2024 U.S. Olympic Trials Previews: Fink Looking Secure in 100 Breast, 2nd Ripe For the Taking

2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS

• June 15-23, 2024
• Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
• LCM (50 Meters)
• Meet Central
• Broadcast Info
• SwimSwam’s Definitive Guide to Trials
• SwimSwam Preview Index

MEN’S 100 Breast— BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 56.88 – Adam Peaty, Great Britain (2019)
• World Junior Record: 59.01 – Nicolo Martinenghi, Italy (2017)
• American Record: 58.14 – Michael Andrew (2021)
• U.S. Open Record: 58.14 – Michael Andrew, USA (2021)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: Adam Peaty (GBR) – 57.37
• 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials Champion: Michael Andrew – 58.73
• U.S. Olympic Trials Cut: 1:02.19
• 2024 Olympic Qualifying Times: 59.49/59.79

The 2021 Olympic Trials for the Men’s 100 breaststroke was one the closest races of the week. In the semifinals, Michael Andrew lit up the field with a new American Record of 58.14, firmly establishing himself as the front-runner for not only the individual event but the relay leg of America’s undefeated at the Olympics 4×100 medley relay.

The final was a much closer affair as Andrew was out like a bat but slowed considerably on the backhalf adding nearly half a second to his semi’s time. He still managed to hold on to the win and secure his ticket to his first Olympics as he out-touched Andrew Wilson by one one-hundredth, 58.73 to 58.74. Joining the Jeopardy answer pair of Michael Andrew Wilson under the Olympic qualifying time in the final were Nic Fink (3rd – 58.80) and Kevin Cordes (4th – 59.79). In the semifinal, Max McHugh was also under the standard but wound up tying for 7th in the final.

Fast-forward to the 2023 US Trials and five swimmers under the standard was seen as a luxury of riches.  After the preliminary heats of the 100 breast, American Record holder Andrew finished in 17th, well outside the mark. Wilson had retired the summer before, and Cordes hadn’t raced since the end of 2021. From that 3rd place finish at the Olympic Trials, Fink emerged as America’s breaststroke, having won gold in the 50 breast and bronze in the 100 breast at the 2022 Worlds, as well as winning 4 individual golds and medaling in every breaststroke race at the 2021 and 2022 Short Course Worlds.

Despite such a resume, even Fink was outside the qualifying time heading into finals last summer. I wrote an article detailing all the situations regarding what may or may not happen should no one make the qualifying time, as it is an uncommon occurrence in the US. If you wish to revisit all the potential situations, you can read about it here. Thankfully, Fink threw down a speedy 58.36 in finals, and Josh Matheny, many of whom forget, finished 5th at the 2021 trials as an 18-year-old, repeated his second place from the 200 in  59.20 to also get under the standard (as did 3rd place finisher Noah Nichols).

Fast forward a year, and the US seems to be in a better spot, so hopefully, one won’t need to dust off last year’s article.

“Old Man”

Emerging later in his career, Fink has turned into the epitome of consistency. At 30 years young, he has medaled at every long course and short course Worlds meet since 2021 but is still chasing that elusive Olympic medal. Missing out in the 100 in 2021, Fink did make the Tokyo team in the 200 breast, placing 5th in the finals.

Fink clearly leads the pack of American men. He ranks third in the world in the 100, based on his gold medal performance at the 2024 Worlds. He touched the wall in 58.57, ahead of likely rivals in Paris, Nicolo Martinenghi and Adam Peaty. In Doha, in addition to picking up bronze medals in the 50 and 200, Fink split 58.2s in both the winning medley relay, showing his consistency to be under 59.

Outside of Worlds, Fink has kept a relatively low profile, having only raced twice since February. He took 2nd in the 100 at the San Antonio, finishing in 1:00.03 behind Denis Petrashov‘s 59.83. At the Longhorn Elite meet in May, Fink outdueled Jake Foster and Will Licon, hitting the wall in 1:00.35. While neither time is under the OQT, the results should only give Fink fans confidence that he can get back under 59, as one month before Doha at the Knoxville Pro Swim Series, he was 1:00.36.

“I’m Still Standing”

Michael Andrew (photo: Jack Spitser)

Andrew is a human lightning rod for comments and discussions, and I expect nothing less in the comments section below. A sprint specialist, Andrew holds many unique accolades, among which included making the finals in the 50-meter distance of each individual stroke at the 2019 Worlds. However, as we all know, there are no 50-meter events outside of freestyle at the Olympic Games, so Andrew must swim in some distance events (at least for him) to increase his chance of making the Olympics again.

In 2021, Andrew, in addition to qualifying in the 100 breast, won the 200 IM and placed second in the 50 free, qualifying him to swim three events. In Tokyo, Andrew made the finals in all of his events, but disappointingly, he swam slower than his times from Trials in each event. In fact, his times fastest times from trials would have medaled in each event, but Andrew finished off the podium each time, finishing as high as 4th in the 100 breast and 50 free.

Since then, Andrew has been up and down. At the 2022 Worlds, he won five medals, but two were in the 50s of stroke, and another two were in relays where he likely* filled in for an absent Caeleb Dressel. 2023 was an off year, with Andrew missing the Worlds team despite winning the 50 fly, but Andrew has stated that there was a silver lining in missing that team.

Looking to make the best of those lessons he learned in 2023, Andrew, who is still the American Record holder, has done a lot of racing, which is par for the course. In the fall, he competed at all of the World Aquatics World Cup and continued on to the US Open, where he beat Fink swimming 59.52 to place 2nd. In the new year, he went to Doha, but didn’t swim the 100 breast, instead taking on the all 50s of stroke, taking the silver in the 50 fly.

He spent some of the spring racing in France, finished 4th in the 100 in San Antonio (1:00.32), and then posted a speedy 59.87 at the L.A. Invite in mid-May. Most recently, at the Speedo Grand Challenge at the end of May, he swam 1:01.41 in prelims but scratched finals. With a lack of 200 IM results this year, Andrew seems to be focusing on the 100 breast, 100 fly, and 50 free. However, despite a streamlined event order, Andrew still is on the outside looking in, as on paper, he is just the third-ranked American.

“Don’t Stop Believin'”

FOSTER, Jake – credit Fabio Cetti

After initially stating a possibility of retiring if he got into medical school and then deferring medical school to continue swimming with a focus on representing the US, Jake Foster has continued to push through and fulfill nearly* every swimmer’s goal of making the Olympics.

Foster placed 6th in the 200 breast and 5th in the 400 IM at the 2021 Trials, and has had a series of near misses of making the cut. In 2022, he was 3rd in the 200 breast, and last year placed 3rd again. While the 200 result was the same in 2023, last year’s meet saw a shift in focus as he dropped the 400 IM and added the 100 breast. While he placed 8th in the finals, he was second out of prelims. With his younger brother, Carson Foster, and reigning Olympic gold medalist Chase Kalisz holding down the fort in the 400 IM, the elder Foster and his evident shift to the breaststroke may have just improved his chances of making the team.

Despite missing the World’s team, Foster’s results have only improved in the shorter of the breaststroke events. He broke the minute barrier for the first time, winning the 100 breast at the Pro Swim Series Championships in 59.64. He repeated the feat in Santiago as he won double gold at the Pan-Am Games, claiming the 100 breast in 59.99.

He carried on that success into this calendar year, representing the US for the first time at long course worlds in Doha. While he fell short of medalling, Foster posted two new personal bests, swimming 59.61 in the prelims and 59.48 in the semifinals, and while that time only yielded him 9th, it was fast enough to make him the only American, besides Fink, under the OQT this season.

“Twenty One”

Three years ago, in 2021, only one teenager was in the finals. Fast-forward to today, and there is a strong pack of 21-year-olds, who have learned and improved greatly from then, all of whom are hungry for that Olympic berth.

Josh Matheny (photo: Jack Spitser)

Leading the charge amongst the group is Josh Matheny. Matheny, who finished 5th in 2021 (1:00.22), has made the most of his opportunities since then. While faltering a little in 2022, last summer was his big breakout. Keeping the Indiana breaststroke tradition alive (more on that later), Matheny came into the 100 breast, as having already qualified in the 200. 3rd at the 50 turn in the finals, Matheny used a strong last 50 to overtake Noah Nichols, finishing 2nd in 59.20 but, more importantly, under the A-standard as well.

Matheny continued the run of good form, not only making the finals of both his individual events but also picking up a gold and bronze medal from his prelim relay contributions in the men’s 4×100 medley and in the mixed 4×100 medley.

This season, Matheny spent much of it focused on short course yards, ultimately placing 6th in the 100 breast in 51.07, but did manage to pop off another sub 1:00 performance in meters when he placed 4th (59.85) at the US Open. His only other time this season was a 1:00.93 at the Indy May Cup.

While Matheny may be buoyed by his recent success, there is a strong pack of fellow 21-year-olds (some may have turned 22 since they swam their season-best times) that are right on his heels.

Matheny’s compatriot in the 200 in Fukuoka was Matt Fallon. Fallon, who swims for UPenn, may have been considered a 200 specialist, but has started to turn heads in the 100. The Fukuoka bronze medalist in the 200, Fallon set a new personal best and broke the one-minute barrier for the first time at the US Open, finishing in 5th in a time of 59.92. Since then, he placed 6th in San Antonio at 1:00.75 and recently swam 1:01.33 at a club meet in New Jersey.

Right behind Fallon at the US Open were Noah Nichols and Mitch Mason. Nichols, who placed 3rd (59.40) at the 2023 Trials, has had a strong season. He won silver at the Pan-Am Games (1:00.43), placed 6th at the US Open (1:00.22), won ACCs, and finished 4th at NCAAs. In the short time from NCAAs to now, the UVA Cavalier swam a 1:00.64 in San Antonio and 1:01.22 at an NCAP meet this past weekend, and while the times may not be as fast as some of his rivals, they are faster than his times in the lead up to last year’s trials so he should be in a good position to be under the OQT of 59.49.

LSU’s Mitch Mason was right behind Nichols at the US Open (7th—1:00.29) and finished 5th at the 2023 Trials. However, he had a disappointing NCAAs, finishing 25th in the 100. He doesn’t appear to have any results since March, so questions swirl around his participation.

“Don’t You (Forget About Me)”

Cody Miller (photo: Jack Spitser)

There are bound to be some names that don’t get mentioned and will likely be raised in the comment section, but there are a few that definitely deserve mention but being beholden to my subheadings, they just had to wait a little bit.

First and foremost of them is Cody Miller. An Indiana Breastroke U product, Miller a two-time Olympic medalist, is looking to rebound after a rough 2021 Trials, where he finished 11th in the 100 (1:00.66). Since then, Miller has been trying to rebuild his form. At the 2022 World Trials, he was 6th (1:00.68), and last summer broke 1:00 for the first time since 2020, as his time of 59.85 was good for 4th. He enters Trials with a season-best of 1:00.28 from the prelims of the US Open but hasn’t broken 1:01 since, with his most recent result being a 1:01.51 at the Indy May Cup, where he finished behind Matheny, Charlie Swanson, and Tommy Cope.

Swanson and Cope, who finished 6th and 9th last summer, are both a little behind the led pack of contenders. Despite beating Miller, Cope’s season-best rests at 1:00.93, and Swanson’s at 1:01.00. Of the two, Swanson is the only one with a PB sub-1:00, courtesy of his 59.89 from last summer, and his times this season are faster than his times in the lead-up to last summer, so he could get under 1:00 again, but will need something magical to get under the OQT.

Two new potential faces to the Olympic trials are youngster Josh Chen and NCAA champion Liam Bell. Chen, who swims for Texas Ford Aquatics and is a Harvard Commit, blasted to a new personal best of 1:00.67 to place third this past January in Knoxville after having won Junior Worlds in 1:00.70. His swims since then haven’t been under 1:02, but if he can hit his taper, then Chen is in with a chance of making the final.

Winning at NCAA title automatically vaults your name into consideration for an international team, doing so in a new NCAA record even more so, but Bell is an interesting case.  His 49.53 blew many minds in March, and his focus on weights and only swimming once or twice a week certainly paid off. However, the 100 breast in yards is a very different beast than it is in meters. You have half the pullouts and need a strong technical foundation to be able to not fall apart in the last 25 meters.  With that in mind and with a lack of results, Bell remains a mystery. He seems to have only raced once since March, posting a time of 1:01.66 at the Fran Crippen SMOC in April. He has a PB of 1:01.15 back from 2022, so if he can turn his yards drops into meters, then he could certainly factor into the final 8, but the limited results may lead to other conclusions.

“Go Big or Go Home”

While the 2023 Summer Nationals lacked semifinals, the Olympic Trials do have them, and while there are a few swimmers who may be able to coast in the prelims, the log jam of swimmers in the 1:01 range will certainly make the prelims fast. We didn’t mention Will Licon, Luke Rodarte, or Max Reich and they all swam in the B-Final last summer.

Speaking of Maxs, Max McHugh certainly has the pedigree to be included in the discussion, but his results this season just haven’t been where they need to be. Certainly, he could hit his taper and get back to near his PB of 59.57, but after missing the A-Final last summer, placing 10th in prelims at 1:00.77 (later in the summer, he went 1:00.49 at the West Fargo Futures Meet. he placed 23rd at the US Open in 1:02.58. In Westmont, he rebounded a little to place 5th in 1:01.67, but most recently, he was 1:02.48 at the Ocala Sectionals.

It could be a strategy to be under the radar and keep the pressure off but ranking outside of the top 25 of Americans, let alone the top 16, McHugh has a lot of bodies to pass in order to have a shot of making the Finals.

As for the top 8, Fink seems poised to make his first Olympic team in the event (a surprising factoid), but the fight for second will be tight. Andrew, as the reigning Trials champs and American Record holder, certainly has put up times this season to merit consideration, but he will need to be on his A-game. In 2021, Andrew added over half a second from the semis to finals and won by only .01, and with Foster hungry for the Olympics, Matheny buoyed by last year’s success, and Nichols looking to avenge his 3rd place from last summer, Andrew (and for that matter) anyone cannot afford to slip.

We’re going to give Andrew the edge to place second behind Fink. With the 100 breast occurring on Days 1 and 2, Andrew won’t have the fatigue from his other events to play a factor, as at the 2023 World Trials, it was on the fourth of five days. This is by no means a lock, however. If Braden would let me, I wouldn’t pick second place, but seeing as it’s part of the article’s requirements, I need to. If I could pick the rest of the field vs Andrew for second, I’d go field. Andrew certainly has the fastest PB, but his recent results aren’t quite on par with the 58.67 he swam right before the 2021 Trials, and Matheny’s been a full second faster this year than he was in the lead-up to Trials last year, and Foster’s season-best stands as a new personal best. This is by no means meant to be slight, but rather to emphasize that the fight for all the positions near the top is going to be close, and I like to hedge my bets. If Fink has an off-meet, he, too, could easily be on the outside looking in, so pay close attention to the prelim results to see who is feeling good.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

Dark Horse: Daniel Roy (Stanford) – A personal best of 1:00.64, wouldn’t seem to merit consideration for the A-final, but the fact that it is not only a season best but also just his third race in his comeback of nearly two years off, Roy could turn even more heads with another drop. In his short comeback already he’s ranked #5 among Americans in the 200 breast and could use the 100 as a stepping stone to challenge for a spot in the tight 200 field.