 Junior Pan Pacs, but she got within 23 one-hundredths of that time in the ‘B’ final at the 2023 U.S. Nationals. If she can break through this summer, she could make the jump to the final.

Bay Area Butterfly

Austin has amassed lots of the star power in this event but out in California, rivals Cal and Stanford are hoping to prove they can answer the challenge.

At the 2024 World Championships, the Golden Bears’ Rachel Klinker threw her name into the ring for the second roster spot with a 2:07.70 in the semifinal. She added time in finals and finished 4th, but in terms of making herself a contender for the Olympic team, she did all she needed to do in the semifinal.

Klinker’s time makes her the second fastest American this season, trailing only Smith and sitting 11 one-hundredths ahead of Luther. It may take faster than a 2:07.7 to make the team, but swimming her first PB in the event sincethe  2021 Trials by a second and a half in February should be a huge confidence boost to Klinker that she can be right there with the rest of the top contenders fully tapered now five months later.

Rachel Klinker (photo: Jack Spitser)

Meanwhile, Stanford’s trio of Caroline Bricker, Lucy Bell, and Charlotte Hook are hoping to keep their momentum from yards rolling and find a way into the final. After massive departures, the Stanford women’s team was expected to take a big step back in the 2023-24 season but these three underclassmen made big contributions to a team effort that saw them maintain a top five finish at NCAAs.

Bricker’s already kept building her momentum. She made massive time drops during her freshman season and quickly translated that to meters. At the Trojan Invite in May, Bricker cut 2.12 seconds off her lifetime best with a 2:09.80 for her first sub-2:10 outing. With that swim, she’s seeded just outside the final in 9th. Presumably, Bricker isn’t fully tapered yet and could have another drop in store for Indianapolis, which would only continue to push her closer toward the big fight in the final.

Lucy Bell and Charlotte Hook sit further down the psych sheet in 14th and 16th, respectively. But they could still have something up their sleeves for Trials. During the NCAA season, Bell swam her first PB in this event in three and a half years, swimming 1:52.62. Her 200 fly best sits at 2:10.25 from the 2022 Westmont PSS, but she swam 2:10.53 at the Trojan Invite, which may indicate that she’s ready to translate her yards gains to the big pool.

Hook’s personal best 2:07.79 from 2019 would slot her into 7th on the psych sheet. She just missed that mark at the 2021 Trials (2:07.92), where she finished 3rd. Last year, Hook missed the 2023 U.S. Nationals due to a lower back injury. She did race in the NCAA season and finished 11th in the 200y fly NCAA ‘B’ final. She’s been as fast as 2:11.26 this season.

The Verdict

Smith’s on a quest to upgrade her Olympic medal from silver to gold later this summer. Nationally, she’s the clear favorite to win this event. The main race is going to be further behind her for that second roster spot.

Several of the swimmers in this field didn’t post their best times at the 2023 U.S. Nationals and went on to go faster later in the summer (some with times that would’ve placed 2nd if they’d done them at the right moment). Those swimmers will want to avoid a repeat of that — this is the Olympic Trials and it’s the moment to step up and swim their best.

It’s a crowded race for 2nd, but there’s a realistic case to make for at least six swimmers. Looney’s shown she can do it, and both she and Pash can close. Luther and Howley have been 2:06 before. Late additions to the mix like Shackell and Klinker have momentum on their side from their in-season bests.

With a race this open, it seems like there’s going to be a crowd of swimmers all coming under the flags at the same time and whoever can time their last stroke the best will earn that second spot.

Dark Horse: Audrey Derivaux — Just 14 years old, age group phenom Audrey Derivaux has had an exceptional spring. At the four-day Martha McKee Open, Derivaux swam 10 best times, propelling herself up her age-group rankings in multiple events. She now sits 4th all-time among 13-14 American girls with her new lifetime best of 2:10.81. If she can drop again in Indianapolis–which seems likely–then she could put in a real challenge for a finals lane.